The field of behavioural economics can tell us a great deal about cognitive bias and unconscious decision-making, challenging the orthodox economic model whereby consumers make rational and informed choices. But it is in the arena of health that it perhaps offers individuals and governments the most value. In this important new book, the most pernicious health issues we face today are examined through a behavioral economic lens. It provides an essential and timely overview of how this growing field of study can reframe and offer solutions to some of the biggest health issues of our age. The book opens with an overview of the core theoretical concepts, after which each chapter assesses how behavioral economic research and practice can inform public policy across a range of health issues. Including chapters on tobacco, alcohol and drug use, physical activity, dietary intake, cancer screening and sexual health, the book integrates the key insights from the field to both developed and developing nations. Also asking important ethical questions around paternalism and informed choice, this book will be essential reading for students and researchers across psychology, economics and business and management, as well as public health professionals wishing for a concise overview of the role behavioral economics can potentially play in allowing people to live healthier lives.

The instant New York Times bestseller from legendary investment guru Ric Edelman, who presents a prescient personal finance guide on how technology and science will reshape the way we save, invest, and plan for the future.

In The Truth About Your Future, award-winning financial advisor Ric Edelman reveals how technology and science are evolving at a blistering, almost incomprehensible pace--with profound implications for your personal finances. Ric radically upends traditional financial planning, showing that you need not just one financial plan, but three--one for now, one for later and one for much later. He explains: Why you're likely to live much longer--and the impact on your financial future; how you must alter your plans to shift from the familiar linear lifeline (school-job-retirement-death) to the new cyclical lifeline; the importance of Career Planning--even if you're in your fifties or sixties; how to invest in tech companies and how to generate income from your investments; why nursing homes are becoming obsolete--and with them, long-term care insurance policies, and what this means for you; how to protect your digital assets; and how you'll spend your time--and money--in retirement, and why the future will be the happiest time of your life.

The traditional paradigms of how we live, learn, and invest are shifting under our feet. Fortunately, Ric Edelman has seen the future, and in The Truth About Your Future he illustrates how smart investors can adapt and thrive in today's changing marketplace. Newcomers and loyal Edelman followers alike will find value in his proven advice and trademark humor. This is a must-have guide for anyone serious about successfully adapting to the ever-evolving financial landscape.

Discussing economic theory and English economic history from the eighteenth century until the late 1970s this volume discusses among other things fixed capital and problems with the definition of the premodern economy as well as providing a chronology of 18th century business cycles.

This volume, originally published in 1997, examines the combined effect of financial instability and industrial restructuring on postwar economic growth and recession in the US. It sheds light on the fundamental question of whether or not these trends are positive for the economy as a whole. To explain the cyclical nature of investment and finance, institutional theory regarding financial instability is examined in depth and related to Minsky's analysis of investment behaviour. The author has created an empirical model of this behaviour which, he claims, accurately predicts historical consumption investment and GDP cycles.

'An urgent read ... Karl Popper for the 21st century' Robert Phillips, former CEO, Edelman EMEA and author of Trust me, PR is Dead 'Heffernan is ... a deft storyteller. Uncharted is ... wise and appealingly human' Tim Harford, Financial Times How can we think about the future? What do we need to do - and who do we need to be? In her bold and invigorating new book, distinguished businesswoman and author Margaret Heffernan explores the people and organisations who aren't daunted by uncertainty. We are addicted to prediction, desperate for certainty about the future. But the complexity of modern life won't provide that; experts in forecasting are reluctant to look more than 400 days out. History doesn't repeat itself and even genetics won't tell you everything you want to know. Ineradicable uncertainty is now a fact of life. In complex environments, efficiency is a hazard not a help; being robust is the better, safer option. Drawing on a wide array of people and places, Margaret Heffernan looks at long-term projects developed over generations that could never have been planned the way that they have been run. Experiments, led by individuals and nations, discover new possibilities and options. Radical exercises in forging new futures with wildly diverse participants allow everyone to create outcomes together that none could do alone. Existential crises reveal the vital social component in resilience. Death is certain, but how we approach it impacts the future of those we leave behind. And preparedness - doing everything today that you might need for tomorrow - provides the antidote to passivity and prediction. Ranging freely through history and from business to science, government to friendships, this refreshing book challenges us to resist the false promises of technology and efficiency and instead to mine our own creativity and humanity for the capacity to create the futures we want and can believe in.

This report, first published in 1977, explores several different approaches to the same question; namely, how severe will be the impact on key U.S. macro-economic variables of the transition from main reliance on oil and natural gas to other sources of energy? This book will be of interest to students of economics and environmental studies.

This book provides information on a statistical account and theoretical interpretation of Swedish business cycles since 1918 as well as a survey of the problems of economic policy, as revealed both in practice and in theoretical discussion, during the inter-war and post-war periods.

Energy price rises have been amongst the biggest change that has taken place in our society over the last few decades. Their impact, particularly when this book was first published in 1983, had a growing importance in social policy, practice and research, and fuel was, and still is, a major public issue. This collection of essays describes how any why domestic fuel prices have been rising faster than other prices and incomes, what impacts this has on domestic budgets, and the extent of 'fuel poverty'. The resulting problems of debts, disconnections, cold conditions and hypothermia are discussed by specialists in these fields. This book is ideal for students of economics and social policy.

This book, first published in 1992, examines the subject of foreign exchange market efficiency and, in particular, the effectiveness of central bank intervention in the market. This book is ideal for students of economics.

At the time in which this book was first published in 1987, mass unemployment had emerged as the dominant, most visible, problem of the West European economies. In this challenging discussion of ways to overcome unemployment Ciaran Driver stresses the importance of managed restructuring. This book is ideal for students of business and economics.

The collection of chapters in Volume 43 Part B of Advances in Econometrics serves as a tribute to Professor M. Hashem Pesaran. Hashem is one of the most innovative, influential, and productive econometricians of his generation, with over 200 papers published in leading scientific journals to his credit along with highly influential books on both theoretical and applied topics, significantly pushing forward the frontiers of knowledge in econometrics and economics. Thanks to his profound and pioneering work on theoretical and empirical questions, the economics profession has gained a much better understanding of both the power and limitations of econometric analysis. Reflecting the diversity of Hashem's many contributions, this volume includes chapters on a wide variety of topics, including panel modelling, micro applications, and econometric methodology. The long list of topics includes studies analysing multiple treatment effects in panels, heterogeneity and aggregation, an exploration of the Orthogonal to Backwards Means (OBM) estimator, and an examination of potential reasons for anaemic productivity growth in Italy using recent dynamic heterogeneous panel data methods developed by Hashem Pesaran and his co-authors.

Best-selling books such as Freakonomics and The Undercover Economist have paved the way for the flourishing economics-made-fun genre. While books like these present economics as a strong and explanatory science, the ongoing economic crisis has exposed the shortcomings of economics to the general public. In the face of this crisis, many people, including well-known economists such as Paul Krugman, have started to express their doubts about whether economics is a success as a science. As well as academic papers, newspaper columns with a large audience have discussed the failure of economic to predict and explain ongoing trends. The emerging picture is somewhat confusing: economics-made-fun books present economics as a method of thinking that can successfully explain everyday and "freaky" phenomena. On the other hand, however, economics seems to fail in addressing and explaining the most pressing matters related to the field of economics itself. This book explores the confusion created by this contradictory picture of economics. Could a science that cannot answer its own core questions really be used to explain the logic of everyday life? This book was originally published as a special issue of the Journal of Economic Methodology.

The collection in Volume 43 Part A of Advances in Econometrics serves as a tribute to Professor M. Hashem Pesaran. Hashem is one of the most innovative, influential, and productive econometricians of his generation, with over 200 papers published in leading scientific journals to his credit along with highly influential books on both theoretical and applied topics, significantly pushing forward the frontiers of knowledge in econometrics and economics. Thanks to his profound and pioneering work on theoretical and empirical questions, the economics profession has gained a much better understanding of both the power and limitations of econometric analysis. Consistent with Hashem's contributions, this volume comprises of chapters on a variety of topics covering prediction and macroeconomic modelling. The list of topics includes studies on Bayesian Quantile regression methods, forecasting implications from the economic impact of global warming, assessment of DSGE models, and parameter estimation in the presence of multiple breaks.

This report, first published in 1977, explores several different approaches to the same question; namely, how severe will be the impact on key U.S. macro-economic variables of the transition from main reliance on oil and natural gas to other sources of energy? This book will be of interest to students of economics and environmental studies.

Originally published between 1925 and 1997 the volumes in this set: Discuss the Impacts of Profitability, Business Cycles and the Capital Stock on Productivity; Evaluate various approaches to managing the uncertainty inherent in the future course of the interest rate cycle; Examine the combined effect of financial instability and industrial restructuring on postwar economic growth and recession in the US; Determine what statistical and other information is needed to formulate both the objects and the means of government economic policy; Ask what theoretical tools should be used in order to clarify the issues of economic policy; Examine the sociological aspects of the business cycle.

Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.

For junior/senior undergraduates in a variety of fields such as economics, business administration, applied mathematics and statistics, and for graduate students in quantitative masters programs such as MBA and MA/MS in economics. A student-friendly approach to understanding forecasting. Knowledge of forecasting methods is among the most demanded qualifications for professional economists, and business people working in either the private or public sectors of the economy. The general aim of this textbook is to carefully develop sophisticated professionals, who are able to critically analyze time series data and forecasting reports because they have experienced the merits and shortcomings of forecasting practice.

How can we effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the 'wisdom of the crowd'? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies in providing, for example, improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services. The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza outbreaks to the spread of other infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like surveys, group deliberations, and expert opinion. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes. This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should appeal to all those with an interest in economics, forecasting or public policy, and in particular those with an interest in the study of money, investment and risk.

This title, first published in 1979, presents the Ph.D. thesis of the world-renowned economist and financial expert, Willem Buiter. In Part I, three alternative specifications of temporary equilibria in asset markets, including their implications for macroeconomic models, are discussed; Part II examines the long-term implications of some short-term macroeconomic models. The analysis of the theoretical foundations of 'direct crowding out' and 'indirect crowding out' is particularly prominent, with the result that a synthesis of short-term macroeconomic analysis and long-term growth theory is formulated. The traditional tools of comparative dynamics and stability analysis are employed frequently. However, it is also argued that the true scope of government policy can only be adequately evaluated with the aid of concepts such as dynamic and static controllability. Temporary Equilibrium and Long-Run Equilibrium is a valuable study, and relevant for all serious students of modern economic theory.

Computational intelligence, a sub-branch of artificial intelligence, is a field which draws on the natural world and adaptive mechanisms in order to study behaviour in changing complex environments. This book provides an interdisciplinary view of current technological advances and challenges concerning the application of computational intelligence techniques to financial time-series forecasting, trading and investment. The book is divided into five parts. The first part introduces the most important computational intelligence and financial trading concepts, while also presenting the most important methodologies from these different domains. The second part is devoted to the application of traditional computational intelligence techniques to the fields of financial forecasting and trading, and the third part explores the applications of artificial neural networks in these domains. The fourth part delves into novel evolutionary-based hybrid methodologies for trading and portfolio management, while the fifth part presents the applications of advanced computational intelligence modelling techniques in financial forecasting and trading. This volume will be useful for graduate and postgraduate students of finance, computational finance, financial engineering and computer science. Practitioners, traders and financial analysts will also benefit from this book.

In the decades after the Civil War, the world experienced monumental changes in industry, trade, and governance. As Americans faced this uncertain future, public debate sprang up over the accuracy and value of predictions, asking whether it was possible to look into the future with any degree of certainty. In Looking Forward, Jamie L. Pietruska uncovers a culture of prediction in the modern era, where forecasts became commonplace as crop forecasters, "weather prophets," business forecasters, utopian novelists, and fortune-tellers produced and sold their visions of the future. Private and government forecasters competed for authority as well as for an audience and a single prediction could make or break a forecaster's reputation. Pietruska argues that this late nineteenth-century quest for future certainty had an especially ironic consequence: it led Americans to accept uncertainty as an inescapable part of both forecasting and twentieth-century economic and cultural life. Drawing together histories of science, technology, capitalism, environment, and culture, Looking Forward explores how forecasts functioned as new forms of knowledge and risk management tools that sometimes mitigated, but at other times exacerbated, the very uncertainties they were designed to conquer. Ultimately Pietruska shows how Americans came to understand the future itself as predictable, yet still uncertain.

First published in 1972, this book provides an important critical review on the theory of futures trading. B. A. Goss looks at the work and ideas of Keynes and Hicks on futures, and considers how these have also been developed by Kaldor. He discusses the evolution of the concept of hedging in the context of buying forward into the markets, and considers theories of market and individual equilibrium. Goss draws on the work of other economists in this field, including Stein, Telser, Peston and L. L. Johnson, in order to illustrate the development of theory in futures trading. The book includes fifteen figures that illustrate diagrammatically the concepts involved, and the concluding section contains a series of problems for examination by the student.

First published in 1986, this book discusses many important aspects of the theory and practice of Futures Markets. It describes how they, at the time, grew to be an increasingly important feature of the world's major financial centres. Indeed, they adopted the role of being efficient forward pricing mechanisms and this was reflected by the interest of economists in the study of risk, uncertainty and information. Here, the contributors focus on areas that were of concern in the late 1980s such as feasibility, forward pricing and returns, and the modelling of price determination in Futures Markets. Evidence is drawn from twenty-five different commodities representing all the major commodity groups; and from all the world's major centres of Futures Trading.

Modern evolutionary economics is now nearly two decades old and in this excellent book, a distinguished group of evolutionary economists identify the most important developments and discuss the direction of future research. By moving away from traditional concerns with the operation of selection mechanisms towards a preoccupation with the manner in which the novelty and variety provide fuel for such mechanisms, the authors identify a key development in the field. Evolutionary economists have been drawn into the modern complexity science literature which attempts to provide an understanding of how and why 'complex adaptive systems' engage in processes of self-organization. The goal is to provide an integrated analysis of both selection and self-organization that is uniquely economic in orientation. After a brief overview of the many key achievements and continuing challenges, the first part of the book deals with theoretical perspectives, discussing institutional change, social constructions, complexity, selection and self-selection and the usefulness of theory. Part two deals with empirical perspectives and includes discussion of replicator dynamics, the measurement of heterogeneity and complexity, and modelling organizations as complex adaptive systems. This unique book will appeal to evolutionary and industrial economists and policymakers involved with issues of innovation and management scientists.

The growth of manufacturing industries can be a key factor in helping to mitigate global recession. Productivity Growth in the Manufacturing Sector highlights key issues and possible remedies facing the manufacturing sector in range of international contexts. Focusing on specific manufacturing sectors in emerging and developing economies, chapters examine themes including developing economies amidst changing world trade dynamics, and the role of smart, circular and competitive manufacturing practices in enhancing economic resilience, as well as presenting sector specific analysis, including the metal manufacturing industry, food & beverage industry, and the small-scale manufacturing sector. Showcasing different demonstrative methods that can be adopted to grow manufacturing sectors in different contexts, Productivity Growth in the Manufacturing Sector is an important tool for economists and policy makers to understand the complexity and realities of these economies, using recent data and methodology.