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Analysis of U.S.-Mexico Sugar Trade - Impacts of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and Projections for the Future (Paperback)
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Analysis of U.S.-Mexico Sugar Trade - Impacts of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and Projections for the Future (Paperback)
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This study examines U.S.-Mexico sugar trade with special attention
given to the impact of changes in trade and market environments
caused by implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement
(NAFTA) and the introduction of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS).
These two factors contributed to shaping sugar markets in the
United States and Mexico as well as sugar trade between the two
countries. The study includes two sections: (1) a description of
the sugar markets from an historic point of view and (2) an
empirical study forecasting the market and trade outlook.In section
one, characteristics of the sugar industry and transition of the
sugar markets brought by the two factors (NAFTA and HFCS) are
presented. Adoption of HFCS shaped the U.S. sweetener market in the
1980s and a similar phenomenon appears to be beginning in Mexico.
This is explained by not only income growth but also the provisions
of NAFTA that facilitate U.S. HFCS to enter the Mexican market and
restrict Mexican sugar to the U.S. market. Although Mexico is
promised favorable access to the U.S. market under NAFTA, it has
not been successful in exporting sugar; rather, the focus has been
to suppress HFCS adoption in the domestic market.Next, an empirical
study comprised of three analyses is presented. Regression results
from the market analysis showed that the estimated price
elasticities for both sugar demand and supply are significant and
inelastic. These estimates are built into the second model that
examines bilateral trade. Results from simulations of the trade
analysis indicate Mexico's HFCS adoption rate will determine the
magnitude of Mexico's sugar export, which consequently poses a
significant influence on U.S. markets. Also the way the U.S.
government allocates quotas among exporters will have a significant
impact, particularly on the costs of the U.S. sugar program. Game
theory analysis is then used to assess what strategies the involved
participants will prefer. The results suggest that there will be a
conflict of interests and that the U.S. HFCS industry may play an
influential role in forming a sugar policy.
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