Japan will recover and its economic achievements will once again
earn the world's admiration, with sustained annual growth of three
percent, perhaps more, well within reach. This is the confident
forecast that begins Japanese Phoenix: The Long Road to Economic
Revival by the author of Japan: The System That Soured, which
several years ago accurately predicted Japan's current travails at
a time when others were prematurely pronouncing full recovery. Katz
warns however that there is bad news to go with the good. So
deep-seated are Japan's dysfunctions that, even if it did
everything right today, it would take at least five years for truly
vibrant growth to take hold. But Japan will not do everything
right. Opposition to reform is deep-seated and a myriad of vested
interests and millions of jobs are at stake. Still he notes, there
is little doubt that reform will succeed. Japanese Phoenix tells
the story of the struggle between the forces of reform and the
forces of resistance. It dissects Prime Minister Koizumi's role in
the process, and explains why Japan is in so much trouble and what
needs to be done. It explore the debates among economists and gives
a careful progress report on all the moves made so far in the name
of reform - from greater direct foreign investment, to the
financial "Big Bang", to ending one-party rule by the Liberal
Democratic Party. Katz concludes that this is just the second round
of a 15-round fight. Japan is a great nation currently trapped in
obsolete institutions. As it has before, Japan will find a way to
surmount its problems and regain its forward progress.
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