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Exchange Rate, Second Round Effects and Inflation Processes - Evidence From South Africa (Hardcover, 1st ed. 2019)
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Exchange Rate, Second Round Effects and Inflation Processes - Evidence From South Africa (Hardcover, 1st ed. 2019)
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This book focuses on the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT), second
round effects and the inflation process in South Africa. The
authors demonstrate that magnitudes of the second round effects of
the exchange rate depreciation and oil price shocks depend on
inflation regimes. The impact of positive oil price shocks on
inflation is weakened by monetary policy credibility. Evidence
shows the influence of oil price on unit labour costs and
correlation between exchange rate changes and inflation has
weakened. In addition, ERPT is reduced by low business and consumer
confidence, high trade openness, low inflation and high exchange
rate volatility which weaken real economic activity. Both monetary
and fiscal policy credibility lowers the sizes of ERPT to inflation
and inflation expectations. Fiscal policy via fuel levies,
administered prices and public transport inflation channel impacts
the responses of monetary policy to inflation shocks. The authors
show that second round effects contribute very little to wage
inflation following an exchange rate depreciation shock. Both
lending rate and household consumption responds asymmetrical to
repo rate changes. This book will appeal to policymakers, students,
academics and analysts.
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