Suppose you had the chance to invest in a venture that succeeds
half the time. When you fail you lose your in vestment; when you
succeed you make a profit of$1.60 for every $1.00 you invest. The
odds are 8 to 5 in your favor and you should do well-casinos and
insurance companies thrive under less favorable conditions. If you
can invest as much as you like, as often as you like, using a
betting system that guarantees you can't go broke, common sense
suggests you will almost certainly make aprofitafteryou make a
large numberofinvestments. In response to yourrequest for a hot
stock yourastrologer tells you ABC Inc. will triple in a year
(she's really a fraud and picked the stock at random). But since
such stocks are rare (one in athousand) you consultan expert and,
strangely enough, he confirms the astrologer. From experience you
know that the expert diagnoses all stocks, good and bad, correctly,
90% of the time. Common sense suggests you have an excellent chance
of tripling your money. You are chairman of acommittee ofthree.
Decisions are made by majority rule but if there is no majority
your vote as chairman breaks ties. Common sense suggests you will
inevitably have more power to determine the outcome than the other
members."
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