This report, first published in 1977, explores several different approaches to the same question; namely, how severe will be the impact on key U.S. macro-economic variables of the transition from main reliance on oil and natural gas to other sources of energy? This book will be of interest to students of economics and environmental studies.

Since 1945, the world has moved, haltingly but relentlessly, toward internationalism. And with the end of the Cold War and the apparent dominance of the West and its democratic and free-market systems, that march toward internationalism has proceeded apace, seemingly unstoppable. Or is it? With the Asian financial contagion spreading worldwide, the Russian democratic experiment coming undone, and cultural-ethnic violence flaring up around the world, one wonders.

Ambassador M DEGREESD/oller examines some of the major trends in the world system as we approach the new millennium: the stresses of globalization, the future role of the nation-state, the free-market system versus state-managed capitalism, and democratic pluralism versus Asian/Islamic/African/and other values. And he brings to this examination his background as a futurist, as a trade and economic affairs negotiator in the European Union, and as Ambassador to Singapore, one country where all these dynamics are at work. The larger question raised by Ambassador M DEGREESD/oller is: Are we poised on the brink of a new and truly internationalism millennium, or is this a sort of neo-Wilsonian phase destined for an abject and abrupt end? This book will be of interest to concerned citizens, futurists, and scholars and students of international relations around the world.

At the time in which this book was first published in 1992, there was a major concern with the macro-economic implications of fiscal imbalance. As the European economies moved closer to monetary union, and Germany grappled with the fiscal pressures of unification, deficits in the United States exceeded $300 billion. In this volume the authors address this issue, using both historical case-studies and cross-national comparisons. This book will be of interest to students of economics.

First Published in 1991. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.

This book is written for business persons who wish to forecast consumer demands and sales. It is also designed for economic, financial, governmental, and private practitioners, who make decisions based on costs, benefits, economic trends, and growth. Finally, the book is written for first year MBA students, undergraduate students, and other readers who wish to acquire a fundamental knowledge of forecasting for the purpose of pursuing jobs in the fields of economics and finance, or for making personal plans for the future. The book emphasizes applied aspects of forecasting rather than theoretical aspects, so a working knowledge of high-school statistics and college algebra is all the mathematics that is needed. Because regression-based forecasts do not appear until the last three chapters of the book, knowledge of econometrics or time-series modeling is not a prerequisite. Additionally, although each chapter is designed to be self-explanatory, a basic understanding of econometrics might be helpful, but not necessary. The book discusses most of the forecasting methods frequently used in business and economics, such as time-series, demand and sales, investment, short-term planning, long-term growth, and regressions. To keep the book concise, only a brief introduction to the ARIMA process is introduced. Readers who wish to gain in-depth knowledge of ARIMA models are encouraged to read a book written specifically for time-series modeling.

The economy of Iraq has fluctuated wildly since the 1950s. It has been affected by changes in governments, by wars, and by general instability. This book analyzes a complex subject and is especially timely at this critical juncture in the history of Iraq, the Middle East, and international relations. Abbas Alnasrawi traces the growth of the Iraqi economy since 1950, assesses its present state of crisis and underdevelopment, and explores its prospects for recovery. Alnasrawi contends that the economic development of Iraq was shaped by the rise in oil revenue, the war between Iran and Iraq, and the invasion of Kuwait and its aftermath. The discussion begins with the burst of Iraq's oil industry and the development policies under the monarchy. Subsequent chapters highlight development planning during the first ten years of the republic, the development plans of the ruling Baath party, the distructive consequences of the Iran-Iraq war and the recent invasion of Kuwait, and the future of the Iraqi economy to the year 2010. This in-depth examination puts this subject into a manageable context for students of the Middle East, multinational oil, Third World development, and international relations.

As Singapore enters its 50th year of independence, it is a time for introspection to look back at the successes and challenges of the past, but is also a crucial time to consider what the future holds for the nation.Singapore 2065: Leading Insights on Economy and Environment from 50 Singapore Icons and Beyond is one such key contribution to the endeavour of thinking about what lies ahead. While many forthcoming projects and books take a more retrospective approach reflecting upon Singapore's past, this book adopts a forward-looking perspective, contemplating Singapore's distant future, which is important for posterity. This book is a collection of key insights from 50 iconic individuals of Singapore and beyond, and contains reasoned arguments, speculations and visionary expectations of Singapore's future in 50 years' time.The book discusses the distant future of Singapore's economy and the environment. What will Singapore's economic and environment landscape be like 50 years from now? Are there trends or scenarios common to the various discussions contained in this book? If there are, how big would be the impact of some of these trends? What and how should the government respond to these projections, expectations and informed visions of tomorrow? In sum, what would Singapore's economy and environment be like in 2065? The book explores a range of possible answers to these questions and more.Not only will the generations of today be able to gain much insight into Singapore's future by reading this book, but future generations, specifically 100 years after Singapore's independence, will be able to understand and affirm what and how today's generations think about their time. The book is a key contribution to envisioning Singapore's future, which is also vital for understanding what shapes Singapore's landscape today.

This volume, originally published in 1979, examines systematically the nature of control in both capitalist and socialist economies, develops a theoretical and applied framework which can embrace both macroeconomics and plannng and demonstates the essential unity of all forms of macroeconomic planning by the consistent application of basic economic principles. Firstly, the authors establish why societies feel a need for government control and examine the mechanisms by which such social decisions are reached. Next they examine the nature of economic data, the modelling of economic systems nad a review of practical policy goals and instruments. The book then reviews the basic theory of optimisation and elaborates it in the context of planning for growth, for stabilisation and under uncertainty. It closes with an analysis of practical planning based on French and Soviet experience.

This analysis of macroeconomic policy, originally published in 1989, argues that key government objectives, such as reduced inflation, decreased unemployment and an adequate level of national saving can be achieved only by employing both monetary and fiscal policies, in conjunction with supply-side policies expressly designed to improve the workings of the labour market. Part 1 is a comparative analysis showing the effects of monetary and fiscal policy on the economy. Real-wage rigidity in the labour market is shown to have important consequences for the working of both types of policy, because it conditions the economy's response to tax changes. Part 2 presents an econometric model which combines consistent stock-flow accounts with a full range of expectational effects. Part 3 presents an innovative technique for solving rational expectations models with the need for arbitary terminal conditions.

The decade of the 1990s has opened on a note of major change, with events in the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, and South Africa moving at an astonishing pace, both on the political and economic fronts. These changes have brought into focus vital issues of political economy, a subject that this collection of essays carefully examines. Written for readers with or without a background in economics, the essays provide a perspective on economic systems, the underlying issues involved in creating an economic constitution, and the choices a society makes in designing an economy. Economists from Australia, Canada, France, the Netherlands, and the United States offer a stimulating variety of ideological and methodological perspectives. The collection begins with an introduction that reviews basic concepts of economic systems, including goals, the role of government, and efficiency and equity. The three essays that comprise Part I discuss basic issues in economic systems, and address the question of efficiency and equity in a free market from various ideological perspectives. Part II provides three proposals for reforming economic systems, including discussions of planning in a decentralized society and a highly interventionist economic and social system. The work concludes with three essays that draw historical and international comparisons between economic systems, and contrast the economic policies and performances of several Western countries and Japan. Although the contributors are professional economists, and include a Nobel Prize winner and the former president of the American Economic Association, their essays are written in a nontechnical language that will allow readers without an economic background to follow their arguments. This unique collection of essays will be a valuable supplement to courses in current economic problems, comparative economic systems, and development economics, as well as a useful resource for both public and academic libraries.

China's future development is likely to have a huge impact on twenty-first century global outcomes. It is therefore surprising that, thus far, so little attention has been given to comparing and evaluating expert forecasts of China's future in the post-Mao era. This book presents an illuminating and comprehensive summary record of contrasting and competing expert forecasts and judgements about the major issues confronting China within four principal domains - political, economic, environmental, and international. After considering the principal forecasting methods available to experts, the author comments critically on the degree of success achieved in using those methods and emphasises the confusion created by the polarisation of opinion and by the failure of many experts to accept the high degree of uncertainty that characterises most of the key issues. The book recommends a new approach based on the study of a hierarchy of critical uncertainties and on continuing analysis of opposing expert opinions about these uncertainties. It emphasises the potential for both positive and negative outcomes for these critical uncertainties, and the importance of maximising the potential for positive outcomes through improved analytical and policy frameworks. Providing insights for specialists and non-specialists into the most critical issues that will determine China's future direction, this book will be of particular interest to students and scholars of political, economic, environmental, and international relations issues in China and Asia, as well as to readers in business and government.

The book's main purposes are to determine what statistical and other information is needed to formulate both the objects and the means of government economic policy and then to ask what theoretical tools should be used in order to clarify the issues of economic policy. Inflationary gap analysis, national budgeting techniques and the theory of economic fluctuations are examined against the experience of a country in which they have been intelligently applied. The book gives a lively account of Swedish economic thinking and of the economic policy debates in Sweden since 1920, discusses the scope and limitations of national forecasting and budgeting and assesses the relative merits of general and detailed measures of economic policy.

This volume, originally published in 1997, examines the combined effect of financial instability and industrial restructuring on postwar economic growth and recession in the US. It sheds light on the fundamental question of whether or not these trends are positive for the economy as a whole. To explain the cyclical nature of investment and finance, institutional theory regarding financial instability is examined in depth and related to Minsky's analysis of investment behaviour. The author has created an empirical model of this behaviour which, he claims, accurately predicts historical consumption investment and GDP cycles.

At the time in which this book was first published in 1987, mass unemployment had emerged as the dominant, most visible, problem of the West European economies. The post-war experience of expansion was remarkable in that it experienced growth high enough to sustain a consensus on the possibility and desirability of full employment. This period declined into one of poor economic performance in the 1970s. Growth slowed and the subsequent years were characterised by painful adjustment and dislocation. In this challenging discussion of ways to overcome unemployment Ciaran Driver stresses the importance of managed restructuring. Driver focuses attention of the role of investment in fixed assets and human resources, and argues that governments do have a major role in steering the economy through a period of turbulent change, and that there are policies which can move the economy towards full employment. This book is ideal for students of business and economics.

Energy price rises have been amongst the biggest change that has taken place in our society over the last few decades. Their impact, particularly when this book was first published in 1983, had a growing importance in social policy, practice and research, and fuel was, and still is, a major public issue. This collection of essays describes how any why domestic fuel prices have been rising faster than other prices and incomes, what impacts this has on domestic budgets, and the extent of 'fuel poverty'. The resulting problems of debts, disconnections, cold conditions and hypothermia are discussed by specialists in these fields. This book is ideal for students of economics and social policy.

This study interprets and interrelates the major political, economic and security developments in Europe - including transatlantic relations - from the end of World War II up until the present time, and looks ahead to how the continent may evolve politically in the future. studies cover only specific aspects, such as the European Union. Destination Europe by contrast weaves all the different strands of European events together into a single overall and up-to-date picture which gives the reader a deeper understanding of the continent and its current and future challenges. security developments - both in the East and in the West - leading up to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Later chapters examine the European Union's reform efforts, enlargement, movement to a single currency and emerging security role; the political and economic changes in central and Eastern Europe, including Russia; the break-up of Yugoslavia and the wars that ensued; and NATO's enlargement and search for a new mission. Final chapters deal with forces affecting Europe's future such as terrorism, nationalism, religion, demographic trends and globalization. introductory text for undergraduate students of European politics and European history.

First published in 1986, this book discusses many important aspects of the theory and practice of Futures Markets. It describes how they, at the time, grew to be an increasingly important feature of the world's major financial centres. Indeed, they adopted the role of being efficient forward pricing mechanisms and this was reflected by the interest of economists in the study of risk, uncertainty and information. Here, the contributors focus on areas that were of concern in the late 1980s such as feasibility, forward pricing and returns, and the modelling of price determination in Futures Markets. Evidence is drawn from twenty-five different commodities representing all the major commodity groups; and from all the world's major centres of Futures Trading.

A Fast and Frugal Finance: Bridging Contemporary Behavioural Finance and Ecological Rationality adds psychological reality to classical financial reasoning. It shows how financial professionals can reach better and quicker decisions using the 'fast and frugal' framework for decision-making, adding dramatically to time and outcome efficiency, while also retaining accuracy. The book provides the reader with an adaptive toolbox of heuristic tools and classification systems to aid real-world decisions. Throughout, financial applications are presented alongside real-world examples to help readers solve established problems in finance, including stock buying and selling decisions, when faced with not only risk but fundamental uncertainty. The book concludes by describing potential solutions to financial problems in the forefront of contemporary debates, and calls for taking psychological insights seriously.

This title, first published in 1979, presents the Ph.D. thesis of the world-renowned economist and financial expert, Willem Buiter. In Part I, three alternative specifications of temporary equilibria in asset markets, including their implications for macroeconomic models, are discussed; Part II examines the long-term implications of some short-term macroeconomic models. The analysis of the theoretical foundations of 'direct crowding out' and 'indirect crowding out' is particularly prominent, with the result that a synthesis of short-term macroeconomic analysis and long-term growth theory is formulated. The traditional tools of comparative dynamics and stability analysis are employed frequently. However, it is also argued that the true scope of government policy can only be adequately evaluated with the aid of concepts such as dynamic and static controllability. Temporary Equilibrium and Long-Run Equilibrium is a valuable study, and relevant for all serious students of modern economic theory.

First published in 1987, this is an analysis of the contemporary breakdown of political and economic systems within the Eastern European communist countries. Rather than passively following the developments of this crisis, the author seeks instead to identify the reasons for failure and to examine alternative policies that offer solutions to these problems. Jan Winiecki's work offers a comparative study of the Soviet-type economies of the East with the market economies of the West; providing a cause and effect analysis of each model, with possible scenarios for their future prospects.

This book deals with the effects of international trade on economic growth and money. It also re-examines Keynesian theory and analyzes economic growth in an affluent society in terms of planning, economic and social policy.

Financial crises have dogged the international monetary system over recent years. They have impoverished millions of people around the world, especially within developing countries. And they have called into question the very process of globalisation. Yet there remains no intellectual consensus on how best to avert such crises - much less resolve them. Policymakers stand at a crossroads. This volume summarises and evaluates these issues, drawing on contributions by prominent international experts in the field. It considers whether the IMF may have actually fanned the flames of future crises through its lending decisions. It assesses the contribution made by private creditors in resolving past crises - and asks what mechanisms might best be used to involve private creditors in the future. It also assesses the merits of two recent competing blueprints for architectural reform - the so-called contractual and statutory approaches to crisis resolution. These issues will shape the debate on the future of the international monetary system over the next decade and, probably, beyond. For although crises may always be with us, better public policy can surely help mitigate their future cost and incidence. With an impressive array of internationally based contributors, this book will deserve a place on the bookshelves of economists and policy-makers in both the official and private sectors.

The Fiscal Impact Handbook is a unique manual detailing practical methods for determining the full range of revenues and costs associated with residential and nonresidential growth. Planners, economists, businessmen, administrators, financial officers, assessors, community groups, private organizations, and those interested in the fiscal consequences of growth and non-growth will find "The Fiscal Impact Handbook" indispensable. Fiscal impact methods are presented in a clear, step-by-step format and are capable of being carried out by the practicing planner with minimal procedural problems. The manual is designed as a basic tool to be used for projections of direct, current public (and private) costs and revenues resulting from population or employment change to the local jurisdiction in which change is taking place. Standardized methods are presented with attention paid to the underlying assumptions, limitations, and applicability of these methods. Necessary factors affecting the planning and legal framework and documentation of key data input are covered for proper utilization of fiscal impact methods.

Detailed examples are given to the six flexible methods, presented with suggestions on how they can be modified by the user to meet requirements. In addition, current computer models of analysis are evaluated for operational needs and benefits. Included also is a comprehensive bibliography of the cost-revenue field and an index for quick, easy reference. This is an invaluable work for urban analysts, planners, and developers written by two of the top minds in the field of urban policy.

Countering the many claims that the best days of capitalism are over following the economic meltdown of 2008 onwards, this book provocatively argues that a new golden age of capitalism - or upwave - began around 2002, and despite the unstable markets in the western world of the past few years, this upwave will produce previously unseen levels of wealth creation during the next twenty years. Basing this theory on the commercialisation of new technologies and the growth of new markets, the author claims that these positive trends are key to economic recovery in the US, UK and Europe. It argues that the most serious problem facing some countries in the west is government debt and that macroeconomic policy is of limited use in flexible and adaptive economies, where innovation, entrepreneurship and private investment should be encouraged in a range of cities and city regions. This highly original book will interest those concerned with national economies, nation states and urban policy.

The book focuses on three main themes: * overpopulation associated with low productivity, unemployment, persistent poverty and weak savings and investment capacity * the post-1950 development strategies and their outcomes * the institutional structures that are constraining economic and political progress. Egypt in the Twenty First Century is a much needed investigation into the long-term economic reform and restructuring and examines the challenges ahead for the country. It provides authoritative analyses from a collection of respected academics and a wealth of new data. It will appeal to all those interested in the political economy of contemporary Egypt. agriculture, industry and political systems.