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Books > Business & Economics > Economics > Economic forecasting

TradingView Pine Script Programming From Scratch - Build indicators, signal generators, backtest and automate trading logic... TradingView Pine Script Programming From Scratch - Build indicators, signal generators, backtest and automate trading logic (Paperback)
R464 Discovery Miles 4 640 Ships in 10 - 15 working days
Electrical Load Forecasting - Modeling and Model Construction (Paperback): S. A Soliman, Ahmad Mohammad Al-Kandari Electrical Load Forecasting - Modeling and Model Construction (Paperback)
S. A Soliman, Ahmad Mohammad Al-Kandari
R3,246 R2,951 Discovery Miles 29 510 Save R295 (9%) Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Succinct and understandable, this book is a step-by-step guide to the mathematics and construction of electrical load forecasting models. Written by one of the world's foremost experts on the subject, Electrical Load Forecasting provides a brief discussion of algorithms, their advantages and disadvantages and when they are best utilized. The book begins with a good description of the basic theory and models needed to truly understand how the models are prepared so that they are not just blindly plugging and chugging numbers. This is followed by a clear and rigorous exposition of the statistical techniques and algorithms such as regression, neural networks, fuzzy logic, and expert systems. The book is also supported by an online computer program that allows readers to construct, validate, and run short and long term models.

Electricity Cost Modeling Calculations (Paperback): Monica Greer Electricity Cost Modeling Calculations (Paperback)
Monica Greer
R2,727 R2,489 Discovery Miles 24 890 Save R238 (9%) Ships in 12 - 17 working days

A "quick look up guide," Electricity Cost Modeling Calculations places the relevant formulae and calculations at the reader's finger tips. In this book, theories are explained in a nutshell and then the calculation is presented and solved in an illustrated, step-by-step fashion. A valuable guide for new engineers, economists (or forecasters), regulators, and policy makers who want to further develop their knowledge of best practice calculations techniques or experienced practitioners (and even managers) who desire to acquire more useful tips, this book offers expert advice for using such cost models to determine optimally-sized distribution systems and optimally-structured power supplying entities. In other words, this book provides an Everything-that-you-want-to-know-about-cost-modelling-for-electric-utilities (but were afraid to ask) approach to modelling the cost of supplying electricity. In addition, the author covers the concept of multiproduct and multistage cost functions, which are appropriate in modelling the cost of supplying electricity. The author has done all the heavy number-crunching, and provides the reader with real-world, practical examples of how to properly quantify the costs associated with providing electric service, thus increasing the accuracy of the results and support for the policy initiatives required to ensure the competitiveness of the power suppliers in this new world in which we are living. The principles contained herein could be employed to assist in the determination of the cost-minimizing amount of output (i.e., electricity), which could then be used to determine whether a merger between two entities makes sense (i.e., would increase profitability). Other examples abound: public regulatory commissions also need help in determining whether mergers (or divestitures) are welfare-enhancing or not; ratemaking policies depend on costs and properly determining the costs of supplying electric (or gas, water, and local telephone) service. Policy makers, too, can benefit in terms of optimal market structure; after all, the premise of deregulation of the electric industry was predicated on the idea that generation could be deregulated. Unfortunately, the economies of vertical integration between the generation.

Development Economics (Paperback, Ed): David Forsyth, Mozammel Huq, Anthony Clunies-Ross Development Economics (Paperback, Ed)
David Forsyth, Mozammel Huq, Anthony Clunies-Ross
R2,242 Discovery Miles 22 420 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Broad beliefs about the economics of 'developing countries' and of the development process have changed considerably since the subject became of wide interest in the 1950s; due largely to changes in the world and in the application of economic policies within developing countries. Subjects such as environment, gender, poverty, famine and globalization have come to be of increasingly important public interest. The extreme divergence of experience among regions of the world has also made it more and more questionable whether it even makes sense to think of a single and distinctive 'economics of developing countries'. This textbook presents a concise and up-to-date examination of the field of development economics, bringing together historical perspectives, current issues and policy implications. Each chapter can be read as a stand-alone unit, or as part of the wider economic debates presented throughout the book.

World Economic Outlook, October 2010 (Chinese) - Recovery, Risk, and Rebalancing (Paperback): IMF Staff World Economic Outlook, October 2010 (Chinese) - Recovery, Risk, and Rebalancing (Paperback)
IMF Staff
R1,705 R1,269 Discovery Miles 12 690 Save R436 (26%) Ships in 12 - 17 working days

The recovery from the Great Recession is proceeding broadly as expected, but most advanced economies and a few emerging economies still face large adjustments, are recovering only sluggishly, and have continued high unemployment. By contrast, many emerging and developing economies are again seeing strong growth. A sustained, healthy global recovery rests on two rebalancing acts: internal rebalancing, with a strengthening of private demand in advanced economies, allowing for fiscal consolidation; and external rebalancing, with an increase in net exports in deficit countries and a decrease in net exports in surplus countries, notably emerging Asia. This edition of the World Economic Outlook examines the interactions between these two rebalancing acts and explores the policies required to support them. One of the two analytical chapters examines the effects on output and employment of fiscal consolidation in advanced economies using detailed budget data, and the other examines the collapse and recovery of trade in economies that have experienced crises.

Essays in Honor of Cheng Hsiao (Hardcover): Dek Terrell, Tong Li, M. Hashem Pesaran Essays in Honor of Cheng Hsiao (Hardcover)
Dek Terrell, Tong Li, M. Hashem Pesaran
R3,858 Discovery Miles 38 580 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Including contributions spanning a variety of theoretical and applied topics in econometrics, this volume of Advances in Econometrics is published in honour of Cheng Hsiao. In the first few chapters of this book, new theoretical panel and time series results are presented, exploring JIVE estimators, HAC, HAR and various sandwich estimators, as well as asymptotic distributions for using information criteria to distinguish between the unit root model and explosive models. Other chapters address topics such as structural breaks or growth empirics; auction models; and semiparametric methods testing for common vs. individual trends. Three chapters provide novel empirical approaches to applied problems, such as estimating the impact of survey mode on responses, or investigating how cross-sectional and spatial dependence of mortgages varies by default rates and geography. In the final chapters, Cheng Hsiao offers a forward-focused discussion of the role of big data in economics. For any researcher of econometrics, this is an unmissable volume of the most current and engaging research in the field.

Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Volume 2A (Hardcover): Graham Elliott, Allan Timmermann Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Volume 2A (Hardcover)
Graham Elliott, Allan Timmermann
R2,858 Discovery Miles 28 580 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the futurecomes fromthe core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and "ex post" studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2Acovers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2Binvestigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literaturescattered acrossappliedand theoretical statistics journals as well aseconometrics and empirical economics journals. "The Handbook of Economic Forecasting" Volumes 2A and 2Bprovide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues.
Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applicationsPresents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applicationsMakes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics"

Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Volume 2B (Hardcover, New): Graham Elliott, Allan Timmermann Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Volume 2B (Hardcover, New)
Graham Elliott, Allan Timmermann
R2,837 Discovery Miles 28 370 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the futurecomes fromthe core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and "ex post" studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2Acovers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2Binvestigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literaturescattered acrossappliedand theoretical statistics journals as well aseconometrics and empirical economics journals. "The Handbook of Economic Forecasting" Volumes 2A and 2Bprovide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues.
Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applicationsPresents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applicationsMakes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics"

Tides in the Affairs of Men - An Approach to the Appraisal of Economic Change (Paperback): Edgar Lawrence Smith Tides in the Affairs of Men - An Approach to the Appraisal of Economic Change (Paperback)
Edgar Lawrence Smith
R413 Discovery Miles 4 130 Ships in 10 - 15 working days
Forecasting Fundamentals (Paperback): Nada R. Sanders Forecasting Fundamentals (Paperback)
Nada R. Sanders
R547 R445 Discovery Miles 4 450 Save R102 (19%) Ships in 10 - 15 working days

Business leaders know that accurate forecasting is a critical organizational capability. Forecasting is predicting the future, and the list of what needs to be predicted to run a world-class organization and its supply chain is virtually endless. Forecasting goes well beyond simply predicting demand or sales. Accurate forecasts are essential for identifying new market opportunities, forecasting risks, events, supply chain disruptions, innovation, competition, market growth and trends. It also includes the ability to conduct a what-ifa analysis to understand the tradeoff implications of decisions. Over the past few years the ability to make accurate and useful forecasts has become particularly challenging due to a spike in the competitiveness of global markets coupled with a global economic recession. Customers are demanding increasingly shorter response times, improved quality, and greater product choice. Increased competition is exacerbated by a downward global economy and rising fuel prices, which increase uncertainty, risk, and operating costs. The result has been a sharp rise in the complexity of what needs to be forecasted. In an era of rapid change, historical data that are typically used to make forecasts can be of limited value. At the same time information technology has enabled forecasts to drive entire supply chains and enterprise resources planning systems. However, more technology and software, without an understanding of how they can most effectively be utilized, are not the answer to improving forecast accuracy

Observations on W.D. Gann Vol. 2 - Price - Time - Volume - Velocity (Paperback): Awodele Observations on W.D. Gann Vol. 2 - Price - Time - Volume - Velocity (Paperback)
Awodele
R609 Discovery Miles 6 090 Ships in 10 - 15 working days
The Little (illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting - A short introduction to the practice and pitfalls of short term... The Little (illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting - A short introduction to the practice and pitfalls of short term forecasting - and how to increase its value to the business (Paperback)
Dr Steve Morlidge
R451 R365 Discovery Miles 3 650 Save R86 (19%) Ships in 9 - 15 working days

This is a guidebook about short term Operational Forecasting - the sort that is done to determine how much product you need to source or how many people you need to draft in to meet customer demand. It is organized under 5 headings: 1. The purpose of operational forecasting 2. Understanding demand 3. Forecasting methods 4. Understanding forecast performance 5. Managing forecast performance. The first two sections and part of section three are essential reading for anyone involved in or responsible for operational forecasting. The rest of the book is most helpful for practitioners. The aim is to produce something that provides a useful introduction to operational forecasting for both practitioners and their bosses by filling in the gap that lies between a naive common sense understanding of short term forecasting and the complex technicalities of mathematical forecasting techniques. The authors background as a self-taught business orientated forecasting nerd with limited mathematical expertise qualifies who tell it the way it is makes him well qualified to fill this gap. The book has been designed to be simple but not simplistic, using short and to the point learning points supported by clear graphics. It is technically sound but also highly practical. The hope is that it will help create a common language to help people talk intelligently about forecasting and help stop people doing dumb stuff - which is where most of the potential for improvement lies. It will also help people design good forecast processes and informed software purchasing decisions. In doing so it will help people realize that forecasting is important and that investing in people as well as software will generate enormous benefits for many businesses.

How You Can Profit from the Coming Devaluation (Paperback): Harry Browne How You Can Profit from the Coming Devaluation (Paperback)
Harry Browne; Introduction by Roger Lipton
R435 Discovery Miles 4 350 Ships in 10 - 15 working days

LESSONS FROM THE 1970s, MORE RELEVANT THAN EVER IN 2012, BY HARRY BROWNE

Checking Out - What the Rise of the Sharing Economy Means for the Future of the Hotel Industry (Hardcover): Katherine Doggrell Checking Out - What the Rise of the Sharing Economy Means for the Future of the Hotel Industry (Hardcover)
Katherine Doggrell
R511 Discovery Miles 5 110 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Is it time for traditional hotels to check out? As one of the world's most established industries, the hotel sector has remained relatively unchanged and unchallenged for decades. Yet traditional hotels have recently come under increasing pressure on two major fronts: from disruptors in the sharing economy such as Airbnb, and by a rising wave of modern consumers who have become re-educated by social media and hotel comparison websites. Can this traditionally slow-moving sector reinvent itself or will it become increasingly marginalized? Is it time for traditional hotels to check out? Increasing numbers of hoteliers believe that traditional hotels are on the brink of a resurgence in popularity. Global hotel chains are catching up to modern trends - adding technologized curation and personalisation to their offerings. In Checking Out, Katherine Doggrell interviews key figures in the hotel industry and draws upon various case studies to explore the ways in which this traditionalist industry can remain relevant in the 21st century. The hotel 'experience' has been redefined, as guests now value fast Wi-Fi and mobile check-ins over room service and mini-fridges. Checking Out is an engaging investigation into the unprecedented challenges that face the hotel sector in the digital era and the strategies that are being employed by its leaders and innovators.

Applied Quantitative Analysis for Real Estate (Paperback): Sotiris Tsolacos, Mark Andrew Applied Quantitative Analysis for Real Estate (Paperback)
Sotiris Tsolacos, Mark Andrew
R1,771 Discovery Miles 17 710 Ships in 9 - 15 working days

To fully function in today's global real estate industry, students and professionals increasingly need to understand how to implement essential and cutting-edge quantitative techniques. This book presents an easy-to-read guide to applying quantitative analysis in real estate aimed at non-cognate undergraduate and masters students, and meets the requirements of modern professional practice. Through case studies and examples illustrating applications using data sourced from dedicated real estate information providers and major firms in the industry, the book provides an introduction to the foundations underlying statistical data analysis, common data manipulations and understanding descriptive statistics, before gradually building up to more advanced quantitative analysis, modelling and forecasting of real estate markets. Our examples and case studies within the chapters have been specifically compiled for this book and explicitly designed to help the reader acquire a better understanding of the quantitative methods addressed in each chapter. Our objective is to equip readers with the skills needed to confidently carry out their own quantitative analysis and be able to interpret empirical results from academic work and practitioner studies in the field of real estate and in other asset classes. Both undergraduate and masters level students, as well as real estate analysts in the professions, will find this book to be essential reading.

Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021 Update - Transforming Agriculture in Asia (Paperback): Asian Development Bank Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021 Update - Transforming Agriculture in Asia (Paperback)
Asian Development Bank
R1,123 Discovery Miles 11 230 Ships in 10 - 15 working days

This report forecasts growth in developing Asia of 7.1% in 2021 and 5.4% in 2022 in an uneven recovery caused by divergent growth paths. Its theme chapter explores sustainable agriculture. Growth forecasts are revised up for East Asia and Central Asia from the projections made in April, but down for South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific. This reflects differences in vaccination progress and control of domestic COVID-19 outbreaks but also other factors, including rising commodity prices and depressed tourism. Inflation is expected to remain under control. The main risks to the economic outlook come from the COVID-19 pandemic, including the emergence of new variants, slower-than-expected vaccine rollouts, and waning vaccine effectiveness. Sustainable food production and agricultural systems that are resilient to climate change will be crucial for developing Asia. To transform agriculture in the region, its economies must tackle challenges from changing consumer demand, changing demographics, and a changing and more fragile environment.

The Magic Money Tree and Other Economic Tales (Hardcover): Lorenzo Forni The Magic Money Tree and Other Economic Tales (Hardcover)
Lorenzo Forni
R2,434 Discovery Miles 24 340 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

This lively and provocative look at the tension between economics and politics examines why so many mistakes in economic policy-making are made for political reasons and ignore the economic truths. Using short-term economic gains to ensure electoral success, argues Lorenzo Forni, inevitably spells macroeconomic disaster. Using the state budget, trade policy and monetary policy to prop up labour markets and the wider economy in order to boost voter approval ratings, while ignoring budget constraints can only result in longer recessions and economic downturns. Which then can incur the painful austerity measures needed to bring the economy back into balance. Forni looks at many unsustainable economic policies that have been implemented in parts of the world when the economic realities - there is no magic money tree! - would recommend a different and more prudent economic course.

Gigged - The Gig Economy, the End of the Job and the Future of Work (Paperback): Sarah Kessler Gigged - The Gig Economy, the End of the Job and the Future of Work (Paperback)
Sarah Kessler 1
R240 R192 Discovery Miles 1 920 Save R48 (20%) Ships in 5 - 10 working days

_______ 'Excellent' Martin Wolf, Financial Times Books of the Year 'Essential' Daniel Pink, author of Drive 'Wonderful' Martin Ford, author of The Rise of the Robots _______ Profit. Innovation. Greed. Welcome to the gig economy. Between Uber drivers and Airbnb hosts, freelance jobs are becoming an increasingly prominent part of our economy. Gigged goes inside the Silicon Valley companies leading the way to this emerging 'gig economy'. It tells the stories of the workers - from computer programmers to online comment moderators - who are getting by in a new wave of precarious, short-term employment. And it sketches out what tomorrow's economy might look like: one where the fortunate get to work when they want, how they want, while the rest live lives of extraordinary hardship. It might just be the future of work for all of us. *Longlisted for the FT/McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award* Praise for Gigged 'Well researched and beautifully written . . . Essential reading for anyone who is interested in understanding the future of our economy and society.' Ha-Joon Chang, author of 23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism 'Well crafted . . . a multitude of anecdotes supported by data and extensive reporting.' Forbes 'Kessler's timely book explores the personal, corporate and societal stories behind a massive tech-driven shift away from permanent office-based employment.' Books of the Month, Financial Times 'Kessler illuminates a great divide: For people with desirable skills, the gig economy often permits a more engaging, entrepreneurial lifestyle; but for the unskilled who turn to such work out of necessity, it's merely "the best of bad options".' Harvard Business Review 'Sarah Kessler writes like a dream. If you want to know how work is changing and how you too must change to keep up, you must read this book.' Dan Lyons, author of Disrupted

A Life of Experimental Economics, Volume II - The Next Fifty Years (Paperback, 1st ed. 2018): Vernon L. Smith A Life of Experimental Economics, Volume II - The Next Fifty Years (Paperback, 1st ed. 2018)
Vernon L. Smith
R784 R650 Discovery Miles 6 500 Save R134 (17%) Ships in 10 - 15 working days

This sequel to A Life of Experimental Economics, Volume I, continues the intimate history of Vernon Smith's personal and professional maturation after a dozen years at Purdue. The scene now shifts to twenty-six transformative years at the University of Arizona, then to George Mason University, and his recognition by the Nobel Prize Committee in 2002. The book ends with his most recent decade at Chapman University. At Arizona Vernon and his students studied asset trading markets and learned how wrong it had been to suppose that price bubbles could not occur where markets were full-information transparent. Their work in computerization of the lab facilitated very complex supply and demand experiments in natural gas pipeline, communication and electricity markets that paved the way for implementing, through decentralized market processes, the liberalization of industries traditionally believed to be "natural" monopolies. The "Smart Computer Assisted Market" was born. Smith's move to George Mason University greatly facilitated government and industry work in tandem with various public and private entities, whereas his relocation to Chapman University coincided with the Great Recession, whose similarity with the Depression was evident in his research. There he integrated two fundamental kinds of markets with laboratory experiments: Consumer non-durables, the supply and demand for which was stable in the lab and in the economy, and durable assets whose bubble tendencies made them unstable in the lab as well as in the economy-witness the great housing-mortgage market bubble run-up of 1997-2007. This book's conversational style and emphasis on the backstory of published research accomplishments allows readers an exclusive peak into how and why economists pursue their work. It's a must-read for those interested in experimental economics, the housing crisis, and economic history.

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2022: Europe - War Sets Back the European Recovery (Paperback): Imf, International Monetary... Regional Economic Outlook, April 2022: Europe - War Sets Back the European Recovery (Paperback)
Imf, International Monetary Fund
R570 Discovery Miles 5 700 Ships in 12 - 17 working days
The Reality and the Rhetoric - Organisational Sustainability Reporting (Paperback): Geoff Frost, Stewart Jones, Philip Lee The Reality and the Rhetoric - Organisational Sustainability Reporting (Paperback)
Geoff Frost, Stewart Jones, Philip Lee
R455 Discovery Miles 4 550 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

THE REALITY AND THE RHETORIC examines the gap between the external reporting of four Australian organisations and their internal management practices and systems necessary to support comprehensive and reliable disclosure. The book finds evidence of a significant rift between the external rhetoric of sustainability and the internal management processes and culture. However, the book also finds that the rhetoric can be effective in driving real change internally, as organisations seek to close the gap between the reality and rhetoric of sustainability reporting.

Refractions Of The National, The Popular And The Global In African Cities (Paperback): Simon Bekker, Sylvia Croese, Edgar... Refractions Of The National, The Popular And The Global In African Cities (Paperback)
Simon Bekker, Sylvia Croese, Edgar Pieterse
R250 R195 Discovery Miles 1 950 Save R55 (22%) Ships in 5 - 10 working days

Case studies of metropolitan cities in nine African countries – from Egypt in the north to three in West and Central Africa, two in East Africa and three in Southern Africa – make up the empirical foundation of this publication.

The interrelated themes addressed in these chapters – the national influence on urban development, the popular dynamics that shape urban development and the global currents on urban development – make up its framework. All authors and editors are African, as is the publisher. The only exception is Göran Therborn whose recent book, Cities of Power, served as motivation for this volume. Accordingly, the issue common to all case studies is the often conflictual powers that are exercised by national, global and popular forces in the development of these African cities.

Rather than locating the case studies in an exclusively African historical context, the focus is on the trajectories of the postcolonial city (with the important exception of Addis Ababa with a non-colonial history that has granted it a special place in African consciousness). These trajectories enable comparisons with those of postcolonial cities on other continents. This, in turn, highlights the fact that Africa – today, the least urbanised continent on an increasingly urbanised globe – is in the thick of processes of large-scale urban transformation, illustrated in diverse ways by the case studies that make up the foundation of this publication.

A Fast and Frugal Finance - Bridging Contemporary Behavioral Finance and Ecological Rationality (Paperback): William P. Forbes,... A Fast and Frugal Finance - Bridging Contemporary Behavioral Finance and Ecological Rationality (Paperback)
William P. Forbes, Aloysius Igboekwu, Shabnam Mousavi
R2,119 Discovery Miles 21 190 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

A Fast and Frugal Finance: Bridging Contemporary Behavioural Finance and Ecological Rationality adds psychological reality to classical financial reasoning. It shows how financial professionals can reach better and quicker decisions using the 'fast and frugal' framework for decision-making, adding dramatically to time and outcome efficiency, while also retaining accuracy. The book provides the reader with an adaptive toolbox of heuristic tools and classification systems to aid real-world decisions. Throughout, financial applications are presented alongside real-world examples to help readers solve established problems in finance, including stock buying and selling decisions, when faced with not only risk but fundamental uncertainty. The book concludes by describing potential solutions to financial problems in the forefront of contemporary debates, and calls for taking psychological insights seriously.

International Futures - Building and Using Global Models (Hardcover): Barry B. Hughes International Futures - Building and Using Global Models (Hardcover)
Barry B. Hughes
R2,976 R2,712 Discovery Miles 27 120 Save R264 (9%) Ships in 12 - 17 working days

International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.

Human Frontiers - The Future of Big Ideas in an Age of Small Thinking (Paperback): Michael Bhaskar Human Frontiers - The Future of Big Ideas in an Age of Small Thinking (Paperback)
Michael Bhaskar
R343 R281 Discovery Miles 2 810 Save R62 (18%) Ships in 9 - 15 working days

'A fascinating book . . . Bhaskar is a reassuringly positive and often witty guide' Observer 'A fascinating, must-read book covering a vast array of topics from the arts to the sciences, technology to policy. This is a brilliant and thought-provoking response to one of the most critical questions of our age: how we will come up with the next generation of innovation and truly fresh ideas?' Mustafa Suleyman, cofounder of DeepMind and Google VP 'Have "big ideas" and big social and economic changes disappeared from the scene? Michael Bhaskar's Human Frontiers is the best look at these all-important questions.' Tyler Cowen, author of The Great Stagnation and The Complacent Class 'Michael Bhaskar explores the disturbing possibility that a complacent, cautious civilization has lost ambition and is slowly sinking into technological stagnation rather than accelerating into a magical future. He is calling for bold, adventurous innovators to go big again. A fascinating book' Matt Ridley, author of How Innovation Works Where next for humanity? Is our future one of endless improvement in all areas of life, from technology and travel to medicine, movies and music? Or are our best years behind us? It's easy to assume that the story of modern society is one of consistent, radical progress, but this is no longer true: more academics are researching than ever before but their work leads to fewer breakthroughs; innovation is incremental, limited to the digital sphere; the much-vaunted cure for cancer remains elusive; space travel has stalled since the heady era of the moonshot; politics is stuck in a rut, and the creative industries seem trapped in an ongoing cycle of rehashing genres and classics. The most ambitious ideas now struggle. Our great-great-great grandparents saw a series of transformative ideas revolutionise almost everything in just a few decades. Today, in contrast, short termism, risk aversion, and fractious decision making leaves the landscape timid and unimaginative. In Human Frontiers, Michael Bhaskar draws a vividly entertaining and expansive portrait of humanity's relationship with big ideas. He argues that stasis at the frontier is the result of having already pushed so far, taken easy wins and started to hit limits. But new thinking is still possible. By adopting bold global approaches, deploying cutting edge technology like AI and embracing a culture of change, we can push through and expand afresh. Perfect for anyone who has wondered why we haven't gone further, this book shows in fascinating detail how the 21st century could stall - or be the most revolutionary time in human history.

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