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Books > Business & Economics > Economics > Economic forecasting
The future is an uncertain, uncomfortable prospect for employees, employers and society at large. A flurry of unprecedented events have proven that, despite what some politicians and economists may tell us, the future is not set in stone. Instead, it is constantly being shaped and redefined by the everyday decisions of individuals and organizations. In light of this uncertainty, The Future Starts Now looks toward the various innovations and technologies that may shape our future. Authors Theo Priestley and Bronwyn Williams have brought together the world's leading futurists to articulate and clarify the current trajectories in technology, economics, politics and business. This is a comprehensive history of tomorrow, exploring groundbreaking topics such as AI, privacy, education and the future of work. While the guidance, insight and predictions are fascinating for anyone curious about what the future may hold, the book also functions as an invaluable guide for business professionals looking to steer their career or their organization with foresight and confidence.
The instant New York Times bestseller from legendary investment guru Ric Edelman, who presents a prescient personal finance guide on how technology and science will reshape the way we save, invest, and plan for the future. In The Truth About Your Future, award-winning financial advisor Ric Edelman reveals how technology and science are evolving at a blistering, almost incomprehensible pace--with profound implications for your personal finances. Ric radically upends traditional financial planning, showing that you need not just one financial plan, but three--one for now, one for later and one for much later. He explains: Why you're likely to live much longer--and the impact on your financial future; how you must alter your plans to shift from the familiar linear lifeline (school-job-retirement-death) to the new cyclical lifeline; the importance of Career Planning--even if you're in your fifties or sixties; how to invest in tech companies and how to generate income from your investments; why nursing homes are becoming obsolete--and with them, long-term care insurance policies, and what this means for you; how to protect your digital assets; and how you'll spend your time--and money--in retirement, and why the future will be the happiest time of your life. The traditional paradigms of how we live, learn, and invest are shifting under our feet. Fortunately, Ric Edelman has seen the future, and in The Truth About Your Future he illustrates how smart investors can adapt and thrive in today's changing marketplace. Newcomers and loyal Edelman followers alike will find value in his proven advice and trademark humor. This is a must-have guide for anyone serious about successfully adapting to the ever-evolving financial landscape.
We live in a world in which financial markets have become completely decoupled from the real economy… The world’s four largest banks now all reside in one nation: China… Lines of code are considered more trustworthy than central banks… In this broad-ranging, deeply researched review of modern banking and financial systems, analysts David Buckham, Robyn Wilkinson and Christiaan Straeuli unpick in parallel the ongoing erosion of trust in capitalist free markets and Western democratic institutions, and the directly related, unprecedented growth of the Chinese banking system. The former is a decades-long tale of intermittent market manipulation, inadequately regulated hubris and outright criminality, which produced the Global Financial Crisis, the most devastating financial meltdown since the Great Depression. The latter, which in various ways mirrors the conditions that led to the Crisis, may well prove worse. In detailing the unheeded lessons of financial history, the authors reveal how the inconsistently managed tension between free markets and government regulation has led us from depression and regulation to deregulation and crisis. And with incursions into string theory, the mathematics of cryptocurrency and the intricacies of money supply, we discover what happens when an authoritarian command economy fills the moral and ideological vacuum left behind. In a post-Covid world – in which we are witnessing booming stock markets entirely disconnected from real-world economic hardship, and communist billionaires propagating just as global inequality skyrockets – public trust in the international banking system has never been lower. This is an unprecedented survey of a fraught and complex landscape that has never been more urgent.
A book on practical business forecasting belongs in the library of everyone interested in business. Forecasting is extremely important to finance and accounting executives, business economists and managers at all levels.
Drawing on interviews with the UK government's Panel of Independent Forecasters, the author shows how economic models, forecasts and policy analysis depend crucially upon the judgements of economists.
Can we abolish global poverty? Should we do away with foreign aid? Is the United Nations redundant? Why should I bother? Can I help?Mike Edwards offers timely answers to issues that have been propelled to center stage. "Future Positive" is a comprehensive and authoritative rethink of an international system facing a period of unprecedented change. In a world of globalizing markets, eroding state sovereignty, expanding citizen action and uncertainty about fundamental truths, what is the best way to tackle problems of global poverty and violence?Michael Edwards charts a "third way" between heavy-handed intervention and complete laissez-faire. Covering an enormous amount of ground in clear, lively and non-technical terms, "Future Positive" explains how the international system operates, the pressures it faces, and the changes it must undergo, and offers concrete new ideas to re-frame international relations and foreign aid.
The "Regional Handbooks of Economic Development" series provides
accessible overviews of countries within their larger domestic and
international contexts, focusing on the relations among regions as
they meet the challenges of the twenty first century.
In this book, Nagesh Kumar and expert contributors examine and explain the emerging patterns in international technology transfers and foreign direct investment flows (FDIs) over the past two decades. They analyse the trends in internationalization of corporate activity in individual source countries, discussing outflows from both major and emerging source countries. This departs from the existing treatments of FDI as homogenous resource and allows for a more detailed prediction of future outflow patterns. Throughout, the research focuses upon the implications of new trends for developing countries. Kumar concludes by outlining the policy implications for the governments of such countries seeking to mobilize technology and FDI for their industrialization and further integration into the international community. Controversially, he cautions against excessive optimism about the potential of FDI inflows as an agent of development. This book draws together much data and information which is not readily available and provides reflections upon international business negotiations from a developing country's perspective.
This survey uses up-to-date methodological apparatus including sophisticated computer modelling techniques to identify the key political, social and economic trends which are likely to shape the East Asian region at the millennium and beyond. An international team of experts address a range of critical areas including the following: strategy and the role of the west; east Asia and the information society; Japan at the turning point and the "return to Asia"; North and South Korea - unification and brinkmanship; China - power and greater China; and ASEAN and development.
This survey uses up-to-date methodological apparatus including sophisticated computer modelling techniques to identify the key political, social and economic trends which are likely to shape the East Asian region at the millennium and beyond. An international team of experts address a range of critical areas including the following: strategy and the role of the west; east Asia and the information society; Japan at the turning point and the "return to Asia"; North and South Korea - unification and brinkmanship; China - power and greater China; and ASEAN and development.
'A fascinating book . . . Bhaskar is a reassuringly positive and often witty guide' Observer 'A fascinating, must-read book covering a vast array of topics from the arts to the sciences, technology to policy. This is a brilliant and thought-provoking response to one of the most critical questions of our age: how we will come up with the next generation of innovation and truly fresh ideas?' Mustafa Suleyman, cofounder of DeepMind and Google VP 'Have "big ideas" and big social and economic changes disappeared from the scene? Michael Bhaskar's Human Frontiers is the best look at these all-important questions.' Tyler Cowen, author of The Great Stagnation and The Complacent Class 'Michael Bhaskar explores the disturbing possibility that a complacent, cautious civilization has lost ambition and is slowly sinking into technological stagnation rather than accelerating into a magical future. He is calling for bold, adventurous innovators to go big again. A fascinating book' Matt Ridley, author of How Innovation Works Where next for humanity? Is our future one of endless improvement in all areas of life, from technology and travel to medicine, movies and music? Or are our best years behind us? It's easy to assume that the story of modern society is one of consistent, radical progress, but this is no longer true: more academics are researching than ever before but their work leads to fewer breakthroughs; innovation is incremental, limited to the digital sphere; the much-vaunted cure for cancer remains elusive; space travel has stalled since the heady era of the moonshot; politics is stuck in a rut, and the creative industries seem trapped in an ongoing cycle of rehashing genres and classics. The most ambitious ideas now struggle. Our great-great-great grandparents saw a series of transformative ideas revolutionise almost everything in just a few decades. Today, in contrast, short termism, risk aversion, and fractious decision making leaves the landscape timid and unimaginative. In Human Frontiers, Michael Bhaskar draws a vividly entertaining and expansive portrait of humanity's relationship with big ideas. He argues that stasis at the frontier is the result of having already pushed so far, taken easy wins and started to hit limits. But new thinking is still possible. By adopting bold global approaches, deploying cutting edge technology like AI and embracing a culture of change, we can push through and expand afresh. Perfect for anyone who has wondered why we haven't gone further, this book shows in fascinating detail how the 21st century could stall - or be the most revolutionary time in human history.
This title was first published in 2000: Sustainable development offers visions of the future, but implementation of new sustainable policies seems slow. This text presents a forecasting method directed to overcome some barriers to the implementation of more sustainable economic policy. Using a case study, the authors describe how economic and environmental forecasts can be developed that are relevant to the immediate concerns of policy-makers and are more likely to lead to policy changes. A combination of forecasting methods are shown to evaluate a range of current alternatives in the future. Similar techniques have been used in developing countries, but here the techniques are applied to an already industrialized economy.
This work presents a predicted summary of major economic challenges facing the United States in the last years of the 20th century. Intended to shape the platforms of the major parties and the general public, it contains proposals by leading specialists aimed at resolving such challenges.
This work presents a predicted summary of major economic challenges facing the United States in the last years of the 20th century. Intended to shape the platforms of the major parties and the general public, it contains proposals by leading specialists aimed at resolving such challenges.
Ageing populations are a major consideration for socio-economic development in the early twenty-first century. This demographic change is mainly seen as a threat rather than as an opportunity to improve the quality of human life, especially in Europe, where ageing has resulted in a reduction in economic competitiveness. Economic Foundations for Creative Ageing Policy mixes the silver economy, the creative economy, and the social economy to construct positive solutions for an ageing population. Klimczuk covers theoretical analyses and case study descriptions of good practices to suggest strategies that could be internationally popularized.
This seventh volume in the series covers a variety of topics in financial planning and forecasting.
The importance of house prices to households, real estate developers, banks and policy-makers cannot be overemphasised. House price changes affect consumer spending and business investment patterns, which in turn affect the wider macro economy and the entire business cycle. Measuring and understanding house prices is therefore essential to a functioning economy, but researchers continue to disagree on the best methodological approach for constructing real estate indices. This book argues the need for more accurate house price indices, outlines the various methods used to construct indices and discusses the existing house price indices around the globe. It shows how the raw data of property transactions can be prepared for the purpose of constructing indices, discusses various applications of property price indices and empirically demonstrates how the index numbers can be used to model the supply of new houses and to estimate the price elasticity of supply. Essential reading for economists, real estate professionals and researchers, and policy-makers.
In The Economic Transformations in East and Central Europe the contributors argue that the area's economic history over the last century contains vital legacies that will shape its economic future. The book is an invaluable guide to understanding the current and future problems of this volatile region, and includes analysis of individual countries with comparative studies.
First published in 1980, this compact and useful book uses the earliest volumes of government-published statistics, and with the aid of computer-generated cartography, transforms the numbers there reported into an arrondissement-by-arrondissement comparative picture of French agriculture in the mid-1830s. Clout reviews problems of rapid population growth, scarcely adequate domestic food supplies and primitive systems of transportation, while attention is drawn to spatial variations in agricultural activity and productivity. Commercial, high-yielding farming was best developed in a northern multi-nuclear region, comprising of Ile-de-France, Normandy and Nord, with smaller foci of commercial orientation along an eastern axis from Alsace to Marseilles and in western areas from the Loire to the middle of the Garonne valley. Clout concludes that the revolutionary promise of national economic unity was far from being realised in the 1830s and was not to be achieved until national systems of transport and education were firmly established later in the nineteenth century.
This title was first published in 2000: Sustainable development offers visions of the future, but implementation of new sustainable policies seems slow. This text presents a forecasting method directed to overcome some barriers to the implementation of more sustainable economic policy. Using a case study, the authors describe how economic and environmental forecasts can be developed that are relevant to the immediate concerns of policy-makers and are more likely to lead to policy changes. A combination of forecasting methods are shown to evaluate a range of current alternatives in the future. Similar techniques have been used in developing countries, but here the techniques are applied to an already industrialized economy.
This volume, originally published in 1979, examines systematically the nature of control in both capitalist and socialist economies, develops a theoretical and applied framework which can embrace both macroeconomics and plannng and demonstates the essential unity of all forms of macroeconomic planning by the consistent application of basic economic principles. Firstly, the authors establish why societies feel a need for government control and examine the mechanisms by which such social decisions are reached. Next they examine the nature of economic data, the modelling of economic systems nad a review of practical policy goals and instruments. The book then reviews the basic theory of optimisation and elaborates it in the context of planning for growth, for stabilisation and under uncertainty. It closes with an analysis of practical planning based on French and Soviet experience.
This analysis of macroeconomic policy, originally published in 1989, argues that key government objectives, such as reduced inflation, decreased unemployment and an adequate level of national saving can be achieved only by employing both monetary and fiscal policies, in conjunction with supply-side policies expressly designed to improve the workings of the labour market. Part 1 is a comparative analysis showing the effects of monetary and fiscal policy on the economy. Real-wage rigidity in the labour market is shown to have important consequences for the working of both types of policy, because it conditions the economy's response to tax changes. Part 2 presents an econometric model which combines consistent stock-flow accounts with a full range of expectational effects. Part 3 presents an innovative technique for solving rational expectations models with the need for arbitary terminal conditions.
Before the handover to China in 1997, Hong Kong's economic growth was very strong and the unemployment rate dropped to a record low of 2.2 per cent. In recent years, the widening income dispersion in Hong Kong has caught public attention. This book investigates the economic development and changes in income distribution of Hong Kong from different perspectives. Based on latest empirical evidence of Hong Kong, the book examines the relationship between economic restructuring and rising income disparity. Public housing programmes in Hong Kong affect half of the population directly and the other half indirectly. This book assesses the redistributive effect of public rental housing on income distribution. Moreover, Hong Kong embarked an ambitious expansion programme of tertiary education in 1989. The expansion represents an exogenous increase in the supply of university graduates and the book evaluates the impact on income distribution. It also investigates the income dispersion among and between natives and immigrants. Researchers, politicians and policy makers should be interested to learn about the causes of rising income dispersion in post-handover Hong Kong uncovered in this book. Although economic restructuring is named as the prime suspect that caused rising income inequality, the empirical evidence proves otherwise. The book will be of interest to policy makers with implications on social security system and income disparity.
The field of behavioural economics can tell us a great deal about cognitive bias and unconscious decision-making, challenging the orthodox economic model whereby consumers make rational and informed choices. But it is in the arena of health that it perhaps offers individuals and governments the most value. In this important new book, the most pernicious health issues we face today are examined through a behavioral economic lens. It provides an essential and timely overview of how this growing field of study can reframe and offer solutions to some of the biggest health issues of our age. The book opens with an overview of the core theoretical concepts, after which each chapter assesses how behavioral economic research and practice can inform public policy across a range of health issues. Including chapters on tobacco, alcohol and drug use, physical activity, dietary intake, cancer screening and sexual health, the book integrates the key insights from the field to both developed and developing nations. Also asking important ethical questions around paternalism and informed choice, this book will be essential reading for students and researchers across psychology, economics and business and management, as well as public health professionals wishing for a concise overview of the role behavioral economics can potentially play in allowing people to live healthier lives. |
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