The thesis work was in two major parts: development and testing of
a new approach to detecting and tracking tropical cyclones in
climate models; and application of an extreme value statistical
approach to enable assessment of changes in weather extremes from
climate models. The tracking algorithm applied a creative
phase-space approach to differentiate between modeled tropical
cyclones and their mid-latitude cousins. A feature here was the
careful attention to sensitivity to choice of selection parameters,
which is considerable. The major finding was that the changes over
time were relatively insensitive to these details. This new
approach will improve and add confidence to future assessments of
climate impacts on hurricanes. The extremes approach utilized the
Generalized Pareto Distribution (one of the standard approaches to
statistics of extremes) applied to present and future hurricane
distributions as modeled by a regional climate model, then applied
the changes to current observations to extract the changes in the
extremes. Since climate models cannot resolve these extremes
directly, this provides an excellent method of determining weather
extremes in general. This is of considerable societal importance as
we are most vulnerable to such extremes and knowledge of their
changes enables improved planning and adaptation strategies.
General
Is the information for this product incomplete, wrong or inappropriate?
Let us know about it.
Does this product have an incorrect or missing image?
Send us a new image.
Is this product missing categories?
Add more categories.
Review This Product
No reviews yet - be the first to create one!
Welcome to Loot.co.za!
Sign in / Register |Wishlists & Gift Vouchers |Help | Advanced search
