Discussing economic theory and English economic history from the eighteenth century until the late 1970s this volume discusses among other things fixed capital and problems with the definition of the premodern economy as well as providing a chronology of 18th century business cycles.

This volume, originally published in 1997, examines the combined effect of financial instability and industrial restructuring on postwar economic growth and recession in the US. It sheds light on the fundamental question of whether or not these trends are positive for the economy as a whole. To explain the cyclical nature of investment and finance, institutional theory regarding financial instability is examined in depth and related to Minsky's analysis of investment behaviour. The author has created an empirical model of this behaviour which, he claims, accurately predicts historical consumption investment and GDP cycles.

This report, first published in 1977, explores several different approaches to the same question; namely, how severe will be the impact on key U.S. macro-economic variables of the transition from main reliance on oil and natural gas to other sources of energy? This book will be of interest to students of economics and environmental studies.

This book provides information on a statistical account and theoretical interpretation of Swedish business cycles since 1918 as well as a survey of the problems of economic policy, as revealed both in practice and in theoretical discussion, during the inter-war and post-war periods.

At the time in which this book was first published in 1987, mass unemployment had emerged as the dominant, most visible, problem of the West European economies. In this challenging discussion of ways to overcome unemployment Ciaran Driver stresses the importance of managed restructuring. This book is ideal for students of business and economics.

Energy price rises have been amongst the biggest change that has taken place in our society over the last few decades. Their impact, particularly when this book was first published in 1983, had a growing importance in social policy, practice and research, and fuel was, and still is, a major public issue. This collection of essays describes how any why domestic fuel prices have been rising faster than other prices and incomes, what impacts this has on domestic budgets, and the extent of 'fuel poverty'. The resulting problems of debts, disconnections, cold conditions and hypothermia are discussed by specialists in these fields. This book is ideal for students of economics and social policy.

This book, first published in 1992, examines the subject of foreign exchange market efficiency and, in particular, the effectiveness of central bank intervention in the market. This book is ideal for students of economics.

This report, first published in 1977, explores several different approaches to the same question; namely, how severe will be the impact on key U.S. macro-economic variables of the transition from main reliance on oil and natural gas to other sources of energy? This book will be of interest to students of economics and environmental studies.

Best-selling books such as Freakonomics and The Undercover Economist have paved the way for the flourishing economics-made-fun genre. While books like these present economics as a strong and explanatory science, the ongoing economic crisis has exposed the shortcomings of economics to the general public. In the face of this crisis, many people, including well-known economists such as Paul Krugman, have started to express their doubts about whether economics is a success as a science. As well as academic papers, newspaper columns with a large audience have discussed the failure of economic to predict and explain ongoing trends. The emerging picture is somewhat confusing: economics-made-fun books present economics as a method of thinking that can successfully explain everyday and "freaky" phenomena. On the other hand, however, economics seems to fail in addressing and explaining the most pressing matters related to the field of economics itself. This book explores the confusion created by this contradictory picture of economics. Could a science that cannot answer its own core questions really be used to explain the logic of everyday life? This book was originally published as a special issue of the Journal of Economic Methodology.

Originally published between 1925 and 1997 the volumes in this set: Discuss the Impacts of Profitability, Business Cycles and the Capital Stock on Productivity; Evaluate various approaches to managing the uncertainty inherent in the future course of the interest rate cycle; Examine the combined effect of financial instability and industrial restructuring on postwar economic growth and recession in the US; Determine what statistical and other information is needed to formulate both the objects and the means of government economic policy; Ask what theoretical tools should be used in order to clarify the issues of economic policy; Examine the sociological aspects of the business cycle.

For junior/senior undergraduates in a variety of fields such as economics, business administration, applied mathematics and statistics, and for graduate students in quantitative masters programs such as MBA and MA/MS in economics. A student-friendly approach to understanding forecasting. Knowledge of forecasting methods is among the most demanded qualifications for professional economists, and business people working in either the private or public sectors of the economy. The general aim of this textbook is to carefully develop sophisticated professionals, who are able to critically analyze time series data and forecasting reports because they have experienced the merits and shortcomings of forecasting practice.

How can we effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the 'wisdom of the crowd'? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies in providing, for example, improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services. The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza outbreaks to the spread of other infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like surveys, group deliberations, and expert opinion. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes. This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should appeal to all those with an interest in economics, forecasting or public policy, and in particular those with an interest in the study of money, investment and risk.

This title, first published in 1979, presents the Ph.D. thesis of the world-renowned economist and financial expert, Willem Buiter. In Part I, three alternative specifications of temporary equilibria in asset markets, including their implications for macroeconomic models, are discussed; Part II examines the long-term implications of some short-term macroeconomic models. The analysis of the theoretical foundations of 'direct crowding out' and 'indirect crowding out' is particularly prominent, with the result that a synthesis of short-term macroeconomic analysis and long-term growth theory is formulated. The traditional tools of comparative dynamics and stability analysis are employed frequently. However, it is also argued that the true scope of government policy can only be adequately evaluated with the aid of concepts such as dynamic and static controllability. Temporary Equilibrium and Long-Run Equilibrium is a valuable study, and relevant for all serious students of modern economic theory.

Computational intelligence, a sub-branch of artificial intelligence, is a field which draws on the natural world and adaptive mechanisms in order to study behaviour in changing complex environments. This book provides an interdisciplinary view of current technological advances and challenges concerning the application of computational intelligence techniques to financial time-series forecasting, trading and investment. The book is divided into five parts. The first part introduces the most important computational intelligence and financial trading concepts, while also presenting the most important methodologies from these different domains. The second part is devoted to the application of traditional computational intelligence techniques to the fields of financial forecasting and trading, and the third part explores the applications of artificial neural networks in these domains. The fourth part delves into novel evolutionary-based hybrid methodologies for trading and portfolio management, while the fifth part presents the applications of advanced computational intelligence modelling techniques in financial forecasting and trading. This volume will be useful for graduate and postgraduate students of finance, computational finance, financial engineering and computer science. Practitioners, traders and financial analysts will also benefit from this book.

The collection of chapters in Volume 43 Part B of Advances in Econometrics serves as a tribute to Professor M. Hashem Pesaran. Hashem is one of the most innovative, influential, and productive econometricians of his generation, with over 200 papers published in leading scientific journals to his credit along with highly influential books on both theoretical and applied topics, significantly pushing forward the frontiers of knowledge in econometrics and economics. Thanks to his profound and pioneering work on theoretical and empirical questions, the economics profession has gained a much better understanding of both the power and limitations of econometric analysis. Reflecting the diversity of Hashem's many contributions, this volume includes chapters on a wide variety of topics, including panel modelling, micro applications, and econometric methodology. The long list of topics includes studies analysing multiple treatment effects in panels, heterogeneity and aggregation, an exploration of the Orthogonal to Backwards Means (OBM) estimator, and an examination of potential reasons for anaemic productivity growth in Italy using recent dynamic heterogeneous panel data methods developed by Hashem Pesaran and his co-authors.

First published in 1986, this book discusses many important aspects of the theory and practice of Futures Markets. It describes how they, at the time, grew to be an increasingly important feature of the world's major financial centres. Indeed, they adopted the role of being efficient forward pricing mechanisms and this was reflected by the interest of economists in the study of risk, uncertainty and information. Here, the contributors focus on areas that were of concern in the late 1980s such as feasibility, forward pricing and returns, and the modelling of price determination in Futures Markets. Evidence is drawn from twenty-five different commodities representing all the major commodity groups; and from all the world's major centres of Futures Trading.

First published in 1972, this book provides an important critical review on the theory of futures trading. B. A. Goss looks at the work and ideas of Keynes and Hicks on futures, and considers how these have also been developed by Kaldor. He discusses the evolution of the concept of hedging in the context of buying forward into the markets, and considers theories of market and individual equilibrium. Goss draws on the work of other economists in this field, including Stein, Telser, Peston and L. L. Johnson, in order to illustrate the development of theory in futures trading. The book includes fifteen figures that illustrate diagrammatically the concepts involved, and the concluding section contains a series of problems for examination by the student.

Modern evolutionary economics is now nearly two decades old and in this excellent book, a distinguished group of evolutionary economists identify the most important developments and discuss the direction of future research. By moving away from traditional concerns with the operation of selection mechanisms towards a preoccupation with the manner in which the novelty and variety provide fuel for such mechanisms, the authors identify a key development in the field. Evolutionary economists have been drawn into the modern complexity science literature which attempts to provide an understanding of how and why 'complex adaptive systems' engage in processes of self-organization. The goal is to provide an integrated analysis of both selection and self-organization that is uniquely economic in orientation. After a brief overview of the many key achievements and continuing challenges, the first part of the book deals with theoretical perspectives, discussing institutional change, social constructions, complexity, selection and self-selection and the usefulness of theory. Part two deals with empirical perspectives and includes discussion of replicator dynamics, the measurement of heterogeneity and complexity, and modelling organizations as complex adaptive systems. This unique book will appeal to evolutionary and industrial economists and policymakers involved with issues of innovation and management scientists.

Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.

The definitive book on the Chinese Communist Party's extensive campaign over the last two decades to take the pole position of global dominance.

For several decades China's ascendancy has been supported by an astonishingly broad and deep portfolio of quiet coercion. Stories of the Chinese Communist Party's authoritarian reach are breathtaking - the gagging of sports stars and huge Western brands; Hollywood self-censorship; infrastructure deals in exchange for political loyalty in multilateral organizations; and of course - communications firms. But these are just the most visible examples.

Beijing Rules exposes the armoury of strategies with which China has exploited Western weakness to position itself as leader in the game of nations: tying market access to political acquiescence; punitive tariffs; online disinformation operations; use of private companies to spy on global users; leveraging vaccines for geopolitical gain; and the crushing of democracy in Hong Kong. With these weapons and dextrous manoeuvrings during the global pandemic, China positioned itself to take its place at the apex of world powers.

Bethany Allen, an internationally recognized investigator into China's covert power, shows Western institutions have bowed to and even enabled Beijing's coercion. As we come reeling out of a global pandemic and eyes are on a new war in Europe, this revealing analysis sounds the alarm about the most significant shift in the new world order, and what we must do to prevent the loss of freedoms we take for granted.

Economic Time Series: Modeling and Seasonality is a focused resource on analysis of economic time series as pertains to modeling and seasonality, presenting cutting-edge research that would otherwise be scattered throughout diverse peer-reviewed journals. This compilation of 21 chapters showcases the cross-fertilization between the fields of time series modeling and seasonal adjustment, as is reflected both in the contents of the chapters and in their authorship, with contributors coming from academia and government statistical agencies. For easier perusal and absorption, the contents have been grouped into seven topical sections: Section I deals with periodic modeling of time series, introducing, applying, and comparing various seasonally periodic models Section II examines the estimation of time series components when models for series are misspecified in some sense, and the broader implications this has for seasonal adjustment and business cycle estimation Section III examines the quantification of error in X-11 seasonal adjustments, with comparisons to error in model-based seasonal adjustments Section IV discusses some practical problems that arise in seasonal adjustment: developing asymmetric trend-cycle filters, dealing with both temporal and contemporaneous benchmark constraints, detecting trading-day effects in monthly and quarterly time series, and using diagnostics in conjunction with model-based seasonal adjustment Section V explores outlier detection and the modeling of time series containing extreme values, developing new procedures and extending previous work Section VI examines some alternative models and inference procedures for analysis of seasonal economic time series Section VII deals with aspects of modeling, estimation, and forecasting for nonseasonal economic time series By presenting new methodological developments as well as pertinent empirical analyses and reviews of established methods, the book provides much that is stimulating and practically useful for the serious researcher and analyst of economic time series.

In the decades after the Civil War, the world experienced monumental changes in industry, trade, and governance. As Americans faced this uncertain future, public debate sprang up over the accuracy and value of predictions, asking whether it was possible to look into the future with any degree of certainty. In Looking Forward, Jamie L. Pietruska uncovers a culture of prediction in the modern era, where forecasts became commonplace as crop forecasters, "weather prophets," business forecasters, utopian novelists, and fortune-tellers produced and sold their visions of the future. Private and government forecasters competed for authority as well as for an audience and a single prediction could make or break a forecaster's reputation. Pietruska argues that this late nineteenth-century quest for future certainty had an especially ironic consequence: it led Americans to accept uncertainty as an inescapable part of both forecasting and twentieth-century economic and cultural life. Drawing together histories of science, technology, capitalism, environment, and culture, Looking Forward explores how forecasts functioned as new forms of knowledge and risk management tools that sometimes mitigated, but at other times exacerbated, the very uncertainties they were designed to conquer. Ultimately Pietruska shows how Americans came to understand the future itself as predictable, yet still uncertain.

The definitive guide to technical analysis . . . written from a trader's perspective

With the keen insight and perspective that have made him a market legend, Jack D. Schwager explores, explains, and examines the application of technical analysis in futures trading. In the most in-depth, comprehensive book available, the bestselling investment writer demonstrates why he is one of today's foremost authorities. Here is the one volume no trader should be without.

"Jack Schwager has accomplished the rarest of feats in this book. He has presented material in a way that both the professional and layman can profit from. It is a must read for traders on all levels." — Stanley Druckenmillern Managing Director, Soros Fund Management

"Jack Schwager's Technical Analysis is exactly what one should expect from this expert on futures. The book is comprehensive, thoroughly insightful, and highly educational. I recommend it to the beginner as well as the expert." — Leo Melamed Chairman, Sakura Dellsher, Inc.

"Jack Schwager possesses a remarkable ability to extract the important elements of complex, market-timing approaches, and distill that into something intelligible and useful. Not only is he able to present these ideas cleverly in an easily understood format, but he also demonstrates their application to the markets with clarity and precision." — Thomas R. DeMark Author, The New Science of Technical Analysis

"Jack Schwager's book, A Complete Guide to the Futures Markets, was one of the best books I have read on futures trading. We give a copy of it to all our new analysts. Jack's latest work, Technical Analysis, looks like a gold mine of information, adding significantly to the existing investment literature." — Monroe Trout President, Trout Trading Management Co.

Jack Schwager is one of the most important and visible figures in the futures industry today. His Market Wizards and The New Market Wizards are two of the bestselling finance titles of all time. Now, in the latest volume in the Schwager on Futures series, Technical Analysis, Schwager has created the most comprehensive guide ever for using technical analysis for futures trading. What makes Technical Analysis unique, besides its in-depth coverage, is that it is written from a trader's perspective. Schwager doesn't merely cover the subject, he explores what works and doesn't work in the real world of trading.

Contains a comprehensive guide to chart analysis written with a particular focus on trading applications

• Includes a separate 200+ page section illustrating the use of chart analysis in the real world
• Details and illustrates several original trading systems
• Includes a self-contained primer on cyclical analysis
• Describes popular oscillators, the pitfalls in their common use, and guidelines to their successful application in trading
• Explains the concept and use of "continuous futures" and compares 10-year continuous futures charts with conventional nearest futures charts for all major U.S. futures markets
• Contains a section on trading strategy and philosophy, including over 100 trading tips

Hundreds of charts, tables, and examples illustrate key points throughout, while the text is written in the informative, insightful, and nontechnical style that has made Jack Schwager one of the most highly regarded and bestselling investment authors ever. This invaluable book by one of the world's foremost authorities is destined to become the premier industry guide on technical analysis for many years to come.

In Schwager on Futures: Technical Analysis, legendary market analyst Jack D. Schwager examines technical analysis in-depth, exploring what works and doesn't work in the real world of trading. Now, in the Study Guide to Accompany Technical Analysis, Thomas Bierovic, a highly renowned instructor, joined by Steven Turner and Jack Schwager, offers a class in the technical material presented in Technical Analysis.

The Study Guide is clearly organized parallel with Technical Analysis. Chapter by chapter, it provides questions and problems that help you practice applying the principles in the book, plus brief chapter summaries to reinforce major points. Answers are in the back, so you can check your work.

What better way to test your knowledge than by running through a series of questions and problems? Trading system development is enhanced once you are certain you understand the underlying indicators. Working through the Study Guide lets you test your aptitude before using the indicators to trade real-time. With the Study Guide, Technical Analysis will be an even more valuable trading companion and reference.

Supply chain professionals: master pioneering techniques for integrating demand and supply, and create demand forecasts that are far more accurate and useful! In Demand and Supply Integration, Dr. Mark Moon presents the specific design characteristics of a world-class demand forecasting management process, showing how to effectively integrate demand forecasting within a comprehensive Demand and Supply Integration (DSI) process. Writing for supply chain professionals in any business, government agency, or military procurement organization, Moon explains what DSI is, how it differs from approaches such as S&OP, and how to recognize the symptoms of failures to sufficiently integrate demand and supply. He outlines the key characteristics of successful DSI implementations, shows how to approach Demand Forecasting as a management process, and guides you through understanding, selecting, and applying the best available qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques. You'll learn how to thoroughly reflect market intelligence in your forecasts; measure your forecasting performance; implement state-of-the-art demand forecasting systems; manage Demand Reviews, and much more.