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Books > Business & Economics > Economics > Economic forecasting
Since the Maastricht Treaty of December, 1991, Europe has experienced rising nationalism and regionalism - both centrifugal effects working against union - and above all scepticism toward the Union concept itself. As certain of the member states fragment, or turn inward, a turning-point in history has been reached: it is the end of the post-War Europe. As such, is it even necessary for Europe to be united at all? Is the unification ideal too large a political concept, one that has been hot-housed and pushed ahead of economic conditions and realities? Is the ideal of European unification dying, and have the concepts enshrined in the Maastricht Treaty become museum pieces? These are among the incisive questions asked by writer-economist Noriko Hama, in Disintegrating Europe. Hama likens the situation to Wagner's cycle of operos, Der Ring, and wonders whether the European Union idea is as imperishable as the Europeans themselves maintain. When Wagner's hero Siegfried dies, the existing order dies with it in a Gotterdammerung, a "twilight of the gods" - and Hama argues that the flames that are presently destroying the Union's equivalent of Siegfried's hall may well be destined to devour eventually the whole castle of the European Valhalla itself. This approach is dramatic, readable, and compelling, and represents the first time that so qualified an economic commentator has attempted a 'big picture' view of the future of the European unification project. Predicting that the crumbling cornerstone of unity makes the present course untenable, the author provides an alternative vision for 21st Century Europe resting on the market mechanism as seen in East Asia. This, she argues, would serve asan 'engine of growth' to replace the now-faltering engine of the newly-united Germany, which instead will continue to wrestle with its deflationary absorption of East Germany.
As Singapore enters its 50th year of independence, it is a time for introspection to look back at the successes and challenges of the past, but is also a crucial time to consider what the future holds for the nation.Singapore 2065: Leading Insights on Economy and Environment from 50 Singapore Icons and Beyond is one such key contribution to the endeavour of thinking about what lies ahead. While many forthcoming projects and books take a more retrospective approach reflecting upon Singapore's past, this book adopts a forward-looking perspective, contemplating Singapore's distant future, which is important for posterity. This book is a collection of key insights from 50 iconic individuals of Singapore and beyond, and contains reasoned arguments, speculations and visionary expectations of Singapore's future in 50 years' time.The book discusses the distant future of Singapore's economy and the environment. What will Singapore's economic and environment landscape be like 50 years from now? Are there trends or scenarios common to the various discussions contained in this book? If there are, how big would be the impact of some of these trends? What and how should the government respond to these projections, expectations and informed visions of tomorrow? In sum, what would Singapore's economy and environment be like in 2065? The book explores a range of possible answers to these questions and more.Not only will the generations of today be able to gain much insight into Singapore's future by reading this book, but future generations, specifically 100 years after Singapore's independence, will be able to understand and affirm what and how today's generations think about their time. The book is a key contribution to envisioning Singapore's future, which is also vital for understanding what shapes Singapore's landscape today.
THE WILD INSIDE STORY OF CRYPTO'S GET-RICH-QUICK UNDERBELLY
Hall's excellent survey of business cycles is concise, lucid, and up-to-date discussing not only early theories of the business cycle and Keynesian and monetarist models, but also the rational expectationist and new Keynesian models along with actual business cycles. . . . Strengths of the book include an excellent bibliography and Hall's insightful history of business cycles from the panic of 1907 to the long cyclical expansion beginning in late 1982. "Choice" Intended as a primary text for upper-level undergraduate and graduate courses in business cycles and economic fluctuations, this book treats the nature and causes of business cycles. In contrast to previous works on the subject, which have tended to focus on basic macroeconomic models and intermediate level theory, "Business CycleS" offers both a broader scope and more in-depth coverage, concentrating on modern theories of the business cycle, data analysis, and recent and historical episodes of economic fluctuation. The author amplifies and combines the various theories that comprise the modern view of business cycles and develops a systematic rationale for economic fluctuations that integrates the key concept of economic shocks. Hall demonstrates that an economy grows over time but receives periodic shocks--such as oil price increases or monetary instability--which generate fluctuations. In addition to examining the nature of shocks that cause recessions and expansions, Hall suggests ways to forcast these cycles. Hall begins with a general overview of economic cycles and economic indicators and goes on to review the historical explanations for economic fluctuations that form the foundation for more modern theories. The contemporary theories of fluctuations--Keynesian, and real business cycles--receive extended treatment. Each theory is discussed in detail in a separate chapter that includes relevant empirical data. Hall then describes the nature and causes of several business cycles during the twentieth century, enabling the reader to see how the various alternative models of cycles explain actual phenomena over time. Finally, he examines some macroeconomic puzzles in the study of cycles and concludes with some observations about the performance of macroeconomic forecasting methods.
The basic functions of banking--lending, deposit taking, and making payments--are constant. What changes are the forms banking takes in response to increases in competition, globalizaion, new laws, and emerging technologies. Among the most visible of these changes will be an increase in the consolidation and globalization of banking in the world's major trading countries. Now, prestigious academics and practitioners, including regulators from around the world, join Benton E. Gup in exploring these coming changes--and by doing so, define a global perspective on banking's future. They find that the consolidation of banking will persist on a global scale. Electronic banking in all its forms will increase in importance, and banking in mature economies will be even more different from what it is now in developing economies. While focusing on the financial system in the United States, Gup's panel of contributors also explores financial systems in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere. Like Gup, they predict that a small handful of very large banks will control a disproportionate share of bank assets. Their views provide an unusual survey of current thinking in the domains of banking and finance, and an important source of current information, background, and foresights for banking and finance practitioners, students, and academics.
Q: How many female CEOs does it take to break the glass ceiling? A: That's the wrong question! Numbers alone simply don't tell the real story of how women are doing in today's corporate world. Success on Our Own Terms does. It's filled with real stories — stories of ordinary women who are making an extraordinary difference in the way corporations work. Success on Our Own Terms features women of different ages, ethnic backgrounds, and educational levels. Their combined experiences offer a fascinating portrait of how the corporate landscape has changed for women over the last few decades. This book is filled with the wisdom of these experiences, from important lessons on navigating corporate corridors and influencing the system to juggling work and personal life, helping local communities, and much more. Exploring the multidimensional definition of success shared by these women, this book reveals how they are working hard to reach their goals, balance their lives, and make a positive contribution to society. It shows how they —and others like them —are transforming the organization from the inside out through their own unique management style, values, vision, and determination. By designing, achieving, and owning their success, women are exploding conventional definitions of their progress in the workplace. The female voices in Success on Our Own Terms inform, encourage, and inspire us all. "Wonderful, timely, and absolutely refreshing. Reading this book excited and inspired me, and reaffirmed my belief that the future will be a great place for women." —Sally Helgesen, author of The Female Advantage: Women's Ways of Leadership and Everyday Revolutionaries: Working Women and the Transformation of American Life "Virginia O'Brien tells the real story —that 'we are entering a new phase in which women are becoming full participants with men in conducting the nation's business.'. . . It's a heartening read, and a good antidote to media tales of doom and gloom." —Caryl Rivers, coauthor of She Works, He Works: How Two Income Families Are Happier, Healthier, and Better Off "A must read to understand the multidimensional new values successful women bring to the marketplace of ideas. . . . [Readers] will find themselves, a friend, or a loved one on every page." —Carol R. Goldberg, President of the Avcar Group, Ltd. and former President and COO of Stop & Shop Companies, Inc. "Insightful and informative. This excellent work brings the stories of successful women executives to the forefront." —Charles E. Rice, Chairman and CEO, Barnett Banks, Inc. "These are inspiring stories, which I highly recommend." —Richard McCormick, Chairman and CEO, US West, Inc.
This book extends Thirlwall's original model and adapts its implications to the current problems of the developed and emerging economies. In this context, this book combines theoretical models and empirical applications to unveil new results consistent with the balance of payments constrained growth. The book provides an alternative to orthodox growth theory which neglects the importance of the balance of payments as a constraint to growth.
This study addresses the two major challenges facing the global economy: globalization and the European structural crisis. In addition, it takes a closer look at the impact of this on the Italian economy. The findings reflect on the issue of long term growth and suggest ways in which to create sustainable financial conditions for the future.
Why do markets exist? How are they maintained? What are market systems and how are they formed? This book addresses these fundamental questions and challenges the traditional view that markets and market systems are 'natural', asserting instead that they are ideologically coloured and of dubious scientific value.
American agricultural production is destined to end, argues Steven Blank, but this should be no cause for alarm. In this work, he shows that the changes leading to the end of American agricultural production are part of a natural process that is making us all better off. Beginning with broad observations from history and the current status of agriculture around the world, Blank explores how the decisions of individuals combine to make the end of American agricultural production predictable and rational. The inevitable creeping of international economic development is shown to be the sum of individual struggles facing producers across America and around the world. Also, decisions regarding operating an agricultural business derive from many interrelated peculiarities of the industry, both in America and elsewhere. The story is fascinating in its global scope and is relevant to everyone because the simple economic decision-making processes involved will be repeated in the story of other industries.
This book details very simply and for even the most novice of potential analysts not only how to perform analytics which describe what is happening, predict what is going to happen, and optimize responses, but also places these analytics in the context of proactive strategy development.
A worsening economic crisis due to the shift in wealth over the past decade is the central concern of this carefully documented study. It profiles the current status of income inequality in the United States and discerns disturbing trends for the future. A wealth of data are collected, evaluated, and simplified into a straightforward look at both the economic changes brought on by misguided reforms of the 1980s and a proposed system for measuring income inequality which may help clarify the issues pertinent to the debate. Folke Dovring perceives the current U.S. economy as an imminent threat to our democratic system, and urges increased awareness of the variables which will effect its return to a healthy state of balance where income inequality, necessary to a certain degree, sustains productivity and individual incentives. A general overview of the facts and problems associated with income distribution, viewed from historical, geographical, and sociological perspectives, establishes the study's priorities, and is followed by the development of criteria which can more accurately estimate the nature and extent of income inequality, moving the study closer to recommendations for systematic public policy which may promote continued economic growth. The urgency with which Dovring addresses this topic and the thoroughness of his presentation will compel scholars and policymakers, especially those interested in poverty economics, to give immediate attention to the issue of economic inequality through informed, meaningful discussion.
Innovation, science and technology and the wealth gained from them make continuous media copy and yet there is a manifest imbalance in society, a paradox of more prosperity but growing exclusion. This book marks the 25th anniversary of the Six Countries Programme, which pioneered the study of innovation from a policy viewpoint but with a radical ethos. This ethos is continued by the contributors to this book who challenge much of the current thinking on innovation and technology and attempt to provide markers for the way ahead. They propose a systemic approach to the innovation process as the route to a more sustainable future and provide the alternative of a learning society to a knowledge society which seems to be inexorably driven by Schumpetarian dynamics.
Will China eventually be able to eliminate its socialist animal spirits? Highlighting the importance of China's investment booms and busts for both the Chinese and the world economy, Animal Spirits with Chinese Characteristics describes the origins and evolution of the investment cycle during the command economy period.
The rise of large economic regions rivaling the United States will challenge its competitive strength and ability to withstand cross-border economic turbulence--a challenge the U.S. has not faced in more than 50 years. To meet this challenge, American business leaders need a comprehensive understanding of the existing global economic and monetary system. It is that, plus an explanation of international economic trend analysis, that Schaefer's book provides. Based on key economic and financial indicators published weekly in The Economist, Schaefer integrates a discussion of established international economic concepts with actual economic and financial data, giving readers a system to evaluate current economic indicators and anticipate future trends. An important resource for professionals and academics in international finance and investment, and for corporate management operating on a global scale.
Korea experiences a traumatic and largely unanticipated economic crisis in 1997-98 from which the country is still recovering. The crisis laid bare numerous structural, economic, and policy weaknesses. The authors chronicle and analyze the key factors behind Korea's economic miracle from 1962-1989 and the causes that contributed to the economic downturn and ensuing crisis of 1997-98. As the country undertakes a series of recovery measures, the authors consider the importance of the ongoing restructuring efforts in the corporate and banking sectors, the development of the 'new economy', and the potential economic advantages to be derived from reunification with the North.
Alibaba, Samsung, Toyota - Asia is home to some of the world's biggest, most innovative and most trusted brands. As the global economy undergoes massive disruption in the wake of Covid-19, what are the new brands emerging from the region? Which brands will be the next big thing? Take a deep dive into Asia's most promising brands, ranging from Korea's fast-expanding Go Pizza and Singapore's Kinobi edu-tech platform to Vietnam's automobile wunderkind, VinFast. Through wide-ranging interviews with the brands' founders and management teams, author Jörg Dietzel uncovers what makes each of them tick, and distills invaluable lessons for every business out there looking to take off in the post-Covid world.
This book investigates several competing forecasting models for interest rates, financial returns, and realized volatility, addresses the usefulness of nonlinear models for hedging purposes, and proposes new computational techniques to estimate financial processes.
"Advances in Business and Management Forecasting" is a blind refereed serial publication published on an annual basis. The objective of this research annual is to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making. (An accurate, robust forecast is critical to effective decision making.) It is the hope and direction of the research annual to become an applications- and practitioner-oriented publication. The topics will normally include sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgmentally based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, forecasting for strategic business decisions, improvements in forecasting accuracy, and sales response models. It is both the hope and direction of the editorial board to stimulate the interest of the practitioners of forecasting to methods and techniques that are relevant.
For undergraduate and graduate courses in Business Forecasting. Written in a simple, straightforward style, Business Forecasting 9/e presents basic statistical techniques using practical business examples to teach students how to predict long-term forecasts.
Forecasting exchange rates is a variable that preoccupies economists, businesses and governments, being more critical to more people than any other variable. In Exchange Rate Forecasting the author sets out to provide a concise survey of the techniques of forecasting - bringing together the various forecasting methods and applying them to the exchange rate in a highly accessible and readable manner. Highly practical in approach, the book provides an understanding of the techniques of forecasting with an emphasis on its applications and use in business decision-making, such as hedging, speculation, investment, financing and capital budgeting. In addition, the author also considers recent developments in the field, notably neural networks and chaos, again, with easy-to-understand explanations of these "rocket science" areas. The practical approach to forecasting is also reflected in the number of examples that pepper the text, whilst descriptions of some of the software packages that are used in practice to generate forecasts are also provided.
'A dazzling history of the future – Hamish McRae has given us a tour de force' - Tim Harford _______________ A bold and illuminating vision of the future, from one of Europe’s foremost speakers on global trends in economics, business and society What will the world look like in 2050? How will complex forces of change – demography, the environment, finance, technology and ideas about governance – affect our global society? And how, with so many unknowns, should we think about the future? One of Europe’s foremost voices on global trends in economics, business and society, Hamish McRae takes us on an exhilarating journey through the next thirty years. Drawing on decades of research, and combining economic judgement with historical perspective, Hamish weighs up the opportunities and dangers we face, analysing the economic tectonic plates of the past and present in order to help us chart a map of the future. A bold and vital vision of our planet, The World in 2050 is an essential projection for anyone worried about what the future holds. For if we understand how our world is changing, we will be in a better position to secure our future in the decades to come. |
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