In this volume, economists discuss the long-run consequences of aging societies. Using theoretical economic models, long-term projections and simulations, and econometric analysis, answers to the following questions are given: What are the economic consequences for consumption patterns, the supply of labor, capital accumulation, productivity, and the international flow of capital? Where are the political consequences for pension systems, health care and immigration policy? And what changes in politics are needed to handle the issues of populations that age markedly?

This collection of 22 commissioned essays from scholars across numerous fields responded to the question: What are the most fundamental things you can say concerning the interrelations between the institutions of government and property? Contributing authors were asked to address this question in a positive analysis and that their essay penetrate to the deepest (most fundamental) levels of property-government organization. Their contributions are illuminating.

"A technical tour de force, destined to become the thinking bull's bible."-Kathryn Welling, Barron's
Renowned for her analytical brilliance and extraordinary forecasting ability, LOUISE YAMADA examines the forces that will shape the markets for the next ten years
"Few on Wall Street can match Louise Yamada for analytical ability as well as insight on the big issues affecting investors. We are fortunate she is willing to share the results of her thoughts and research with us."-Mark Haines, CNBC
"Louise Yamada has a special talent for anticipating future financial trends. Market Magic is a must read for investors as we prepare for the exciting decade ahead."-David Cork, F.C.S.I. author of The Pig and the Python: How to Prosper from the Aging Baby Boom
"Market Magic demystifies the voodoo of technical analysis and relates technical indicators to the real world of stocks and bonds and demographic and economic trends worldwide."-Oscar S. Schafer, General Partner
Cumberland Associates; Member, Barron's Roundtable
For updates on new and bestselling Wiley Finance titles: wiley.com/wbns

Modern evolutionary economics is now nearly two decades old and in this excellent book, a distinguished group of evolutionary economists identify the most important developments and discuss the direction of future research. By moving away from traditional concerns with the operation of selection mechanisms towards a preoccupation with the manner in which the novelty and variety provide fuel for such mechanisms, the authors identify a key development in the field. Evolutionary economists have been drawn into the modern complexity science literature which attempts to provide an understanding of how and why 'complex adaptive systems' engage in processes of self-organization. The goal is to provide an integrated analysis of both selection and self-organization that is uniquely economic in orientation. After a brief overview of the many key achievements and continuing challenges, the first part of the book deals with theoretical perspectives, discussing institutional change, social constructions, complexity, selection and self-selection and the usefulness of theory. Part two deals with empirical perspectives and includes discussion of replicator dynamics, the measurement of heterogeneity and complexity, and modelling organizations as complex adaptive systems. This unique book will appeal to evolutionary and industrial economists and policymakers involved with issues of innovation and management scientists.

The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe.

It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. 'Good enough' forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future.

Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, "Future Ready" leads the reader to answers to questions such as: What makes a good forecast?What period should a forecast cover?How frequently should it be updated?What information should it contain?What is the best way to produce a forecast?How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation?How should a forecast be used?How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable?How accurate does it need to be?How should you deal with risk and uncertaintyWhat is the best way to organize a forecast process?Do you need multiple forecasts?What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting?

"Future Ready" is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management.

Praise for "Future Ready"

"Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward"
--Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC

"Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one"
--Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro

"A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement."
--Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including "Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis," "Introduction to Management Accounting," and "Financial Accounting"

"In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market."
--Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group

The future is an uncertain, uncomfortable prospect for employees, employers and society at large. A flurry of unprecedented events have proven that, despite what some politicians and economists may tell us, the future is not set in stone. Instead, it is constantly being shaped and redefined by the everyday decisions of individuals and organizations.

In light of this uncertainty, The Future Starts Now looks toward the various innovations and technologies that may shape our future. Authors Theo Priestley and Bronwyn Williams have brought together the world's leading futurists to articulate and clarify the current trajectories in technology, economics, politics and business.

This is a comprehensive history of tomorrow, exploring groundbreaking topics such as AI, privacy, education and the future of work. While the guidance, insight and predictions are fascinating for anyone curious about what the future may hold, the book also functions as an invaluable guide for business professionals looking to steer their career or their organization with foresight and confidence.

The forecasting of financial markets has engaged the attention of market professionals and academic economists and statisticians for many years, and has also attracted the interest of numerous 'amateur' investors. This book brings together key papers in this wide field. After considering some of the earliest attempts at forecasting, it provides an insight into the theoretical underpinnings of the subject, investigates the random walk model, and examines various financial markets, volatility and density forecasting, the forecasting of extreme events, trading rules, technical analysis and high frequency data.

A book on practical business forecasting belongs in the library of everyone interested in business. Forecasting is extremely important to finance and accounting executives, business economists and managers at all levels.
Strategic Business Forecasting: The Complete Guide to Forecasting Real World Company Performance provides you with a working knowledge of the fundamentals of business forecasting that can be applied in the real world regardless of the size of the firm. The author explains the basic forecasting methodology and the practical applications. All aspects of business are discussed, making this a comprehensive and valuable reference.
The author avoids theoretical and mathematical discussions to gets right into how, when , and why to use this book. Many practical examples, applications, illustrations, guidelines, measures, checklists, rules of thumb, tips, graphs, diagrams and tables aid your comprehension of the subject. The author displays and explains printouts obtained using many popular spreadsheet programs and software packages.
The book goes far beyond just sales forecasting, encompassing a wide range of topics of major importance to practical business managers and finance professionals, including cash flow forecasting, cost prediction, earnings forecasts, bankruptcy prediction, foreign exchange forecasting, and interest rate forecasting. Written in an easy-to-read style, it is practical, current, and intriguing - a reference book to use throughout your business career.

Drawing on interviews with the UK government's Panel of Independent Forecasters, the author shows how economic models, forecasts and policy analysis depend crucially upon the judgements of economists.

Can we abolish global poverty? Should we do away with foreign aid? Is the United Nations redundant? Why should I bother? Can I help?Mike Edwards offers timely answers to issues that have been propelled to center stage. "Future Positive" is a comprehensive and authoritative rethink of an international system facing a period of unprecedented change. In a world of globalizing markets, eroding state sovereignty, expanding citizen action and uncertainty about fundamental truths, what is the best way to tackle problems of global poverty and violence?Michael Edwards charts a "third way" between heavy-handed intervention and complete laissez-faire. Covering an enormous amount of ground in clear, lively and non-technical terms, "Future Positive" explains how the international system operates, the pressures it faces, and the changes it must undergo, and offers concrete new ideas to re-frame international relations and foreign aid.

This book offers an in-depth analysis of the current state of the African economy and makes constructive suggestions about its future direction. The contributors argue that despite enduring challenges such as food security and employment creation, Africa faces a brighter future in sustainable growth provided that governance and policy- making are effectively employed to maintain peace, achieve greater regional collaboration and encourage private sector competitiveness.

eBook available with sample pages: 0203022939

The "Regional Handbooks of Economic Development" series provides accessible overviews of countries within their larger domestic and international contexts, focusing on the relations among regions as they meet the challenges of the twenty first century.
The series allows the non-specialist student to explore a wide range of complex factors-social and political as well as economic-that affect the growth of developing regions in Asia, Europe, and South America. Each "Handbook" provides an overview chapter discussing the region's economic conditions within an historical and political context, as well as 20 or more chapter-length essays written by recognized experts, which analyze the key issues affecting a region's economy: its population, natural resources, foreign trade, labor problems, and economic inequalities, and other vital factors.
In addition, the volumes offer useful support materials, including a series of appendices that include a detailed chronology of events in the region, a glossary of terms, biographical entries on key personalities, an annotated bibliography of further reading, and a comprehensive analytical index.

This title was first published in 2000: Sustainable development offers visions of the future, but implementation of new sustainable policies seems slow. This text presents a forecasting method directed to overcome some barriers to the implementation of more sustainable economic policy. Using a case study, the authors describe how economic and environmental forecasts can be developed that are relevant to the immediate concerns of policy-makers and are more likely to lead to policy changes. A combination of forecasting methods are shown to evaluate a range of current alternatives in the future. Similar techniques have been used in developing countries, but here the techniques are applied to an already industrialized economy.

This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently - at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly - depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.

This survey uses up-to-date methodological apparatus including sophisticated computer modelling techniques to identify the key political, social and economic trends which are likely to shape the East Asian region at the millennium and beyond. An international team of experts address a range of critical areas including the following: strategy and the role of the west; east Asia and the information society; Japan at the turning point and the "return to Asia"; North and South Korea - unification and brinkmanship; China - power and greater China; and ASEAN and development.

In this book, Nagesh Kumar and expert contributors examine and explain the emerging patterns in international technology transfers and foreign direct investment flows (FDIs) over the past two decades. They analyse the trends in internationalization of corporate activity in individual source countries, discussing outflows from both major and emerging source countries. This departs from the existing treatments of FDI as homogenous resource and allows for a more detailed prediction of future outflow patterns. Throughout, the research focuses upon the implications of new trends for developing countries. Kumar concludes by outlining the policy implications for the governments of such countries seeking to mobilize technology and FDI for their industrialization and further integration into the international community. Controversially, he cautions against excessive optimism about the potential of FDI inflows as an agent of development. This book draws together much data and information which is not readily available and provides reflections upon international business negotiations from a developing country's perspective.

Praise for Wide Angle Vision "In this book, Wayne Burkan shows us that the vantage points from which we view and act can earn us critical advantages if we are willing to stretch our thoughts and practices beyond the edge of conventional thinking." - Robert W. Galvin Chairman of the Executive Committee and former CEO of Motorola "Wayne Burkan's Wide-Angle Vision is a very pragmatic and useful guide to dealing with and implementing change. His concept of 'edge' as it relates to customers, employees, and competitors should help many organizations struggling with the rapidly changing marketplace and the endless panaceas being promoted." - David R. Stamper Vice President and General Manager, Hitachi Data Systems, Latin American Division "At Southwest Airlines, we redefined air transportation by utilizing 'edge thinking.' Wayne Burkan is offering a 'flight plan' that if studied, understood, and followed, will improve your bottom line for the long term. If you really want to be on the 'leading edge' for your product or service, this is the place to begin." - Howard Putnam Speaker, author, and former CEO of Southwest Airlines "Wayne Burkan has brought our attention to a great source of potential opportunities for profitable growth if we take his advice and really listen to those challenging customers, potential customers, small competitors, and unhappy employees whom we often want to dismiss as difficult." - D. H. Davis President and Chief Operating Officer, Rockwell International Corporation "Strategically thought-provoking! It's just what busy leaders need to ensure they are focused on gaining a competitive edge. An easy-to-read wake up call for organizations and managers. Wayne Burkan challenges us to confront the perils of tunnel vision and the promise of a wider perspective. So simple, so clear, so right!" - Donald Himelfarb President, Thrifty Rent-A-Car System, Inc. Conventional business wisdom says to get close to your best customers, watch your biggest competitors, and reward your model employees. This controversial book offers a contrarian viewpoint and introduces a dynamic new way to compete-by broadening your focus beyond mainstream thinking to spot the critical opportunities at the edge of your core business. Wide-Angle Vision opens your eyes to the "edge," from "little guy" competitors preparing to take over the market to disgruntled customers and maverick employees whose complaints can lead to great ideas for change. Listening to complaining employees pays off. That's where the idea for Java(r) , Sun Microsystems' successful Internet programming system, came from. With Wide-Angle Vision, now you can learn how to use "edge" groups to sharpen your competitiveness by reducing surprise, increasing innovation, and satisfying customers. Filled with compelling examples from a range of industries and drawing on Wayne Burkan's extensive consulting experience with IBM, Ford, and others, Wide-Angle Vision equips you with specific action techniques that can enable you to: Anticipate crises before they occur by using "splatter vision," scenarios, and benchmarking Find breakthrough solutions to difficult problems by looking outside your field Create powerful, flexible teams that work-from "edge" teams to ideal teams Reduce resistance to organizational change through skillful timing, finding perfect change agents, and more Reengineer with lower risk and greater efficiency, using an effective seven-step plan for change Avoid tunnel vision by broadening your perspective-to the edges of what's happening in the mainstream In today's rapidly changing marketplace, opportunities are all around you. Wide-Angle Vision gives you the power to look them in the eye and develop the daring skills you need to be a leading-and lasting-"edge" competitor.

This survey uses up-to-date methodological apparatus including sophisticated computer modelling techniques to identify the key political, social and economic trends which are likely to shape the East Asian region at the millennium and beyond. An international team of experts address a range of critical areas including the following: strategy and the role of the west; east Asia and the information society; Japan at the turning point and the "return to Asia"; North and South Korea - unification and brinkmanship; China - power and greater China; and ASEAN and development.

The importance of house prices to households, real estate developers, banks and policy-makers cannot be overemphasised. House price changes affect consumer spending and business investment patterns, which in turn affect the wider macro economy and the entire business cycle. Measuring and understanding house prices is therefore essential to a functioning economy, but researchers continue to disagree on the best methodological approach for constructing real estate indices. This book argues the need for more accurate house price indices, outlines the various methods used to construct indices and discusses the existing house price indices around the globe. It shows how the raw data of property transactions can be prepared for the purpose of constructing indices, discusses various applications of property price indices and empirically demonstrates how the index numbers can be used to model the supply of new houses and to estimate the price elasticity of supply. Essential reading for economists, real estate professionals and researchers, and policy-makers.

A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. * Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting * Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis * Combines forecasts to improve accuracy * Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes.

This work presents a predicted summary of major economic challenges facing the United States in the last years of the 20th century. Intended to shape the platforms of the major parties and the general public, it contains proposals by leading specialists aimed at resolving such challenges.

Ageing populations are a major consideration for socio-economic development in the early twenty-first century. This demographic change is mainly seen as a threat rather than as an opportunity to improve the quality of human life, especially in Europe, where ageing has resulted in a reduction in economic competitiveness. Economic Foundations for Creative Ageing Policy mixes the silver economy, the creative economy, and the social economy to construct positive solutions for an ageing population. Klimczuk covers theoretical analyses and case study descriptions of good practices to suggest strategies that could be internationally popularized.

This work presents a predicted summary of major economic challenges facing the United States in the last years of the 20th century. Intended to shape the platforms of the major parties and the general public, it contains proposals by leading specialists aimed at resolving such challenges.

The geography of services is no longer of local or national significance: it now embraces the international stage. Service industries have enabled, and themselves become participants in, world trade. Although this is not a new role, during the 1980s they have become a much more active ingredient in the process of social and economic change.

New and diversified service products have generated increased consumption, ranging from tourism and leisure, to sophisticated innovations in ways of making finance capital available for corporate growth or production strategies. But there are spatial variations between the world's nations, regions and cities that ensure a highly uneven ability to supply services, and to generate demand. There are contrasts between the developed, less-developed, and post-socialist economies of Eastern Europe, for example, and between major metropolitan areas around the globe in the extent to which they experience the positive (as well as negative) effects of the internationalization of the service economy.

This book examines some explanations for the expanding role of services in the world economy. It is suggested that the resulting patterns are particularly significant for the form and function of the global urban system. The book concludes by reflecting on the future role of services in the world economy: can the trends evident for the 1980s be assumed to shape the evolving geography of services during the 1990s and beyond?

First published in 1980, this compact and useful book uses the earliest volumes of government-published statistics, and with the aid of computer-generated cartography, transforms the numbers there reported into an arrondissement-by-arrondissement comparative picture of French agriculture in the mid-1830s. Clout reviews problems of rapid population growth, scarcely adequate domestic food supplies and primitive systems of transportation, while attention is drawn to spatial variations in agricultural activity and productivity. Commercial, high-yielding farming was best developed in a northern multi-nuclear region, comprising of Ile-de-France, Normandy and Nord, with smaller foci of commercial orientation along an eastern axis from Alsace to Marseilles and in western areas from the Loire to the middle of the Garonne valley. Clout concludes that the revolutionary promise of national economic unity was far from being realised in the 1830s and was not to be achieved until national systems of transport and education were firmly established later in the nineteenth century.