First published in 1980, this compact and useful book uses the earliest volumes of government-published statistics, and with the aid of computer-generated cartography, transforms the numbers there reported into an arrondissement-by-arrondissement comparative picture of French agriculture in the mid-1830s. Clout reviews problems of rapid population growth, scarcely adequate domestic food supplies and primitive systems of transportation, while attention is drawn to spatial variations in agricultural activity and productivity. Commercial, high-yielding farming was best developed in a northern multi-nuclear region, comprising of Ile-de-France, Normandy and Nord, with smaller foci of commercial orientation along an eastern axis from Alsace to Marseilles and in western areas from the Loire to the middle of the Garonne valley. Clout concludes that the revolutionary promise of national economic unity was far from being realised in the 1830s and was not to be achieved until national systems of transport and education were firmly established later in the nineteenth century.

This book gathers Polish and foreign scholars to consider diverse aspects of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). It examines key general areas such as the improvement of the position of the negotiating parties in the world economy, in politics and in international organisations. The contributors analyze possible acceleration of non-discriminatory liberalisation negotiations, creation of new international standards or reducing regulatory differences, such as "Investor-state dispute settlement" (ISDS), public health, geographical indications. The contributions focus also on specific issues, such as the impact of TTIP on Polish and EU economy, on merchandise and services trade, energy supply, research and development, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), or on the third parties.

Providing a practical introduction to state space methods as applied to unobserved components time series models, also known as structural time series models, this book introduces time series analysis using state space methodology to readers who are neither familiar with time series analysis, nor with state space methods. The only background required in order to understand the material presented in the book is a basic knowledge of classical linear regression models, of which brief review is provided to refresh the reader's knowledge. Also, a few sections assume familiarity with matrix algebra, however, these sections may be skipped without losing the flow of the exposition.
The book offers a step by step approach to the analysis of the salient features in time series such as the trend, seasonal, and irregular components. Practical problems such as forecasting and missing values are treated in some detail. This useful book will appeal to practitioners and researchers who use time series on a daily basis in areas such as the social sciences, quantitative history, biology and medicine. It also serves as an accompanying textbook for a basic time series course in econometrics and statistics, typically at an advanced undergraduate level or graduate level.

Growth miracles typically have been studied at the country level. The Making of Miracles in Indian States breaks from that tradition and studies three growth miracles in India at the level of the state: Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, and Gujarat. These are three of the largest and most diverse states in India. Andhra Pradesh is situated in the south of India, Bihar in the east, and Gujarat in the west. Bihar is the poorest among all states in India, Gujarat the third richest among the largest eighteen states, and Andhra Pradesh in the middle. Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat have long coastal lines while Bihar is landlocked. Yet, all of these states have grown at rates exceeding 8% for an entire decade in the 21st century. Despite many differences in the initial conditions, several common threads tie the high-growth experiences of the three states. First, accelerated growth has permitted acceleration in the growth of development expenditures in all three states, which has helped improve connectivity to markets. Alongside this growth, poverty has seen accelerated decline. Second, the composition of growth matters. Growth in high-value commodities such as fruits and vegetables, commercial crops, dairy, and animal husbandry in Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat has led to accelerated reduction in rural poverty. However, the failure of labor-intensive industry has stunted the migration of workers out of agriculture into industry. Third, the quality of leadership that brings improved governance with it is central to improved outcomes in the states. Visionary leaders--Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh, Nitish Kumar in Bihar, and Narendra Modi in Gujarat--played critical roles in the making of all three miracles. Fourth, the three studies also bring out the importance of pro-market reforms and the adoption of technology in development. Finally, the studies show that good economics is also good politics: voters reward the chief ministers who bring about significant improvement to the people's lives.

The role of information is central to the academic debate on finance. This book provides a detailed, current survey of theoretical research into the effect on stock prices of the distribution of information, comparing and contrasting major models. It examines theoretical models that explain bubbles, technical analysis, and herding behavior. It also provides rational explanations for stock market crashes. Analyzing the implications of asymmetries in information is crucial in this area. This book provides a useful survey for graduate students.

Originally published in 1990 this book provides an authoritative and detailed account of the initiatives of US state governments with science and technology programs designed to foster economic growth. Two key questions are posed: Do state governments have policy instruments that are sufficiently powerful to affect thelevels and growth rates of their regional economies? and Are national and global economic forces so powerful that they render state action ineffective? Several subsidiary themes are discusses in this context, namely: the most commonly used policy instruments, the impacts on federalism and on governance and how well the universities and other educational institutions serve the economic activities imposed on them.

"The key to investment success, if there be just one, is the ability to remain emotionally detached. That detachment is only achieved through confidence. That confidence is only arrived at through knowledge. That knowledge is arrived at through thought, study, hard work, and experience. In this book, I will try to impart the knowledge and experience I have acquired over the last thirty years." — Richard Arms from the Introduction to Trading Without Fear

Richard Arms' revolutionary theories have changed the way investors perceive the market. His expertise in the field of technical analysis has had significant impact, evidenced by the fact that his Equivolume charting system is now part of the most popular stock and futures software, and his Arms Index—also known as the Short-Term Trading Index or TRIN—has become one of the most important technical tools of Wall Street.

In Trading Without Fear, Richard Arms shows investors how to make sound investment decisions "without succumbing to those two very powerful emotions": fear and greed. Learning to control those emotions in ourselves—while recognizing them in others—empowers us to capitalize on that knowledge. The result is informed investment choices, tempered by caution, and fueled by confidence and a strong desire to succeed.

Arms' cogent examination of leading strategies will enable the average investor to master successfully what is widely regarded as one of the most reliable methods of long-term market forecasting: volume analysis. Volume analysis is rooted in a seminal Arms theory—that volume plays as significant a role in understanding the markets as price movement. And volume is affected by the emotions at work in the marketplace. "The market is very complex. It is pushed one way or the other in varying degrees as a result of individual decisions of millions of participants. Some of those partici-pants are acting logically and others are acting emotionally...it is the volume which is giving us the real picture of the emotions in the marketplace. Price tells us what is happening, but volume tells us how it is happening."

Trading Without Fear offers investors a trading discipline with in-depth coverage of:

• Technical vs. fundamental analysis
• Equivolume charting and the importance of the "Power Box"
• Ease of Movement and Volume Adjusted Moving Averages with new information not available anywhere else
• Market tides—VAMA and cycles
• The mechanics of buying
• Selling short—how and when to do it
• Closing out short positions

With his succinct analytical skills and unique approach, Richard Arms makes sophisticated investment strategies accessible to everyday, individual investors.

Trading Without Fear

"Mr. Arms elegantly combines many different aspects of volume analysis in this book. Volume is related to stock market breadth via the Arms Index, and to price via Equivolume charting. Volume Weighted Moving Averages and the Ease of Movement Indicator complete the picture. If you are interested in how to quantify the driving force of the market, this book is for you." — John Bollinger, CFA, CMT President, Bollinger Capital Management Editor, The Capital Growth Letter

"Analysts and traders will acquire confidence and control fear through carefully studying and applying the unique insights available in Trading Without Fear. This book sums up much of the inventive genius of Richard Arms, the 1995 winner of the coveted Market Technicians Award. The famed Arms Index and other unique indicators including Equivolume, Ease of Movement and Volume Cyclicacity are presented in clear terms and in a logical progression filled with penetrating insights into how to profit in the market." — Henry O. Pruden, PhD Professor, Golden Gate University Executive Director, Institute for Technical Market Analysts

China's future development is likely to have a huge impact on twenty-first century global outcomes. It is therefore surprising that, thus far, so little attention has been given to comparing and evaluating expert forecasts of China's future in the post-Mao era. This book presents an illuminating and comprehensive summary record of contrasting and competing expert forecasts and judgements about the major issues confronting China within four principal domains - political, economic, environmental, and international. After considering the principal forecasting methods available to experts, the author comments critically on the degree of success achieved in using those methods and emphasises the confusion created by the polarisation of opinion and by the failure of many experts to accept the high degree of uncertainty that characterises most of the key issues. The book recommends a new approach based on the study of a hierarchy of critical uncertainties and on continuing analysis of opposing expert opinions about these uncertainties. It emphasises the potential for both positive and negative outcomes for these critical uncertainties, and the importance of maximising the potential for positive outcomes through improved analytical and policy frameworks. Providing insights for specialists and non-specialists into the most critical issues that will determine China's future direction, this book will be of particular interest to students and scholars of political, economic, environmental, and international relations issues in China and Asia, as well as to readers in business and government.

This book provides an overview of Chinese RMB exchange markets and its risk management strategies. The view that RMB is playing an increasingly international role has been widely accepted by practitioners as well as scholars worldwide. Moreover, the Chinese government is opening the control of RMB exchange market step by step. However, some related topics are under heated debate, such as how to manage and warn of the currency crisis, what the trend of RMB exchange rate in the future is, and how to hedge the exchange risk in the process of RMB internationalization. In this book, we will give distinct answers to the above questions.

Every consumer in a modern economy is indirectly exposed to the work of a price reporting agency (PRA) each time they fill up their car, take a flight or switch on a light, and yet the general public is completely unaware of the existence of PRAs. Firms like Platts, Argus and ICIS, which are referenced every day by commodity traders and which influence billions of dollars of trade, are totally unfamiliar to consumers. The Price Reporters: A Guide to PRAs and Commodity Benchmarks brings the mysterious world of price reporting out of the shadows for the first time, providing a comprehensive guide to the agencies that set the world's commodity prices. This book explains the importance of PRAs to the global commodities industry, highlighting why PRAs affect every consumer around the world. It introduces the individual PRAs, their history and the current state of play in the industry, and also presents the challenges that the PRA industry is facing now and in the future, in particular how regulation might impact on the PRAs, their relationships with commodity exchanges, and their likely direction. This is the first-ever guide to PRAs and is destined to become the standard reference work for anyone with an interest in commodity prices and the firms that set them.

After impressive growth of about 10% per annum for three decades, China's visible signs of economic slowdown since 2008 have been subject to much contention. What causes the deceleration? What should we expect in an era of China's 6% growth? This book answers these questions in three parts. Although it is widely accepted that China can hardly continue its high-speed growth model, estimations for its future growth potential differ greatly. The first part of this book predicts China's growth to 2050, which considers both cross-country historical experiences and China's own demographic structure and employment participation features. In the second part, the book offers a comprehensive estimation of China's national and provincial total factor productivity (TFP) over the period of 1978 to 2014 based on comparable data. It then analyzes the causes of China's economic slowdown from a productivity point of view. Finally, this book correspondingly outlines policy recommendations, including supply-side structural reform and macroeconomic policy frameworks, to effectively address the issue of decline in both labor and labor productivity growth. This book will attract scholars and students of economics and China's economic studies.

Global Environmental Change and Agriculture offers a comprehensive perspective on the causes, consequences and possible policy solutions for climatic change as we move into the twenty-first century. It assesses the impact of potential future global climate change on agriculture and the need to sustain agricultural growth for economic development. The book begins by examining the role of international research institutions in overcoming environmental constraints on sustainable agricultural growth and economic development. The authors then discuss how agricultural research systems may be restructured to respond to global environmental problems such as climate change and loss of genetic diversity. The discussion then extends to consider environmental accounting and indexing, to illustrate how environmental quality can be included formally in measures of national income, social welfare and sustainability. The third part of the book focuses on the effects of and policy responses to climate change. Chapters examine the effect of climate change on production, trade, land use patterns and livelihoods. They consider impacts on the distribution of income between developed and developing countries and between different social classes within the developing world, where agriculture remains a major economic activity. Authors take on an economy-wide perspective to draw lessons for agricultural, trade, land use and tax policy. This book will be of special interest to agricultural, development and environmental economists as well as policy analysts in government and at international agencies confronting practical problems of environmental and economic assessment.

Before future-oriented information can be used as a basis for decision making in economics or business administration, it must be understood on a methodological level. This book provides decision makers with a thorough understanding of the possibilities offered by various forecasting methods as well as their limitations. If managers rely on a forecast with a long-term perspective to guide them in making short-term decisions, planning deficiencies will likely result. Likewise, if managers use short-term forecasts to inform their long-term strategic vision, failure could easily ensue. Graf provides the tools necessary to sidestep the common pitfall of using the wrong forecasting technique for the wrong purpose.

This is not a detailed examination of the mathematical and statistical tools of empirical economic research. Instead, forecasting methods are explained so that they can be understood by the managers who employ them in their decision making. Graf demonstrates that understanding and--in special cases--cooperation between forecast developers and users is crucial to creating an effective forecast that results in informed management decisions. He discusses traditional, long-term, macroeconomic, and global economic forecasting; the scenario technique as a central instrument of long-term forecasting; and short-term economic and market forecasting.

Countering the many claims that the best days of capitalism are over following the economic meltdown of 2008 onwards, this book provocatively argues that a new golden age of capitalism - or upwave - began around 2002, and despite the unstable markets in the western world of the past few years, this upwave will produce previously unseen levels of wealth creation during the next twenty years. Basing this theory on the commercialisation of new technologies and the growth of new markets, the author claims that these positive trends are key to economic recovery in the US, UK and Europe. It argues that the most serious problem facing some countries in the west is government debt and that macroeconomic policy is of limited use in flexible and adaptive economies, where innovation, entrepreneurship and private investment should be encouraged in a range of cities and city regions. This highly original book will interest those concerned with national economies, nation states and urban policy.

At the time in which this book was first published in 1992, there was a major concern with the macro-economic implications of fiscal imbalance. As the European economies moved closer to monetary union, and Germany grappled with the fiscal pressures of unification, deficits in the United States exceeded $300 billion. In this volume the authors address this issue, using both historical case-studies and cross-national comparisons. This book will be of interest to students of economics.

First Published in 1991. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.

Since 1945, the world has moved, haltingly but relentlessly, toward internationalism. And with the end of the Cold War and the apparent dominance of the West and its democratic and free-market systems, that march toward internationalism has proceeded apace, seemingly unstoppable. Or is it? With the Asian financial contagion spreading worldwide, the Russian democratic experiment coming undone, and cultural-ethnic violence flaring up around the world, one wonders.

Ambassador M DEGREESD/oller examines some of the major trends in the world system as we approach the new millennium: the stresses of globalization, the future role of the nation-state, the free-market system versus state-managed capitalism, and democratic pluralism versus Asian/Islamic/African/and other values. And he brings to this examination his background as a futurist, as a trade and economic affairs negotiator in the European Union, and as Ambassador to Singapore, one country where all these dynamics are at work. The larger question raised by Ambassador M DEGREESD/oller is: Are we poised on the brink of a new and truly internationalism millennium, or is this a sort of neo-Wilsonian phase destined for an abject and abrupt end? This book will be of interest to concerned citizens, futurists, and scholars and students of international relations around the world.

This analysis of macroeconomic policy, originally published in 1989, argues that key government objectives, such as reduced inflation, decreased unemployment and an adequate level of national saving can be achieved only by employing both monetary and fiscal policies, in conjunction with supply-side policies expressly designed to improve the workings of the labour market. Part 1 is a comparative analysis showing the effects of monetary and fiscal policy on the economy. Real-wage rigidity in the labour market is shown to have important consequences for the working of both types of policy, because it conditions the economy's response to tax changes. Part 2 presents an econometric model which combines consistent stock-flow accounts with a full range of expectational effects. Part 3 presents an innovative technique for solving rational expectations models with the need for arbitary terminal conditions.

Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of recent research with crucial implications for practical problems in forecasting. "Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty" presents findings from the recent literature and new findings in a way that will be very useful to academic researchers and practitioners alike.
Each chapter includes detailed empirical applications that demonstrate the usefulness (and limitations) of different methods for generating forecasts when structural breaks and model uncertainty are of significant concern. The authors describe in detail their methods and their results, and the data and programs are made available on a web site devoted to the book. The volume addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers many different methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.
* Part of the "Frontiers in Economics and Globaliaztion" series
* Authors are leading experts in the topics they survey and extend
* Supported by a website detailing the data and programs used

This volume, originally published in 1979, examines systematically the nature of control in both capitalist and socialist economies, develops a theoretical and applied framework which can embrace both macroeconomics and plannng and demonstates the essential unity of all forms of macroeconomic planning by the consistent application of basic economic principles. Firstly, the authors establish why societies feel a need for government control and examine the mechanisms by which such social decisions are reached. Next they examine the nature of economic data, the modelling of economic systems nad a review of practical policy goals and instruments. The book then reviews the basic theory of optimisation and elaborates it in the context of planning for growth, for stabilisation and under uncertainty. It closes with an analysis of practical planning based on French and Soviet experience.

This volume investigates the accuracy and dynamic performance of a high-frequency forecast model for the Japanese and United States economies based on the Current Quarter Model (CQM) or High Frequency Model (HFM) developed by the late Professor Emeritus Lawrence R. Klein. It also presents a survey of recent developments in high-frequency forecasts and gives an example application of the CQM model in forecasting Gross Regional Products (GRPs).

China's future development is likely to have a huge impact on twenty-first century global outcomes. It is therefore surprising that, thus far, so little attention has been given to comparing and evaluating expert forecasts of China's future in the post-Mao era. This book presents an illuminating and comprehensive summary record of contrasting and competing expert forecasts and judgements about the major issues confronting China within four principal domains - political, economic, environmental, and international. After considering the principal forecasting methods available to experts, the author comments critically on the degree of success achieved in using those methods and emphasises the confusion created by the polarisation of opinion and by the failure of many experts to accept the high degree of uncertainty that characterises most of the key issues. The book recommends a new approach based on the study of a hierarchy of critical uncertainties and on continuing analysis of opposing expert opinions about these uncertainties. It emphasises the potential for both positive and negative outcomes for these critical uncertainties, and the importance of maximising the potential for positive outcomes through improved analytical and policy frameworks. Providing insights for specialists and non-specialists into the most critical issues that will determine China's future direction, this book will be of particular interest to students and scholars of political, economic, environmental, and international relations issues in China and Asia, as well as to readers in business and government.

The book's main purposes are to determine what statistical and other information is needed to formulate both the objects and the means of government economic policy and then to ask what theoretical tools should be used in order to clarify the issues of economic policy. Inflationary gap analysis, national budgeting techniques and the theory of economic fluctuations are examined against the experience of a country in which they have been intelligently applied. The book gives a lively account of Swedish economic thinking and of the economic policy debates in Sweden since 1920, discusses the scope and limitations of national forecasting and budgeting and assesses the relative merits of general and detailed measures of economic policy.

This volume, originally published in 1997, examines the combined effect of financial instability and industrial restructuring on postwar economic growth and recession in the US. It sheds light on the fundamental question of whether or not these trends are positive for the economy as a whole. To explain the cyclical nature of investment and finance, institutional theory regarding financial instability is examined in depth and related to Minsky's analysis of investment behaviour. The author has created an empirical model of this behaviour which, he claims, accurately predicts historical consumption investment and GDP cycles.