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The world has entered a period of accelerated change. This has everything to do with the disruptive events of 2020, the cognitive rewiring which each of us is going through, and the profound macro shifts reshaping the world as we know it.
We are living through an unprecedented period of rapid and pervasive transition. Every aspect of our reality is shifting, from how we work and play, to how we educate our children and care for the health and wellbeing of our families, ourselves and our neighbours. How does this affect the future of strong, dominant sectors such as tourism and travel, consumer, retail, property, education, health, automotive and financial services, among others?
Transport yourself into the future with global future strategist, speaker and disruptor Abdullah Verachia as he leads you through the fundamental shifts taking place at every level and how these will reshape the world as we know it. Envisage a new reality, new cross-border opportunities and new avenues for personal and business growth.
Unlock key insights revealed in Disruption Amplified that will inspire your own rethinking during this remarkable and transformative time, and step boldly into a new tomorrow.
Closing the Gap is an accessible overview of the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) and the impact it is set to have on various sectors in South Africa and Africa. It explores the previous industrial revolutions that have led up to this point and outlines South Africa’s position been through each one.
With a focus on artificial intelligence as a core concept in understanding the 4IR, this book uses familiar concepts to explain artificial intelligence, how it works and how it can be used in banking, mining, medicine and many other fields.
Written from an African perspective, Closing the Gap addresses the challenges and fears around the 4IR by pointing to the opportunities presented by new technologies and outlining some of the challenges and successes to date
What will South Africa look like in 2030? And how will the next fifteen years unfold?
Since leading scenario planner Frans Cronje published his bestseller A Time Traveller’s Guide to Our Next Ten Years, the country has changed rapidly. Political tensions have increased, economic performance has weakened and more and more South Africans are taking their frustrations to the street. What does this mean for the country’s future?
Cronje presents the most likely scenarios for South Africa’s future.
Sub-Saharan Africa faces three big challenges over the next generation. It will double its population to two billion by 2045. By then more than half of Africans will be living in cities. And this group of mostly young people will be connected through mobile devices.
Properly harnessed and planned for, these are positive forces for change. Without economic growth and jobs, they could prove a political and social catastrophe. Old systems of patronage and muddling through will no longer work.
Making Africa Work is a practical account of how to ensure growth beyond commodities, and to create jobs. It’s a handbook for dynamic leadership inside and outside the continent.
The Covid-19 pandemic has had an immeasurable effect on the world and redefined for us what is truly important. We’re witnessing a reversion to the basics of Maslow’s hierarchy as we find ourselves seeking to safeguard our physical, emotional, mental and spiritual wellbeing. Why? Because we no longer have the luxury of certainty.
For generations, we’ve grown up believing that studying for a defined career and securing a job would guarantee our future. This 'essential' and predictable sequence marked us as productive members of society. But is our society even a healthy one? Are we heading in the right direction or have we been blinded by collective greed and delusion? How can we justify such inequality and environmental degradation in the world? These were questions being asked even before Covid struck – and now the pandemic has accelerated a desire for change. For all the stress and disruption Covid has caused, we now have a gilt-edged opportunity to change things for the better. Now is the time for each of us to cultivate new skills, qualities and characteristics to bring about the collective future we want.
FutureNEXT plots a new way forward by combining the accessible thinking of future strategist John Sanei with the deeply thought economic and philosophical principles of Dr Iraj Abedian. The result is a book about the things we need to rethink so that we may step confidently into the future. About the new roles and responsibilities we will each have as consumers, employees, employers, entrepreneurs and executives. And ultimately about reimagining a more harmonious, systemically fair and sustainable, yet prosperous world.
Africa is a continent with boundless potential — it has the natural resources, the population, and the landmass to become a major player on the global stage. Why then, is the gap between Africa and the rest of the world increasing?
While the continent has seen improvements in terms of key indicators of human wellbeing like infant mortality and life expectancy, Africa still suffers from massive poverty, weak economic growth, de-industrialisation, an underdeveloped agricultural sector and poor regional integration, among others. What needs to be done to unleash Africa’s potential and ignite a growth revolution?
In this book, Jakkie Cilliers examines where the continent is at and where it will be in 2040 if it continues on the current path.
A new, evolutionary explanation of markets and investor behavior Half of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet economists can't agree on whether investors and markets are rational and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists believe--and as financial bubbles, crashes, and crises suggest. This is one of the biggest debates in economics and the value or futility of investment management and financial regulation hang on the outcome. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Lo cuts through this debate with a new framework, the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis, in which rationality and irrationality coexist. Drawing on psychology, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and other fields, Adaptive Markets shows that the theory of market efficiency isn't wrong but merely incomplete. When markets are unstable, investors react instinctively, creating inefficiencies for others to exploit. Lo's new paradigm explains how financial evolution shapes behavior and markets at the speed of thought--a fact revealed by swings between stability and crisis, profit and loss, and innovation and regulation. A fascinating intellectual journey filled with compelling stories, Adaptive Markets starts with the origins of market efficiency and its failures, turns to the foundations of investor behavior, and concludes with practical implications--including how hedge funds have become the Galapagos Islands of finance, what really happened in the 2008 meltdown, and how we might avoid future crises. An ambitious new answer to fundamental questions in economics, Adaptive Markets is essential reading for anyone who wants to know how markets really work.
This short primer distils Ruchir Sharma's decades of global analytic experience into ten rules for identifying nations that are poised to take off or crash. A wake-up call to economists who failed to foresee every recent crisis, including the cataclysm of 2008, 10 Rules is full of insights on signs of political, economic, and social change. Sharma explains, for example, why autocrats are bad for the economy; robots are a blessing, not a curse; and consumer prices don't tell you all you need to know about inflation. He shows how currency crises begin with the flight of knowledgeable locals, not evil foreigners; how debt crises start in private companies, not government; and why the best news for any country is none at all. Rethinking economics as a practical art, 10 Rules is a must-read for business, political and academic leaders who want to understand the most important forces that shape a nation's future.
A Financial Times book of the month It has never been more important for business leaders to look to the future. Yet, when we are living through some of the most uncertain times we have ever faced, it can feel daunting to know where to start. In Future-Proof Your Business, applied futurist Tom Cheesewright will reveal industry techniques and tools to help you: - Scan the near horizon for incoming shocks - Look to the far future to define long-term strategy - Accelerate decision-making in your business - Delegate power to the front line, speeding your response - Streamline your organisation so it's agile and can adapt to change In our uncertain times, leaders who keep their focus on the future will be the ones who prevail.
For undergraduate and graduate courses in Business Forecasting. Written in a simple, straightforward style, Business Forecasting 9/e presents basic statistical techniques using practical business examples to teach students how to predict long-term forecasts.
Wall Street Journal Best Seller (2015 Edition) Gold Medal: Non-Fiction Book Awards (2018 Edition) Winner: IPPY Book Awards Silver Medal (2018 Edition) Winner: Axiom Business Theory Silver Medal (2017 Edition) Official Selection: Gary's Book Club at CES (2017 Edition) #1 AMAZON OVERALL BUSINESS BEST SELLER (2015 Edition) What secrets can a 400-year-old Turkish cymbal maker and an Icelandic hot tub etiquette video teach you about the power of storytelling? How do Michelin-ranked food stalls in Singapore and the decline of Swiss watches force all luxury brands to rethink their business models? What insights can the world's quietest place and a clothing dye produced by former tobacco farmers reveal about serving enlightened consumers? The answers to these questions may not be all that obvious. And that's exactly the point. For the past eight years, innovation expert Rohit Bhargava and his team have predicted 15 "Non-Obvious" trends each year. In this book, get a sneak peek at the proven methods exclusively taught to thousands of executives at leading brands, organizations and governments to develop unexpected solutions to critical problems. The power of non-obvious thinking can help you see what others miss, grow your business and make a bigger impact in the world. In this all-new eighth edition, discover what more than a million readers already have: how to use the power of non-obvious thinking to grow your business and make a bigger impact in the world. In total, the Non-Obvious 2018 Edition features 15 all-new trends across 5 categories including Culture & Consumer Behavior, Marketing & Social Media, Media & Education, Technology & Design plus Economics & Entrepreneurship. The book also features a detailed section with a review and rating for more than 100 previously predicted trends - with longevity ratings for each. As with the original version, this new edition of Non-Obvious also delves into the curation process the author has used for years to build his Trend Reports and takes readers behind the scenes of trend curation (much to the delight of past readers who have been asking about this for years), and show them the methodology they can use to predict the future for themselves.
A new, evolutionary explanation of markets and investor behavior Half of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet economists can't agree on whether investors and markets are rational and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists believe. The debate is one of the biggest in economics, and the value or futility of investment management and financial regulation hangs on the answer. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Lo transforms the debate with a powerful new framework in which rationality and irrationality coexist-the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis. Drawing on psychology, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and other fields, Adaptive Markets shows that the theory of market efficiency is incomplete. When markets are unstable, investors react instinctively, creating inefficiencies for others to exploit. Lo's new paradigm explains how financial evolution shapes behavior and markets at the speed of thought-a fact revealed by swings between stability and crisis, profit and loss, and innovation and regulation. An ambitious new answer to fundamental questions about economics and investing, Adaptive Markets is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how markets really work.
Wall Street Journal Best Seller Finalist: The AMA Leonard L. Berry Book Prize Winner: The Eric Hoffer Book Award (Business) Winner: INDIE Gold Medal Book Award (Business) How are a men's grooming brand and frustrated "stuck-at-work" dads leading a revolution in masculinity post #MeToo? What can the decline of a global lingerie brand and corporate hackathons teach us about how fear can stifle innovation? How does hiring "neuro-diverse" workers and creating empathetic shampoo bottles signal a dramatic shift toward compassion in the workplace? For the past 9 years, marketing expert and Georgetown University Professor Rohit Bhargava has curated his best-selling list of non-obvious trends by asking the questions that most trend predictors miss. In this all-new ninth edition, discover what more than a million readers already have: how to use the power of non-obvious thinking to grow your business and make a bigger impact in the world. In total, the Non-Obvious 2019 edition features 15 all-new trends across 5 categories including Culture; Consumer Behavior, Marketing; Social Media, Media & Education, Technology; Design plus Economics; Entrepreneurship. The book also features a detailed section with a review and rating for more than 115 previously predicted trends, with longevity ratings for each. As with the original version, this new edition of Non-Obvious also delves into the curation process the author has used for years to build his Trend Reports and takes readers behind the scenes of trend curation (much to the delight of past readers who have been asking about this for years), and show them the methodology they can use to predict the future for themselves.
This Handbook provides an authoritative and in-depth overview of the essential topics related to the increasingly important field of choice modelling: a key tool for the understanding of behaviour and used to support decision-making across many areas such as transportation, health economics, environmental analysis and marketing. The Handbook of Choice Modelling, composed of contributions from senior figures in the field, summarizes the essential analytical techniques and discusses the key current research issues. The book opens with Nobel Laureate Daniel McFadden calling for deeper engagement with more behavioural and psychological fields, and this is followed by supporting chapters on behavioural economics and mathematical psychology. Further chapters explore the elicitation of data and the context of observation; inter-personal variation; the modelling of complex choice processes taking account of heterogeneity; extending the models to deal with more complex choices; statistical processes for the understanding of data; and finally the practical application of these methods. A final group of chapters discusses the research needs of specific application areas. Offering a unique collection of contributions from many of the top researchers in choice modelling, this Handbook provides essential reading for academics, students and practitioners in a wide range of areas.
The book focuses on three main themes: * overpopulation associated with low productivity, unemployment, persistent poverty and weak savings and investment capacity * the post-1950 development strategies and their outcomes * the institutional structures that are constraining economic and political progress. Egypt in the Twenty First Century is a much needed investigation into the long-term economic reform and restructuring and examines the challenges ahead for the country. It provides authoritative analyses from a collection of respected academics and a wealth of new data. It will appeal to all those interested in the political economy of contemporary Egypt. agriculture, industry and political systems.
This is a book is for leaders, to aid their practice in strategy, decision making and change - it's a very practical (field) guide to foresight and foresight tools. It's aimed at leaders in manufacturing, service, non-profit, government and fourth sector organisations. Strategic Foresight is a set of skills and tools used to explore potential futures exercising your 'futures muscles' so that you are able to plan for and take advantage of these possible futures. The book first explores how we think about the future, looking at ambiguity and uncertainty and how these play a role in our ability to think into the future. It introduces a simple model of preferred thinking styles and talks about the 'baggage' and values that form our perceptions. The next section covers models, tools and maps that people will find useful for developing their own Foresight and using this knowledge to make decisions, whilst uncovering innovation and creativity to turn this Foresight knowledge to competitive advantage. This is not a comprehensive list - just a selection of the most effective tools with their use and case studies that are easy and effective to use. The next two sections cover: How to identify emerging trends; what impact they may have on your business; the strategic importance of early recognition; and how to apply the knowledge in your business. Harnessing Foresight as a spring board for innovation and creativity to develop new paradigms and take advantage of what may come. Finally, the author pulls it all together by showing how to develop a practical method of exploring potential futures in the context of your existing business in order to take robust decisions and develop strategies that help you work towards your preferred future. Case studies are interspersed throughout the book to illustrate the points made along with exercises, where appropriate, to encourage people to 'think along' with the ideas and new ways of approaching Strategic Foresight.
For junior/senior undergraduates in a variety of fields such as economics, business administration, applied mathematics and statistics, and for graduate students in quantitative masters programs such as MBA and MA/MS in economics. A student-friendly approach to understanding forecasting. Knowledge of forecasting methods is among the most demanded qualifications for professional economists, and business people working in either the private or public sectors of the economy. The general aim of this textbook is to carefully develop sophisticated professionals, who are able to critically analyze time series data and forecasting reports because they have experienced the merits and shortcomings of forecasting practice.
This authoritative and wide-ranging collection presents over fifty of the most important articles on forecasting - a technique that lies at the heart of economic policy and decision-making. This comprehensive two volume set presents the major papers in macroeconomic forecasting and policy making; time series forecasting; the econometrics of forecasting; forecast evaluation; forecasting with leading indicators; forecasting in finance and economic forecasting using surveys.
Modern evolutionary economics is now nearly two decades old and in this excellent book, a distinguished group of evolutionary economists identify the most important developments and discuss the direction of future research. By moving away from traditional concerns with the operation of selection mechanisms towards a preoccupation with the manner in which the novelty and variety provide fuel for such mechanisms, the authors identify a key development in the field. Evolutionary economists have been drawn into the modern complexity science literature which attempts to provide an understanding of how and why 'complex adaptive systems' engage in processes of self-organization. The goal is to provide an integrated analysis of both selection and self-organization that is uniquely economic in orientation. After a brief overview of the many key achievements and continuing challenges, the first part of the book deals with theoretical perspectives, discussing institutional change, social constructions, complexity, selection and self-selection and the usefulness of theory. Part two deals with empirical perspectives and includes discussion of replicator dynamics, the measurement of heterogeneity and complexity, and modelling organizations as complex adaptive systems. This unique book will appeal to evolutionary and industrial economists and policymakers involved with issues of innovation and management scientists.
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