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Books > Business & Economics > Economics > Macroeconomics
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Forecasting Models for National Economic Planning (Paperback, 2nd ed. 1972)
Loot Price: R1,453
Discovery Miles 14 530
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Forecasting Models for National Economic Planning (Paperback, 2nd ed. 1972)
Series: International Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 2
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This book is about the specification of linear econometric models,
and for this reason some important related fields have been
deliberately omitted. I did not want to discuss the problems of
parameter-estimation, at least not in any detail, as there are
other books on these problems written by specialized statisticians.
This book is about the models them selves and macro-economic models
in particular. A second related sub ject is the policy decision
that can be made with the help of a model. While I did write a
chapter on policy decisions, I limited myself to some extent
because of my views on planning as such. The logical approach to
this problem is in terms of mathematical programming, but our
models and our ideas about the policies we want are too crude for
its effective utilisation. A realistic formulation of the problem
should involve non linearities in an essential way, the models I
consider (and most existing models) are linear. At the present
state of econometrics, I do not really believe in such a thing as
the 'optimal' plan. The possible result of bad planning or no
planning at all, for instance massive unemployment, sudden
financial crises, unused capital equipment, or the production of
unsalable goods is agreed to be undesirable. Programming methods
may of course be needed, if only for having a systematic algorithm
to find a solution that avoids this kind of 'obvious'
non-optimality. However, the main emphasis is on forecasting
models."
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