This book investigates why economics makes less visible progress over time than scientific fields with a strong practical component, where interactions with physical technologies play a key role. The thesis of the book is that the main impediment to progress in economics is "false feedback", which it defines as the false result of an empirical study, such as empirical evidence produced by a statistical model that violates some of its assumptions. In contrast to scientific fields that work with physical technologies, false feedback is hard to recognize in economics. Economists thus have difficulties knowing where they stand in their inquiries, and false feedback will regularly lead them in the wrong directions. The book searches for the reasons behind the emergence of false feedback. It thereby contributes to a wider discussion in the field of metascience about the practices of researchers when pursuing their daily business. The book thus offers a case study of metascience for the field of empirical economics. The main strength of the book are the numerous smaller insights it provides throughout. The book delves into deep discussions of various theoretical issues, which it illustrates by many applied examples and a wide array of references, especially to philosophy of science. The book puts flesh on complicated and often abstract subjects, particularly when it comes to controversial topics such as p-hacking. The reader gains an understanding of the main challenges present in empirical economic research and also the possible solutions. The main audience of the book are all applied researchers working with data and, in particular, those who have found certain aspects of their research practice problematic.

* A useful guide to financial product modeling and to minimizing business risk and uncertainty * Looks at wide range of financial assets and markets and correlates them with enterprises' profitability * Introduces advanced and novel machine learning techniques in finance such as Support Vector Machine, Neural Networks, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, Extreme Learning Machine, Deep Learning Approaches and applies them to analyze finance data sets * Real world applicable examples to further understanding

Law and economics research has had an enormous impact on the laws of contracts, torts, property, crimes, corporations, and antitrust, as well as public regulation and fundamental rights. The Law and Economics of Patent Damages, Antitrust, and Legal Process examines several areas of important research by a variety of international scholars. It contains technical papers on the appropriate way to estimate damages in patent disputes, as well as methods for evaluating relevant markets and vertically integrated firms when determining the competitive effects of mergers and other actions. There are also papers on the implication of different legal processes, regulations, and liability rules on consumer welfare, which range from the impact of delays in legal decisions in labour cases in France to issues of criminal liability related to the use of artificial intelligence. This volume of Research in Law and Economics is a must-read for researchers and professionals of patent damages, antitrust, labour, and legal process.

Due to the ability to handle specific characteristics of economics and finance forecasting problems like e.g. non-linear relationships, behavioral changes, or knowledge-based domain segmentation, we have recently witnessed a phenomenal growth of the application of computational intelligence methodologies in this field. In this volume, Chen and Wang collected not just works on traditional computational intelligence approaches like fuzzy logic, neural networks, and genetic algorithms, but also examples for more recent technologies like e.g. rough sets, support vector machines, wavelets, or ant algorithms. After an introductory chapter with a structural description of all the methodologies, the subsequent parts describe novel applications of these to typical economics and finance problems like business forecasting, currency crisis discrimination, foreign exchange markets, or stock markets behavior.

Every day, companies are faced with dozens, even hundreds, of critical decisions concerning the allocation of resources, financial and organizational structure, and strategic direction. Who should make these decisions? And who should be held accountable for their consequences? Boards of directors are the "watchers" who govern the destinies of today's corporations, and Robert Monks and Nell Minow have been watching over their actions for years. This book was written for the people who need to know the most about corporate governance - directors, managers, shareholders, anyone in business - by the people who may know the most about doing it right. Watching the Watchers: Corporate Governance for the 21st Century covers everything modern-day managers need to know about corporate governance. Monks and Minow examine what a corporation is and how to measure its performance. In separate chapters on the rights and responsibilities of shareholders, boards of directors, managers, and employees, the authors examine the roles that each of these "corporate constituents" can, do, and should play in determining corporate direction and strategy. And they conclude with recommendations for increasing the productivity and competitiveness of corporations by strengthening the shareholders and the board - the "watchers". Their real-world experiences, insights, and instructions are of critical importance to anyone concerned with the direction of business in our time.

Gain the knowledge and skills that can help you exploit instability. Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles No book can help you construct foolproof forecasting systems that will ensure youa ll accurately predict economic turning points every time. But with Niemira and Kleina s Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles on hand, youa ll be able to significantly strengthen your ability to measure, monitor, and forecast important fluctuations. Part history, it provides you with essential background material on the characteristics and causes of economic volatility. It offers accessible coverage of the classical business cycle, the five basic types of economic cycles as determined by leading economists, and evolving ideas on the forces driving instability----ranging from simple unicausal theories, more complex Keynesian theory, to new classical macroeconomics. In addition, its concise review of Americaa s economic past highlights the lessons that can be learned from the various cycles experienced since shortly before World War II. Part handbook, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles presents the full spectrum of statistical techniques used to measure cycles, trends, seasonal patterns, and other vital changes, offering you step--by--step guidance on applying a specific method and detailing its uses and limitations. It goes on to show how you can adapt particular techniques to assess, track, and predict: aeo Industry cycles----including an objective, tailor--made forecasting tool aeo Regional business cycles----including a survey of regional indicators aeo International business cycles----with an international business cycle chronology aeo Inflation cycles----plus "12 little--known facts" about this complex cycle aeo Financial cycles----covering credit, monetary, and interest rate cycles aeo Stock market cycles----with advice on achieving more disciplined trading Based on outstanding scholarship and years of practical experience, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles will serve as an invaluable tool for practitioners like you whose decision--making----and profit margin----depend on accurately assessing todaya s often uncertain economic climate. "Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles provides a lively survey of the many ways that cyclical economic activity has been dissected and analyzed. With this book, an astute reader may even be able to anticipate the next cyclical turn." ----Samuel D. Kahan Chief Economist Fuji Securities, Inc. "The definitive book on the most important and enduring feature of an often mist--bound economic landscape: the business cycle." ----Alfred L. Malabre, Jr. Economics Editor The Wall Street Journal "Niemira and Klein cover both the theory of economic cycles and methods for forecasting them. They provide one of the most comprehensive and current reviews of academic studies of economic cycles to be found anywhere." ----Anthony F. Herbst Professor of Finance The University of Texas at El Paso "This book succeeds as a comprehensive, balanced, and accessible treatment of fluctuations in economic and financial activity. It should prove useful to all those in industry and finance who wish to understand and analyze the trends and changes in the modern dynamic economy." ----Victor Zarnowitz Professor Emeritus of Economics and Finance University of Chicago

Sub-Saharan Africa is vastly diverse, and the 49 countries of the region range significantly in terms of population, size and economic scale. The region also differs in topography, climate, history, culture, languages and political systems. Given this vast diversity, it is, accordingly, difficult to draw general conclusions about the continent's economic performance as a whole. Additionally, the lack of current statistics for several countries makes it difficult to make accurate assessments of economic conditions. Nevertheless, some broad comparisons can be made: of the world's developing areas, sub-Saharan Africa has the worst record in virtually all of the most important social and economic indicators: the region has the lowest gross national income per head, the lowest life expectancy at birth, the lowest youth literacy rate, the highest rate of adult HIV infection and the highest number of children not living past five years of age. This volume begins by examining recent economic developments and trends. It then looks at the major economic constraints the region has faced in recent years, breaking down those constraints as either 'external' (e.g. terms of trade) over which the individual countries have but limited control, or 'internal' (e.g. governance and economic policy), over which there is more control. The book concludes by arguing that, despite the notable challenges cited above, sub-Saharan Africa is poised for a transformation, based on closer regional economic co-operation, a growing middle class, increased demand for locally produced goods and services, and a young population.

The first of the UN Millennium Goals was to reduce extreme poverty and in 2014 it was halved compared to 1990, and now the goal is to eradicate poverty and hunger by 2030. The reduction in poverty is, to a high degree, the consequence of the rapid economic development in a few countries, especially China, but in many countries around the globe poverty is still at a high level and is influencing societies' overall development. It is against this background that this Handbook provides an up-to-date analysis and overview of the topic from a large variety of theoretical and methodological angles. Organised into four parts, the Handbook provides knowledge on what poverty is, how it has developed, and what type of policies might be able to succeed in reducing poverty. Part I investigates conceptual issues and relates concepts to people's relative position in society and the understanding of justice. Part II shows how poverty has developed. It combines existing empirical knowledge with regional/national understandings of the issue of poverty. Part III analyses policies and interventions with the aim of reducing or alleviating poverty within a national as well as global context. It includes a variety of countries and examples. Finally, Part IV tells us what can be done about poverty; what instruments are available to end poverty as we know it today. This volume will be an invaluable reference book for students and scholars throughout the social sciences, particularly in sociology, social policy, public policy, development studies, international relations and politics.

This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth. GDP forecasts for the years 2006 to 2020 for 40 countries are derived in a transparent way. Offering a systematic approach to models of potential GDP that can also be used for forecasts of more than a decade it fills the wide gap between the high demand for such models by banks, international organizations, and governments on the one hand and the limited supply on the other hand. Frequent forecast failures in the past (e.g. Japan 1990, Asia 1997) and the heavy economic losses they produced motivated the work. The book assesses the large number of theories of economic growth, the drivers of economic growth, the available datasets and the empirical methods on offer. A preference is shown for evolutionary models and an augmented Kaldor model. The book uses non-stationary panel techniques to find pair-wise cointegration among GDP per capita and its main correlates.

The ramifications of the Global Financial Crisis, which erupted in 2007, continue to surprise not only the general public but also finance professionals, economists, and journalists. Faced with this challenge, Preparing for the Next Financial Crisis goes back to basics. The authors ask: what do theory and empirical observations tell us about the causes and the consequences of financial crisis and instability? In what has become an increasingly complex financial world, what lessons can we learn from economic policies, which have been implemented, and research, which has developed extremely rapidly in recent years, so as not to repeat past mistakes? In this comprehensive review of the literature, which is both complete and balanced, the authors highlight the points of consensus among economists and policymakers. They assess the capacity of economic policies and institutions in limiting the cost of financial instability. In conclusion, they ask if the financial system has become safer, in the light especially of the Covid-19 Global Crisis. Ten years after the GFC crisis, this is a timely review of the reform agenda, the progress made, and the areas where further changes need to be made to address new risks and challenges.

A study of business management and forecasting. It covers forecasting in transportation; forecasting for water and energy; and the applications of forecasting. It also includes a case study of the Greek airport system.

She's been compared to a beacon shining through the fog. Her thorough research, meticulous analyses, and extraordinarily accurate forecasts have won her the respect and admiration of colleagues up and down the Street. A protégée of the master technical analyst Alan Shaw, she is currently Senior Technical Analyst, Vice President for Research at Salomon Smith Barney. But what some insiders remember most about Louise Yamada is that in 1994 she was among the very first to predict the greatest bull market of the twentieth century.

In Market Magic, Louise Yamada shares her formidable skills to look beyond the daily noise of trading and help guide your investments through the perils and uncertainties of the next ten years. At a time when classical forecasting techniques seem to be failing us and even the professionals are at a loss as to which way the markets will go, Yamada marshals her experience and talent to offer on-target analyses of today's macro forces and specific trend forecasts for the next decade.

Reading this book, you will understand why her weekly reports on various markets are so eagerly awaited by investors everywhere. Yamada describes what she saw in 1994 that led her to argue for an extended bull market. In addition, she describes her "two-tier market thesis" and explains why U.S. equities with global exposure have outperformed domestically focused stocks and why this trend should continue into the future.

Yamada reveals how macro changes in U.S. demographics have subtly altered the business and investment landscapes, and how these demographic shifts are impacting the stock market in ways that have been largely unnoticed. Her case for an extension of this bull market into the next century is must reading for all serious (and nervous) investors. Firm in her belief that new technology will continue to drive the economy, Yamada identifies the industries and business sectors she believes will thrive under its expanding influence.

Market Magic offers a fresh perspective on the new and emerging realities. Forging links between the forces that will be at work in the future, Louise Yamada reveals a thought-provoking scenario for the market's next ten years, and details how investors can track its course through technical analysis. Market Magic is an enlightening analysis of the big picture from one of the best minds in the investment community.

"Few on Wall Street can match Louise Yamada for analytical ability as well as insight on the big issues affecting investors. We are fortunate she is willing to share the results of her thoughts and research with us." —Mark Haines, CNBC.

"Louise Yamada has a special talent for anticipating future financial trends. Market Magic is a must read for investors as we prepare for the exciting decade ahead." —David Cork, F.C.S.I. author of The Pig and the Python: How to Prosper from the Aging Baby Boom.

"Market Magic demystifies the voodoo of technical analysis and relates technical indicators to the real world of stocks and bonds and demographic and economic trends worldwide." —Oscar S. Schafer, General Partner Cumberland Associates; Member, Barron's Roundtable.

To fully function in today's global real estate industry, students and professionals increasingly need to understand how to implement essential and cutting-edge quantitative techniques. This book presents an easy-to-read guide to applying quantitative analysis in real estate aimed at non-cognate undergraduate and masters students, and meets the requirements of modern professional practice. Through case studies and examples illustrating applications using data sourced from dedicated real estate information providers and major firms in the industry, the book provides an introduction to the foundations underlying statistical data analysis, common data manipulations and understanding descriptive statistics, before gradually building up to more advanced quantitative analysis, modelling and forecasting of real estate markets. Our examples and case studies within the chapters have been specifically compiled for this book and explicitly designed to help the reader acquire a better understanding of the quantitative methods addressed in each chapter. Our objective is to equip readers with the skills needed to confidently carry out their own quantitative analysis and be able to interpret empirical results from academic work and practitioner studies in the field of real estate and in other asset classes. Both undergraduate and masters level students, as well as real estate analysts in the professions, will find this book to be essential reading.

The economy of Iraq has fluctuated wildly since the 1950s. It has been affected by changes in governments, by wars, and by general instability. This book analyzes a complex subject and is especially timely at this critical juncture in the history of Iraq, the Middle East, and international relations. Abbas Alnasrawi traces the growth of the Iraqi economy since 1950, assesses its present state of crisis and underdevelopment, and explores its prospects for recovery. Alnasrawi contends that the economic development of Iraq was shaped by the rise in oil revenue, the war between Iran and Iraq, and the invasion of Kuwait and its aftermath. The discussion begins with the burst of Iraq's oil industry and the development policies under the monarchy. Subsequent chapters highlight development planning during the first ten years of the republic, the development plans of the ruling Baath party, the distructive consequences of the Iran-Iraq war and the recent invasion of Kuwait, and the future of the Iraqi economy to the year 2010. This in-depth examination puts this subject into a manageable context for students of the Middle East, multinational oil, Third World development, and international relations.

Market Analysis for Real Estate is a comprehensive introduction to how real estate markets work and the analytical tools and techniques that can be used to identify and interpret market signals. The markets for space and varied property assets, including residential, office, retail, and industrial, are presented, analyzed, and integrated into a complete understanding of the role of real estate markets within the workings of contemporary urban economies. Unlike other books on market analysis, the economic and financial theory in this book is rigorous and well integrated with the specifics of the real estate market. Furthermore, it is thoroughly explained as it assumes no previous coursework in economics or finance on the part of the reader. The theoretical discussion is backed up with numerous real estate case study examples and problems, which are presented throughout the text to assist both student and teacher. Including discussion questions, exercises, several web links, and online slides, this textbook is suitable for use on a variety of degree programs in real estate, finance, business, planning, and economics at undergraduate and MSc/MBA level. It is also a useful primer for professionals in these disciplines.

Pathology of the Capitalist Spirit is about capital and about the economic system that bears its name. In this book, Levine argues that our pursuit of ever-more wealth in the form of capital expresses our dissatisfaction with the world we live in, with what we have and what we don't have. Capital embodies our hope for something different. Because capital embodies this hope, it has become desire's object. In his study of capitalism, Levine explores the meaning of capital as a social reality connected to fundamental human aspirations. The link between capital and the pursuit of a hoped-for state is especially important in light of the stubborn insistence on the part of its critics that capitalism exists to serve the material interests of those whose vocation is to own capital. This misunderstanding ignores what is essential about capital, which is its link not to interests but to hope, especially the hope that by accumulating capital the individual can achieve an attachment to the good. It is this hope that blocks tolerance of any notion that there is something unfair in the capitalist's acquisition of wealth and that fairness can be achieved through its redistribution to others. It is also this hope that animates the capitalist system as a whole. And in that sense, this hope is the spirit of capitalism. To develop this theme, Levine calls on the ideas and writings of major theorists involved with understanding modernity and capitalism: Adam Smith, Karl Marx, Max Weber, Emile Durkheim, and Joseph Schumpeter.

This book provides an overview of Chinese RMB exchange markets and its risk management strategies. The view that RMB is playing an increasingly international role has been widely accepted by practitioners as well as scholars worldwide. Moreover, the Chinese government is opening the control of RMB exchange market step by step. However, some related topics are under heated debate, such as how to manage and warn of the currency crisis, what the trend of RMB exchange rate in the future is, and how to hedge the exchange risk in the process of RMB internationalization. In this book, we will give distinct answers to the above questions.

For the past 30 years international monetary economists have believed that exchange rate models cannot outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting as a result of the 1983 paper written by Richard Meese and Kenneth Rogoff. Marking the culmination of their extensive research into the Meese-Rogoff puzzle, Moosa and Burns challenge the orthodoxy by demonstrating that the naive random walk model can be outperformed by exchange rate models when forecasting accuracy is measured by metrics that do not rely exclusively on the magnitude of forecasting error. The authors present compelling evidence, supported by their own measure: the 'adjusted root mean square error', to finally solve the Meese-Rogoff puzzle and provide a new alternative. Demystifying the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle will appeal to academics with an interest in exchange rate economics and international monetary economics. It will also be a useful resource for central banks and financial institutions.

After impressive growth of about 10% per annum for three decades, China's visible signs of economic slowdown since 2008 have been subject to much contention. What causes the deceleration? What should we expect in an era of China's 6% growth? This book answers these questions in three parts. Although it is widely accepted that China can hardly continue its high-speed growth model, estimations for its future growth potential differ greatly. The first part of this book predicts China's growth to 2050, which considers both cross-country historical experiences and China's own demographic structure and employment participation features. In the second part, the book offers a comprehensive estimation of China's national and provincial total factor productivity (TFP) over the period of 1978 to 2014 based on comparable data. It then analyzes the causes of China's economic slowdown from a productivity point of view. Finally, this book correspondingly outlines policy recommendations, including supply-side structural reform and macroeconomic policy frameworks, to effectively address the issue of decline in both labor and labor productivity growth. This book will attract scholars and students of economics and China's economic studies.

There's a continued need for overarching and profound approaches to security. The con-cept of security needs to be thoroughly considered so that issues with an ever-increas-ing complexity and interconnectivity can be understood and dealt with. The nature of security and the various aspects of threats should be considered by examining different definitions of security. This book covers researches from different perspectives and disciplines upon migration by various experts. The contributors make different and rigorous analyses of all areas influenced by migration in order to be one of the new reliable source about the immi-gration studies with various dimensions.

Originally published in 1990 this book provides an authoritative and detailed account of the initiatives of US state governments with science and technology programs designed to foster economic growth. Two key questions are posed: Do state governments have policy instruments that are sufficiently powerful to affect thelevels and growth rates of their regional economies? and Are national and global economic forces so powerful that they render state action ineffective? Several subsidiary themes are discusses in this context, namely: the most commonly used policy instruments, the impacts on federalism and on governance and how well the universities and other educational institutions serve the economic activities imposed on them.

Originally published in 1972 this book examines technological forecasting and assesses its merits and limitations and possible uses for society, government, industry and the military. Although technological forecasting was in its infancy when this book was originally published, it has now become part of mainstream social and economic planning.

Today’ s financial markets are characterised by a large number of participants, with different appetites for risk, different time horizons, different motivations and reactions to unexpected news. The mathematical techniques and models used in the forecasting of financial markets have therefore grown ever more sophisticated as traders, analysts and investors seek to gain an edge on their competitors. Written by leading international researchers and practitioners, this book focuses on three major themes of today’ s state of the art financial research: modelling with high frequency data, the information content of volatility markets, and applications of neural networks and genetic algorithms to financial time series. Forecasting Financial Markets includes empirical applications to present the very latest thinking on these complex techniques, including:

• High frequency exchange rates

• Intraday volatility

• Autocorrelation and variance ratio tests

• Conditional volatility

• GARCH processes

• Chaotic systems

• Nonlinearity

• Stochastic and EXPAR models

• Artificial neural networks

• Genetic algorithms

First published in 1980, this compact and useful book uses the earliest volumes of government-published statistics, and with the aid of computer-generated cartography, transforms the numbers there reported into an arrondissement-by-arrondissement comparative picture of French agriculture in the mid-1830s. Clout reviews problems of rapid population growth, scarcely adequate domestic food supplies and primitive systems of transportation, while attention is drawn to spatial variations in agricultural activity and productivity. Commercial, high-yielding farming was best developed in a northern multi-nuclear region, comprising of Ile-de-France, Normandy and Nord, with smaller foci of commercial orientation along an eastern axis from Alsace to Marseilles and in western areas from the Loire to the middle of the Garonne valley. Clout concludes that the revolutionary promise of national economic unity was far from being realised in the 1830s and was not to be achieved until national systems of transport and education were firmly established later in the nineteenth century.