The importance of house prices to households, real estate developers, banks and policy-makers cannot be overemphasised. House price changes affect consumer spending and business investment patterns, which in turn affect the wider macro economy and the entire business cycle. Measuring and understanding house prices is therefore essential to a functioning economy, but researchers continue to disagree on the best methodological approach for constructing real estate indices. This book argues the need for more accurate house price indices, outlines the various methods used to construct indices and discusses the existing house price indices around the globe. It shows how the raw data of property transactions can be prepared for the purpose of constructing indices, discusses various applications of property price indices and empirically demonstrates how the index numbers can be used to model the supply of new houses and to estimate the price elasticity of supply. Essential reading for economists, real estate professionals and researchers, and policy-makers.

This completely revised and updated edition of Norman Frumkin's acclaimed work offers vital information for the urgent growing debate on the state of the nation's economy. Frumkin makes complex ideas and statistical data accessible to people without special training in economics. His goal in this book is to provide a better understanding of the performance of the American economy, and a basis for evaluating proposals intended to influence its future course. Using data current through the first half of 2003, Frumkin focuses on the meaning and use of a wide array of indicators of economic growth, employment, wages, productivity, investment, saving, and finance in assessing the current state of the U.S. economy and forecasting future developments. Equally useful for economists, students, investors, journalists, and anyone concerned with the economy, this totally revised edition includes detailed coverage of many important new topics, such as terrorism's impact on the economy, federal debt and interest rates, job openings and unemployment, government spending and taxes, the 2001 recession, and more.

This completely revised and updated edition of Norman Frumkin's acclaimed work offers vital information for the urgent growing debate on the state of the nation's economy. Frumkin makes complex ideas and statistical data accessible to people without special training in economics. His goal in this book is to provide a better understanding of the performance of the American economy, and a basis for evaluating proposals intended to influence its future course. Using data current through the first half of 2003, Frumkin focuses on the meaning and use of a wide array of indicators of economic growth, employment, wages, productivity, investment, saving, and finance in assessing the current state of the U.S. economy and forecasting future developments. Equally useful for economists, students, investors, journalists, and anyone concerned with the economy, this totally revised edition includes detailed coverage of many important new topics, such as terrorism's impact on the economy, federal debt and interest rates, job openings and unemployment, government spending and taxes, the 2001 recession, and more.

Financial crises have dogged the international monetary system over recent years. They have impoverished millions of people around the world, especially within developing countries. And they have called into question the very process of globalisation. Yet there remains no intellectual consensus on how best to avert such crises - much less resolve them. Policymakers stand at a crossroads. This volume summarises and evaluates these issues, drawing on contributions by prominent international experts in the field. It considers whether the IMF may have actually fanned the flames of future crises through its lending decisions. It assesses the contribution made by private creditors in resolving past crises - and asks what mechanisms might best be used to involve private creditors in the future. It also assesses the merits of two recent competing blueprints for architectural reform - the so-called contractual and statutory approaches to crisis resolution. These issues will shape the debate on the future of the international monetary system over the next decade and, probably, beyond. For although crises may always be with us, better public policy can surely help mitigate their future cost and incidence. With an impressive array of internationally based contributors, this book will deserve a place on the bookshelves of economists and policy-makers in both the official and private sectors.

The 20th century was the century of explosive population growth, resulting in unprecedented impacts; in contrast, the 21st century is likely to see the end of world population growth and become the century of population aging. We are currently at the crossroads of these demographic regimes. This book presents fresh evidence about our demographic future and provides a new framework for understanding the underlying unity in this diversity. It is an invaluable resource for those concerned with the implications of population change in the 21st century. The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century is the first volume in a new series on Population and Sustainable Development. The series provides fresh ways of thinking about population trends and impacts.

This collection of 22 commissioned essays from scholars across numerous fields responded to the question: What are the most fundamental things you can say concerning the interrelations between the institutions of government and property? Contributing authors were asked to address this question in a positive analysis and that their essay penetrate to the deepest (most fundamental) levels of property-government organization. Their contributions are illuminating.

First published in 1980, this compact and useful book uses the earliest volumes of government-published statistics, and with the aid of computer-generated cartography, transforms the numbers there reported into an arrondissement-by-arrondissement comparative picture of French agriculture in the mid-1830s. Clout reviews problems of rapid population growth, scarcely adequate domestic food supplies and primitive systems of transportation, while attention is drawn to spatial variations in agricultural activity and productivity. Commercial, high-yielding farming was best developed in a northern multi-nuclear region, comprising of Ile-de-France, Normandy and Nord, with smaller foci of commercial orientation along an eastern axis from Alsace to Marseilles and in western areas from the Loire to the middle of the Garonne valley. Clout concludes that the revolutionary promise of national economic unity was far from being realised in the 1830s and was not to be achieved until national systems of transport and education were firmly established later in the nineteenth century.

The forecasting of financial markets has engaged the attention of market professionals and academic economists and statisticians for many years, and has also attracted the interest of numerous 'amateur' investors. This book brings together key papers in this wide field. After considering some of the earliest attempts at forecasting, it provides an insight into the theoretical underpinnings of the subject, investigates the random walk model, and examines various financial markets, volatility and density forecasting, the forecasting of extreme events, trading rules, technical analysis and high frequency data.

This title was first published in 2000: Sustainable development offers visions of the future, but implementation of new sustainable policies seems slow. This text presents a forecasting method directed to overcome some barriers to the implementation of more sustainable economic policy. Using a case study, the authors describe how economic and environmental forecasts can be developed that are relevant to the immediate concerns of policy-makers and are more likely to lead to policy changes. A combination of forecasting methods are shown to evaluate a range of current alternatives in the future. Similar techniques have been used in developing countries, but here the techniques are applied to an already industrialized economy.

This volume, originally published in 1979, examines systematically the nature of control in both capitalist and socialist economies, develops a theoretical and applied framework which can embrace both macroeconomics and plannng and demonstates the essential unity of all forms of macroeconomic planning by the consistent application of basic economic principles. Firstly, the authors establish why societies feel a need for government control and examine the mechanisms by which such social decisions are reached. Next they examine the nature of economic data, the modelling of economic systems nad a review of practical policy goals and instruments. The book then reviews the basic theory of optimisation and elaborates it in the context of planning for growth, for stabilisation and under uncertainty. It closes with an analysis of practical planning based on French and Soviet experience.

Before the handover to China in 1997, Hong Kong's economic growth was very strong and the unemployment rate dropped to a record low of 2.2 per cent. In recent years, the widening income dispersion in Hong Kong has caught public attention. This book investigates the economic development and changes in income distribution of Hong Kong from different perspectives. Based on latest empirical evidence of Hong Kong, the book examines the relationship between economic restructuring and rising income disparity. Public housing programmes in Hong Kong affect half of the population directly and the other half indirectly. This book assesses the redistributive effect of public rental housing on income distribution. Moreover, Hong Kong embarked an ambitious expansion programme of tertiary education in 1989. The expansion represents an exogenous increase in the supply of university graduates and the book evaluates the impact on income distribution. It also investigates the income dispersion among and between natives and immigrants. Researchers, politicians and policy makers should be interested to learn about the causes of rising income dispersion in post-handover Hong Kong uncovered in this book. Although economic restructuring is named as the prime suspect that caused rising income inequality, the empirical evidence proves otherwise. The book will be of interest to policy makers with implications on social security system and income disparity.

A book on practical business forecasting belongs in the library of everyone interested in business. Forecasting is extremely important to finance and accounting executives, business economists and managers at all levels.
Strategic Business Forecasting: The Complete Guide to Forecasting Real World Company Performance provides you with a working knowledge of the fundamentals of business forecasting that can be applied in the real world regardless of the size of the firm. The author explains the basic forecasting methodology and the practical applications. All aspects of business are discussed, making this a comprehensive and valuable reference.
The author avoids theoretical and mathematical discussions to gets right into how, when , and why to use this book. Many practical examples, applications, illustrations, guidelines, measures, checklists, rules of thumb, tips, graphs, diagrams and tables aid your comprehension of the subject. The author displays and explains printouts obtained using many popular spreadsheet programs and software packages.
The book goes far beyond just sales forecasting, encompassing a wide range of topics of major importance to practical business managers and finance professionals, including cash flow forecasting, cost prediction, earnings forecasts, bankruptcy prediction, foreign exchange forecasting, and interest rate forecasting. Written in an easy-to-read style, it is practical, current, and intriguing - a reference book to use throughout your business career.

Drawing on interviews with the UK government's Panel of Independent Forecasters, the author shows how economic models, forecasts and policy analysis depend crucially upon the judgements of economists.

A new, evolutionary explanation of markets and investor behavior Half of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet economists can't agree on whether investors and markets are rational and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists believe. The debate is one of the biggest in economics, and the value or futility of investment management and financial regulation hangs on the answer. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Lo transforms the debate with a powerful new framework in which rationality and irrationality coexist-the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis. Drawing on psychology, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and other fields, Adaptive Markets shows that the theory of market efficiency is incomplete. When markets are unstable, investors react instinctively, creating inefficiencies for others to exploit. Lo's new paradigm explains how financial evolution shapes behavior and markets at the speed of thought-a fact revealed by swings between stability and crisis, profit and loss, and innovation and regulation. An ambitious new answer to fundamental questions about economics and investing, Adaptive Markets is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how markets really work.

This book offers an in-depth analysis of the current state of the African economy and makes constructive suggestions about its future direction. The contributors argue that despite enduring challenges such as food security and employment creation, Africa faces a brighter future in sustainable growth provided that governance and policy- making are effectively employed to maintain peace, achieve greater regional collaboration and encourage private sector competitiveness.

eBook available with sample pages: 0203022939

Discussing economic theory and English economic history from the eighteenth century until the late 1970s this volume discusses among other things fixed capital and problems with the definition of the premodern economy as well as providing a chronology of 18th century business cycles.

This volume, originally published in 1997, examines the combined effect of financial instability and industrial restructuring on postwar economic growth and recession in the US. It sheds light on the fundamental question of whether or not these trends are positive for the economy as a whole. To explain the cyclical nature of investment and finance, institutional theory regarding financial instability is examined in depth and related to Minsky's analysis of investment behaviour. The author has created an empirical model of this behaviour which, he claims, accurately predicts historical consumption investment and GDP cycles.

The "Regional Handbooks of Economic Development" series provides accessible overviews of countries within their larger domestic and international contexts, focusing on the relations among regions as they meet the challenges of the twenty first century.
The series allows the non-specialist student to explore a wide range of complex factors-social and political as well as economic-that affect the growth of developing regions in Asia, Europe, and South America. Each "Handbook" provides an overview chapter discussing the region's economic conditions within an historical and political context, as well as 20 or more chapter-length essays written by recognized experts, which analyze the key issues affecting a region's economy: its population, natural resources, foreign trade, labor problems, and economic inequalities, and other vital factors.
In addition, the volumes offer useful support materials, including a series of appendices that include a detailed chronology of events in the region, a glossary of terms, biographical entries on key personalities, an annotated bibliography of further reading, and a comprehensive analytical index.

In this book, Nagesh Kumar and expert contributors examine and explain the emerging patterns in international technology transfers and foreign direct investment flows (FDIs) over the past two decades. They analyse the trends in internationalization of corporate activity in individual source countries, discussing outflows from both major and emerging source countries. This departs from the existing treatments of FDI as homogenous resource and allows for a more detailed prediction of future outflow patterns. Throughout, the research focuses upon the implications of new trends for developing countries. Kumar concludes by outlining the policy implications for the governments of such countries seeking to mobilize technology and FDI for their industrialization and further integration into the international community. Controversially, he cautions against excessive optimism about the potential of FDI inflows as an agent of development. This book draws together much data and information which is not readily available and provides reflections upon international business negotiations from a developing country's perspective.

This survey uses up-to-date methodological apparatus including sophisticated computer modelling techniques to identify the key political, social and economic trends which are likely to shape the East Asian region at the millennium and beyond. An international team of experts address a range of critical areas including the following: strategy and the role of the west; east Asia and the information society; Japan at the turning point and the "return to Asia"; North and South Korea - unification and brinkmanship; China - power and greater China; and ASEAN and development.

This survey uses up-to-date methodological apparatus including sophisticated computer modelling techniques to identify the key political, social and economic trends which are likely to shape the East Asian region at the millennium and beyond. An international team of experts address a range of critical areas including the following: strategy and the role of the west; east Asia and the information society; Japan at the turning point and the "return to Asia"; North and South Korea - unification and brinkmanship; China - power and greater China; and ASEAN and development.

This analysis of macroeconomic policy, originally published in 1989, argues that key government objectives, such as reduced inflation, decreased unemployment and an adequate level of national saving can be achieved only by employing both monetary and fiscal policies, in conjunction with supply-side policies expressly designed to improve the workings of the labour market. Part 1 is a comparative analysis showing the effects of monetary and fiscal policy on the economy. Real-wage rigidity in the labour market is shown to have important consequences for the working of both types of policy, because it conditions the economy's response to tax changes. Part 2 presents an econometric model which combines consistent stock-flow accounts with a full range of expectational effects. Part 3 presents an innovative technique for solving rational expectations models with the need for arbitary terminal conditions.

This report, first published in 1977, explores several different approaches to the same question; namely, how severe will be the impact on key U.S. macro-economic variables of the transition from main reliance on oil and natural gas to other sources of energy? This book will be of interest to students of economics and environmental studies.

This book provides information on a statistical account and theoretical interpretation of Swedish business cycles since 1918 as well as a survey of the problems of economic policy, as revealed both in practice and in theoretical discussion, during the inter-war and post-war periods.

This work presents a predicted summary of major economic challenges facing the United States in the last years of the 20th century. Intended to shape the platforms of the major parties and the general public, it contains proposals by leading specialists aimed at resolving such challenges.