When John Maynard Keynes likened Jan Tinbergen's early work in
econometrics to black magic and alchemy, he was expressing a widely
held view of a new discipline. However, even after half a century
of practical work and theorizing by some of the most accomplished
social scientists, Keynes' comments are still repeated today. This
book assesses the foundations and development of econometrics and
sets out a basis for the reconstruction of the foundations of
econometric inference by examining the various interpretations of
probability theory which underlie econometrics. Keuzenkamp claims
that the probabilistic foundations of econometrics are weak, and
although econometric inferences may yield interesting knowledge,
claims to be able to falsify or verify economic theories are
unwarranted. Methodological falsificationism in econometrics is an
illusion. Instead, it is argued, econometrics should locate itself
in the tradition of positivism.
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