The Japanese population is aging faster than any other in the world. The per centage of Japan's population aged 65 and above was only 7.1% in 1970, but just 30 years later, in 2000, it reached 17.2%. A declining birth rate and a rising average life expectancy will continue to push this trend further. This situation is causing serious problems for Japanese society.Structural reforms, especially tax and social security reforms, to accommodate this drastic demographic change have become an urgent policy issue. The purpose of this book is to establish guidelines for tax and social security reforms in Japan in terms that are both efficient and equitable. In this study, an extended life-cycle general equilibrium model is employed to rigorously take account of the rapidly aging Japanese population. The simulation approach adopted in our analysis permits us to calculate the effects of alternative policy packages on capital accumulation and economic welfare. This enables us to make proposals for concrete economic policies."

Policy Uncertainty and Risk presents a contribution to risk analysis and risk management in public policy and management at large. Special emphasis is put on the utilization of scientific knowledge by decision-makers in instances where knowledge in both spheres of science and administration is highly uncertain and contested. The book therefore contributes a model of science-practitioner interaction in a policy area of strong current relevance. The perspective is a realist constructivist one, which means that risk and policy are taken to be socially predicated insofar as we can choose and change the way we define and interact with its practices. It is realist insofar as we continually use such constructions to re-define and re-structure the world we live in. Although essentially theory-driven and conceptually oriented, the authors develop their argument for a new interpretation of policy-relevant science through a number of pressing case studies. These studies include the recent BSE/CJD crises in the UK, the introduction of Marine Protected Areas in Sweden, and the current practices surrounding risk management in corporate bodies. Drawing on empirical cases and theoretical explication, the book provides a number of suggestions as to how risk analysis and risk management may be more properly conceived of both from a practitioner as well as from an academic point of view.

As the demand for environmental quality is increasing and as the current GATT rules monitored by the WTO are not very suitable for environmental protection, either a new international environmental organization may be formed soon or new environmental regulations may be added to GATT. In either case, understanding of the interactions between trade and the environment will be vital. Trade and the Environment presents both the theoretical and empirical exposition of (i) the impact of trade liberalization on environmental quality; (ii) the impact of environmental regulations on international competitiveness; and (iii) strategic trade and environmental policies. An important feature of Trade and the Environment as compared to earlier books is that it brings together the reciprocal interactions between trade and the environment. It can be used as the main or complementary textbook for a course on trade and the environment.

This volume is the result of a collective effort made by its authors to reason and write about environmental policy from an empirical, rather than from a prescriptive perspective. Since the authors, like most people, care about the environment and, as professional economists or political scientists, have some expertise to offer in the area of policy-design, it was not always easy for them to keep on the intended track. Whereas they knew that it is unusual to follow a strictly empirical approach in such a 'practical' field as environmental policy, they discovered only during the effort what kind of difficulties would be encountered. Moreover, they learned that it is sometimes necessary to reason normatively in order to catch essential features of empirical reality. As it turns out, moral notions cannot entirely be neglected in political life. The predominance of homo economicus is not absolute. We feel that the effort has been worthwile and deserves to be repeated and expanded. It has been a truly co-operative project and we are very grateful to all authors for their willingness to contribute. Special gratitude we owe to Frans van Nispen and Annemarie Rima. Frans van Nispen has assisted us in every conceivable way during the preparation of this book.

In a little over one decade, the spread of market-oriented policies has turned the once so-called lesser developed countries into emerging markets. Many forces have been responsible for the tremendous growth in emerging markets. Trends toward market-oriented policies that permit private ownership of economic activities, such as public utilities and telecommunications, are part of the explanation. Corporate restructuring, following the debt crisis of the early 1980's has permitted many emerging market companies to gain international competitiveness. And an essential condition, a basic sea-change in economic policy, has opened up many emerging markets to international investors. This growth in emerging markets has been accompanied by volatility in individual markets, and a sector-wide shock after the meltdown in the Mexican Bolsa and Mexican peso, resulting in heated debate over the nature of these markets. Emerging market capital flows continue to be the subject of intense discussion around the world among investors, academics, and policymakers. Emerging Market Capital Flows examines the issues of emerging market capital flows from several distinct perspectives, addressing a number of related questions about emerging markets.

Over the past thirty years, urban economic theory has been one of the most active areas of urban and regional economic research. Just as static general equilibrium theory is at the core of modern microeconomics, so is the topic of this book - the static allocation of resources within a city and between cities - at the core of urban economic theory. An Essay on Urban Economic Theory well reflects the state of the field. Part I provides an elegant, coherent, and rigorous presentation of several variants of the monocentric (city) model - as the centerpiece of urban economic theory - treating equilibrium, optimum, and comparative statistics. Part II explores less familiar and even some uncharted territory. The monocentric model looks at a single city in isolation, taking as given a central business district surrounded by residences. Part II, in contrast, makes the intra-urban location of residential and non-residential activity the outcome of the fundamental tradeoff between the propensity to interact and the aversion to crowding; the resulting pattern of agglomeration may be polycentric. Part II also develops models of an urbanized economy with trade between specialized cities and examines how the market-determined size distribution of cities differs from the optimum. This book launches a new series, Advances in Urban and Regional Economics. The series aims to provide an outlet for longer scholarly works dealing with topics in urban and regional economics.

Rolf R. Strauch and Jiirgen von Hagen Center for European Integration Studies (ZEI), University of Bonn; ZEI, University of Bonn, Indiana University, and CEPR The large and persistent deficits, rising levels of debt and growing levels of public spending observed in many DECO economies during the past 25 years have stimulated much theoretical and empirical research on the political economy of public finance. Although a number of issues have been studied extensively, certain areas are still at an exploratory stage and need further theorizing and thorough empirical research. During the last two decades, the theoretical debate on budgeting has been dominated by the controversy between partisan and institutionalist approaches. Within the more political-science oriented, institutionalist literature, a controversy exists between the distributive and the informational perspectives, each setting forth a distinctive organizational rationale of parliaments with different fiscal implications. The papers in this volume cover these different perspectives, extend previous models, and test their empirical validity. The papers were originally written for a conference on "Institutions, Politics, and Fiscal Policy" organized by the Center for European Integration Studies at the University of Bonn, Germany, in July 1998. The book is organized in three parts each focusing on a distinctive aspect. The first part is dedicated to the partisan perspective. The second part focuses on budget institutions. The third part consists of three case studies of institutional reform of the budget process. This book is directed to academics and practitioners alike.

International Finance and Financial Crises: Essays in Honor of Robert P. Flood, Jr. contains the proceedings of a conference held in honor of Robert P. Flood, Jr. Bob Flood has made important contributions to many areas of economic analysis, including regime switching, speculative attacks, bubbles, stock market volatility, macro models with nominal rigidities, dual exchange rates, target zones, and rules versus discretion in monetary policy. Contributors were invited to address any of the topics or others of their choosing. The results include five papers on topics in international finance; two of these papers, as well as the panel discussion, focus on speculative attacks and financial crises. The other three take new directions in exploring topics in which existing models leave much to be desired.

This collection of papers is an outgrowth of the "Game Practice I" th th conference held in Genoa from 28 to 30 June 1998. More precisely, it is the result of the call for papers that was issued in association with that conference: actually, nearly half of the contributions to this book are papers that were presented in Genoa. The name chosen for the conference and for this book is in evident and provocative contrast with "Game Theory": this choice needs some explanation, and to that we shall devote a few words of this Preface. Let us say at the outset that "Game Practice" would not exist without Game Theory. As one can see, the overall content of this book is firmly rooted in the existing Game Theory. It could be hardly otherwise, given the success and influence of Game Theory (just think of the basic issues in Economic Theory), and the tremendous development that has taken place within Game Theory. This success, however, makes even more evident the existence of problems with respect to the verification of the theory. This is patent from the point of view of the predictive value of Game Theory (the "positive" side): a lot of experimental and observational evidence demon strates that there is a large gap between theory and "practice".

Organization, Performance and Equity: Perspectives on the Japanese Economy provides an analysis of key components of the Japanese economy and business structures, edited by two leading American-based Japan scholars. The contributions to this book are grouped into four major categories: organizations; income distributions; technological progress; and macro performance. The first section examines the retail sector, the role of information in evaluating distribution systems, and ownership structures and their effect on welfare, all in the context of the Japanese economy. The second section concerns issues of Japanese tax structures, growth, and income transfers, while the third section focuses on technology and productivity. The concluding section addresses major macro issues like trade and the value of the yen.

I. Until about a dozen years ago, the economic analysis of the relationship between political preferences and political demands was a rather straightforward, if dull, subject. The most common assumption was that the only political instrument available to citizens was the vote. Given this assumption, the analyst could express the outcome of the voting process in one of two ways. One possibility was to make the heroic assumptions necessary to obtain the median voter theorem, in which case, the political demands of the citizenry are simply the preferences of the median voter. The alternative was to make Arrow's Impossibility Theorem in which case even though individual preferences are well ordered, no collective preference function exists. On either of these approaches, institutions such as interest groups, political parties, or the structures ofpolitical representation played no role in the analysis. The work of "Chicago" scholars especially George Stigler, Gary Becker and Sam Peltzman took a different approach and emphasized the importanceoforganizationinmakingpoliticaldemandseffective, shifting thefocus from voting topolitical "pressure" byinterestgroups. However, in these models, voting as an instrument of political action simply disappears and the relationship between interest group pressures and electoral processes has never been clarified.

An increasing body of literature concerns the economics of those highly appreciated qualities of life that are not easily provided by market exchange. Today these problems are visible as never before, for example environmental problems. But already at the dawn of industrial society the problem had been observed by Rousseau. His statements on the economy claim to take these problems into account with due importance. In this way his economic philosophy concerns a different domain of the economy from, for example, Adam Smith's work. Rousseau's philosophy attempts to consider phenomena later labeled information asymmetries and information costs, bargaining, collective good problems. Some of Rousseau's most puzzling social proposals (on theater, women, music, etc.) can be explained by his well-argued conviction that an optimal economy demands a high social morale, a communicative morale. He proposes an economic philosophy for the most important properties of richness - such as experiencing the unique, and being free although dependent on others (empowerment). It is for the adult capable of true deliberation, not for the trifle of the innocent child. He develops a concept of richness that is close to the Aristotelian capability-concept, later explored by Amartya Sen. Rousseau's economic philosophy has not been treated in a monograph before. The book should be rewarding to those interested in social theory, the history of social and economic thought, problems at the margins of market exchange, e.g. cultural economics, environmental economics, students of Rousseau and the thought of the 18th century, welfare economic theory in the direction of Arrow or Sen, and Poanyi's and others' theses about the transition from selfsufficiency to market.

Public Technology Procurement and Innovation studies public technology procurement as an instrument of innovation policy. In the past few years, public technology procurement has been a relatively neglected topic in the theoretical and research literature on the economics of innovation. Similarly, preoccupation with 'supply-side' measures has led policy-makers to avoid making very extensive use of this important 'demand-side' instrument. These trends have been especially pronounced in the European Union. There, as this book will argue, existing legislation governing public procurement presents obstacles to the use of public technology procurement as a means of stimulating and supporting technological innovation. Recently, however, there has been a gradual re-awakening of practical interest in such measures among policy-makers in the EU and elsewhere. For these and other related measures, this volume aims to contribute to a serious reconsideration of public technology procurement from the complementary standpoints of innovation theory and innovation policy.

Investment is crucial to the development of a nations economy and welfare. In contrast to the situation in the United States, investment activity in Europe has been quite modest over the past few years. This volume gathers together a number of papers by prominent researchers in the field of investment. It provides an overview of recent developments in this area and presents new empirical findings on the determinants and implications of the investment process in European countries. Among the topics examined are the role played by taxation, uncertainty and the financial systems, as well as the relevance of corporate governance to the investment process. Two chapters are dedicated to infrastructure investment and foreign direct investment.

Setting the issue "Most economists consider the marked increase in automatic stabilizers a highly favorable development with respect to maintenance of economic stability". Besides the rare privilege of having being signed by both Milton Friedman and Paul Samuelson (Depres,Friedman, Hart, Samuelson, and Wallace [1950]), among others, this sentence expressed as soon as 1950 the consensus view on the stabilizing effect of fiscal rules governing tax revenue and public expendi tures and transfers. This positive ex ante assessment will have been confirmed ex post as part of the explanation for post war stabilization (Burns [1960], de Long and Summers [1986], Moore and Zarnovitz [1986]). However, it becomes disputed in both its positive and normative aspects. Many institutional changes since the eighties point at curbing back the transfer mechanisms underlying automatic stabilizers, and legal restraints on deficits such as the US balanced budget amendment or the European Maastricht criteria would involve serious risks for the future of stabilizers. Under such rules "the government would become, almost inevitally, a destabilizer rather than a stabilizer" said Joseph Stiglitz, quoted by the New York Times (April 1995)). "Built-in stabilizers are automatic fiscal adjustments that reduce the national income multiplier and thus cushion the effects of changes in autonomous spend ing on the level of income" (Pechman [1987]). Early analyses of the automatic fiscal stabilizers include the contributions of A. G. Hart [1945], R. Musgrave and M. Miller (1948) and E. C. Brown (1955).

THE JANUS-FACE OF RACE: REFLEC- TIONS ON ECONOMIC THEORY Patrick L. Mason and Rhonda Williams Many economists are willing to accept that race is a significant factor in US eco nomic and social affairs. Yet the professional literature displays a peculiar schizo phrenia when faced with the task of actually formulating what race means and how race works in our political economy. On the one hand, race matters when the dis cussion is focused on anti-social behavior, social choices, and undesired market outcomes. Inexplicably, African Americans are more likely to prefer welfare, lower labor force participation, and unemployment. On the other hand, race does not matter when the subject of discussion is economically productive or socially accept able activities and legal market choices (for example, wages and employment). This Janus-faced construction of race is maintained by economists' stubborn ad herence to the market power hypothesis. The market power hypothesis asserts that racial discrimination and market competition are inversely correlated. Discrimina tory behavior will persist only in those sectors of society where the competitive forces of the market are least operative. When applied to the labor market, the mar ket power hypothesis suggests that pre- and post-labor market decisions represent disjoint sets. On average, members of a disadvantaged social group may accumulate a lower amount of or a lower quality of productive attributes because of discrimina tion in marital, residential, or school choice, or because of substantial animosity in day-to-day interpersonal relations with members of a privileged group.

This book is based on a conference on 'Regulation and the Evolving Nature of Postal and Delivery Services: 1992 and Beyond' held at Village PTT, La Londe les Maures, France, on March 18, 1992. Leading practitioners, worldwide postal administrations, and the express delivery industry, as well as a number of regulators, academic economists, and lawyers examine the important policy and regulatory issues facing the postal and delivery industries. This includes such issues as: international postal policy and the role of the Universal Postal Union; regulation and terminal dues; competition, entry and the role of scale and scope economies; the nature and role of costs analysis in postal service; productivity; and service standards.

This book brings together much of the best policy-oriented research on state and local mortgage revenue bond (MRB) programs. Most of this re search was conducted to evaluate the impact of MRB subsidies on housing markets and potential home buyers. All of the research is concerned with the "so what" question often ignored by economists: it addresses the implications of the research results for public policy decisions concerning MRBs. The need for this book becomes apparent when reading the transcripts of congressional hearings on MRBs. At those hearings, the policy debate seems underinformed. Aside from discussions of the General Accounting Office's periodic evaluations of MRB programs and impassioned rebuttals by MRB proponents, the hearing testimony consists mostly of assertions and anecdotal evidence, with some "yes MRBs work" and "no they don't" exchanges. Although the research in this book may not improve the level of the policy debate on MRBs, it can inform decision makers, experts, and citizens interested in housing policy about issues that should be examined when considering the future of MRBs. Also, it can point other researchers interested in housing policy in the direction of the questions about MRB programs that need additional attention."

Contemporary Issues in Accounting Regulation looks at accounting regulation in a different way. The opening chapters explore the tension between the power of the state and the forces of the market, and other aspects of the political dimension to accounting regulation. The book also examines the process of setting accounting standards, highlighting the crucial role of standard setters in assessing the level of public support for an issue in the face of opposing positions taken by powerful interest groups. In addition, the book provides an introduction to the theoretical framework of accounting regulation, looking at choices between controversial accounting methods and at markets that are characterized by asymmetry of information and beliefs. The final chapters of the book are concerned with creative accounting, deregulation of financial reporting by smaller companies, and the link between price regulation and accounting policy choices.

The dramatic growth of international capital flow has provided unprecedented opportunities and risks in emerging markets. This book is the result of a conference exploring this phenomenon, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The issues explored include direct versus portfolio investment; exchange rates and economic growth; and optimal exchange rate policy for stabilizing inflation in developing countries. It concludes with a panel discussion on central bank coordination in the midst of exchange rate instability.

In the future, as our society becomes older and older, an increasing number of people will be confronted with Alzheimer's disease. Some will suffer from the illness themselves, others will see parents, relatives, their spouse or a close friend afflicted by it. Even now, the psychological and financial burden caused by Alzheimer's disease is substantial, most of it borne by the patient and her family. Improving the situation for the patients and their caregivers presents a challenge for societies and decision makers. Our work contributes to improving the in decision making situation con cerning Alzheimer's disease. At a fundamental level, it addresses methodo logical aspects of the contingent valuation method and gives a holistic view of applying the contingent valuation method for use in policy. We show all stages of a contingent valuation study beginning with the design, the choice of elicitation techniques and estimation methods for willingness-to-pay, the use of the results in a cost-benefit analysis, and finally, the policy implica tions resulting from our findings. We do this by evaluating three possible programs dealing with Alzheimer's disease. The intended audience of this book are health economists interested in methodological problems of contin gent valuation studies, people involved in health care decision making, plan ning, and priority setting, as well as people interested in Alzheimer's disease. We would like to thank the many people and institutions who have pro vided their help with this project.

Franklin R. Edwards Hugh T. Patrick As the 19908 unfold, we stand on the threshold of a new age of global financial markets. The seeminglyinevitable, market-driven dynamicofthe international integration of banking, securities, and futures markets is bringing about a profound transformation of financial flows and the efficiency and effectiveness of the domestic and international markets serving them. Propelled in the 1980s by a variety offorces-technological, economic, political, and (de)regulatory-the implications of international financial market integration are pervasive. This new era promises to raise a host of new public and business policy issues as well as opportunities. These include issues of financial market integrity, international competitiveness, and regulatory harmony. What will the rules of the game be? How will prudential concerns for the safety as well as the efficiency of international financial markets, and their national counterparts, be met? What are the appropriate new institutional arrangements? How and to what degree will international financial mar kets be supervised, harmonized, and regulated, and for what purposes? Whowill be makingthese decisions andimplementingthem?Thesearethe issues that confront-and bedevil-policymakers, practitioners, and scho lars alike. 1 2 INTRODUcnON The Context The 1980s were witness to major transformations of the international political, economic, andfinancial environment. Amongthe majordevelop ments was rapidly increasing international financial market integration across major nations and across financial product markets. The major sources of financial change were several, interrelated, and reinforcing."

Global Competition and Integration offers varied perspectives on the changing international economy. The book is divided into four main sections covering world trade and competition, innovation and growth, financial markets and globalization, and regulation, distribution, and the role of government.

Economic Development is but one facet of Human Development. This forces us to ask - how do humans develop? Man is a social animal and the growth of our humanity requires various social institutions, such as bureaucracy. The paradox of capitalism is that it is a system ostensibly based on self-interest yet wholly dependent on non-market values for its success. These non-market values are shaped by two much-neglected factors, religion and ethnicity. Economic Development is an applied field; whatever it claims as a conclusion should be an applicable conclusion. This requires attention to all those non-economic factors which translate economic decisions into practice - such as the forces of nationalism versus the pressures of such global powers as US foreign policy and the advice of the IMF/IBRD. Since policy is our goal, theory whose intellectual basis is inaccessible to policy makers or which fails to have application should be minimized. Mathematical models are best avoided and, if they are to be used, the burden of proof must be placed upon their proponents. As insights about the market are limited neither by time nor space, poor countries can learn from rich ones, and vice versa. It is most fruitful to focus on examples of success, such as the East Asian economies. They are the clearest illustration of the fact that rapid economic development is possible even to those who have suffered through imperialism, and possess few natural resources, but have their work and their determination intact. `One good example is enough.'

It is difficult to overstate the importance of personal consumption both to individual consumers and to the economy. While consumer&, are recognized as valuing market goods and services for the activities they can construct from them in the frameworks of several disciplines, consequences of the characteristics of goods and services they use in these activities have not been well studied. In the discourse to follow, I will contrast knowledge-yielding and conventional goods and services as factors in the construction of activities that consumers engage in when they are not in the workplace. Consumers will be seen as deciding on non-work activities and the inputs to these activities according to their objectives, and the values and cumulated skills they hold. I will suggest that knowledge content in these activities can be efficient for consumer objectives and also have important externalities through its effect on productivity at work and economic growth. The exposition will seek to elaborate these points and contribute to multi disciplinal dialogue on consumption. It takes as its starting point the contention that consumption is simultaneously an economic and social psychological process and that integration of content can contribute to explanation."