A highly readable, logically presented, unique guide to asset allocation strategies and technical analysis, this work covers numerous investment alternatives including mutual funds and fixed income securities. Aby and Vaughn provide a comprehensive examination of point and figure charting and vertical bar analysis, combined with an approach that both improves timing and emphasizes the minimization of errors in data interpretation and investment decision making. The authors discuss ways to estimate price targets and provide unique forecasting methods for fixed-income and aggregate equity markets, using an intermarket perspective. This is an important and useful resource for professionals and other knowledgeable investors.

Throughout the book, Aby and Vaughn challenge conventional and acceptable academic thinking. Through emphasis on smaller, more obscure capitalization issues, they reduce complex concepts to a highly readable framework pervaded by comprehensive coverages of a large number of investment options. Major topics featured include the illustration and application of critical concepts underlying vertical bar chart analysis; extensive coverage on contemporary strategies that improve timing and challenge past criticisms of point and figure charting; a unique approach utilizing the point and figure charts to reveal how mutual fund selection can be improved; and intermarket technical analysis, a method through which movements in bond prices and yields are predicted.

A worsening economic crisis due to the shift in wealth over the past decade is the central concern of this carefully documented study. It profiles the current status of income inequality in the United States and discerns disturbing trends for the future. A wealth of data are collected, evaluated, and simplified into a straightforward look at both the economic changes brought on by misguided reforms of the 1980s and a proposed system for measuring income inequality which may help clarify the issues pertinent to the debate.

Folke Dovring perceives the current U.S. economy as an imminent threat to our democratic system, and urges increased awareness of the variables which will effect its return to a healthy state of balance where income inequality, necessary to a certain degree, sustains productivity and individual incentives. A general overview of the facts and problems associated with income distribution, viewed from historical, geographical, and sociological perspectives, establishes the study's priorities, and is followed by the development of criteria which can more accurately estimate the nature and extent of income inequality, moving the study closer to recommendations for systematic public policy which may promote continued economic growth. The urgency with which Dovring addresses this topic and the thoroughness of his presentation will compel scholars and policymakers, especially those interested in poverty economics, to give immediate attention to the issue of economic inequality through informed, meaningful discussion.

The rise of large economic regions rivaling the United States will challenge its competitive strength and ability to withstand cross-border economic turbulence--a challenge the U.S. has not faced in more than 50 years. To meet this challenge, American business leaders need a comprehensive understanding of the existing global economic and monetary system. It is that, plus an explanation of international economic trend analysis, that Schaefer's book provides. Based on key economic and financial indicators published weekly in The Economist, Schaefer integrates a discussion of established international economic concepts with actual economic and financial data, giving readers a system to evaluate current economic indicators and anticipate future trends. An important resource for professionals and academics in international finance and investment, and for corporate management operating on a global scale.

Korea experiences a traumatic and largely unanticipated economic crisis in 1997-98 from which the country is still recovering. The crisis laid bare numerous structural, economic, and policy weaknesses. The authors chronicle and analyze the key factors behind Korea's economic miracle from 1962-1989 and the causes that contributed to the economic downturn and ensuing crisis of 1997-98. As the country undertakes a series of recovery measures, the authors consider the importance of the ongoing restructuring efforts in the corporate and banking sectors, the development of the 'new economy', and the potential economic advantages to be derived from reunification with the North.

This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth. GDP forecasts for the years 2006 to 2020 for 40 countries are derived in a transparent way. Offering a systematic approach to models of potential GDP that can also be used for forecasts of more than a decade it fills the wide gap between the high demand for such models by banks, international organizations, and governments on the one hand and the limited supply on the other hand. Frequent forecast failures in the past (e.g. Japan 1990, Asia 1997) and the heavy economic losses they produced motivated the work. The book assesses the large number of theories of economic growth, the drivers of economic growth, the available datasets and the empirical methods on offer. A preference is shown for evolutionary models and an augmented Kaldor model. The book uses non-stationary panel techniques to find pair-wise cointegration among GDP per capita and its main correlates.

The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the futurecomes fromthe core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and "ex post" studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2Acovers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2Binvestigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literaturescattered acrossappliedand theoretical statistics journals as well aseconometrics and empirical economics journals. "The Handbook of Economic Forecasting" Volumes 2A and 2Bprovide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues.
Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applicationsPresents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applicationsMakes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics"

This collection of 22 commissioned essays from scholars across numerous fields responded to the question: What are the most fundamental things you can say concerning the interrelations between the institutions of government and property? Contributing authors were asked to address this question in a positive analysis and that their essay penetrate to the deepest (most fundamental) levels of property-government organization. Their contributions are illuminating.

"Advances in Business and Management Forecasting" is a blind refereed serial publication published on an annual basis. The objective of this research annual is to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making. (An accurate, robust forecast is critical to effective decision making.) It is the hope and direction of the research annual to become an applications- and practitioner-oriented publication. The topics will normally include sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgmentally based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, forecasting for strategic business decisions, improvements in forecasting accuracy, and sales response models. It is both the hope and direction of the editorial board to stimulate the interest of the practitioners of forecasting to methods and techniques that are relevant.

Pathology of the Capitalist Spirit is about capital and about the economic system that bears its name. In this book, Levine argues that our pursuit of ever-more wealth in the form of capital expresses our dissatisfaction with the world we live in, with what we have and what we don't have. Capital embodies our hope for something different. Because capital embodies this hope, it has become desire's object. In his study of capitalism, Levine explores the meaning of capital as a social reality connected to fundamental human aspirations. The link between capital and the pursuit of a hoped-for state is especially important in light of the stubborn insistence on the part of its critics that capitalism exists to serve the material interests of those whose vocation is to own capital. This misunderstanding ignores what is essential about capital, which is its link not to interests but to hope, especially the hope that by accumulating capital the individual can achieve an attachment to the good. It is this hope that blocks tolerance of any notion that there is something unfair in the capitalist's acquisition of wealth and that fairness can be achieved through its redistribution to others. It is also this hope that animates the capitalist system as a whole. And in that sense, this hope is the spirit of capitalism. To develop this theme, Levine calls on the ideas and writings of major theorists involved with understanding modernity and capitalism: Adam Smith, Karl Marx, Max Weber, Emile Durkheim, and Joseph Schumpeter.

For the past 30 years international monetary economists have believed that exchange rate models cannot outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting as a result of the 1983 paper written by Richard Meese and Kenneth Rogoff. Marking the culmination of their extensive research into the Meese-Rogoff puzzle, Moosa and Burns challenge the orthodoxy by demonstrating that the naive random walk model can be outperformed by exchange rate models when forecasting accuracy is measured by metrics that do not rely exclusively on the magnitude of forecasting error. The authors present compelling evidence, supported by their own measure: the 'adjusted root mean square error', to finally solve the Meese-Rogoff puzzle and provide a new alternative. Demystifying the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle will appeal to academics with an interest in exchange rate economics and international monetary economics. It will also be a useful resource for central banks and financial institutions.

Financial crisis, recession and worsening inequality have long been blamed on a surplus of capital. But the actions that led the latest boom and bust by banks and businesses, households and governments - can better be explained capital's increasing scarcity. Efforts to track it down confirm its disappearance.

Forecasting exchange rates is a variable that preoccupies economists, businesses and governments, being more critical to more people than any other variable. In Exchange Rate Forecasting the author sets out to provide a concise survey of the techniques of forecasting - bringing together the various forecasting methods and applying them to the exchange rate in a highly accessible and readable manner. Highly practical in approach, the book provides an understanding of the techniques of forecasting with an emphasis on its applications and use in business decision-making, such as hedging, speculation, investment, financing and capital budgeting. In addition, the author also considers recent developments in the field, notably neural networks and chaos, again, with easy-to-understand explanations of these "rocket science" areas. The practical approach to forecasting is also reflected in the number of examples that pepper the text, whilst descriptions of some of the software packages that are used in practice to generate forecasts are also provided.

This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.

What has happened in Latin America's energy sector since the early 1990s is a revolution. Roles of state energy companies, private investment, and foreign capital are rapidly changing. This comprehensive study from the East-West Center presents an in-depth analysis and realistic forecast of Latin America's energy growth and consumption of primary energy and petroleum products. It also explores relationships between Latin American producers and U.S. and international energy markets. Here is invaluable information for energy economists, policy makers, government regulatory officials, oil company executives, and those interested in gaining an insight into the Latin American energy sector and its future.

With the rapid development of economic globalization and information technology, the field of economic forecasting continues its expeditious advancement, providing business and government with applicable technologies. Business Intelligence in Economic Forecasting: Technologies and Techniques discusses various Business Intelligence techniques including neural networks, support vector machine, genetic programming, clustering analysis, TEI@I, fuzzy systems, text mining, and many more. This publication serves as a valuable reference for professionals and researchers interested in BI technologies and their practical applications in economic forecasting, as well as policy makers in business organizations and governments.

With motivated human resources and a rich natural bounty, Myanmar is expected to take off with sustained growth and eventually attain a unique welfare state. On the basis of the authors' field surveys and innumerable dialogues with public officials, private professionals, scholars, and others, in addition to intensive desk studies since around 2000, the present volume lays out the essential ingredients for drawing a roadmap to realise the above-mentioned objective. That goal is, specifically, financial development, adequate social capital, indigenous modern manufactures and closer international tie-ups, among others, but above all, sound agrarian development. An effort has been made to place the required ingredients in their historical contexts, as historical experiences constitute an important sociopolitical condition in which development takes place. Myanmar nationals and readers concerned with the country's economic progress are encouraged to give serious, sustained thought to coming up with a socially supportable roadmap for the country's development path. The present volume provides valuable hints for that purpose.

To have a sound strategy a company must be able to conduct a sound environmental assessment (EA). Executives and managers in all industries need to be able to analyze and anticipate trends in the economy as well as their industries and target markets. But guidance on effective approaches to environmental assessment is scattered among the literature on everything from economics, to marketing, general management and strategy. Meanwhile most executives are uncertain about both current and future prospects for their own commercial environment. Addressing the need for proven EA guidelines, Roney's book offers practical approaches that can help planners develop models detailing the trends, forecasts, and alternative futures which are integral to environmental assessment and thus critical to effective strategic planning.

Roney begins with a broad description of the environmental assessment practices of American business, and how these practices have created significant competitive advantages for U.S. businesses. After reviewing approaches to assessing a company's economy, its industry and the markets it serves, Roney analyzes the forecasting methods themselves. He focuses on assessing uncertainty and alternative futures through the use of scenario forecasting and contingency planning. His concluding chapter summarizes the environmental conditions that can be defined with reasonable accuracy, describing the range of techniques that can be used in the assessment process. His appendix, an information tool kit, provides a variety of important reference materials. Included are tables to cross-reference SIC codes and the new NAICS classification categories; projections of demographic trends for the U.S. and other industrialized nations; economic and demographic data describing the composition of world markets, plus additional aids that strategic planners and corporate management with other responsibilities will find invaluable.

The "Contributions to Economic Analysis" series consists of a number of previously unpublished studies. The term economic analysis is used because it covers the activities of the theoretical economist and the research worker.

"Economic Forecasting" deals with macroeconomic forecasts from a global point of view. The focus is first on a large range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A synthetic overview of economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided.

"Optimal Growth Economics" is concerned with the investigation of the contemporary issues in general economics, and growth economics and in the formulation of optimal growth programs, especially the issue of the sustainability of growth. This book proposes the development of optimal growth economics as a distinct, coherent and practical discipline useful for social choice by using the techniques of mathematical modelling and computing to address a wide range of emerging and enduring issues in economics. A considerable number of optimal economic growth models have been developed in the book to address the crucial issues of different branches in economics, including growth and development economics, economic planning, welfare economics, environmental economics, human capital development, political economy, natural resources and the economics of uncertainty.

This title, first published in 1979, presents the Ph.D. thesis of the world-renowned economist and financial expert, Willem Buiter. In Part I, three alternative specifications of temporary equilibria in asset markets, including their implications for macroeconomic models, are discussed; Part II examines the long-term implications of some short-term macroeconomic models. The analysis of the theoretical foundations of 'direct crowding out' and 'indirect crowding out' is particularly prominent, with the result that a synthesis of short-term macroeconomic analysis and long-term growth theory is formulated. The traditional tools of comparative dynamics and stability analysis are employed frequently. However, it is also argued that the true scope of government policy can only be adequately evaluated with the aid of concepts such as dynamic and static controllability. Temporary Equilibrium and Long-Run Equilibrium is a valuable study, and relevant for all serious students of modern economic theory.

This thoroughly revised second edition of an upper-level undergraduate/graduate text describes many major techniques of forecasting used in economics and business. This is the only time series book to concentrate on the forecasting of economic data and to cover such a broad range of topics. The key features are: explains how to specify and evaluate simple models from the time series and econometric approaches; places special emphasis on the information that is derived from the evaluation and combinations of forecasts; discusses the topics of technological and population forecasting; includes an expanded chapter on regression techniques; presents a practical forecasting project which runs throughout the text; includes an appendix on basic statistical concepts.

At the time in which this book was first published in 1987, mass unemployment had emerged as the dominant, most visible, problem of the West European economies. The post-war experience of expansion was remarkable in that it experienced growth high enough to sustain a consensus on the possibility and desirability of full employment. This period declined into one of poor economic performance in the 1970s. Growth slowed and the subsequent years were characterised by painful adjustment and dislocation. In this challenging discussion of ways to overcome unemployment Ciaran Driver stresses the importance of managed restructuring. Driver focuses attention of the role of investment in fixed assets and human resources, and argues that governments do have a major role in steering the economy through a period of turbulent change, and that there are policies which can move the economy towards full employment. This book is ideal for students of business and economics.

Energy price rises have been amongst the biggest change that has taken place in our society over the last few decades. Their impact, particularly when this book was first published in 1983, had a growing importance in social policy, practice and research, and fuel was, and still is, a major public issue. This collection of essays describes how any why domestic fuel prices have been rising faster than other prices and incomes, what impacts this has on domestic budgets, and the extent of 'fuel poverty'. The resulting problems of debts, disconnections, cold conditions and hypothermia are discussed by specialists in these fields. This book is ideal for students of economics and social policy.

This book offers a comprehensive overview of sustainability and management in India and through its insightful essays highlights the complex and multifaceted nature of sustainability as a concept. It also demonstrates the debates surrounding the concept of sustainability and its ramifications for ground-level practice in managing organisations and for public policy. The contributions from sustainability enthusiasts, practitioners from disparate fields and academics working at the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, have been divided into five themes: (1) sustainability as a normative concept; (2) sustainability concept at the global level, (3) sustainability practices in Indian organisations and consumer behaviour; (4) sustainability, corporate governance and corporate social responsibility and (5) sustainability: a critique of organisational practice and government regulation. The themes reflect both new and continuing issues confronting management in the country today. Examples and in-depth studies make it relevant to the grounded reality in India. The expertise and experience of the contributors ensure that readers are left with a grasp of our current understanding of how sustainability is related to society and business, the direction this understanding will take in the future.