Intensifying geopolitical rivalries, rising defence spending and the proliferation of the latest military technology across Asia suggest that the region is set for a prolonged period of strategic contestation. None of the three competing visions for the future of Asian order - a US-led 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific', a Chinese-centred order, or the ASEAN-inspired 'Indo-Pacific Outlook' - is likely to prevail in the short to medium term. In the absence of a new framework, the risk of open conflict is heightened, and along with it the need for effective mechanisms to maintain peace and stability. As Asia's leaders seek to rebuild their economies and societies in the wake of COVID-19, they would do well to reflect upon the lessons offered by the pandemic and their applicability in the strategic realm. The societies that have navigated the crisis most effectively have been able to do so by putting in place stringent protective measures. Crisis-management and -avoidance mechanisms - and even, in the longer term, wider arms control - can be seen as the strategic equivalent of such measures, and as such they should be pursued with urgency in Asia to reduce the risks of an even greater calamity.

During the 1990s, military spending, arms procurement and defence industrialisation have all increased rapidly in East Asia. Although these developments do not constitute an arms race, they nevertheless have important implications for suppliers of defence equipment, for arms control and for regional stability. This paper assesses trends in the defence spending of East Asian states, particularly in the light of the economic crisis, which began in mid-1997. It also focuses on three closely-related issues: the nature of the regional market for defence equipment; defence industrialisation; and the effect of trends in defence procurement and industrialisation on East Asian states' military capabilities, and on the regional military balance.

Giving an overview of research and development in weaponry in the maritime and aviation sphere as well as land-based technology, this study looks forward to the effects of emerging innovations on defence policy-making.

Indonesia's democratisation since 1998 has been accompanied by armed separatist struggles in Aceh and Irian Jaya. There has also been ethnic and religious conflict in Maluku (the Spice Islands) and other provinces. At the same time, Islamic movements have grown in strength. Other states in South-East Asia and beyond are increasingly concerned over the possible security threats from these problems. Refugee crises, spreading religious and ethnic conflict, and piracy are their main worries. This book provides an up-to-date and in-depth analysis of the growing problems of the world's fourth most populous state and largest Muslim country.

Like most years in the 50-year history of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), 2008 saw events that could have significant consequences for international relations and global balances of power. These included the election of Barack Obama as US president; the brief war in Georgia, which caused the West to look at Russia with more watchful eyes; and a cataclysmic crisis in the world s financial markets that seemed to threaten globalisation and even capitalism, and to herald a period of greater economic austerity.
Even as these events occurred, the security issues and risks that have been the core focus of the work of the IISS during the past half-century continued to loom large, among them nuclear proliferation and the relations between the major powers. In addition to these perennial themes was another set of issues that has in recent times risen higher on the international security agenda, including the security ramifications of natural disasters and environmental dangers such as climate change.
In its anniversary year, the IISS held several high-level conferences around the world. Speeches given at these events addressed all of these issues, and this Adelphi Paper offers a selection of them. The speakers were statesmen, senior military officers, high officials and international security experts. All were concerned first and foremost with the pressing issues of the moment, as their duties required them to be. But the fact that they also addressed recurrent themes testifies to the enduring nature of the strategic challenges faced by policymakers.