This book assembles key texts in the theory and applications of the Structural Econometric Time Series Analysis (SEMTSA) approach. The theory and applications of these procedures to a variety of econometric modeling and forecasting problems as well as Bayesian and non-Bayesian testing, shrinkage estimation and forecasting procedures are presented and applied. Finally, attention is focused on the effects of disaggregation on forecasting precision.

Handbook of Economic Expectations discusses the state-of-the-art in the collection, study and use of expectations data in economics, including the modelling of expectations formation and updating, as well as open questions and directions for future research. The book spans a broad range of fields, approaches and applications using data on subjective expectations that allows us to make progress on fundamental questions around the formation and updating of expectations by economic agents and their information sets. The information included will help us study heterogeneity and potential biases in expectations and analyze impacts on behavior and decision-making under uncertainty.

Using data science in order to solve a problem requires a scientific mindset more than coding skills. Data Science for Supply Chain Forecasting, Second Edition contends that a true scientific method which includes experimentation, observation, and constant questioning must be applied to supply chains to achieve excellence in demand forecasting. This second edition adds more than 45 percent extra content with four new chapters including an introduction to neural networks and the forecast value added framework. Part I focuses on statistical "traditional" models, Part II, on machine learning, and the all-new Part III discusses demand forecasting process management. The various chapters focus on both forecast models and new concepts such as metrics, underfitting, overfitting, outliers, feature optimization, and external demand drivers. The book is replete with do-it-yourself sections with implementations provided in Python (and Excel for the statistical models) to show the readers how to apply these models themselves. This hands-on book, covering the entire range of forecasting-from the basics all the way to leading-edge models-will benefit supply chain practitioners, forecasters, and analysts looking to go the extra mile with demand forecasting.

In Executive Salaries In South Africa: Who Should Have a Say on Pay?, the 2012 executive pay packages of 50 of South Africa’s largest and most influential listed companies are examined.

A 2006 study by Crotty and Bonorchis revealed that, on average, the CEOs got paid more than R15 million a year – more than 700 times the minimum wage in certain industries. The authors predicted that without government intervention, executive packages would continue to sky-rocket. Unfortunately these predictions have come true, despite employment equity measures and changes to corporate governance requirements in King III. The average cash and benefits package of the 50 CEOs studied in 2012 came to almost R13.1 million and once the gains on the vesting and exercise of share options is included, this average rises steeply to almost R49 million.

South Africa’s widening income inequality and its history of racism, poverty and social unrest demand that something more be done to reverse this trend. But what will it take for companies to rein in excessive executive salaries? In Executive Salaries In South Africa we consider these questions:

• How do you strengthen the shareholder’s say on pay to ensure that the board of directors responsible for setting pay take into account multiple stakeholder interests?
• Should the courts, the Department of Labour, employees, the tax man or the remaining 99% of society have a say on what the 1% are being paid?
• How do you modify corporate governance standards, the tax code and labour legislation to achieve these goals?
• How do we turn shareholders into activists and empower the workforce?
• Is change only possible if a more fundamental shift in attitudes is achieved?

This book addresses these pressing issues and considers possible mechanisms to rein in excessive executive pay. Without these interventions, South Africa will continue on a path of instability and unrest, while the rich get richer and the poor become poorer.

This book, and its companion volume in the Econometric Society Monographs series (ESM number 32), present a collection of papers by Clive W. J. Granger. His contributions to economics and econometrics, many of them seminal, span more than four decades and touch on all aspects of time series analysis. The papers assembled in this volume explore topics in causality, integration and cointegration, and long memory. Those in the companion volume investigate themes in causality, integration and cointegration, and long memory. The two volumes contain the original articles as well as an introduction written by the editors.

This book, and its companion volume, present a collection of papers by Clive W.J. Granger. His contributions to economics and econometrics, many of them seminal, span more than four decades and touch on all aspects of time series analysis. The papers assembled in this volume explore topics in spectral analysis, seasonality, nonlinearity, methodology, and forecasting. Those in the companion volume investigate themes in causality, integration and cointegration, and long memory. The two volumes contain the original articles as well as an introduction written by the editors.

This book, and its companion volume, present a collection of papers by Clive W.J. Granger. His contributions to economics and econometrics, many of them seminal, span more than four decades and touch on all aspects of time series analysis. The papers assembled in this volume explore topics in causality, integration and cointegration, and long memory. Those in the companion volume investigate themes in causality, integration and cointegration, and long memory. The two volumes contain the original articles as well as an introduction written by the editors.

In 2050 there will be 9.3 billion people alive - compared with 7 billion today - and the number will still be rising. The population aged over sixty-five will have more than doubled, to more than 16 per cent; China's GDP will be 80 per cent more than America's; and the number of cars on India's roads will have increased by 3,880 per cent. And, in 2050 it should be clear whether we are alone in the universe. What other megachanges can we expect - and what will their impact be? This comprehensive and compelling book will cover the most significant trends that are shaping the coming decades, with each of its twenty chapters elegantly and authoritatively outlined by Economist contributors, and rich in supporting facts and figures. It will chart the rise and fall of fertility rates across continents; how energy resources will change in light of new technology, and how different nations will deal with major developments in science and warfare. Megachange is essential reading for anyone who wants to know what the next four decades hold in store.

This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.

The future is an uncertain, uncomfortable prospect for employees, employers and society at large. A flurry of unprecedented events have proven that, despite what some politicians and economists may tell us, the future is not set in stone. Instead, it is constantly being shaped and redefined by the everyday decisions of individuals and organizations.

In light of this uncertainty, The Future Starts Now looks toward the various innovations and technologies that may shape our future. Authors Theo Priestley and Bronwyn Williams have brought together the world's leading futurists to articulate and clarify the current trajectories in technology, economics, politics and business.

This is a comprehensive history of tomorrow, exploring groundbreaking topics such as AI, privacy, education and the future of work. While the guidance, insight and predictions are fascinating for anyone curious about what the future may hold, the book also functions as an invaluable guide for business professionals looking to steer their career or their organization with foresight and confidence.

A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. * Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting * Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis * Combines forecasts to improve accuracy * Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes.

Global construction data is vital for contractors, governments, international organisations, policy makers, academic researchers and statisticians. As the global population of the world expands, the sustainability of the built environment raises the political agenda and the need to manage infrastructure and buildings in both urban and rural contexts becomes ever more pressing. How much more can the built environment grow and how can it be managed sustainably? This edited volume addresses how we can find a possible way through the inconsistencies between national construction data sets to devise a consistent approach to national construction data to further the global sustainability agenda and inform policy making. This search begins in Part I, which looks at the methods and definitions used in construction statistics in different countries. Part II considers examples of different types of construction data from the cost of materials, measuring work on high rise buildings and existing stock. In Part III, the authors consider construction data internationally, beginning with the problem of comparing data in different countries using exchange rates and purchasing power parities (PPPs), comparing innovation processes in different countries and looking at the provision of building design internationally. In Part IV, the international theme is continued by comparing accounting practices and company performance in different countries and concludes with an international comparison of construction industries. This book raises awareness of the significance of the construction industry globally and the importance of data to measure it. It informs the discussion of the best ways of handling the consequences of policies affecting the built environment and the effect of the built environment on the rest of the economy and society. It is essential reading for international economists, construction industry consultants, policy makers, construction statisticians and academics.

In the completely revised second edition of this highly praised book, Susumu Yabuki, one of Japan's leading China experts, and Stephen M. Harner, A Shanghai-based investment banker, present a comprehensive and accessible analysis of China's political economy.The authors provide dozens of easy-to-grasp and up-to-date graphs, charts, tables, and maps to illustrate the reality of China, as they explain and comment on political, economic, financial and trade trends.Placing issues in historical perspective, and with a view to trends into the twenty-first century, the authors survey the realities of China's area and population, agriculture, energy needs, pollution, industrial structure, township and village enterprises, state-owned enterprise reform, unemployment, economic regions, foreign investment, state finances, fiscal and monetary policy, China's financial institutions, foreign financial institutions in China, stock markets, international finance, balance of payments and exchange rate policy, corporate finance, the role of Shanghai, government institution reform, foreign trade, the roles of Hong Kong and Taiwan, U.S.-China relations, and Japan-China relations.Useful as an introduction to China's economics, finance, and politics for students, and as a desktop reference volume for corporations, organizations, and individuals considering doing business in China, this unique study fills a genuine gap in the literature.

'A dazzling history of the future - Hamish McRae has given us a tour de force' Tim Harford What will the world look like in 2050? How will complex forces of change - demography, the environment, finance, technology and ideas about governance - affect our global society? And how, with so many unknowns, should we think about the future? One of Europe's foremost voices on global trends in economics, business and society, Hamish McRae takes us on an exhilarating journey through the next thirty years. Drawing on decades of research, and combining economic judgement with historical perspective, Hamish weighs up the opportunities and dangers we face, analysing the economic tectonic plates of the past and present in order to help us chart a map of the future. A bold and vital vision of our planet, The World in 2050 is an essential projection for anyone worried about what the future holds. For if we understand how our world is changing, we will be in a better position to secure our future in the decades to come.

Sustainability Accounting and Integrated Reporting deals with organizations' assessment, articulation and disclosure of their social and environmental impact on various groups in society. There is increasingly an understanding that financial information does not sufficiently discharge organizational accountability to members of society who are demanding an account of the social and environmental impacts of companies' and other organizations' activities. As a result, organizations report ever more social and environmental information, and there are simultaneous movements towards providing the information in an integrated fashion, showing how social and environmental activities influence each other, members of society and the financial aims of the organization. The book Sustainability Accounting and Integrated Reporting provides a broad and comprehensive review of the field, focusing on the interconnection between different elements of these topics, often dealt with in isolation. The book examines the accounting involved in the collection and analysis of data, control processes over the data, how information is reported to external parties, and the assurance of the information being reported. The book thereby provides an overview useful to practitioners (including sustainability managers, consultants, members of the accounting profession, and other assurance providers), academics, and students.

The definitive guide to technical analysis . . . written from a trader's perspective

With the keen insight and perspective that have made him a market legend, Jack D. Schwager explores, explains, and examines the application of technical analysis in futures trading. In the most in-depth, comprehensive book available, the bestselling investment writer demonstrates why he is one of today's foremost authorities. Here is the one volume no trader should be without.

"Jack Schwager has accomplished the rarest of feats in this book. He has presented material in a way that both the professional and layman can profit from. It is a must read for traders on all levels." — Stanley Druckenmillern Managing Director, Soros Fund Management

"Jack Schwager's Technical Analysis is exactly what one should expect from this expert on futures. The book is comprehensive, thoroughly insightful, and highly educational. I recommend it to the beginner as well as the expert." — Leo Melamed Chairman, Sakura Dellsher, Inc.

"Jack Schwager possesses a remarkable ability to extract the important elements of complex, market-timing approaches, and distill that into something intelligible and useful. Not only is he able to present these ideas cleverly in an easily understood format, but he also demonstrates their application to the markets with clarity and precision." — Thomas R. DeMark Author, The New Science of Technical Analysis

"Jack Schwager's book, A Complete Guide to the Futures Markets, was one of the best books I have read on futures trading. We give a copy of it to all our new analysts. Jack's latest work, Technical Analysis, looks like a gold mine of information, adding significantly to the existing investment literature." — Monroe Trout President, Trout Trading Management Co.

Jack Schwager is one of the most important and visible figures in the futures industry today. His Market Wizards and The New Market Wizards are two of the bestselling finance titles of all time. Now, in the latest volume in the Schwager on Futures series, Technical Analysis, Schwager has created the most comprehensive guide ever for using technical analysis for futures trading. What makes Technical Analysis unique, besides its in-depth coverage, is that it is written from a trader's perspective. Schwager doesn't merely cover the subject, he explores what works and doesn't work in the real world of trading.

Contains a comprehensive guide to chart analysis written with a particular focus on trading applications

• Includes a separate 200+ page section illustrating the use of chart analysis in the real world
• Details and illustrates several original trading systems
• Includes a self-contained primer on cyclical analysis
• Describes popular oscillators, the pitfalls in their common use, and guidelines to their successful application in trading
• Explains the concept and use of "continuous futures" and compares 10-year continuous futures charts with conventional nearest futures charts for all major U.S. futures markets
• Contains a section on trading strategy and philosophy, including over 100 trading tips

Hundreds of charts, tables, and examples illustrate key points throughout, while the text is written in the informative, insightful, and nontechnical style that has made Jack Schwager one of the most highly regarded and bestselling investment authors ever. This invaluable book by one of the world's foremost authorities is destined to become the premier industry guide on technical analysis for many years to come.

Applied Econometrics: A Practical Guide is an extremely user-friendly and application-focused book on econometrics. Unlike many econometrics textbooks which are heavily theoretical on abstractions, this book is perfect for beginners and promises simplicity and practicality to the understanding of econometric models. Written in an easy-to-read manner, the book begins with hypothesis testing and moves forth to simple and multiple regression models. It also includes advanced topics: Endogeneity and Two-stage Least Squares Simultaneous Equations Models Panel Data Models Qualitative and Limited Dependent Variable Models Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Models Autocorrelation and ARCH/GARCH Models Unit Root and Cointegration The book also illustrates the use of computer software (EViews, SAS and R) for economic estimating and modeling. Its practical applications make the book an instrumental, go-to guide for solid foundation in the fundamentals of econometrics. In addition, this book includes excerpts from relevant articles published in top-tier academic journals. This integration of published articles helps the readers to understand how econometric models are applied to real-world use cases.

With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. A companion website with downloadable datasets, exercises and lecture slides rounds out the full learning package.

In Schwager on Futures: Technical Analysis, legendary market analyst Jack D. Schwager examines technical analysis in-depth, exploring what works and doesn't work in the real world of trading. Now, in the Study Guide to Accompany Technical Analysis, Thomas Bierovic, a highly renowned instructor, joined by Steven Turner and Jack Schwager, offers a class in the technical material presented in Technical Analysis.

The Study Guide is clearly organized parallel with Technical Analysis. Chapter by chapter, it provides questions and problems that help you practice applying the principles in the book, plus brief chapter summaries to reinforce major points. Answers are in the back, so you can check your work.

What better way to test your knowledge than by running through a series of questions and problems? Trading system development is enhanced once you are certain you understand the underlying indicators. Working through the Study Guide lets you test your aptitude before using the indicators to trade real-time. With the Study Guide, Technical Analysis will be an even more valuable trading companion and reference.

"It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, "Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things," provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape--but Fair doesn't stop there.
Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well--including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read "Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things" and find out
As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.

A smart trader needs to know what other traders are thinking and doing. Professional traders and investors use a wide range of indicators--some well-known, some not so well-known--to gauge the state of the market.
"Market Indicators" introduces the many key indicators used by professional traders and investors every day. Having stood the test of time, these indicators will alert the trader to market situations that offer the best chance to trade profitably.
Richard Sipley is a portfolio manager for Boston Private Bank and Trust Company, responsible for trading millions of dollars of assets. Sipley uses these indicators every day in his trading and investing, and he draws on that experience to explain what they are, how they work, and how to use them.

Applied Econometrics: A Practical Guide is an extremely user-friendly and application-focused book on econometrics. Unlike many econometrics textbooks which are heavily theoretical on abstractions, this book is perfect for beginners and promises simplicity and practicality to the understanding of econometric models. Written in an easy-to-read manner, the book begins with hypothesis testing and moves forth to simple and multiple regression models. It also includes advanced topics: Endogeneity and Two-stage Least Squares Simultaneous Equations Models Panel Data Models Qualitative and Limited Dependent Variable Models Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Models Autocorrelation and ARCH/GARCH Models Unit Root and Cointegration The book also illustrates the use of computer software (EViews, SAS and R) for economic estimating and modeling. Its practical applications make the book an instrumental, go-to guide for solid foundation in the fundamentals of econometrics. In addition, this book includes excerpts from relevant articles published in top-tier academic journals. This integration of published articles helps the readers to understand how econometric models are applied to real-world use cases.

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting is a blind refereed serial publication published on an annual basis. The objective of this research annual is to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making. (An accurate, robust forecast is critical to effective decision making.) It is the hope and direction of the research annual to become an applications and practitioner-oriented publication.
The topics will normally include sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgmentally-based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, forecasting for strategic business decisions, improvements in forecasting accuracy, and sales response models. It is both the hope and direction of the editorial board to stimulate the interest of the practitioners of forecasting to methods and techniques that are relevant.
In Volume 5, there are sections devoted to financial applications of forecasting, as well as demand forecasting. There is, also, a section on general business applications of forecasting, as well as one on forecasting methodologies.
*Presents state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making.
*Publishes annually

In his long-awaited and provocative book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future-offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century. The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era-with changes in store.