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Books > Business & Economics > Economics > Economic forecasting
Handbook of the Economics of Marketing, Volume One: Marketing and
Economics mixes empirical work in industrial organization with
quantitative marketing tools, presenting tactics that help
researchers tackle problems with a balance of intuition and
skepticism. It offers critical perspectives on theoretical work
within economics, delivering a comprehensive, critical, up-to-date,
and accessible review of the field that has always been missing.
This literature summary of research at the intersection of
economics and marketing is written by, and for, economists, and the
book's authors share a belief in analytical and integrated
approaches to marketing, emphasizing data-driven, result-oriented,
pragmatic strategies.
The US Gulf of Mexico is one of the largest and most prolific
offshore hydrocarbon basins in the world with thousands of
structures installed in the region and tens of thousands of wells
drilled. Over the past decade, a significant number of structures
in shallow water have been decommissioned, as operators can no
longer "kick the decommissioning can" down the road. This has
opened up new markets and additional regulatory oversight with
far-reaching implications. This book describes future
decommissioning trends and issues and provides guidance for
operator budgeting, regulatory oversight, and service sector
companies interested in participating in the field. Decommissioning
Forecasting and Operating Cost Estimation is the first of its kind
textbook to develop models to forecast platform decommissioning in
the Gulf of Mexico and to better understand the dynamics of
offshore production cost. The book bridges the gap between modeling
and technical knowledge to provide insight into the sector. Topics
are presented in five parts covering fundamentals, structure
inventories and well trends, decommissioning modeling, critical
infrastructure issues, and operating cost estimation. Factor models
and activity-based cost models in operating cost estimation
conclude the discussion. Decommissioning Forecasting and Operating
Cost Estimation helps oil and gas professionals navigate through
this complex and challenging field providing an invaluable resource
for academics, researchers, and professionals. The book will also
serve government regulators, energy and environmental engineers,
offshore managers, financial analyst, and others interested in this
fascinating and dynamic industry.
Belief and Rule Compliance: An Experimental Comparison of Muslim
and Non-Muslim Economic Behavior uses modern behavioral science and
game theory to examine the behavior and compliance of Muslim
populations to Islamic Finance laws and norms. The work identifies
behaviors characterized by unexpected complexity and profound
divergence, including expectations for sharing, cooperation and
entrepreneurship gleaned from studies. Adopting a unique set of
recent empirical observations, the work provides a reliable
behavioral foundation for practitioners seeking to evaluate, create
and market Islamic financial products.
Changing the Indian Economy: Renewal, Reform and Revival explores
the fact that post-Modi India is witnessing unprecedented
socioeconomic change, truly labeled as Modi's Mantra and his
attempts to morph the Indian economic landscape. India is using an
intelligent economic process for its renewal and growth, however,
in a recent study by Nomura, 2016, The Japanese Financial Services
firm, it is reported that there is downside risk to India's
baseline forecast of 7.8 per cent GDP growth in 2016. Although the
report suggests that there was a mid-cycle consolidation in
mid-2014, the recovery seems to be losing momentum. This book
offers a novel, but inclusive outlook to the entire post-Modi
economic overhaul.
Research on forecasting methods has made important progress over
recent years and these developments are brought together in the
Handbook of Economic Forecasting. The handbook covers developments
in how forecasts are constructed based on multivariate time-series
models, dynamic factor models, nonlinear models and combination
methods. The handbook also includes chapters on forecast
evaluation, including evaluation of point forecasts and probability
forecasts and contains chapters on survey forecasts and volatility
forecasts. Areas of applications of forecasts covered in the
handbook include economics, finance and marketing.
*Addresses economic forecasting methodology, forecasting models,
forecasting with different data structures, and the applications of
forecasting methods
*Insights within this volume can be applied to economics, finance
and marketing disciplines
Can anything prevent China surpassing the United States and
becoming the world's superpower? While dozens of recent books and
articles have predicted the near-certainty of China's rise to
global supremacy, this book boldly counters such widely-held
assumptions. Timothy Beardson brings to light the daunting array of
challenges that today confront China, as well as the inadequacy of
the policy responses. Threats to China come on many fronts,
Beardson shows, and by their number and sheer weight these problems
will thwart any ambition to become the world's "Number One power."
Drawing on extensive research and experience living and working in
Asia over the last 35 years, the author spells out China's
situation: an inexorable demographic future of a shrinking labor
force, relentless aging, extreme gender disparity, and even a
falling population. Also, the nation faces social instability, a
devastated environment, a predominantly low-tech economy with
inadequate innovation, the absence of an effective welfare safety
net, an ossified governance structure, and radical Islam lurking at
the borders. Beardson's nuanced, first-hand look at China
acknowledges its historic achievements while tempering predictions
of its imminent hegemony with a no-nonsense dose of reality.
This publication provides updated statistics on a comprehensive set
of economic, financial, social, and environmental measures as well
as select indicators for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
The report covers the 49 regional members of ADB. It discusses
trends in development progress and the challenges to achieving
inclusive and sustainable economic growth across Asia and the
Pacific. This 53rd edition looks at how most economies in the
region have bounced back to varying degrees from the COVID-19
pandemic. A gradual recovery of cyclical industries, the release of
pent-up consumer demand, and increased confidence levels have
contributed to developing Asia's economy. To put into practice the
"leave no one behind" principle of the Sustainable Development
Goals, detailed and informative data is crucial. The 2022 report
features a special supplement, Mapping the Public Voice for
Development-Natural Language Processing of Social Media Text Data,
which explores how natural language processing techniques can be
applied to social media text data to map public sentiment and
inform development research and policy making.
This book examines the main causes of financial instability and
highlights that, with the exception of wars and pandemics, the
financial system is the source of the crisis, not just a means of
spreading it, as most mainstream experts believe. Based on the
following findings, the innovative sections of this book provide
academics and policymakers with important and practical knowledge:
because negative shifts in the financial system precede recessions,
financial indicators can predict the onset of a crisis much earlier
than real variables; the proposed recession forecasting model can
predict the emergence of the crisis a month in advance. When the
economy's sensitivity to the financial system is reduced, there
will be only modest negative economic growth and no true
recessions.
In recent years politics has seen an increasing role in economic
policymaking for a technocracy of experts. How do politicians feel
about this and how do they balance their political and ethical aims
with economic expertise? Anna Killick offers an in-depth study of
how politicians engage with economists and economic opinion. Based
on interviews with politicians from the main parties in France,
Germany, Denmark, the UK and USA, the book highlights the role
economic opinion plays in politics and the tension that can arise
between democracy and technocracy. Deferring to the experts is
shown to be neither viable nor desirable, and that we should trust
politicians to take the lead role in solving economic problems.
Whether it's an unforeseen financial crash, a shock election result
or a washout summer that threatens to ruin a holiday in the sun,
forecasts are part and parcel of our everyday lives. We rely
wholeheartedly on them, and become outraged when things don't go
exactly to plan. But should we really put so much trust in
predictions? Perhaps gut instincts can trump years of methodically
compiled expert knowledge? And when exactly is a forecast not a
forecast? Forewarned will answer all of these intriguing questions,
and many more. Packed with fun anecdotes and startling facts,
Forewarned is a myth-busting guide to prediction, based on the very
latest scientific research. It lays out the many ways forecasting
can help us make better decisions in an unpredictable modern world,
and reveals when forecasts can be a reliable guide to the
uncertainties of the future - and when they are best ignored.
'A well-researched and thought-provoking book' Telegraph '2020:
World of War is an informed piece of strategic speculation and
analysis. Its official distribution should start at Number 10
Downing Street, with the book being quickly shared within the UK's
national security apparatus, and perhaps usefully in Washington and
European capitals, too.' Mungo Melvin, The RUSI Journal 'A timely
and cogent reminder that history never ends and is about to be
made' - Tim Marshall, author of Prisoners of Geography 'This
informed and expert book examines credible scenarios of what might
happen, could happen and hopefully won't happen' - Lord George
Robertson, former NATO Secretary General '2020: World of War should
be read by our political leaders, policy makers and horizon
scanners alike' - General Sir Richard Shirreff 'This expert
consideration of potential conflicts will be invaluable to us all -
not just the policy makers and politicians who will have to deal
with those issues' - Jonathan Powell, former Chief of Staff, 10
Downing Street 'Knowing the unknown is the first step in making
sure what we fear most doesn't happen' - Jonathan Powell, former
Chief of Staff, 10 Downing Street With the world already struggling
to contain conflicts on several continents, with security and
defence expenditure under huge pressure, it's time to think the
unthinkable and explore what might happen. As former soldiers now
working in defence strategy and conflict resolution, Paul Cornish
and Kingsley Donaldson are perfectly qualified to guide us through
a credible and utterly convincing 20/20 vision of the year 2020,
from cyber security to weapons technology, from geopolitics to
undercover operations. This book is of global importance, offering
both analysis and creative solutions - essential reading both for
decision-makers and everyone who simply wants to understand our
future.
This lively and provocative look at the tension between economics
and politics examines why so many mistakes in economic
policy-making are made for political reasons and ignore the
economic truths. Using short-term economic gains to ensure
electoral success, argues Lorenzo Forni, inevitably spells
macroeconomic disaster. Using the state budget, trade policy and
monetary policy to prop up labour markets and the wider economy in
order to boost voter approval ratings, while ignoring budget
constraints can only result in longer recessions and economic
downturns. Which then can incur the painful austerity measures
needed to bring the economy back into balance. Forni looks at many
unsustainable economic policies that have been implemented in parts
of the world when the economic realities - there is no magic money
tree! - would recommend a different and more prudent economic
course.
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