Financial crises have dogged the international monetary system over recent years. They have impoverished millions of people around the world, especially within developing countries. And they have called into question the very process of globalisation. Yet there remains no intellectual consensus on how best to avert such crises - much less resolve them. Policymakers stand at a crossroads. This volume summarises and evaluates these issues, drawing on contributions by prominent international experts in the field. It considers whether the IMF may have actually fanned the flames of future crises through its lending decisions. It assesses the contribution made by private creditors in resolving past crises - and asks what mechanisms might best be used to involve private creditors in the future. It also assesses the merits of two recent competing blueprints for architectural reform - the so-called contractual and statutory approaches to crisis resolution. These issues will shape the debate on the future of the international monetary system over the next decade and, probably, beyond. For although crises may always be with us, better public policy can surely help mitigate their future cost and incidence. With an impressive array of internationally based contributors, this book will deserve a place on the bookshelves of economists and policy-makers in both the official and private sectors.

The 20th century was the century of explosive population growth, resulting in unprecedented impacts; in contrast, the 21st century is likely to see the end of world population growth and become the century of population aging. We are currently at the crossroads of these demographic regimes. This book presents fresh evidence about our demographic future and provides a new framework for understanding the underlying unity in this diversity. It is an invaluable resource for those concerned with the implications of population change in the 21st century. The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century is the first volume in a new series on Population and Sustainable Development. The series provides fresh ways of thinking about population trends and impacts.

"A technical tour de force, destined to become the thinking bull's bible."-Kathryn Welling, Barron's
Renowned for her analytical brilliance and extraordinary forecasting ability, LOUISE YAMADA examines the forces that will shape the markets for the next ten years
"Few on Wall Street can match Louise Yamada for analytical ability as well as insight on the big issues affecting investors. We are fortunate she is willing to share the results of her thoughts and research with us."-Mark Haines, CNBC
"Louise Yamada has a special talent for anticipating future financial trends. Market Magic is a must read for investors as we prepare for the exciting decade ahead."-David Cork, F.C.S.I. author of The Pig and the Python: How to Prosper from the Aging Baby Boom
"Market Magic demystifies the voodoo of technical analysis and relates technical indicators to the real world of stocks and bonds and demographic and economic trends worldwide."-Oscar S. Schafer, General Partner
Cumberland Associates; Member, Barron's Roundtable
For updates on new and bestselling Wiley Finance titles: wiley.com/wbns

Modern evolutionary economics is now nearly two decades old and in this excellent book, a distinguished group of evolutionary economists identify the most important developments and discuss the direction of future research. By moving away from traditional concerns with the operation of selection mechanisms towards a preoccupation with the manner in which the novelty and variety provide fuel for such mechanisms, the authors identify a key development in the field. Evolutionary economists have been drawn into the modern complexity science literature which attempts to provide an understanding of how and why 'complex adaptive systems' engage in processes of self-organization. The goal is to provide an integrated analysis of both selection and self-organization that is uniquely economic in orientation. After a brief overview of the many key achievements and continuing challenges, the first part of the book deals with theoretical perspectives, discussing institutional change, social constructions, complexity, selection and self-selection and the usefulness of theory. Part two deals with empirical perspectives and includes discussion of replicator dynamics, the measurement of heterogeneity and complexity, and modelling organizations as complex adaptive systems. This unique book will appeal to evolutionary and industrial economists and policymakers involved with issues of innovation and management scientists.

The forecasting of financial markets has engaged the attention of market professionals and academic economists and statisticians for many years, and has also attracted the interest of numerous 'amateur' investors. This book brings together key papers in this wide field. After considering some of the earliest attempts at forecasting, it provides an insight into the theoretical underpinnings of the subject, investigates the random walk model, and examines various financial markets, volatility and density forecasting, the forecasting of extreme events, trading rules, technical analysis and high frequency data.

This title was first published in 2000: Sustainable development offers visions of the future, but implementation of new sustainable policies seems slow. This text presents a forecasting method directed to overcome some barriers to the implementation of more sustainable economic policy. Using a case study, the authors describe how economic and environmental forecasts can be developed that are relevant to the immediate concerns of policy-makers and are more likely to lead to policy changes. A combination of forecasting methods are shown to evaluate a range of current alternatives in the future. Similar techniques have been used in developing countries, but here the techniques are applied to an already industrialized economy.

A book on practical business forecasting belongs in the library of everyone interested in business. Forecasting is extremely important to finance and accounting executives, business economists and managers at all levels.
Strategic Business Forecasting: The Complete Guide to Forecasting Real World Company Performance provides you with a working knowledge of the fundamentals of business forecasting that can be applied in the real world regardless of the size of the firm. The author explains the basic forecasting methodology and the practical applications. All aspects of business are discussed, making this a comprehensive and valuable reference.
The author avoids theoretical and mathematical discussions to gets right into how, when , and why to use this book. Many practical examples, applications, illustrations, guidelines, measures, checklists, rules of thumb, tips, graphs, diagrams and tables aid your comprehension of the subject. The author displays and explains printouts obtained using many popular spreadsheet programs and software packages.
The book goes far beyond just sales forecasting, encompassing a wide range of topics of major importance to practical business managers and finance professionals, including cash flow forecasting, cost prediction, earnings forecasts, bankruptcy prediction, foreign exchange forecasting, and interest rate forecasting. Written in an easy-to-read style, it is practical, current, and intriguing - a reference book to use throughout your business career.

Drawing on interviews with the UK government's Panel of Independent Forecasters, the author shows how economic models, forecasts and policy analysis depend crucially upon the judgements of economists.

This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently - at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly - depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.

This book offers an in-depth analysis of the current state of the African economy and makes constructive suggestions about its future direction. The contributors argue that despite enduring challenges such as food security and employment creation, Africa faces a brighter future in sustainable growth provided that governance and policy- making are effectively employed to maintain peace, achieve greater regional collaboration and encourage private sector competitiveness.

eBook available with sample pages: 0203022939

The "Regional Handbooks of Economic Development" series provides accessible overviews of countries within their larger domestic and international contexts, focusing on the relations among regions as they meet the challenges of the twenty first century.
The series allows the non-specialist student to explore a wide range of complex factors-social and political as well as economic-that affect the growth of developing regions in Asia, Europe, and South America. Each "Handbook" provides an overview chapter discussing the region's economic conditions within an historical and political context, as well as 20 or more chapter-length essays written by recognized experts, which analyze the key issues affecting a region's economy: its population, natural resources, foreign trade, labor problems, and economic inequalities, and other vital factors.
In addition, the volumes offer useful support materials, including a series of appendices that include a detailed chronology of events in the region, a glossary of terms, biographical entries on key personalities, an annotated bibliography of further reading, and a comprehensive analytical index.

In this book, Nagesh Kumar and expert contributors examine and explain the emerging patterns in international technology transfers and foreign direct investment flows (FDIs) over the past two decades. They analyse the trends in internationalization of corporate activity in individual source countries, discussing outflows from both major and emerging source countries. This departs from the existing treatments of FDI as homogenous resource and allows for a more detailed prediction of future outflow patterns. Throughout, the research focuses upon the implications of new trends for developing countries. Kumar concludes by outlining the policy implications for the governments of such countries seeking to mobilize technology and FDI for their industrialization and further integration into the international community. Controversially, he cautions against excessive optimism about the potential of FDI inflows as an agent of development. This book draws together much data and information which is not readily available and provides reflections upon international business negotiations from a developing country's perspective.

This survey uses up-to-date methodological apparatus including sophisticated computer modelling techniques to identify the key political, social and economic trends which are likely to shape the East Asian region at the millennium and beyond. An international team of experts address a range of critical areas including the following: strategy and the role of the west; east Asia and the information society; Japan at the turning point and the "return to Asia"; North and South Korea - unification and brinkmanship; China - power and greater China; and ASEAN and development.

Praise for Wide Angle Vision "In this book, Wayne Burkan shows us that the vantage points from which we view and act can earn us critical advantages if we are willing to stretch our thoughts and practices beyond the edge of conventional thinking." - Robert W. Galvin Chairman of the Executive Committee and former CEO of Motorola "Wayne Burkan's Wide-Angle Vision is a very pragmatic and useful guide to dealing with and implementing change. His concept of 'edge' as it relates to customers, employees, and competitors should help many organizations struggling with the rapidly changing marketplace and the endless panaceas being promoted." - David R. Stamper Vice President and General Manager, Hitachi Data Systems, Latin American Division "At Southwest Airlines, we redefined air transportation by utilizing 'edge thinking.' Wayne Burkan is offering a 'flight plan' that if studied, understood, and followed, will improve your bottom line for the long term. If you really want to be on the 'leading edge' for your product or service, this is the place to begin." - Howard Putnam Speaker, author, and former CEO of Southwest Airlines "Wayne Burkan has brought our attention to a great source of potential opportunities for profitable growth if we take his advice and really listen to those challenging customers, potential customers, small competitors, and unhappy employees whom we often want to dismiss as difficult." - D. H. Davis President and Chief Operating Officer, Rockwell International Corporation "Strategically thought-provoking! It's just what busy leaders need to ensure they are focused on gaining a competitive edge. An easy-to-read wake up call for organizations and managers. Wayne Burkan challenges us to confront the perils of tunnel vision and the promise of a wider perspective. So simple, so clear, so right!" - Donald Himelfarb President, Thrifty Rent-A-Car System, Inc. Conventional business wisdom says to get close to your best customers, watch your biggest competitors, and reward your model employees. This controversial book offers a contrarian viewpoint and introduces a dynamic new way to compete-by broadening your focus beyond mainstream thinking to spot the critical opportunities at the edge of your core business. Wide-Angle Vision opens your eyes to the "edge," from "little guy" competitors preparing to take over the market to disgruntled customers and maverick employees whose complaints can lead to great ideas for change. Listening to complaining employees pays off. That's where the idea for Java(r) , Sun Microsystems' successful Internet programming system, came from. With Wide-Angle Vision, now you can learn how to use "edge" groups to sharpen your competitiveness by reducing surprise, increasing innovation, and satisfying customers. Filled with compelling examples from a range of industries and drawing on Wayne Burkan's extensive consulting experience with IBM, Ford, and others, Wide-Angle Vision equips you with specific action techniques that can enable you to: Anticipate crises before they occur by using "splatter vision," scenarios, and benchmarking Find breakthrough solutions to difficult problems by looking outside your field Create powerful, flexible teams that work-from "edge" teams to ideal teams Reduce resistance to organizational change through skillful timing, finding perfect change agents, and more Reengineer with lower risk and greater efficiency, using an effective seven-step plan for change Avoid tunnel vision by broadening your perspective-to the edges of what's happening in the mainstream In today's rapidly changing marketplace, opportunities are all around you. Wide-Angle Vision gives you the power to look them in the eye and develop the daring skills you need to be a leading-and lasting-"edge" competitor.

This survey uses up-to-date methodological apparatus including sophisticated computer modelling techniques to identify the key political, social and economic trends which are likely to shape the East Asian region at the millennium and beyond. An international team of experts address a range of critical areas including the following: strategy and the role of the west; east Asia and the information society; Japan at the turning point and the "return to Asia"; North and South Korea - unification and brinkmanship; China - power and greater China; and ASEAN and development.

The importance of house prices to households, real estate developers, banks and policy-makers cannot be overemphasised. House price changes affect consumer spending and business investment patterns, which in turn affect the wider macro economy and the entire business cycle. Measuring and understanding house prices is therefore essential to a functioning economy, but researchers continue to disagree on the best methodological approach for constructing real estate indices. This book argues the need for more accurate house price indices, outlines the various methods used to construct indices and discusses the existing house price indices around the globe. It shows how the raw data of property transactions can be prepared for the purpose of constructing indices, discusses various applications of property price indices and empirically demonstrates how the index numbers can be used to model the supply of new houses and to estimate the price elasticity of supply. Essential reading for economists, real estate professionals and researchers, and policy-makers.

This work presents a predicted summary of major economic challenges facing the United States in the last years of the 20th century. Intended to shape the platforms of the major parties and the general public, it contains proposals by leading specialists aimed at resolving such challenges.

This work presents a predicted summary of major economic challenges facing the United States in the last years of the 20th century. Intended to shape the platforms of the major parties and the general public, it contains proposals by leading specialists aimed at resolving such challenges.

The geography of services is no longer of local or national significance: it now embraces the international stage. Service industries have enabled, and themselves become participants in, world trade. Although this is not a new role, during the 1980s they have become a much more active ingredient in the process of social and economic change.

New and diversified service products have generated increased consumption, ranging from tourism and leisure, to sophisticated innovations in ways of making finance capital available for corporate growth or production strategies. But there are spatial variations between the world's nations, regions and cities that ensure a highly uneven ability to supply services, and to generate demand. There are contrasts between the developed, less-developed, and post-socialist economies of Eastern Europe, for example, and between major metropolitan areas around the globe in the extent to which they experience the positive (as well as negative) effects of the internationalization of the service economy.

This book examines some explanations for the expanding role of services in the world economy. It is suggested that the resulting patterns are particularly significant for the form and function of the global urban system. The book concludes by reflecting on the future role of services in the world economy: can the trends evident for the 1980s be assumed to shape the evolving geography of services during the 1990s and beyond?

First published in 1980, this compact and useful book uses the earliest volumes of government-published statistics, and with the aid of computer-generated cartography, transforms the numbers there reported into an arrondissement-by-arrondissement comparative picture of French agriculture in the mid-1830s. Clout reviews problems of rapid population growth, scarcely adequate domestic food supplies and primitive systems of transportation, while attention is drawn to spatial variations in agricultural activity and productivity. Commercial, high-yielding farming was best developed in a northern multi-nuclear region, comprising of Ile-de-France, Normandy and Nord, with smaller foci of commercial orientation along an eastern axis from Alsace to Marseilles and in western areas from the Loire to the middle of the Garonne valley. Clout concludes that the revolutionary promise of national economic unity was far from being realised in the 1830s and was not to be achieved until national systems of transport and education were firmly established later in the nineteenth century.

This title was first published in 2000: Sustainable development offers visions of the future, but implementation of new sustainable policies seems slow. This text presents a forecasting method directed to overcome some barriers to the implementation of more sustainable economic policy. Using a case study, the authors describe how economic and environmental forecasts can be developed that are relevant to the immediate concerns of policy-makers and are more likely to lead to policy changes. A combination of forecasting methods are shown to evaluate a range of current alternatives in the future. Similar techniques have been used in developing countries, but here the techniques are applied to an already industrialized economy.

In The Economic Transformations in East and Central Europe the contributors argue that the area's economic history over the last century contains vital legacies that will shape its economic future. The book is an invaluable guide to understanding the current and future problems of this volatile region, and includes analysis of individual countries with comparative studies.

This analysis of macroeconomic policy, originally published in 1989, argues that key government objectives, such as reduced inflation, decreased unemployment and an adequate level of national saving can be achieved only by employing both monetary and fiscal policies, in conjunction with supply-side policies expressly designed to improve the workings of the labour market. Part 1 is a comparative analysis showing the effects of monetary and fiscal policy on the economy. Real-wage rigidity in the labour market is shown to have important consequences for the working of both types of policy, because it conditions the economy's response to tax changes. Part 2 presents an econometric model which combines consistent stock-flow accounts with a full range of expectational effects. Part 3 presents an innovative technique for solving rational expectations models with the need for arbitary terminal conditions.

The instant New York Times bestseller from legendary investment guru Ric Edelman, who presents a prescient personal finance guide on how technology and science will reshape the way we save, invest, and plan for the future.

In The Truth About Your Future, award-winning financial advisor Ric Edelman reveals how technology and science are evolving at a blistering, almost incomprehensible pace--with profound implications for your personal finances. Ric radically upends traditional financial planning, showing that you need not just one financial plan, but three--one for now, one for later and one for much later. He explains: Why you're likely to live much longer--and the impact on your financial future; how you must alter your plans to shift from the familiar linear lifeline (school-job-retirement-death) to the new cyclical lifeline; the importance of Career Planning--even if you're in your fifties or sixties; how to invest in tech companies and how to generate income from your investments; why nursing homes are becoming obsolete--and with them, long-term care insurance policies, and what this means for you; how to protect your digital assets; and how you'll spend your time--and money--in retirement, and why the future will be the happiest time of your life.

The traditional paradigms of how we live, learn, and invest are shifting under our feet. Fortunately, Ric Edelman has seen the future, and in The Truth About Your Future he illustrates how smart investors can adapt and thrive in today's changing marketplace. Newcomers and loyal Edelman followers alike will find value in his proven advice and trademark humor. This is a must-have guide for anyone serious about successfully adapting to the ever-evolving financial landscape.

This volume, originally published in 1979, examines systematically the nature of control in both capitalist and socialist economies, develops a theoretical and applied framework which can embrace both macroeconomics and plannng and demonstates the essential unity of all forms of macroeconomic planning by the consistent application of basic economic principles. Firstly, the authors establish why societies feel a need for government control and examine the mechanisms by which such social decisions are reached. Next they examine the nature of economic data, the modelling of economic systems nad a review of practical policy goals and instruments. The book then reviews the basic theory of optimisation and elaborates it in the context of planning for growth, for stabilisation and under uncertainty. It closes with an analysis of practical planning based on French and Soviet experience.