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Books > Business & Economics > Economics > Economic forecasting
All the numbers on South Africa’s crisis dashboard are blinking red. The economy is failing to grow and more and more young people find themselves on the outside looking in as education falters and jobs disappear. Energy and transport are in crisis. Governance is floundering as debt mounts and government runs out of money. Better Choices is a collection by South Africa’s top thinkers on the political economy, providing an unflinching account of the myriad challenges the country faces. The picture that emerges is of a nation on the brink of a catastrophic slide into failure unless better, if tough, policy choices are made. As stark as these problems are, their solutions are tantalisingly close at hand. The chapters in this book outline exactly the solutions – those ‘better choices’– that need to be made by leadership to alter the country’s bleak trajectory. South Africa cannot talk its way out of trouble. Key to success is removing the sources of friction – the red tape, over-regulation and rents – that slow down investment. This is only possible if a more effective, focused government acts decisively. Compiled by The Brenthurst Foundation, Africa’s leading think tank on economic development, Better Choices is for those who want to build a positive, inclusive future for South Africa.
Closing the Gap is an accessible overview of the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) and the impact it is set to have on various sectors in South Africa and Africa. It explores the previous industrial revolutions that have led up to this point and outlines South Africa’s position been through each one. With a focus on artificial intelligence as a core concept in understanding the 4IR, this book uses familiar concepts to explain artificial intelligence, how it works and how it can be used in banking, mining, medicine and many other fields. Written from an African perspective, Closing the Gap addresses the challenges and fears around the 4IR by pointing to the opportunities presented by new technologies and outlining some of the challenges and successes to date
Futureproof your business, career and family with these invaluable
insights. This is an essential compendium of trends for anyone who is
anxious or excited about thriving in the uncertain decade
ahead. Along with accompanying actionable insights to pre-empt and
solve the challenges and problems they represent to the serious South
African with business, career and family interests to look after, it's
a must-have.
The Covid-19 pandemic has had an immeasurable effect on the world and redefined for us what is truly important. We’re witnessing a reversion to the basics of Maslow’s hierarchy as we find ourselves seeking to safeguard our physical, emotional, mental and spiritual wellbeing. Why? Because we no longer have the luxury of certainty. For generations, we’ve grown up believing that studying for a defined career and securing a job would guarantee our future. This 'essential' and predictable sequence marked us as productive members of society. But is our society even a healthy one? Are we heading in the right direction or have we been blinded by collective greed and delusion? How can we justify such inequality and environmental degradation in the world? These were questions being asked even before Covid struck – and now the pandemic has accelerated a desire for change. For all the stress and disruption Covid has caused, we now have a gilt-edged opportunity to change things for the better. Now is the time for each of us to cultivate new skills, qualities and characteristics to bring about the collective future we want. FutureNEXT plots a new way forward by combining the accessible thinking of future strategist John Sanei with the deeply thought economic and philosophical principles of Dr Iraj Abedian. The result is a book about the things we need to rethink so that we may step confidently into the future. About the new roles and responsibilities we will each have as consumers, employees, employers, entrepreneurs and executives. And ultimately about reimagining a more harmonious, systemically fair and sustainable, yet prosperous world.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is upending life, work, and play as we know it … and it’s only just getting started. The rise of AI is a milestone on par with the discovery of fire, the invention of the wheel, and the creation of the internet. In short, AI is going to change everything. For some, that’s an exciting prospect. For others, it’s terrifying. However you feel about AI, there’s no escaping it, whether you’re in a global metropolis or a farmer in rural KwaZulu-Natal. Dr Mark Nasila has been watching AI’s ascent for over a decade, studying its effects on everything from agriculture and aviation to healthcare, education, entertainment, crime prevention, energy management, policy creation, finance, and anything in between, and applying them to his role at one of South Africa’s most successful financial institutions, First National Bank, a division of FirstRand Group. African Artificial Intelligence is a comprehensive and fascinating journey, tracing the rise of AI and its evolution into the emerging technology underpinning all others – from connected devices and smart chatbots to the metaverse. Mark combines unexpected use cases and tales of cutting-edge innovation with a unique and potent argument: harnessing AI to solve Africa’s problems requires embracing it from an African perspective. African nations can’t afford to simply import AI solutions from afar. Instead, Mark contends, they need to rework, remix, and refine AI so it’s able to meet uniquely African challenges in uniquely African ways, and to take advantage of the once-in-a-generation opportunity AI represents for every industry, sector, and person, everywhere.
From one of tech's boldest thinkers and his longtime deputy, this is a sweeping indictment of Silicon Valley and treatise on how the West has slid into a culture of complacency - even as we enter a new era of mounting global threats. Once upon a time, the most brilliant engineering minds once collaborated with government to advance world-changing technologies. Their efforts secured the West's dominance and kept its people safe. Now, our relationship with new technologies has become shallow-and the repercussions could not be more perilous. Today, engineers and founders build photo-sharing apps and marketing algorithms, furthering the ambitions of whoever can exploit them. This complacency has spread into academia, politics, and the boardroom. The result? An entire generation for whom the narrow-minded pursuit of the whims of a late capitalist economy has become their calling. In this groundbreaking treatise, one of tech's boldest thinkers and his longtime deputy offer a searing critique of our collective abandonment of ambition. Palantir co-founder and CEO Alexander C. Karp and Nicholas W. Zamiska argue that in order for the West to retain its global edge-and preserve the freedoms we take for granted-the software industry must renew its commitment to addressing our most urgent challenges, including the new arms race of artificial intelligence. Governmen , in turn, must embrace the most effective features of the engineering mindset that have propelled Silicon Valley's success. Above all, leaders must reject intellectual fragility and preserve space for ideological confrontation. A willingness to risk the disapproval of the crowd, Karp and Zamiska contend, has everything to do with technological and economic outperformance. At once iconoclastic and rigorous, this book will also lift the veil on Palantir and its broader political project from the inside, offering a passionate call for the West to wake up to our new reality.
Industrial psychologist and award-winning business coach Kathi Hyde and her clients have proven that you can start over or step up, even in hard times, to build a business that achieves the results you deserve, brings out the best and allows you to live life well. Kathi’s passion to help small businesses succeed to international standards (irrespective of where they find themselves geographically) and her love for the people who start and run them, have helped lead her clients to record success, game-changing personal growth, contentment, and real results time and again. Using vignettes of her own story as a backdrop, Kathi shares proven step-by-step strategies to help existing and new business owners achieve the same results – no matter where they are in their life or business journey. This book considers both the business owner and the business. Part One prepares readers mentally and emotionally to overcome their setbacks and take on the mantle of being a business owner. It also helps them work out the ‘what’ and the ‘why’ of starting or growing their business. Part Two provides the practical business skills and know-how to build a profitable, resilient and rewarding business that delivers. Based on sound business principles and practices, and packed with wisdom, anecdotes, strategies, practical examples, motivation, and the insight and experience gained from Kathi’s more than 30-year involvement with business across a range of industries in developed and developing countries, Peace By Piece is a coach-come-business-school in a book. It’ll help readers create peace from the pieces and guide them in laying the foundations of a fulfilling business that serves them and those they love and serve.
In this fourth volume of The Deals of Warren Buffett, we trace Buffett’s journey as he made Berkshire Hathaway the most respected company in the world. When we left Buffett at the end of Volume 3 towards the end of the 1990s, he was leading the largest corporation in America and his personal fortune had reached $40 billion. In this enthralling next instalment, we follow Buffett’s investment deals over the first few years of the 21st century, as Berkshire grew to become a giant with annual profits north of $4 billion. Buffett, then in his early 70s, was still tap dancing to work, thoroughly enjoying analysing companies, finding bargains and interacting with his growing team of managers. By studying the decision-making that went into his investment deals and the successful and unsuccessful outcomes, we can learn from Buffett and become better investors ourselves. During this period, exploiting the low prices following the dot-com crash, Buffett made investments in the following companies: MidAmerican Energy, CORT, Moody’s, H&R Block, Shaw Industries, Star Furniture, Jordan’s Furniture, Ben Bridge Jeweler, Justin Boot, Acme Brick, Benjamin Moore and CTB. For each of these deals, investing expert and Buffett historian Glen Arnold dives into unprecedented detail to analyse the investment rationale, the stories of the individuals involved and, where possible, the profits Buffett made.
A fresh, revealing, and myth-busting guide to the ins and outs of inflation from two leading political economists. Inflation is back, and its impact can be felt everywhere, from the grocery store to the mortgage market to the results of elections around the world. What's more, tariffs and trade wars threaten to accelerate inflation again. Yet the conventional wisdom about inflation is stuck in the past. Since the 1970s, there has only really been one playbook for fighting inflation: raise interest rates, thereby creating unemployment and a recession, which will lower prices. But this simple story hides a multitude of beliefs about why prices go up and how policymakers can wrestle them back down, beliefs that are often wrong, damaging, and have little empirical basis. Leading political economists Mark Blyth and Nicolò Fraccaroli reveal why inflation really happens, challenge how we think about it, and argue for fresh approaches to combat it. With accessible and engaging commentary, and a good dose of humor, Blyth and Fraccaroli bring the complexities of economic policy and inflation indices down to earth. Policymakers around the world may have pulled off a so-called "soft landing," but Inflation warns they must update their thinking. Now tariffs, climate shocks, demographic change, geopolitical tensions, and politicians promising to upend the global order are all combining to create a more inflationary future, making a new paradigm for understanding inflation urgently necessary. Astute, timely, and engaging, Inflation is a must-read for anyone seeking to understand the forces shaping our economy and politics.
Databook of Surface Modification Additives, Second Edition contains data on ten groups of additives, including anti-scratch and mar-preventing additives, additives for surface tension reduction and wetting, hydrophobization additives, gloss enhancement and surface matting additives, additives for the formation of tack-free surface and tackifiers, and stain inhibiting additives. The information on each is divided into five sections, including General Information, Physical-Chemical Properties, Health and Safety, Ecological Properties, and Use and Performance. This data is provided for approximately 360 of the most important surface modification additives produced and used today. This databook will be an extremely useful resource for engineers, researchers and technicians interested in using additives to modify and improve the surface properties of materials.
This book examines the main causes of financial instability and highlights that, with the exception of wars and pandemics, the financial system is the source of the crisis, not just a means of spreading it, as most mainstream experts believe. Based on the following findings, the innovative sections of this book provide academics and policymakers with important and practical knowledge: because negative shifts in the financial system precede recessions, financial indicators can predict the onset of a crisis much earlier than real variables; the proposed recession forecasting model can predict the emergence of the crisis a month in advance. When the economy's sensitivity to the financial system is reduced, there will be only modest negative economic growth and no true recessions.
Discussing the Spanish Flu, HIV/AIDs, SARS and Ebola against the background of Covid-19, Pandemic Economics demonstrates how scientists consistently warned the world about pandemics, and how, despite this, the possibility of global lockdown caused unprecedented economic policies and ruin. The book prepares for the next pandemic, that unquestionably will arrive, the impact of which is predicted to potentially exceed that of the current Covid-19 wreckage. Highlighting how economic theory can anticipate a pandemic's impact despite the uncertainty and unreliability of traditional statistics, Peter van Bergeijk assesses the lack of preparation by international economic institutions and the ability for humanity to deeply hurt the economy by its response to infectious disease. Chapters offer an overview and critical analysis of global non-pharmaceutical interventions and economic policies in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Looking forward, the book investigates the economic impact, policy (in)effectiveness and resilience in different social contexts, illustrating a pandemic trilemma of health, freedom and the economy. It suggests how to prepare for the next pandemic at the individual level, in city planning, nationally, internationally and globally, with a focus on analysing the impact of pandemics from a global perspective. Pandemic Economics will be a stimulating read for (health) economics and development studies scholars as it provides a historic overview of the uneven impact of pandemics, with up to date studies of the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic. The forward-looking suggestions for economic policies and preparations for future pandemics will also make this an important read for economic and health policy makers.
This timely book sets out how ordinary citizens can reform our broken economy. Politicians curry favour with interest groups such as trade unions, public service workers, teachers and the unemployed, instead of serving the general public. Trade unions exploit labour laws to get benefits for their members without increasing productivity. Teachers enjoy sheltered employment without producing properly qualified learners. Formal employees abuse the bargaining-council system to push up labour costs imposed on employers and employees outside the system. Notoriously unproductive “public servants” enjoy above-market salaries in a growing sector that creates little to no economic value. Unemployed people, of whom there are 11 million, form the bedrock of our community of 18 million recipients of welfare grants. They produce nothing in return. The glue holding together all these forms of rent-seeking, is centralised government power, undergirded by laws and government spending. The author highlights that the system of rent-seeking has damaged moral fabric in this country, eating at it like a virus. It does not let go, because it contains the seed of destruction of any argument deployed towards dismantling it. Rent-seeking is embarked upon – invariably almost – in the name of some noble cause or other. And noble causes demand that we be on the right side of them, or risk being tainted as unfair, oppressive, right-wing or simply bad. Who in their right mind doesn’t want to protect workers against unemployment or exploitation, advance previously disadvantaged black citizens, improve the matric pass rate, help the poor with housing and money, build a strong public service?
The world is emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic, more fragmented and further away from the more equal and equitable iteration imagined in 2015 when the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were conceptualised. As we hurtle, at seemingly lightning speed, towards the 2030 deadline to achieve these goals, the urgency is palpable. Although we have certainly strayed further away from the targets, there is still time to act in order to ensure that we inch closer to this vision. Tshilidzi Marwala paints a stark, and often grim, picture of our current context – one defined by monumental setbacks in the SDGs. Yet, as he carves out each developmental goal and its implications, it is apparent that there are tangible solutions that can be implemented, now. Tshilidzi’s assertion that now is the time to act is backed by intricate and actionable data with a simple mission statement: we must heal the future. He offers a new narrative that addresses how we can translate the latent potential that exists through technology, innovation and new approaches to leadership and policy-making, to deal with, among others, poverty eradication, joblessness, an education system in crisis, declining economies and food insecurity. Heal our World is a deep-dive into the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly relating to the African context, and looks toward securing a future in which our divisions are blurred, and our goals almost seem in reach again.
A "quick look up guide," Electricity Cost Modeling Calculations places the relevant formulae and calculations at the reader's finger tips. In this book, theories are explained in a nutshell and then the calculation is presented and solved in an illustrated, step-by-step fashion. A valuable guide for new engineers, economists (or forecasters), regulators, and policy makers who want to further develop their knowledge of best practice calculations techniques or experienced practitioners (and even managers) who desire to acquire more useful tips, this book offers expert advice for using such cost models to determine optimally-sized distribution systems and optimally-structured power supplying entities. In other words, this book provides an Everything-that-you-want-to-know-about-cost-modelling-for-electric-utilities (but were afraid to ask) approach to modelling the cost of supplying electricity. In addition, the author covers the concept of multiproduct and multistage cost functions, which are appropriate in modelling the cost of supplying electricity. The author has done all the heavy number-crunching, and provides the reader with real-world, practical examples of how to properly quantify the costs associated with providing electric service, thus increasing the accuracy of the results and support for the policy initiatives required to ensure the competitiveness of the power suppliers in this new world in which we are living. The principles contained herein could be employed to assist in the determination of the cost-minimizing amount of output (i.e., electricity), which could then be used to determine whether a merger between two entities makes sense (i.e., would increase profitability). Other examples abound: public regulatory commissions also need help in determining whether mergers (or divestitures) are welfare-enhancing or not; ratemaking policies depend on costs and properly determining the costs of supplying electric (or gas, water, and local telephone) service. Policy makers, too, can benefit in terms of optimal market structure; after all, the premise of deregulation of the electric industry was predicated on the idea that generation could be deregulated. Unfortunately, the economies of vertical integration between the generation.
Succinct and understandable, this book is a step-by-step guide to the mathematics and construction of electrical load forecasting models. Written by one of the world's foremost experts on the subject, Electrical Load Forecasting provides a brief discussion of algorithms, their advantages and disadvantages and when they are best utilized. The book begins with a good description of the basic theory and models needed to truly understand how the models are prepared so that they are not just blindly plugging and chugging numbers. This is followed by a clear and rigorous exposition of the statistical techniques and algorithms such as regression, neural networks, fuzzy logic, and expert systems. The book is also supported by an online computer program that allows readers to construct, validate, and run short and long term models.
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