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Books > Business & Economics > Economics > Economic forecasting

The Theory of Futures Trading (Routledge Revivals) (Paperback): Barry Goss The Theory of Futures Trading (Routledge Revivals) (Paperback)
Barry Goss
R500 Discovery Miles 5 000 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

First published in 1972, this book provides an important critical review on the theory of futures trading. B. A. Goss looks at the work and ideas of Keynes and Hicks on futures, and considers how these have also been developed by Kaldor. He discusses the evolution of the concept of hedging in the context of buying forward into the markets, and considers theories of market and individual equilibrium. Goss draws on the work of other economists in this field, including Stein, Telser, Peston and L. L. Johnson, in order to illustrate the development of theory in futures trading. The book includes fifteen figures that illustrate diagrammatically the concepts involved, and the concluding section contains a series of problems for examination by the student.

Learning from the Future - Competetive Foresight Scenarios (Hardcover): L Fahey Learning from the Future - Competetive Foresight Scenarios (Hardcover)
L Fahey
R1,507 R1,113 Discovery Miles 11 130 Save R394 (26%) Ships in 12 - 17 working days

"Scenarios are now a part of every successful manager’s toolkit. This book is the first comprehensive guide to the latest developments in scenario thinking written by today’s leading practitioners in the field." —Napier Collyns, a pioneer of scenario planning at Dutch/Shell now Managing Director, Gloal Business Network (GBN) "In twenty years of helping companies create and plan for their futures, I have never come across a book that dealt with the use of scenario-based planning as comprehensively as this one." —David Kelley CEO, IDEO Product Development the creators of the Apple Mouse "This book is the greatest reference today on scenario planning—the preeminent tool for those who believe that the future belongs to those with the imagination to create it. The combination of scenario planning and strategy formulation can be a wondrous right brain process that galvanizes teams with a compelling vision and common purpose." —David E. Schnedler Director, Corporate Planning Sun Microsystems, Inc. "Organizations must create intellectual and organizational tension around distinctly different views of the future. Learning from the Future demonstrates why scenarios are ideally suited to generate such tension and how to use scenario learning as a steppingstone to superior strategies." —Richard Pascale, Associate Fellow of Oxford University and author of Managing on the Edge: How the Smartest Companies Use Conflict to Stay Ahead "An invaluable guide to the mind-stretching benefits of scenarios that are fully embedded in the strategic thinking process. It should be required reading for any management team embarking on scenario development so they can realize the benefits and evade the pitfalls." —George Day, Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor and Director of the Huntsman Center for Global Competition and Innovation Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

Practical Business Forecasting (Hardcover): M.K. Evans Practical Business Forecasting (Hardcover)
M.K. Evans
R2,598 Discovery Miles 25 980 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Stressing the concrete applications of economic forecasting, "Practical Business Forecasting "is accessible to a wide-range of readers, requiring only a familiarity with basic statistics. The text focuses on the use of models in forecasting, explaining how to build practical forecasting models that produce optimal results. In a clear and detailed format, the text covers estimating and forecasting with single and multi- equation models, univariate time-series modeling, and determining forecasting accuracy. Additionally, case studies throughout the book illustrate how the models are actually estimated and adjusted to generate accurate forecasts. After reading this text, students and readers should have a clearer idea of the reasoning and choices involved in building models, and a deeper foundation in estimating econometric models used in practical business forecasting.

Data and models are are available at: http: //www.blackwellpublishing.com/evans/

Quantitative Analysis in Marketing Management (Paperback): L. Moutinho Quantitative Analysis in Marketing Management (Paperback)
L. Moutinho
R1,706 Discovery Miles 17 060 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Quantitative marketing is not an easy subject to grasp. Quantitative Analysis in Marketing Management introduces a kinder, gentler approach to the various quantitative concepts and techniques in marketing management. This exciting new book examines techniques drawn from other management disciplines (e.g. financial management and operations management) and shows how these techniques can be applied to marketing management. To aid comprehension, a number of problems and case studies are included at the end of each chapter. The text is divided into three parts:

  • statistics, demand analysis and forecasting;
  • financial analysis, operations and control systems; and
  • future trends
Quantitative Analysis in Marketing Management is suitable for undergraduate and MBA students enrolled in marketing management, market analysis and forecasting, strategic marketing, marketing research courses, together with MSc marketing courses.
The Signal and the Noise - Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't (Paperback): Nate Silver The Signal and the Noise - Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't (Paperback)
Nate Silver 1
R551 R431 Discovery Miles 4 310 Save R120 (22%) Ships in 12 - 17 working days

UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade." -The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.

Agricultural Price Analysis and Forecasting (Paperback): J.W. Goodwin Agricultural Price Analysis and Forecasting (Paperback)
J.W. Goodwin
R5,194 Discovery Miles 51 940 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Uses a problem solving framework to provide students with the means for acquiring the necessary skills in the application of economic theory. Enables them to understand that economic theory does describe authentic relationships by actual people in the existing world.

The Cloud Revolution - How the Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and A Roaring 2020s... The Cloud Revolution - How the Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and A Roaring 2020s (Hardcover)
Mark P. Mills
R697 Discovery Miles 6 970 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

The conventional wisdom on how technology will change the future is wrong. Mark Mills lays out a radically different and optimistic vision for what's really coming. The mainstream forecasts fall into three camps. One considers today as the "new normal," where ordering a ride or food on a smartphone or trading in bitcoins is as good as it's going to get. Another foresees a dystopian era of widespread, digitally driven job- and business-destruction. A third believes that the only technological revolution that matters will be found with renewable energy and electric cars. But according to Mills, a convergence of technologies will instead drive an economic boom over the coming decade, one that historians will characterize as the "Roaring 2020s." It will come not from any single big invention, but from the confluence of radical advances in three primary technology domains: microprocessors, materials, and machines. Microprocessors are increasingly embedded in everything. Materials, from which everything is built, are emerging with novel, almost magical capabilities. And machines, which make and move all manner of stuff, are undergoing a complementary transformation. Accelerating and enabling all of this is the Cloud, history's biggest infrastructure, which is itself based on the building blocks of next-generation microprocessors and artificial intelligence. We've seen this pattern before. The technological revolution that drove the great economic expansion of the twentieth century can be traced to a similar confluence, one that was first visible in the 1920s: a new information infrastructure (telephony), new machines (cars and power plants), and new materials (plastics and pharmaceuticals). Single inventions don't drive great, long-cycle booms. It always takes convergent revolutions in technology's three core spheres-information, materials, and machines. Over history, that's only happened a few times. We have wrung much magic from the technologies that fueled the last long boom. But the great convergence now underway will ignite the 2020s. And this time, unlike any previous historical epoch, we have the Cloud amplifying everything. The next long boom starts now.

It's Not as Bad as You Think - Why Capitalism Trumps Fear and the Economy Will Thrive (Hardcover): BS Wesbury It's Not as Bad as You Think - Why Capitalism Trumps Fear and the Economy Will Thrive (Hardcover)
BS Wesbury
R578 R447 Discovery Miles 4 470 Save R131 (23%) Ships in 12 - 17 working days

An upbeat antidote to the gloom and doom forecasts of the financial future

Just about everyone is worried about the economy and markets. And the fear is that they will stay down for a long time. But a few brave voices say that the gloom and doom forecasts are just too pessimistic. Reality is that entrepreneurs don't give up. History is pretty clear, every time the economy is thought to be done, worn out, finished, it bounces back and heads to new highs. In fact, the economy and the markets-counter to conventional wisdom-have started to improve in the first half of 2009. Even housing is showing some signs of life.

With "It's Not as Bad as You Think, "Brian Wesbury, ranked as one of the top economic forecasters by the "Wall Street Journal" and "USA Today, " shows you that while the financial future may be hard to predict, it will ultimately be profitable over the long haul. In this easy-to-follow and engaging forecast of the future, Wesbury takes a look at the good, the bad, and the ugly-and debunks the pouting pundits of pessimism to show you how to prosper now and in the future.An optimistic look at the economy and the markets written by one of today's foremost financial forecastersPresents a roadmap to seek opportunities in all the panicShows you how to analyze economic indicators and government policy to grow your wealth so you don't lose by hiding under the bed

A breath of fresh air, Wesbury's objectivity and optimism provide welcome relief to the daily bad news stories, as he sets us all up to capitalize on tomorrow's great possibilities.

An Introduction to Technological Forecasting (Hardcover): Joseph P. Martino An Introduction to Technological Forecasting (Hardcover)
Joseph P. Martino
R3,028 Discovery Miles 30 280 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Originally published in 1972 this book examines technological forecasting and assesses its merits and limitations and possible uses for society, government, industry and the military. Although technological forecasting was in its infancy when this book was originally published, it has now become part of mainstream social and economic planning.

Handbook Of Applied Econometrics And Statistical Inference (Hardcover): Aman Ullah Handbook Of Applied Econometrics And Statistical Inference (Hardcover)
Aman Ullah
R8,977 Discovery Miles 89 770 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Summarizes the latest developments and techniques in the field and highlights areas such as sample surveys, nonparametric analysis, hypothesis testing, time series analysis, Bayesian inference, and distribution theory for current applications in statistics, economics, medicine, biology, engineering, sociology, psychology, and information technology. Containing more than 800 contemporary references to facilitate further study, the Handbook of Applied Econometrics and Statistical Inference is an in-depth guide for applied statisticians, econometricians, economists, sociologists, psychologists, data analysts, biometricians, medical researchers, and upper-level undergraduate and graduate-level students in these disciplines.

Electricity Cost Modeling Calculations - Regulations, Technology, and the Role of Renewable Energy (Hardcover, 2nd edition):... Electricity Cost Modeling Calculations - Regulations, Technology, and the Role of Renewable Energy (Hardcover, 2nd edition)
Monica Greer
R2,958 Discovery Miles 29 580 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Reducing greenhouse gases and increasing the use of renewable energy continue to be critical goals for the power industry and electrical engineers to promote energy cost reductions. Engineers and researchers must keep up to date with the evolution of the power system sector, new energy regulations, and how different pricing techniques apply in today's market. Electricity Cost Modeling Calculations, Second Edition delivers an updated view on pricing models, regulation, technology and the role renewable energy is starting to take in electricity. Starting with fundamental concepts relating to market structure, an increase in international regulations is added to expand the engineer's knowledge. Cubic cost modeling and new modeling cases are included along with updated literature reviews for deeper research. The reference then extends into more advanced quantitative methods such as updated rate designs, and a new chapter is included on the marginal cost pricing of electricity in the United States with applications to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, making the reference relevant for today's power markets. This book provides engineers with a practical guide on the latest techniques in electricity pricing and applications for today's markets.

Electric Utility Resource Planning - Past, Present and Future (Paperback): Joe Ferrari Electric Utility Resource Planning - Past, Present and Future (Paperback)
Joe Ferrari
R2,596 Discovery Miles 25 960 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Electric Utility Resource Planning: Past, Present and Future covers the balance of renewable costs, energy storage, and flexible backstop mechanisms needed in electric utility resource planning. In addition, it covers the optimization of planning methodologies and market design. The book argues that net load, ramping and volatility concerns associated with renewables call into question the validity of almost a century of planning approaches. Finally, it suggests that accounting for flexibility helps optimize the efficiency of the entire fleet of assets, minimizing costs and CO2 generation simultaneously, concluding that a flexible, independent backstop mechanism is needed, regardless of renewables or storage. Case studies provide a mix of hypothetical "what if" scenarios and analyses of real-life utility portfolios drawn from international examples.

Business Forecasting - A Practical Approach (Paperback, 2 Revised Edition): A. Reza Hoshmand Business Forecasting - A Practical Approach (Paperback, 2 Revised Edition)
A. Reza Hoshmand
R1,933 Discovery Miles 19 330 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

The information age has brought greater interconnection across the world, and transformed the global marketplace. To remain competitive, business firms look for ways of improving their ability to gauge business and economic conditions around the world. At the same time, advances in technology have revolutionized the way we process information and prepare business and economic forecasts. Secondary data searches, data collection, data entry and analysis, graphical visualization, and reporting can all be accomplished with the help of computers that provide access to information not previously available. Forecasters should therefore learn the techniques and models involved, as applied in this new era. Business Forecasting: A Practical Approach is intended as an applied text for students and practitioners of forecasting who have some background in economics and statistics. The presentation is conceptual in nature with emphasis on rationale, application, and interpretation of the most commonly used forecasting techniques. The goal of this book is to provide students and managers with an overview of a broad range of techniques and an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. It is based on the assumption that forecasting skills are best developed and retained by starting with simple models, followed by repeated exposure to real world examples. The book makes extensive use of international examples to amplify concepts.

Asian Economic & Political Issues - Volume 15 (Hardcover): Alexandra M. Columbus Asian Economic & Political Issues - Volume 15 (Hardcover)
Alexandra M. Columbus
R5,140 R4,880 Discovery Miles 48 800 Save R260 (5%) Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Asia has entered the 21st century as an economic superpower and is inevitably also becoming a political superpower. This evolution is the subject of this continuing series which includes in its scope the entire spectrum of contemporary politics and economics of Asia. The coverage is intended to deal with Asia, its political dynamics, economic policies, institutions and its future. It discusses topics that include: U.S.-South Korea relations; trade promotion authority and the Korea Free Trade Agreement; China's military modernisation efforts; U.S.-Vietnam economic and trade relations; and, U.S.-China trade relations and China's currency policy.

Human Frontiers - The Future of Big Ideas in an Age of Small Thinking (Paperback): Michael Bhaskar Human Frontiers - The Future of Big Ideas in an Age of Small Thinking (Paperback)
Michael Bhaskar
R343 R281 Discovery Miles 2 810 Save R62 (18%) Ships in 9 - 15 working days

'A fascinating book . . . Bhaskar is a reassuringly positive and often witty guide' Observer 'A fascinating, must-read book covering a vast array of topics from the arts to the sciences, technology to policy. This is a brilliant and thought-provoking response to one of the most critical questions of our age: how we will come up with the next generation of innovation and truly fresh ideas?' Mustafa Suleyman, cofounder of DeepMind and Google VP 'Have "big ideas" and big social and economic changes disappeared from the scene? Michael Bhaskar's Human Frontiers is the best look at these all-important questions.' Tyler Cowen, author of The Great Stagnation and The Complacent Class 'Michael Bhaskar explores the disturbing possibility that a complacent, cautious civilization has lost ambition and is slowly sinking into technological stagnation rather than accelerating into a magical future. He is calling for bold, adventurous innovators to go big again. A fascinating book' Matt Ridley, author of How Innovation Works Where next for humanity? Is our future one of endless improvement in all areas of life, from technology and travel to medicine, movies and music? Or are our best years behind us? It's easy to assume that the story of modern society is one of consistent, radical progress, but this is no longer true: more academics are researching than ever before but their work leads to fewer breakthroughs; innovation is incremental, limited to the digital sphere; the much-vaunted cure for cancer remains elusive; space travel has stalled since the heady era of the moonshot; politics is stuck in a rut, and the creative industries seem trapped in an ongoing cycle of rehashing genres and classics. The most ambitious ideas now struggle. Our great-great-great grandparents saw a series of transformative ideas revolutionise almost everything in just a few decades. Today, in contrast, short termism, risk aversion, and fractious decision making leaves the landscape timid and unimaginative. In Human Frontiers, Michael Bhaskar draws a vividly entertaining and expansive portrait of humanity's relationship with big ideas. He argues that stasis at the frontier is the result of having already pushed so far, taken easy wins and started to hit limits. But new thinking is still possible. By adopting bold global approaches, deploying cutting edge technology like AI and embracing a culture of change, we can push through and expand afresh. Perfect for anyone who has wondered why we haven't gone further, this book shows in fascinating detail how the 21st century could stall - or be the most revolutionary time in human history.

Data Science for Supply Chain Forecasting (Paperback, 2nd ed.): Nicolas Vandeput Data Science for Supply Chain Forecasting (Paperback, 2nd ed.)
Nicolas Vandeput
R1,374 R1,079 Discovery Miles 10 790 Save R295 (21%) Ships in 10 - 15 working days

Using data science in order to solve a problem requires a scientific mindset more than coding skills. Data Science for Supply Chain Forecasting, Second Edition contends that a true scientific method which includes experimentation, observation, and constant questioning must be applied to supply chains to achieve excellence in demand forecasting. This second edition adds more than 45 percent extra content with four new chapters including an introduction to neural networks and the forecast value added framework. Part I focuses on statistical "traditional" models, Part II, on machine learning, and the all-new Part III discusses demand forecasting process management. The various chapters focus on both forecast models and new concepts such as metrics, underfitting, overfitting, outliers, feature optimization, and external demand drivers. The book is replete with do-it-yourself sections with implementations provided in Python (and Excel for the statistical models) to show the readers how to apply these models themselves. This hands-on book, covering the entire range of forecasting-from the basics all the way to leading-edge models-will benefit supply chain practitioners, forecasters, and analysts looking to go the extra mile with demand forecasting.

The Fortune Sellers - The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions (Hardcover): William A. Sherden The Fortune Sellers - The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions (Hardcover)
William A. Sherden
R1,077 R811 Discovery Miles 8 110 Save R266 (25%) Ships in 12 - 17 working days

"An ambitious, intelligent, and very readable guide to understanding our present and our future." —Harry Beckwith, Principal, Beckwith Advertising and Marketing and author of Selling the Invisible

No one can foretell the future. Or can they? There are many who purport to —and they are making a fortune. From meteorologists who give us our daily weather forecasts to investment advisers who project tomorrow's hottest stock, these and numerous other prognosticating professionals are part of a multibillion-dollar industry that's growing every day. No longer merely fortunetellers, they are fortune sellers, offering us a commodity we're more than eager to buy: the future.

In this piercing and provocative exposé, William Sherden, a seasoned consultant and expert on business forecasting, casts an unblinking eye on the booming business of predicting the future, from its major players to the ultimate validity and value of the information they proffer. Debunking false prophecy and analyzing assertions of forecasting skill, Sherden separates fact from fallacy to show us not only how best to use the forecasts we're given, but how to "select the nuggets of valuable future advice from amongst the $200 billion worth of mostly erroneous future predictions put forth each year."

The Fortune Sellers contains in-depth explorations of the seven most prevalent forecasting professions today —meteorology, economics, investments, technology assessment, demography, futurology, and organizational planning. As Sherden uncovers their historical roots and traces their track records, he deftly reveals just how accurate —or inaccurate —their predictions really are. Fascinating historical facts, scores of actual examples, and a wealth of eye-opening statistics illuminate the difference between reliable real-world information and spurious guesswork. In The Fortune Sellers, you'll discover how:

  • Anyone who is counting on a weather forecast more than a day or two in advance might just as well flip a coin
  • Economics earned its nickname —the "dismal science" —and why it sticks
  • Profits from prediction work on Wall Street
  • Academia, business, and the media feed our fascination with science fact and fiction and future technology
  • Futurists —predictors of societal change —use the infirm foundations of social science to predict everything from utopia to techno-totalitarianism
  • Prognosticators failed to predict many milestone events, including the stock market crash of 1929, the recession of the 1980s, and the fall of East Berlin.

An intriguing and utterly fascinating exploration of the methods and the madness of today's growing number of future "experts," The Fortune Sellers is not to be missed —and that's no speculation.

Market Magic: Riding the Greatest Bull Market of t the Century (Hardcover, New): L Yamada Market Magic: Riding the Greatest Bull Market of t the Century (Hardcover, New)
L Yamada
R1,277 R951 Discovery Miles 9 510 Save R326 (26%) Ships in 12 - 17 working days

She's been compared to a beacon shining through the fog. Her thorough research, meticulous analyses, and extraordinarily accurate forecasts have won her the respect and admiration of colleagues up and down the Street. A protégée of the master technical analyst Alan Shaw, she is currently Senior Technical Analyst, Vice President for Research at Salomon Smith Barney. But what some insiders remember most about Louise Yamada is that in 1994 she was among the very first to predict the greatest bull market of the twentieth century.

In Market Magic, Louise Yamada shares her formidable skills to look beyond the daily noise of trading and help guide your investments through the perils and uncertainties of the next ten years. At a time when classical forecasting techniques seem to be failing us and even the professionals are at a loss as to which way the markets will go, Yamada marshals her experience and talent to offer on-target analyses of today's macro forces and specific trend forecasts for the next decade.

Reading this book, you will understand why her weekly reports on various markets are so eagerly awaited by investors everywhere. Yamada describes what she saw in 1994 that led her to argue for an extended bull market. In addition, she describes her "two-tier market thesis" and explains why U.S. equities with global exposure have outperformed domestically focused stocks and why this trend should continue into the future.

Yamada reveals how macro changes in U.S. demographics have subtly altered the business and investment landscapes, and how these demographic shifts are impacting the stock market in ways that have been largely unnoticed. Her case for an extension of this bull market into the next century is must reading for all serious (and nervous) investors. Firm in her belief that new technology will continue to drive the economy, Yamada identifies the industries and business sectors she believes will thrive under its expanding influence.

Market Magic offers a fresh perspective on the new and emerging realities. Forging links between the forces that will be at work in the future, Louise Yamada reveals a thought-provoking scenario for the market's next ten years, and details how investors can track its course through technical analysis. Market Magic is an enlightening analysis of the big picture from one of the best minds in the investment community.

"Few on Wall Street can match Louise Yamada for analytical ability as well as insight on the big issues affecting investors. We are fortunate she is willing to share the results of her thoughts and research with us." —Mark Haines, CNBC.

"Louise Yamada has a special talent for anticipating future financial trends. Market Magic is a must read for investors as we prepare for the exciting decade ahead." —David Cork, F.C.S.I. author of The Pig and the Python: How to Prosper from the Aging Baby Boom.

"Market Magic demystifies the voodoo of technical analysis and relates technical indicators to the real world of stocks and bonds and demographic and economic trends worldwide." —Oscar S. Schafer, General Partner Cumberland Associates; Member, Barron's Roundtable.

Africa First! - Igniting a Growth Revolution (Paperback): Jakkie Cilliers Africa First! - Igniting a Growth Revolution (Paperback)
Jakkie Cilliers
R342 R280 Discovery Miles 2 800 Save R62 (18%) Ships in 9 - 15 working days

'A roadmap that could turn Africa's potential into prosperity.' - President Cyril Ramaphosa What stops Africa, with its abundant natural resources, from capitalising on its boundless potential? Africa analyst Jakkie Cilliers uses 11 scenarios to unpack, in concrete terms, how the continent can ignite a growth revolution that will take millions out of poverty and into employment. Africa urgently needs much more rapid economic growth. Cilliers identifies and models fundamental transitions required in agriculture, education, demographics, manufacturing and governance and shows how these changes can be brought about. The challenges the continent faces - competing in a globalised world, delivering health care and education, feeding growing populations and grappling with climate change - demand far-sighted policies and determined leadership. Cilliers offers achievable solutions based on African realities. Authoritative and engaging, this work offers a roadmap for how Africa can catch up with the rest of the world.

Human Frontiers - The Future of Big Ideas in an Age of Small Thinking (Paperback): Michael Bhaskar Human Frontiers - The Future of Big Ideas in an Age of Small Thinking (Paperback)
Michael Bhaskar
R475 R392 Discovery Miles 3 920 Save R83 (17%) Ships in 9 - 15 working days

'A fascinating, must-read book covering a vast array of topics from the arts to the sciences, technology to policy. This is a brilliant and thought-provoking response to one of the most critical questions of our age: how we will come up with the next generation of innovation and truly fresh ideas?' Mustafa Suleyman, cofounder of DeepMind and Google VP 'Have "big ideas" and big social and economic changes disappeared from the scene? Michael Bhaskar's Human Frontiers is the best look at these all-important questions.' Tyler Cowen, author of The Great Stagnation and The Complacent Class 'Michael Bhaskar explores the disturbing possibility that a complacent, cautious civilization has lost ambition and is slowly sinking into technological stagnation rather than accelerating into a magical future. He is calling for bold, adventurous innovators to go big again. A fascinating book' Matt Ridley, author of How Innovation Works Where next for humanity? Is our future one of endless improvement in all areas of life, from technology and travel to medicine, movies and music? Or are our best years behind us? It's easy to assume that the story of modern society is one of consistent, radical progress, but this is no longer true: more academics are researching than ever before but their work leads to fewer breakthroughs; innovation is incremental, limited to the digital sphere; the much-vaunted cure for cancer remains elusive; space travel has stalled since the heady era of the moonshot; politics is stuck in a rut, and the creative industries seem trapped in an ongoing cycle of rehashing genres and classics. The most ambitious ideas now struggle. Our great-great-great grandparents saw a series of transformative ideas revolutionise almost everything in just a few decades. Today, in contrast, short termism, risk aversion, and fractious decision making leaves the landscape timid and unimaginative. In Human Frontiers, Michael Bhaskar draws a vividly entertaining and expansive portrait of humanity's relationship with big ideas. He argues that stasis at the frontier is the result of having already pushed so far, taken easy wins and started to hit limits. But new thinking is still possible. By adopting bold global approaches, deploying cutting edge technology like AI and embracing a culture of change, we can push through and expand afresh. Perfect for anyone who has wondered why we haven't gone further, this book shows in fascinating detail how the 21st century could stall - or be the most revolutionary time in human history.

Forecasting Financial Markets - Exchange Rates, Interest Rates & Asset Management (Hardcover): C. Dunis Forecasting Financial Markets - Exchange Rates, Interest Rates & Asset Management (Hardcover)
C. Dunis
R3,100 Discovery Miles 31 000 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Today’ s financial markets are characterised by a large number of participants, with different appetites for risk, different time horizons, different motivations and reactions to unexpected news. The mathematical techniques and models used in the forecasting of financial markets have therefore grown ever more sophisticated as traders, analysts and investors seek to gain an edge on their competitors. Written by leading international researchers and practitioners, this book focuses on three major themes of today’ s state of the art financial research: modelling with high frequency data, the information content of volatility markets, and applications of neural networks and genetic algorithms to financial time series. Forecasting Financial Markets includes empirical applications to present the very latest thinking on these complex techniques, including:

  • High frequency exchange rates

  • Intraday volatility

  • Autocorrelation and variance ratio tests

  • Conditional volatility

  • GARCH processes

  • Chaotic systems

  • Nonlinearity

  • Stochastic and EXPAR models

  • Artificial neural networks

  • Genetic algorithms
Trading Without Fear  - Eliminating Emotional Decisions with Arms Trading Strategies (Hardcover): R Arms Trading Without Fear - Eliminating Emotional Decisions with Arms Trading Strategies (Hardcover)
R Arms
R2,053 R1,479 Discovery Miles 14 790 Save R574 (28%) Ships in 12 - 17 working days

"The key to investment success, if there be just one, is the ability to remain emotionally detached. That detachment is only achieved through confidence. That confidence is only arrived at through knowledge. That knowledge is arrived at through thought, study, hard work, and experience. In this book, I will try to impart the knowledge and experience I have acquired over the last thirty years." — Richard Arms from the Introduction to Trading Without Fear

Richard Arms' revolutionary theories have changed the way investors perceive the market. His expertise in the field of technical analysis has had significant impact, evidenced by the fact that his Equivolume charting system is now part of the most popular stock and futures software, and his Arms Index—also known as the Short-Term Trading Index or TRIN—has become one of the most important technical tools of Wall Street.

In Trading Without Fear, Richard Arms shows investors how to make sound investment decisions "without succumbing to those two very powerful emotions": fear and greed. Learning to control those emotions in ourselves—while recognizing them in others—empowers us to capitalize on that knowledge. The result is informed investment choices, tempered by caution, and fueled by confidence and a strong desire to succeed.

Arms' cogent examination of leading strategies will enable the average investor to master successfully what is widely regarded as one of the most reliable methods of long-term market forecasting: volume analysis. Volume analysis is rooted in a seminal Arms theory—that volume plays as significant a role in understanding the markets as price movement. And volume is affected by the emotions at work in the marketplace. "The market is very complex. It is pushed one way or the other in varying degrees as a result of individual decisions of millions of participants. Some of those partici-pants are acting logically and others are acting emotionally...it is the volume which is giving us the real picture of the emotions in the marketplace. Price tells us what is happening, but volume tells us how it is happening."

Trading Without Fear offers investors a trading discipline with in-depth coverage of:

  • Technical vs. fundamental analysis
  • Equivolume charting and the importance of the "Power Box"
  • Ease of Movement and Volume Adjusted Moving Averages with new information not available anywhere else
  • Market tides—VAMA and cycles
  • The mechanics of buying
  • Selling short—how and when to do it
  • Closing out short positions

With his succinct analytical skills and unique approach, Richard Arms makes sophisticated investment strategies accessible to everyday, individual investors.

Trading Without Fear

"Mr. Arms elegantly combines many different aspects of volume analysis in this book. Volume is related to stock market breadth via the Arms Index, and to price via Equivolume charting. Volume Weighted Moving Averages and the Ease of Movement Indicator complete the picture. If you are interested in how to quantify the driving force of the market, this book is for you." — John Bollinger, CFA, CMT President, Bollinger Capital Management Editor, The Capital Growth Letter

"Analysts and traders will acquire confidence and control fear through carefully studying and applying the unique insights available in Trading Without Fear. This book sums up much of the inventive genius of Richard Arms, the 1995 winner of the coveted Market Technicians Award. The famed Arms Index and other unique indicators including Equivolume, Ease of Movement and Volume Cyclicacity are presented in clear terms and in a logical progression filled with penetrating insights into how to profit in the market." — Henry O. Pruden, PhD Professor, Golden Gate University Executive Director, Institute for Technical Market Analysts

Routledge International Handbook of Poverty (Hardcover): Bent Greve Routledge International Handbook of Poverty (Hardcover)
Bent Greve
R6,141 Discovery Miles 61 410 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

The first of the UN Millennium Goals was to reduce extreme poverty and in 2014 it was halved compared to 1990, and now the goal is to eradicate poverty and hunger by 2030. The reduction in poverty is, to a high degree, the consequence of the rapid economic development in a few countries, especially China, but in many countries around the globe poverty is still at a high level and is influencing societies' overall development. It is against this background that this Handbook provides an up-to-date analysis and overview of the topic from a large variety of theoretical and methodological angles. Organised into four parts, the Handbook provides knowledge on what poverty is, how it has developed, and what type of policies might be able to succeed in reducing poverty. Part I investigates conceptual issues and relates concepts to people's relative position in society and the understanding of justice. Part II shows how poverty has developed. It combines existing empirical knowledge with regional/national understandings of the issue of poverty. Part III analyses policies and interventions with the aim of reducing or alleviating poverty within a national as well as global context. It includes a variety of countries and examples. Finally, Part IV tells us what can be done about poverty; what instruments are available to end poverty as we know it today. This volume will be an invaluable reference book for students and scholars throughout the social sciences, particularly in sociology, social policy, public policy, development studies, international relations and politics.

The New Depression - The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy (Hardcover, New): Richard Duncan The New Depression - The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy (Hardcover, New)
Richard Duncan
R808 R621 Discovery Miles 6 210 Save R187 (23%) Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Why the global recession is in danger of becoming another Great Depression, and how we can stop it

When the United States stopped backing dollars with gold in 1968, the nature of money changed. All previous constraints on money and credit creation were removed and a new economic paradigm took shape. Economic growth ceased to be driven by capital accumulation and investment as it had been since before the Industrial Revolution. Instead, credit creation and consumption began to drive the economic dynamic. In "The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy," Richard Duncan introduces an analytical framework, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that explains all aspects of the calamity now unfolding: its causes, the rationale for the government's policy response to the crisis, what is likely to happen next, and how those developments will affect asset prices and investment portfolios.

In his previous book, "The Dollar Crisis" (2003), Duncan explained why a severe global economic crisis was inevitable given the flaws in the post-Bretton Woods international monetary system, and now he's back to explain what's next. The economic system that emerged following the abandonment of sound money requires credit growth to survive. Yet the private sector can bear no additional debt and the government's creditworthiness is deteriorating rapidly. Should total credit begin to contract significantly, this New Depression will become a New Great Depression, with disastrous economic and geopolitical consequences. That outcome is not inevitable, and this book describes what must be done to prevent it.Presents a fascinating look inside the financial crisis and how the New Depression is poised to become a New Great DepressionIntroduces a new theoretical construct, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that is the key to understanding not only the developments that led to the crisis, but also to understanding how events will play out in the years aheadOffers unique insights from the man who predicted the global economic breakdown

Alarming but essential reading, "The New Depression" explains why the global economy is teetering on the brink of falling into a deep and protracted depression, and how we can restore stability.

TradingView Pine Script Programming From Scratch - Build indicators, signal generators, backtest and automate trading logic... TradingView Pine Script Programming From Scratch - Build indicators, signal generators, backtest and automate trading logic (Paperback)
R464 Discovery Miles 4 640 Ships in 10 - 15 working days
Free Delivery
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