Modern evolutionary economics is now nearly two decades old and in this excellent book, a distinguished group of evolutionary economists identify the most important developments and discuss the direction of future research. By moving away from traditional concerns with the operation of selection mechanisms towards a preoccupation with the manner in which the novelty and variety provide fuel for such mechanisms, the authors identify a key development in the field. Evolutionary economists have been drawn into the modern complexity science literature which attempts to provide an understanding of how and why 'complex adaptive systems' engage in processes of self-organization. The goal is to provide an integrated analysis of both selection and self-organization that is uniquely economic in orientation. After a brief overview of the many key achievements and continuing challenges, the first part of the book deals with theoretical perspectives, discussing institutional change, social constructions, complexity, selection and self-selection and the usefulness of theory. Part two deals with empirical perspectives and includes discussion of replicator dynamics, the measurement of heterogeneity and complexity, and modelling organizations as complex adaptive systems. This unique book will appeal to evolutionary and industrial economists and policymakers involved with issues of innovation and management scientists.

First published in 1986, this book discusses many important aspects of the theory and practice of Futures Markets. It describes how they, at the time, grew to be an increasingly important feature of the world's major financial centres. Indeed, they adopted the role of being efficient forward pricing mechanisms and this was reflected by the interest of economists in the study of risk, uncertainty and information. Here, the contributors focus on areas that were of concern in the late 1980s such as feasibility, forward pricing and returns, and the modelling of price determination in Futures Markets. Evidence is drawn from twenty-five different commodities representing all the major commodity groups; and from all the world's major centres of Futures Trading.

First published in 1972, this book provides an important critical review on the theory of futures trading. B. A. Goss looks at the work and ideas of Keynes and Hicks on futures, and considers how these have also been developed by Kaldor. He discusses the evolution of the concept of hedging in the context of buying forward into the markets, and considers theories of market and individual equilibrium. Goss draws on the work of other economists in this field, including Stein, Telser, Peston and L. L. Johnson, in order to illustrate the development of theory in futures trading. The book includes fifteen figures that illustrate diagrammatically the concepts involved, and the concluding section contains a series of problems for examination by the student.

Economic Time Series: Modeling and Seasonality is a focused resource on analysis of economic time series as pertains to modeling and seasonality, presenting cutting-edge research that would otherwise be scattered throughout diverse peer-reviewed journals. This compilation of 21 chapters showcases the cross-fertilization between the fields of time series modeling and seasonal adjustment, as is reflected both in the contents of the chapters and in their authorship, with contributors coming from academia and government statistical agencies. For easier perusal and absorption, the contents have been grouped into seven topical sections: Section I deals with periodic modeling of time series, introducing, applying, and comparing various seasonally periodic models Section II examines the estimation of time series components when models for series are misspecified in some sense, and the broader implications this has for seasonal adjustment and business cycle estimation Section III examines the quantification of error in X-11 seasonal adjustments, with comparisons to error in model-based seasonal adjustments Section IV discusses some practical problems that arise in seasonal adjustment: developing asymmetric trend-cycle filters, dealing with both temporal and contemporaneous benchmark constraints, detecting trading-day effects in monthly and quarterly time series, and using diagnostics in conjunction with model-based seasonal adjustment Section V explores outlier detection and the modeling of time series containing extreme values, developing new procedures and extending previous work Section VI examines some alternative models and inference procedures for analysis of seasonal economic time series Section VII deals with aspects of modeling, estimation, and forecasting for nonseasonal economic time series By presenting new methodological developments as well as pertinent empirical analyses and reviews of established methods, the book provides much that is stimulating and practically useful for the serious researcher and analyst of economic time series.

The first book for a popular audience on the transformative, democratising technology of 'DeFi'.

After over a decade of Bitcoin, which has now moved beyond lore and hype into an increasingly robust star in the firmament of global assets, a new and more important question has arisen. What happens beyond Bitcoin? The answer is decentralised finance - 'DeFi'.

Tech and finance experts Steven Boykey Sidley and Simon Dingle argue that DeFi - which enables all manner of financial transactions to take place directly, person to person, without the involvement of financial institutions - will redesign the cogs and wheels in the engines of trust, and make the remarkable rise of Bitcoin look quaint by comparison. It will disrupt and displace fine and respectable companies, if not entire industries.

Sidley and Dingle explain how DeFi works, introduce the organisations and individuals that comprise the new industry, and identify the likely winners and losers in the coming revolution.

The definitive guide to technical analysis . . . written from a trader's perspective

With the keen insight and perspective that have made him a market legend, Jack D. Schwager explores, explains, and examines the application of technical analysis in futures trading. In the most in-depth, comprehensive book available, the bestselling investment writer demonstrates why he is one of today's foremost authorities. Here is the one volume no trader should be without.

"Jack Schwager has accomplished the rarest of feats in this book. He has presented material in a way that both the professional and layman can profit from. It is a must read for traders on all levels." — Stanley Druckenmillern Managing Director, Soros Fund Management

"Jack Schwager's Technical Analysis is exactly what one should expect from this expert on futures. The book is comprehensive, thoroughly insightful, and highly educational. I recommend it to the beginner as well as the expert." — Leo Melamed Chairman, Sakura Dellsher, Inc.

"Jack Schwager possesses a remarkable ability to extract the important elements of complex, market-timing approaches, and distill that into something intelligible and useful. Not only is he able to present these ideas cleverly in an easily understood format, but he also demonstrates their application to the markets with clarity and precision." — Thomas R. DeMark Author, The New Science of Technical Analysis

"Jack Schwager's book, A Complete Guide to the Futures Markets, was one of the best books I have read on futures trading. We give a copy of it to all our new analysts. Jack's latest work, Technical Analysis, looks like a gold mine of information, adding significantly to the existing investment literature." — Monroe Trout President, Trout Trading Management Co.

Jack Schwager is one of the most important and visible figures in the futures industry today. His Market Wizards and The New Market Wizards are two of the bestselling finance titles of all time. Now, in the latest volume in the Schwager on Futures series, Technical Analysis, Schwager has created the most comprehensive guide ever for using technical analysis for futures trading. What makes Technical Analysis unique, besides its in-depth coverage, is that it is written from a trader's perspective. Schwager doesn't merely cover the subject, he explores what works and doesn't work in the real world of trading.

Contains a comprehensive guide to chart analysis written with a particular focus on trading applications

• Includes a separate 200+ page section illustrating the use of chart analysis in the real world
• Details and illustrates several original trading systems
• Includes a self-contained primer on cyclical analysis
• Describes popular oscillators, the pitfalls in their common use, and guidelines to their successful application in trading
• Explains the concept and use of "continuous futures" and compares 10-year continuous futures charts with conventional nearest futures charts for all major U.S. futures markets
• Contains a section on trading strategy and philosophy, including over 100 trading tips

Hundreds of charts, tables, and examples illustrate key points throughout, while the text is written in the informative, insightful, and nontechnical style that has made Jack Schwager one of the most highly regarded and bestselling investment authors ever. This invaluable book by one of the world's foremost authorities is destined to become the premier industry guide on technical analysis for many years to come.

In Schwager on Futures: Technical Analysis, legendary market analyst Jack D. Schwager examines technical analysis in-depth, exploring what works and doesn't work in the real world of trading. Now, in the Study Guide to Accompany Technical Analysis, Thomas Bierovic, a highly renowned instructor, joined by Steven Turner and Jack Schwager, offers a class in the technical material presented in Technical Analysis.

The Study Guide is clearly organized parallel with Technical Analysis. Chapter by chapter, it provides questions and problems that help you practice applying the principles in the book, plus brief chapter summaries to reinforce major points. Answers are in the back, so you can check your work.

What better way to test your knowledge than by running through a series of questions and problems? Trading system development is enhanced once you are certain you understand the underlying indicators. Working through the Study Guide lets you test your aptitude before using the indicators to trade real-time. With the Study Guide, Technical Analysis will be an even more valuable trading companion and reference.

In recent years politics has seen an increasing role in economic policymaking for a technocracy of experts. How do politicians feel about this and how do they balance their political and ethical aims with economic expertise? Anna Killick offers an in-depth study of how politicians engage with economists and economic opinion. Based on interviews with politicians from the main parties in France, Germany, Denmark, the UK and USA, the book highlights the role economic opinion plays in politics and the tension that can arise between democracy and technocracy. Deferring to the experts is shown to be neither viable nor desirable, and that we should trust politicians to take the lead role in solving economic problems.

Wall Street Journal Best Seller Finalist: The AMA Leonard L. Berry Book Prize Winner: The Eric Hoffer Book Award (Business) Winner: INDIE Gold Medal Book Award (Business) How are a men's grooming brand and frustrated "stuck-at-work" dads leading a revolution in masculinity post #MeToo? What can the decline of a global lingerie brand and corporate hackathons teach us about how fear can stifle innovation? How does hiring "neuro-diverse" workers and creating empathetic shampoo bottles signal a dramatic shift toward compassion in the workplace? For the past 9 years, marketing expert and Georgetown University Professor Rohit Bhargava has curated his best-selling list of non-obvious trends by asking the questions that most trend predictors miss. In this all-new ninth edition, discover what more than a million readers already have: how to use the power of non-obvious thinking to grow your business and make a bigger impact in the world. In total, the Non-Obvious 2019 edition features 15 all-new trends across 5 categories including Culture; Consumer Behavior, Marketing; Social Media, Media & Education, Technology; Design plus Economics; Entrepreneurship. The book also features a detailed section with a review and rating for more than 115 previously predicted trends, with longevity ratings for each. As with the original version, this new edition of Non-Obvious also delves into the curation process the author has used for years to build his Trend Reports and takes readers behind the scenes of trend curation (much to the delight of past readers who have been asking about this for years), and show them the methodology they can use to predict the future for themselves.

Japan will recover and its economic achievements will once again earn the world's admiration, with sustained annual growth of three percent, perhaps more, well within reach. This is the confident forecast that begins Japanese Phoenix: The Long Road to Economic Revival by the author of Japan: The System That Soured, which several years ago accurately predicted Japan's current travails at a time when others were prematurely pronouncing full recovery. Katz warns however that there is bad news to go with the good. So deep-seated are Japan's dysfunctions that, even if it did everything right today, it would take at least five years for truly vibrant growth to take hold. But Japan will not do everything right. Opposition to reform is deep-seated and a myriad of vested interests and millions of jobs are at stake. Still he notes, there is little doubt that reform will succeed. Japanese Phoenix tells the story of the struggle between the forces of reform and the forces of resistance. It dissects Prime Minister Koizumi's role in the process, and explains why Japan is in so much trouble and what needs to be done. It explore the debates among economists and gives a careful progress report on all the moves made so far in the name of reform - from greater direct foreign investment, to the financial "Big Bang", to ending one-party rule by the Liberal Democratic Party. Katz concludes that this is just the second round of a 15-round fight. Japan is a great nation currently trapped in obsolete institutions. As it has before, Japan will find a way to surmount its problems and regain its forward progress.

'A near miracle' Ha-Joon Chang, author of 23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism

According to the economy, we have never been wealthier or happier. So why doesn't it feel that way? The Growth Delusion explores how we prioritise growth maximisation without stopping to think about the costs. So much of what is important to our well-being, from safe streets to sound minds, lies outside the purview of statistics. In a book that is both thought-provoking and entertaining, David Pilling argues that our steadfast loyalty to growth is informing misguided policies, and proposes different criteria for measuring our success.

This report looks at the prospects for foreign direct investment and international production during and beyond the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic. It not only projects the immediate impact of the crisis on investment flows, but also assesses how it could affect a long-term structural transformation of international production. It reviews the evolution of international production networks over the past three decades and examines the configuration of these networks today. It then projects likely course changes for the next decade due to the combined effects of the pandemic and pre-existing megatrends, including the new industrial revolution, the sustainability imperative and the retreat of laissez faire policies

Using data science in order to solve a problem requires a scientific mindset more than coding skills. Data Science for Supply Chain Forecasting, Second Edition contends that a true scientific method which includes experimentation, observation, and constant questioning must be applied to supply chains to achieve excellence in demand forecasting. This second edition adds more than 45 percent extra content with four new chapters including an introduction to neural networks and the forecast value added framework. Part I focuses on statistical "traditional" models, Part II, on machine learning, and the all-new Part III discusses demand forecasting process management. The various chapters focus on both forecast models and new concepts such as metrics, underfitting, overfitting, outliers, feature optimization, and external demand drivers. The book is replete with do-it-yourself sections with implementations provided in Python (and Excel for the statistical models) to show the readers how to apply these models themselves. This hands-on book, covering the entire range of forecasting-from the basics all the way to leading-edge models-will benefit supply chain practitioners, forecasters, and analysts looking to go the extra mile with demand forecasting.

To fully function in today's global real estate industry, students and professionals increasingly need to understand how to implement essential and cutting-edge quantitative techniques. This book presents an easy-to-read guide to applying quantitative analysis in real estate aimed at non-cognate undergraduate and masters students, and meets the requirements of modern professional practice. Through case studies and examples illustrating applications using data sourced from dedicated real estate information providers and major firms in the industry, the book provides an introduction to the foundations underlying statistical data analysis, common data manipulations and understanding descriptive statistics, before gradually building up to more advanced quantitative analysis, modelling and forecasting of real estate markets. Our examples and case studies within the chapters have been specifically compiled for this book and explicitly designed to help the reader acquire a better understanding of the quantitative methods addressed in each chapter. Our objective is to equip readers with the skills needed to confidently carry out their own quantitative analysis and be able to interpret empirical results from academic work and practitioner studies in the field of real estate and in other asset classes. Both undergraduate and masters level students, as well as real estate analysts in the professions, will find this book to be essential reading.

Sustainability Accounting and Integrated Reporting deals with organizations' assessment, articulation and disclosure of their social and environmental impact on various groups in society. There is increasingly an understanding that financial information does not sufficiently discharge organizational accountability to members of society who are demanding an account of the social and environmental impacts of companies' and other organizations' activities. As a result, organizations report ever more social and environmental information, and there are simultaneous movements towards providing the information in an integrated fashion, showing how social and environmental activities influence each other, members of society and the financial aims of the organization. The book Sustainability Accounting and Integrated Reporting provides a broad and comprehensive review of the field, focusing on the interconnection between different elements of these topics, often dealt with in isolation. The book examines the accounting involved in the collection and analysis of data, control processes over the data, how information is reported to external parties, and the assurance of the information being reported. The book thereby provides an overview useful to practitioners (including sustainability managers, consultants, members of the accounting profession, and other assurance providers), academics, and students.

Economics: Beyond the Millennium contains articles by leading authorities in various fields of economic theory and econometrics. Each contributor gives an account of the current state of the art in their own field and indicates the direction that they think it will take in the next ten years. The book is split into three sections: the microfoundations of macroeconomics, markets and organization, and econometrics, with highlights including Malinvaud on resource allocation, Van Damme on game theory, and Gourieroux on econometric modelling.

In his long-awaited and provocative book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future-offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century. The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era-with changes in store.

This book focuses on the competitive situation and policy outlook of China's provincial economy in the 13th five-year period. It begins with a general evaluation report on the country's provincial comprehensive Economic Competitiveness, followed by analyses at the international, national and regional levels, industrial and enterprise levels. On the basis of domestic and international research findings, it further enriches our understanding of provincial competitiveness, analyzes the domestic and international situation, explores new changes, new norms, new situations and new challenges concerning China's provincial economy in the past few years, reveals the characteristics and relative differences of different types, defines their internal competitive strengths and weaknesses, and provides valuable theoretical content to guide decision-making.

The excessive pursuit of economic interests has resulted in severe environmental and social problems, such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and inequality and disparity. There is an urgent need for broader measures of progress to complement Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This book provides a wide range of economic evaluations of environmental and societal issues including climate change, emission problem from garbage landfills, and income inequality. The book explains that sustainability indicators and well-being measures can be effective guide for policy making and how they can strike a balance between economic, environmental, and societal interests. This book summarizes current practices and theories of economic evaluation for sustainability and provides understanding of emerging trends in this area. It also stresses the importance of environmental policies and business actions in achieving sustainable growth and puts forth why countries should take natural capital and other conventional inputs into consideration.

This volume focuses on the analysis and measurement of business cycles in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Divided into five parts, it begins with an overview of the main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles. Then it highlights the role of BRICS in the global economy and explores the interrelatedness of business cycles within BRICS. In turn, part two provides studies on the historical development of business cycles in the individual BRICS countries and describes the driving forces behind those cycles. Parts three and four present national business tendency surveys and composite cyclical indices for real-time monitoring and forecasting of various BRICS economies, while the final part discusses how the lessons learned in the BRICS countries can be used for the analysis of business cycles and their socio-political consequences in other emerging countries.

Supply chain professionals: master pioneering techniques for integrating demand and supply, and create demand forecasts that are far more accurate and useful! In Demand and Supply Integration, Dr. Mark Moon presents the specific design characteristics of a world-class demand forecasting management process, showing how to effectively integrate demand forecasting within a comprehensive Demand and Supply Integration (DSI) process. Writing for supply chain professionals in any business, government agency, or military procurement organization, Moon explains what DSI is, how it differs from approaches such as S&OP, and how to recognize the symptoms of failures to sufficiently integrate demand and supply. He outlines the key characteristics of successful DSI implementations, shows how to approach Demand Forecasting as a management process, and guides you through understanding, selecting, and applying the best available qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques. You'll learn how to thoroughly reflect market intelligence in your forecasts; measure your forecasting performance; implement state-of-the-art demand forecasting systems; manage Demand Reviews, and much more.

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting is a blind refereed serial publication published on an annual basis. The objective of this research annual is to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making. (An accurate, robust forecast is critical to effective decision making.) It is the hope and direction of the research annual to become an applications and practitioner-oriented publication.
The topics will normally include sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgmentally-based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, forecasting for strategic business decisions, improvements in forecasting accuracy, and sales response models. It is both the hope and direction of the editorial board to stimulate the interest of the practitioners of forecasting to methods and techniques that are relevant.
In Volume 5, there are sections devoted to financial applications of forecasting, as well as demand forecasting. There is, also, a section on general business applications of forecasting, as well as one on forecasting methodologies.
*Presents state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making.
*Publishes annually

This report is a partial result of the China's Quarterly Macroeconometric Model (CQMM), a project developed and maintained by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. The CMR is one of the Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China, focusing on China's economic forecast and macroeconomic policy analysis. The CMR started to develop the CQMM for purpose of short-term forecasting, policy analysis, and simulation in 2005. Based on the CQMM, the CMR and its partners hold press conferences to release forecasts for China' major macroeconomic variables. Since July, 2006, twenty-two quarterly reports on China's macroeconomic outlook have been presented and eleventh annual reports have been published. This 23rd quarterly report is to be presented at the Forum on China's Macroeconomic Outlook and Press Conference of CQMM on October 27, 2017. This conference is jointly held at Oxford University by Oxford Prospects and Global Development Centre, University of Oxford, Center for Macroeconomic Research at Xiamen University, and Economic Information Daily at Xinhua News Agency.

Quantitative marketing is not an easy subject to grasp. Quantitative Analysis in Marketing Management introduces a kinder, gentler approach to the various quantitative concepts and techniques in marketing management. This exciting new book examines techniques drawn from other management disciplines (e.g. financial management and operations management) and shows how these techniques can be applied to marketing management. To aid comprehension, a number of problems and case studies are included at the end of each chapter. The text is divided into three parts:

• statistics, demand analysis and forecasting;
• financial analysis, operations and control systems; and
• future trends