Statistics is more topical than ever. Numerous decisions depend on statistical considerations: just think of the Corona crisis or decisions about approving new drugs or other products. If researchers announce they have proved some fact using statistical tests, can we then always be sure that their claim is correct? How, and more importantly why, does statistics work? What can we expect from statistics and what not? Fact or Fluke? is not a textbook that explains statistical tests to the reader; instead, it discusses what comes before those tests: the philosophy behind the statistics. Should one carry out tests, or are there other ways to look at statistics? Ronald Meester and Klaas Slooten use a variety of examples - from court cases to theoretical physics - to present different views on statistics and provide arguments for what they think is the best point of view. This book is meant for anyone who is in some way concerned with, or interested in, statistical evidence: scientific researchers, students, teachers, mathematicians, philosophers, lawyers, managers, and no doubt many others.

This book addresses the role of statistics and probability in the evaluation of forensic evidence, including both theoretical issues and applications in legal contexts. It discusses what evidence is and how it can be quantified, how it should be understood, and how it is applied (and, sometimes, misapplied). After laying out their philosophical position, the authors begin with a detailed study of the likelihood ratio. Following this grounding, they discuss applications of the likelihood ratio to forensic questions, in the abstract and in concrete cases. The analysis of DNA evidence in particular is treated in great detail. Later chapters concern Bayesian networks, frequentist approaches to evidence, the use of belief functions, and the thorny subject of database searches and familial searching. Finally, the authors provide commentary on various recommendation reports for forensic science. Written to be accessible to a wide audience of applied mathematicians, forensic scientists, and scientifically-oriented legal scholars, this book is a must-read for all those interested in the mathematical and philosophical foundations of evidence and belief.

Many phenomena in physics, chemistry, and biology can be modelled by spatial random processes. One such process is continuum percolation, which is used when the phenomenon being modelled is made up of individual events that overlap, for example, the way individual raindrops eventually make the ground evenly wet. This is a systematic rigorous account of continuum percolation. Two models, the Boolean model and the random connection model, are treated in detail, and related continuum models are discussed. All important techniques and methods are explained and applied to obtain results on the existence of phase transitions, equality and continuity of critical densities, compressions, rarefaction, and other aspects of continuum models. This self-contained treatment, assuming only familiarity with measure theory and basic probability theory, will appeal to students and researchers in probability and stochastic geometry.

This book is the first systematic and rigorous account of continuum percolation. The authors treat two models, the Boolean model and the random connection model, in detail and discuss a number of related continuum models. Where appropriate, they make clear connections between discrete percolation and continuum percolation. All important techniques and methods are explained and applied to obtain results on the existence of phase transitions, equality of certain critical densities, continuity of critical densities with respect to distributions, uniqueness of the unbounded component, covered volume fractions, compression, rarefaction, and so on. The book is self-contained, assuming familiarity only with measure theory and basic probability theory. The approach makes use of simple ergodic theory, but the underlying geometric ideas are always made clear. Continuum Percolation will appeal to students and researchers in probability and stochastic geometry.

This book addresses the role of statistics and probability in the evaluation of forensic evidence, including both theoretical issues and applications in legal contexts. It discusses what evidence is and how it can be quantified, how it should be understood, and how it is applied (and, sometimes, misapplied). After laying out their philosophical position, the authors begin with a detailed study of the likelihood ratio. Following this grounding, they discuss applications of the likelihood ratio to forensic questions, in the abstract and in concrete cases. The analysis of DNA evidence in particular is treated in great detail. Later chapters concern Bayesian networks, frequentist approaches to evidence, the use of belief functions, and the thorny subject of database searches and familial searching. Finally, the authors provide commentary on various recommendation reports for forensic science. Written to be accessible to a wide audience of applied mathematicians, forensic scientists, and scientifically-oriented legal scholars, this book is a must-read for all those interested in the mathematical and philosophical foundations of evidence and belief.

When is a random network (almost) connected? How much information can it carry? How can you find a particular destination within the network? And how do you approach these questions - and others - when the network is random? The analysis of communication networks requires a fascinating synthesis of random graph theory, stochastic geometry and percolation theory to provide models for both structure and information flow. This book is the first comprehensive introduction for graduate students and scientists to techniques and problems in the field of spatial random networks. The selection of material is driven by applications arising in engineering, and the treatment is both readable and mathematically rigorous. Though mainly concerned with information-flow-related questions motivated by wireless data networks, the models developed are also of interest in a broader context, ranging from engineering to social networks, biology, and physics.