There is, first of all, the distinction between that part of our
belief which is rational and that part which is not. If a man
believes something for a reason which is preposterous or for no
reason at all, and what he believes turns out to be true for some
reason not known to him, he cannot be said to believe it
rationally, although he believes it and it is in fact true. On the
other hand, a man may rationally believe a proposition to be
probable, when it is in fact false. -from Chapter II: Probability
in Relation to the Theory of Knowledge" His fame as an economist
aside, John Maynard Keynes may be best remembered for saying, "In
the long run, we are all dead." That phrase may well be the most
succinct expression of the theory of probability every uttered. For
a longer explanation of the premise that underlies much of modern
mathematics and science, Keynes's A Treatise on Probability is
essential reading. First published in 1920, this is the
foundational work of probability theory, which helped establish the
author's enormous influence on modern economic and even political
theories. Exploring aspects of randomness and chance, inductive
reasoning and logical statistics, this is a work that belongs in
the library of any interested in numbers and their application in
the real world. AUTHOR BIO: British economist JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES
(1883-1946) also wrote The Economic Consequences of the Peace
(1919), The End of Laissez-Faire (1926), The Means to Prosperity
(1933), and General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
(1936).
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