Economic Time Series: Modeling and Seasonality is a focused resource on analysis of economic time series as pertains to modeling and seasonality, presenting cutting-edge research that would otherwise be scattered throughout diverse peer-reviewed journals. This compilation of 21 chapters showcases the cross-fertilization between the fields of time series modeling and seasonal adjustment, as is reflected both in the contents of the chapters and in their authorship, with contributors coming from academia and government statistical agencies. For easier perusal and absorption, the contents have been grouped into seven topical sections: Section I deals with periodic modeling of time series, introducing, applying, and comparing various seasonally periodic models Section II examines the estimation of time series components when models for series are misspecified in some sense, and the broader implications this has for seasonal adjustment and business cycle estimation Section III examines the quantification of error in X-11 seasonal adjustments, with comparisons to error in model-based seasonal adjustments Section IV discusses some practical problems that arise in seasonal adjustment: developing asymmetric trend-cycle filters, dealing with both temporal and contemporaneous benchmark constraints, detecting trading-day effects in monthly and quarterly time series, and using diagnostics in conjunction with model-based seasonal adjustment Section V explores outlier detection and the modeling of time series containing extreme values, developing new procedures and extending previous work Section VI examines some alternative models and inference procedures for analysis of seasonal economic time series Section VII deals with aspects of modeling, estimation, and forecasting for nonseasonal economic time series By presenting new methodological developments as well as pertinent empirical analyses and reviews of established methods, the book provides much that is stimulating and practically useful for the serious researcher and analyst of economic time series.

Databook of Surface Modification Additives, Second Edition contains data on ten groups of additives, including anti-scratch and mar-preventing additives, additives for surface tension reduction and wetting, hydrophobization additives, gloss enhancement and surface matting additives, additives for the formation of tack-free surface and tackifiers, and stain inhibiting additives. The information on each is divided into five sections, including General Information, Physical-Chemical Properties, Health and Safety, Ecological Properties, and Use and Performance. This data is provided for approximately 360 of the most important surface modification additives produced and used today. This databook will be an extremely useful resource for engineers, researchers and technicians interested in using additives to modify and improve the surface properties of materials.

Law and economics research has had an enormous impact on the laws of contracts, torts, property, crimes, corporations, and antitrust, as well as public regulation and fundamental rights. The Law and Economics of Patent Damages, Antitrust, and Legal Process examines several areas of important research by a variety of international scholars. It contains technical papers on the appropriate way to estimate damages in patent disputes, as well as methods for evaluating relevant markets and vertically integrated firms when determining the competitive effects of mergers and other actions. There are also papers on the implication of different legal processes, regulations, and liability rules on consumer welfare, which range from the impact of delays in legal decisions in labour cases in France to issues of criminal liability related to the use of artificial intelligence. This volume of Research in Law and Economics is a must-read for researchers and professionals of patent damages, antitrust, labour, and legal process.

Japan will recover and its economic achievements will once again earn the world's admiration, with sustained annual growth of three percent, perhaps more, well within reach. This is the confident forecast that begins Japanese Phoenix: The Long Road to Economic Revival by the author of Japan: The System That Soured, which several years ago accurately predicted Japan's current travails at a time when others were prematurely pronouncing full recovery. Katz warns however that there is bad news to go with the good. So deep-seated are Japan's dysfunctions that, even if it did everything right today, it would take at least five years for truly vibrant growth to take hold. But Japan will not do everything right. Opposition to reform is deep-seated and a myriad of vested interests and millions of jobs are at stake. Still he notes, there is little doubt that reform will succeed. Japanese Phoenix tells the story of the struggle between the forces of reform and the forces of resistance. It dissects Prime Minister Koizumi's role in the process, and explains why Japan is in so much trouble and what needs to be done. It explore the debates among economists and gives a careful progress report on all the moves made so far in the name of reform - from greater direct foreign investment, to the financial "Big Bang", to ending one-party rule by the Liberal Democratic Party. Katz concludes that this is just the second round of a 15-round fight. Japan is a great nation currently trapped in obsolete institutions. As it has before, Japan will find a way to surmount its problems and regain its forward progress.

Can You Predict the Future by Looking at the Past? Since accurate forecasting requires more than just inserting historical data into a model, Forecasting: Methods and Applications, 3/e, adopts a managerial, business orientation. Integrated throughout this text is the innovative idea that explaining the past is not adequate for predicting the future. Inside, you will find the latest techniques used by managers in business today, discover the importance of forecasting and learn how it's accomplished. And you'll develop the necessary skills to meet the increased demand for thoughtful and realistic forecasts. New features in the third edition include:
* An emphasis placed on the practical uses of forecasting.
* All data sets used in this book are available on the Internet.
* Comprehensive coverage provided on both quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques.
* Includes many new developments in forecasting methodology and practice.

The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the futurecomes fromthe core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and "ex post" studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2Acovers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2Binvestigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literaturescattered acrossappliedand theoretical statistics journals as well aseconometrics and empirical economics journals. "The Handbook of Economic Forecasting" Volumes 2A and 2Bprovide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues.
Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applicationsPresents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applicationsMakes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics"

This volume, edited by Jeffrey Racine, Liangjun Su, and Aman Ullah, contains the latest research on nonparametric and semiparametric econometrics and statistics. These data-driven models seek to replace the "classical " parametric models of the past, which were rigid and often linear. Chapters by leading international econometricians and statisticians highlight the interface between econometrics and statistical methods for nonparametric and semiparametric procedures. They provide a balanced view of new developments in the analysis and modeling of applied sciences with cross-section, time series, panel, and spatial data sets. The major topics of the volume include: the methodology of semiparametric models and special regressor methods; inverse, ill-posed, and well-posed problems; different methodologies related to additive models; sieve regression estimators, nonparametric and semiparametric regression models, and the true error of competing approximate models; support vector machines and their modeling of default probability; series estimation of stochastic processes and some of their applications in Econometrics; identification, estimation, and specification problems in a class of semilinear time series models; nonparametric and semiparametric techniques applied to nonstationary or near nonstationary variables; the estimation of a set of regression equations; and a new approach to the analysis of nonparametric models with exogenous treatment assignment.

'A fascinating book . . . Bhaskar is a reassuringly positive and often witty guide' Observer 'A fascinating, must-read book covering a vast array of topics from the arts to the sciences, technology to policy. This is a brilliant and thought-provoking response to one of the most critical questions of our age: how we will come up with the next generation of innovation and truly fresh ideas?' Mustafa Suleyman, cofounder of DeepMind and Google VP 'Have "big ideas" and big social and economic changes disappeared from the scene? Michael Bhaskar's Human Frontiers is the best look at these all-important questions.' Tyler Cowen, author of The Great Stagnation and The Complacent Class 'Michael Bhaskar explores the disturbing possibility that a complacent, cautious civilization has lost ambition and is slowly sinking into technological stagnation rather than accelerating into a magical future. He is calling for bold, adventurous innovators to go big again. A fascinating book' Matt Ridley, author of How Innovation Works Where next for humanity? Is our future one of endless improvement in all areas of life, from technology and travel to medicine, movies and music? Or are our best years behind us? It's easy to assume that the story of modern society is one of consistent, radical progress, but this is no longer true: more academics are researching than ever before but their work leads to fewer breakthroughs; innovation is incremental, limited to the digital sphere; the much-vaunted cure for cancer remains elusive; space travel has stalled since the heady era of the moonshot; politics is stuck in a rut, and the creative industries seem trapped in an ongoing cycle of rehashing genres and classics. The most ambitious ideas now struggle. Our great-great-great grandparents saw a series of transformative ideas revolutionise almost everything in just a few decades. Today, in contrast, short termism, risk aversion, and fractious decision making leaves the landscape timid and unimaginative. In Human Frontiers, Michael Bhaskar draws a vividly entertaining and expansive portrait of humanity's relationship with big ideas. He argues that stasis at the frontier is the result of having already pushed so far, taken easy wins and started to hit limits. But new thinking is still possible. By adopting bold global approaches, deploying cutting edge technology like AI and embracing a culture of change, we can push through and expand afresh. Perfect for anyone who has wondered why we haven't gone further, this book shows in fascinating detail how the 21st century could stall - or be the most revolutionary time in human history.

This book promotes good risk governance and risk management practices to corporate managers, executives, and directors wherever they operate around the world. The major corporate scandals have their roots in governance failure pointing to the link between risk governance and good performance outcomes. This topic is timely and of interest both to the academic community as well as to practicing managers, executives, and directors.
The volume focuses on contemporary risk leadership issues based on recent research insights but avoids excessive technical language and mathematical formulas. The book is framed around the challenges imposed on executives and directors in dealing with an increasingly complex and unpredictable world. This requires a new risk leadership focus that not only avoids the downside risks but also considers ways to exploit the upside potential offered by a dynamic environment. The underlying logic is built on the principles of financial economics where benefits derive from reducing bankruptcy costs and increasing future cash inflows. This provides a stringent framework for analyzing the effect of different risk management actions and behaviors in effective risk-taking organizations. Hence, the book addresses the potential for upside gains as much as the threats of downside losses that represent the conventional risk perspectives. It states the simple fact that you must be willing to take risk to increase strategic responsiveness and corporate manoeuverability. The text builds the arguments in logical steps explicating relevant techniques and practices along the way that invite to immediate applications and practical thinking

Gain the knowledge and skills that can help you exploit instability. Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles No book can help you construct foolproof forecasting systems that will ensure youa ll accurately predict economic turning points every time. But with Niemira and Kleina s Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles on hand, youa ll be able to significantly strengthen your ability to measure, monitor, and forecast important fluctuations. Part history, it provides you with essential background material on the characteristics and causes of economic volatility. It offers accessible coverage of the classical business cycle, the five basic types of economic cycles as determined by leading economists, and evolving ideas on the forces driving instability----ranging from simple unicausal theories, more complex Keynesian theory, to new classical macroeconomics. In addition, its concise review of Americaa s economic past highlights the lessons that can be learned from the various cycles experienced since shortly before World War II. Part handbook, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles presents the full spectrum of statistical techniques used to measure cycles, trends, seasonal patterns, and other vital changes, offering you step--by--step guidance on applying a specific method and detailing its uses and limitations. It goes on to show how you can adapt particular techniques to assess, track, and predict: aeo Industry cycles----including an objective, tailor--made forecasting tool aeo Regional business cycles----including a survey of regional indicators aeo International business cycles----with an international business cycle chronology aeo Inflation cycles----plus "12 little--known facts" about this complex cycle aeo Financial cycles----covering credit, monetary, and interest rate cycles aeo Stock market cycles----with advice on achieving more disciplined trading Based on outstanding scholarship and years of practical experience, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles will serve as an invaluable tool for practitioners like you whose decision--making----and profit margin----depend on accurately assessing todaya s often uncertain economic climate. "Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles provides a lively survey of the many ways that cyclical economic activity has been dissected and analyzed. With this book, an astute reader may even be able to anticipate the next cyclical turn." ----Samuel D. Kahan Chief Economist Fuji Securities, Inc. "The definitive book on the most important and enduring feature of an often mist--bound economic landscape: the business cycle." ----Alfred L. Malabre, Jr. Economics Editor The Wall Street Journal "Niemira and Klein cover both the theory of economic cycles and methods for forecasting them. They provide one of the most comprehensive and current reviews of academic studies of economic cycles to be found anywhere." ----Anthony F. Herbst Professor of Finance The University of Texas at El Paso "This book succeeds as a comprehensive, balanced, and accessible treatment of fluctuations in economic and financial activity. It should prove useful to all those in industry and finance who wish to understand and analyze the trends and changes in the modern dynamic economy." ----Victor Zarnowitz Professor Emeritus of Economics and Finance University of Chicago

Sustainability Accounting and Integrated Reporting deals with organizations' assessment, articulation and disclosure of their social and environmental impact on various groups in society. There is increasingly an understanding that financial information does not sufficiently discharge organizational accountability to members of society who are demanding an account of the social and environmental impacts of companies' and other organizations' activities. As a result, organizations report ever more social and environmental information, and there are simultaneous movements towards providing the information in an integrated fashion, showing how social and environmental activities influence each other, members of society and the financial aims of the organization. The book Sustainability Accounting and Integrated Reporting provides a broad and comprehensive review of the field, focusing on the interconnection between different elements of these topics, often dealt with in isolation. The book examines the accounting involved in the collection and analysis of data, control processes over the data, how information is reported to external parties, and the assurance of the information being reported. The book thereby provides an overview useful to practitioners (including sustainability managers, consultants, members of the accounting profession, and other assurance providers), academics, and students.

Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics.

"It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, "Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things," provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape--but Fair doesn't stop there.
Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well--including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read "Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things" and find out
As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.

The excessive pursuit of economic interests has resulted in severe environmental and social problems, such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and inequality and disparity. There is an urgent need for broader measures of progress to complement Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This book provides a wide range of economic evaluations of environmental and societal issues including climate change, emission problem from garbage landfills, and income inequality. The book explains that sustainability indicators and well-being measures can be effective guide for policy making and how they can strike a balance between economic, environmental, and societal interests. This book summarizes current practices and theories of economic evaluation for sustainability and provides understanding of emerging trends in this area. It also stresses the importance of environmental policies and business actions in achieving sustainable growth and puts forth why countries should take natural capital and other conventional inputs into consideration.

The role of information is central to the academic debate on finance. This book provides a detailed, current survey of theoretical research into the effect on stock prices of the distribution of information, comparing and contrasting major models. It examines theoretical models that explain bubbles, technical analysis, and herding behavior. It also provides rational explanations for stock market crashes. Analyzing the implications of asymmetries in information is crucial in this area. This book provides a useful survey for graduate students.

With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. A companion website with downloadable datasets, exercises and lecture slides rounds out the full learning package.

A "quick look up guide," Electricity Cost Modeling Calculations places the relevant formulae and calculations at the reader's finger tips. In this book, theories are explained in a nutshell and then the calculation is presented and solved in an illustrated, step-by-step fashion. A valuable guide for new engineers, economists (or forecasters), regulators, and policy makers who want to further develop their knowledge of best practice calculations techniques or experienced practitioners (and even managers) who desire to acquire more useful tips, this book offers expert advice for using such cost models to determine optimally-sized distribution systems and optimally-structured power supplying entities. In other words, this book provides an Everything-that-you-want-to-know-about-cost-modelling-for-electric-utilities (but were afraid to ask) approach to modelling the cost of supplying electricity. In addition, the author covers the concept of multiproduct and multistage cost functions, which are appropriate in modelling the cost of supplying electricity. The author has done all the heavy number-crunching, and provides the reader with real-world, practical examples of how to properly quantify the costs associated with providing electric service, thus increasing the accuracy of the results and support for the policy initiatives required to ensure the competitiveness of the power suppliers in this new world in which we are living. The principles contained herein could be employed to assist in the determination of the cost-minimizing amount of output (i.e., electricity), which could then be used to determine whether a merger between two entities makes sense (i.e., would increase profitability). Other examples abound: public regulatory commissions also need help in determining whether mergers (or divestitures) are welfare-enhancing or not; ratemaking policies depend on costs and properly determining the costs of supplying electric (or gas, water, and local telephone) service. Policy makers, too, can benefit in terms of optimal market structure; after all, the premise of deregulation of the electric industry was predicated on the idea that generation could be deregulated. Unfortunately, the economies of vertical integration between the generation.

Succinct and understandable, this book is a step-by-step guide to the mathematics and construction of electrical load forecasting models. Written by one of the world's foremost experts on the subject, Electrical Load Forecasting provides a brief discussion of algorithms, their advantages and disadvantages and when they are best utilized. The book begins with a good description of the basic theory and models needed to truly understand how the models are prepared so that they are not just blindly plugging and chugging numbers. This is followed by a clear and rigorous exposition of the statistical techniques and algorithms such as regression, neural networks, fuzzy logic, and expert systems. The book is also supported by an online computer program that allows readers to construct, validate, and run short and long term models.

Part of a series which focuses on advances in futures and options research, this volume discusses a variety of topics in the field.

Bringing together a collection of previously published work, this book provides a discussion of major considerations relating to the construction of econometric models that work well to explain economic phenomena, predict future outcomes and be useful for policy-making. Analytical relations between dynamic econometric structural models and empirical time series MVARMA, VAR, transfer function, and univariate ARIMA models are established with important application for model-checking and model construction. The theory and applications of these procedures to a variety of econometric modeling and forecasting problems as well as Bayesian and non-Bayesian testing, shrinkage estimation and forecasting procedures are also presented and applied. Finally, attention is focused on the effects of disaggregation on forecasting precision and the Marshallian Macroeconomic Model that features demand, supply and entry equations for major sectors of economies is analysed and described. This volume will prove invaluable to professionals, academics and students alike.

This seventh volume in the series covers a variety of topics in financial planning and forecasting.

The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the futurecomes fromthe core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and "ex post" studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2Acovers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2Binvestigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literaturescattered acrossappliedand theoretical statistics journals as well aseconometrics and empirical economics journals. "The Handbook of Economic Forecasting" Volumes 2A and 2Bprovide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues.
Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applicationsPresents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applicationsMakes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics"

A practical guide to understanding economic forecasts In Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts, UBS Chief U.S. Economist Maury Harris helps readers improve their own forecasting abilities by examining the elements and processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts. The book: *Provides insights from Maury Harris, named among Bloomberg's 50 Most Influential People in Global Finance. *Demonstrates "best practices" in the assembly and evaluation of forecasts. Harris walks readers through the real-life steps he and other successful forecasters take in preparing their projections. These valuable procedures can help forecast users evaluate forecasts and forecasters as inputs for making their own specific business and investment decisions. *Emphasizes the critical role of judgment in improving projections derived from purely statistical methodologies. Harris explores the prerequisites for sound forecasting judgment a good sense of history and an understanding of contemporary theoretical frameworks in readable and illuminating detail. *Addresses everyday forecasting issues, including the credibility of government statistics and analyses, fickle consumers, and volatile business spirits. Harris also offers procedural guidelines for special circumstances, such as natural disasters, terrorist threats, gyrating oil and stock prices, and international economic crises. *Evaluates major contemporary forecasting issues including the now commonplace hypothesis of sustained economic sluggishness, possible inflation outcomes in an environment of falling unemployment, and projecting interest rates when central banks implement unprecedented low interest rate and quantitative easing (QE) policies. *Brings to life Harris's own experiences and those of other leading economists in his almost four-decade career as a professional economist and forecaster. Dr. Harris presents his personal recipes for long-term credibility and commercial success to anyone offering advice about the future.

The European public debt problem was in the making long before the 2007-2009 recession, as budget deficits had become endemic. A similar crisis is now developing in America, where the same fundamental causes have been at work. The Public Debt Problem analyzes the situation of public debts in America and reviews official forecasts for the federal government. The author carefully explains the main concepts (budget deficit, public debt, etc.) and analytical tools (discounting, government accounting, Treasury securities, bonds, yields, etc.) necessary to understand the issues.

The degree to which markets incorporate information is one of the most important questions facing economists today. This book provides a fascinating study of the existence and extent of information efficiency in financial markets, with a special focus on betting markets. Betting markets are selected for study because they incorporate features highly appropriate to a study of information efficiency, in particular the fact that each bet has a well-defined end point at which its value becomes certain. Using international examples, this book reviews and analyses the issue of information efficiency in both financial and betting markets. Part I is an extensive survey of the existing literature, while Part II presents a range of readings by leading academics. Insights gained from the book will interest students of financial economics, financial market analysts, mathematicians and statisticians, and all those with a special interest in finance or gambling.