Perhaps the most important histiographic innovation of the
twentieth century was the application of the historical method to
wider and more expansive areas of the past. Where historians once
defined the study of history strictly in terms of politics and the
actions and decisions of Great Men, historians today are just as
likely to inquire into a much wider domain of the past, from the
lives of families and peasants, to more abstract realms such as the
history of mentalities and emotions. Historians have applied their
method to a wider variety of subjects; regardless of the topic,
historians ask questions, seek evidence, draw inferences from that
evidence, create representations, and subject these representations
to the scrutiny of other historians. This book severs the
historical method from the past altogether by applying that method
to a domain outside of the past. The goal of this book is to apply
history-as-method to the study of the future, a subject matter
domain that most historians have traditionally and vigorously
avoided. Historians have traditionally rejected the idea that we
can use the study of history to think about the future. The book
reexamines this long held belief, and argues that the historical
method is an excellent way to think about and represent the future.
At the same time, the book asserts that futurists should not view
the future as a scientist might-aiming for predictions and
certainties-but rather should view the future in the same way that
an historian views the past.
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