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Asad's Autocratic Dynasty in Syria - Civil War and the Role of Regional and Global Powers (Paperback)
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Asad's Autocratic Dynasty in Syria - Civil War and the Role of Regional and Global Powers (Paperback)
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In 2011, the diplomatic and expert consensus was that Bashar
al-Asads regime would fail, causing Syria to disintegrate into
several ethnic enclaves or mini-states. A decade later and Bashar
is still in control, having defeated the rebels and gained the
support of Russia. The years of internal warfare have brought about
changes in the spectrum of parties involved in the Syrian state,
and the final outcome is inevitably going to be shaped by
geo-politics. The Alawi minority still in large measure controls
the Sunni-Muslim (Arab) majority. The other players are a gallery
of ever changing allegiances: ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra, and many other
radical Islamic groups; the Muslim Kurdish and Christian Arab
communities; as well as Shii Lebanese Hizballah. External horizon
players are Iran; Sunni Turkey and Saudi Arabia; Jewish Israel; the
United States and Russia. This study aims to analyze the agendas,
actions, and interrelations of these various actors from 2011 until
the present. It will discuss their ongoing politics and assess
forthcoming developments. Both Iran and Russia continue to support
Bashar, but compete for political, military, and economic
influence. The US has greatly reduced involvement, keeping only 900
troops in northeastern Syria, to protect its Kurdish allies and
fight against ISIS. Turkey still occupies parts of northern Syria,
with the aim of eliminating the Kurdish forces. Syrian and Russian
military attempts to conquer this area continue sporadically. The
Israeli air force has attacked Iranian and Hizballah positions with
the tacit approval of Russia. However, Russias war on Ukraine in
February 2022 may result in restricting Israeli interdictions and
instead enhance cooperation with Tehran in order to counter the US
and NATO. Both Russia and Iran have been incapable of
reconstructing the massively destroyed Syrian infrastructure; the
US and Europe are reluctant to contribute due to Bashars continued
Alawi minority-based autocratic and corrupt rule.
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