This book examines the U.S economy from 1967 to 2011 and utilizes a new method to predict the future of the economy as far ahead as 2030. This new method uses population subgroup data. Variables used in the cross-sectional matrix include ethnicity, sex, age, and average personal income of those having personal income. The mathematical basis, the data used, and the results are all presented in graphic form. The estimates are compared to National Bureau of Economic Research Dating Committee data. Projections using estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Census are used to further project personal income, personal income annual change, and disposable personal income to 2030. The book concludes that the New Energy Movement and their development of non-polluting energy and electricity production methods that do not consume uranium, radioactive material, or fossil fuels. Therefore, large amounts of money should be invested in these devices, their development, and implementation.

The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the futurecomes fromthe core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and "ex post" studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2Acovers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2Binvestigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literaturescattered acrossappliedand theoretical statistics journals as well aseconometrics and empirical economics journals. "The Handbook of Economic Forecasting" Volumes 2A and 2Bprovide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues.
Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applicationsPresents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applicationsMakes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics"

The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the futurecomes fromthe core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and "ex post" studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2Acovers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2Binvestigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literaturescattered acrossappliedand theoretical statistics journals as well aseconometrics and empirical economics journals. "The Handbook of Economic Forecasting" Volumes 2A and 2Bprovide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues.
Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applicationsPresents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applicationsMakes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics"

In this fourth volume of The Deals of Warren Buffett, we trace Buffett’s journey as he made Berkshire Hathaway the most respected company in the world.

When we left Buffett at the end of Volume 3 towards the end of the 1990s, he was leading the largest corporation in America and his personal fortune had reached $40 billion. In this enthralling next instalment, we follow Buffett’s investment deals over the first few years of the 21st century, as Berkshire grew to become a giant with annual profits north of $4 billion.

Buffett, then in his early 70s, was still tap dancing to work, thoroughly enjoying analysing companies, finding bargains and interacting with his growing team of managers.

By studying the decision-making that went into his investment deals and the successful and unsuccessful outcomes, we can learn from Buffett and become better investors ourselves.

During this period, exploiting the low prices following the dot-com crash, Buffett made investments in the following companies: MidAmerican Energy, CORT, Moody’s, H&R Block, Shaw Industries, Star Furniture, Jordan’s Furniture, Ben Bridge Jeweler, Justin Boot, Acme Brick, Benjamin Moore and CTB.

For each of these deals, investing expert and Buffett historian Glen Arnold dives into unprecedented detail to analyse the investment rationale, the stories of the individuals involved and, where possible, the profits Buffett made.

This timely book sets out how ordinary citizens can reform our broken economy.

Politicians curry favour with interest groups such as trade unions, public service workers, teachers and the unemployed, instead of serving the general public. Trade unions exploit labour laws to get benefits for their members without increasing productivity. Teachers enjoy sheltered employment without producing properly qualified learners. Formal employees abuse the bargaining-council system to push up labour costs imposed on employers and employees outside the system. Notoriously unproductive “public servants” enjoy above-market salaries in a growing sector that creates little to no economic value. Unemployed people, of whom there are 11 million, form the bedrock of our community of 18 million recipients of welfare grants. They produce nothing in return. The glue holding together all these forms of rent-seeking, is centralised government power, undergirded by laws and government spending.

The author highlights that the system of rent-seeking has damaged moral fabric in this country, eating at it like a virus. It does not let go, because it contains the seed of destruction of any argument deployed towards dismantling it. Rent-seeking is embarked upon – invariably almost – in the name of some noble cause or other. And noble causes demand that we be on the right side of them, or risk being tainted as unfair, oppressive, right-wing or simply bad.

Who in their right mind doesn’t want to protect workers against unemployment or exploitation, advance previously disadvantaged black citizens, improve the matric pass rate, help the poor with housing and money, build a strong public service?

Growth miracles typically have been studied at the country level. The Making of Miracles in Indian States breaks from that tradition and studies three growth miracles in India at the level of the state: Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, and Gujarat. These are three of the largest and most diverse states in India. Andhra Pradesh is situated in the south of India, Bihar in the east, and Gujarat in the west. Bihar is the poorest among all states in India, Gujarat the third richest among the largest eighteen states, and Andhra Pradesh in the middle. Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat have long coastal lines while Bihar is landlocked. Yet, all of these states have grown at rates exceeding 8% for an entire decade in the 21st century. Despite many differences in the initial conditions, several common threads tie the high-growth experiences of the three states. First, accelerated growth has permitted acceleration in the growth of development expenditures in all three states, which has helped improve connectivity to markets. Alongside this growth, poverty has seen accelerated decline. Second, the composition of growth matters. Growth in high-value commodities such as fruits and vegetables, commercial crops, dairy, and animal husbandry in Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat has led to accelerated reduction in rural poverty. However, the failure of labor-intensive industry has stunted the migration of workers out of agriculture into industry. Third, the quality of leadership that brings improved governance with it is central to improved outcomes in the states. Visionary leaders--Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh, Nitish Kumar in Bihar, and Narendra Modi in Gujarat--played critical roles in the making of all three miracles. Fourth, the three studies also bring out the importance of pro-market reforms and the adoption of technology in development. Finally, the studies show that good economics is also good politics: voters reward the chief ministers who bring about significant improvement to the people's lives.

For undergraduate and graduate courses in Business Forecasting. Written in a simple, straightforward style, Business Forecasting 9/e presents basic statistical techniques using practical business examples to teach students how to predict long-term forecasts.

This report is a partial result of the China's Quarterly Macroeconometric Model (CQMM), a project developed and maintained by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. The CMR is one of the Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China, focusing on China's economic forecast and macroeconomic policy analysis. The CMR started to develop the CQMM for purpose of short-term forecasting, policy analysis, and simulation in 2005. Based on the CQMM, the CMR and its partners hold press conferences to release forecasts for China' major macroeconomic variables. Since July, 2006, twenty-two quarterly reports on China's macroeconomic outlook have been presented and eleventh annual reports have been published. This 23rd quarterly report is to be presented at the Forum on China's Macroeconomic Outlook and Press Conference of CQMM on October 27, 2017. This conference is jointly held at Oxford University by Oxford Prospects and Global Development Centre, University of Oxford, Center for Macroeconomic Research at Xiamen University, and Economic Information Daily at Xinhua News Agency.

The book is a dialogue between a money manager and a young man who asks whether or not he should invest. Their conversation explores How for money and not-for-money investment differ; How accounting and economic assets compare with social and natural assets; How time is central to all of investment, building capabilities in the present which can deliver resources in the future; How banks collectively create and destroy money; How the yield curve shows the market interest rates for financial assets of different durations; How competitive advantage is important in determining the returns achieved on real assets; How fundamental value differs from price, or what someone is prepared to pay; How fundamental analysis and technical analysis of price data provide insights into risk; How mean-variance analysis of price data is the conventional approach to risk; How the economic ecosystem creates prices How capitalism may be a lousy system and yet the best available as it adapts continuously to align money prices and human values. The book is for people who want to know how investment works and how they can invest their savings. I think of it as an amalgam of an everyman's guide to business and economics, an introduction to investment, and an apology for 'capitalism'. Ben Paton

Western and Central Europe contains both strong established and new, emerging markets for US and European mobile communications companies. This book is a comprehensive analysis of the current status and future integration prospects in these markets, with clear, in-depth explanations of standards, regulations and technology. Markets are identified and compared, showing where future growth will happen and when.

A comprehensive reference for the consumer movement, this book sets information covering subjects like movement-related institutions in a historical framework. Leaders, activities, and impacts are covered, with particular attention given to the laws and regulations intended to protect consumers.

The globalization of business and the ubiquity of available data in the information age are the driving forces behind the increasing importance of economic forecasting. In order to remain competitive, private and public organizations alike must employ forecasting techniques effectively. Hoshmand emphasizes the application and practical use of such techniques rather than their theoretical grounding. Decision makers and students who have a solid background in economics and statistics will find this book eminently useful. After discussing the role of forecasting in business decisions, the author moves on to smoothing techniques, regression models, and the advanced time series models of Box-Jenkins. Of particular help to practitioners is the concluding chapter on how to communicate forecasts to management.

Forecasting professionals and researchers will benefit greatly from the information presented by Hoshmand, especially in their role as advisors to management. Few forecasters and even fewer managers will have had the luxury to remain fully informed of the new developments in this rapidly expanding field. Meanwhile, the importance of accurate forecasting to every realm of corporate strategy--production, inventory, purchasing, accounting, marketing, finance, and acquisitions decisions, to name a few--has increased exponentially due to the proliferation of data, the heating up of global competition, and the softening of many markets. No one today can afford to remain ignorant of the importance of economic forecasting for business decisions.

In the future, some regions of the world will probably experience vigorous economic growth, while others struggle to survive. Unless the United States recognizes these probabilities and the implications of them, standards of living in this country will continue to decline. This is the warning Hazel Johnson gives in this book--an analysis of global economic trends and capital flows that reveals strong regional patterns of development. The book was written when the appeal of globalization was almost irresistible: communism was being overthrown and global market economies seemed inevitable. But Johnson detected factors that would prevent globalization, for example: a closed Japanese society that focused on winning the economic war, a Germany that would overextend itself to achieve reunification, and a Latin America whose problems would be felt more by the United States than by any other developed country. Analysts are only now beginning to face these realities. Most notably, Lester Thurow ("Head to Head," 1992) has acknowledged all these factors and concludes (subsequent to the publication of Johnson's book) that regional trading blocks will, in fact, emerge.

Johnson's volume is unique in viewing the world in its entirety rather than treating one country or region at a time, and in presenting events in a historical context to explain current and probable future economic relationships among countries. The work is compelling because it dares to examine the economic behavior of countries with a critical rather than a diplomatic eye. It should be of interest to scholars and policymakers in international finance and trade, as well as those studying development and international economics.

During the 1990s Francis Fukuyama announced the end of history. The 2000s showed how it is an illusion to imagine a peaceful world without conflict. In this book the authors explore how six major constraints are set to fix the trajectory of the global economy. Three of them are new: the aging population, the failure of technical progress, and the scarcity of savings. The other three have been at work for some time: the explosion of inequality, the mass transfer of activities from one end of the world to the other, and the limitless financialization of economy. They suggest that like seismic activity which depends on pressure between tectonic plates, the political and social tensions will be exacerbated in the coming years by these major forces. They propose that authorities will be incapable of preventing neither the date nor the intensity of the coming earthquakes, and ask the question: Are we able to cope with these future shocks and the violence they are sure to cause?

Two important new developments have occurred that have significant impact on the evolution of econometrics, namely, the end of the Cold War and the emergence of the information revolution in nearly all economies of the world.

The information revolution has had significant effect on data flows, making them much more timely, accessible, and descriptive of more parts of the economy. At the same time, it has changed the industrial structure of many economies, giving rise to increasing importance of the tertiary sectors (e.g. services). The new generation of hardware and software enables econometricians to handle larger and more complex problems, especially those that are data intensive and computer intrusive.

These major events require reconsideration and redrafting of some of the materials of the original edition.

The present volume retains the original structure of "Lectures on Microeconomic Theory" and takes up principles of constructing dynamic macroeconometric models and their use in economic analyses and forecasting, while introducing many updates, revisions and extensions. The description of the econometric methodology has been limited to specific applications of time series analysis, and the title has been changed to "Principles of Macroeconometric Modeling."

The first four chapters discuss the principles of specifying equations of structural macromodels, covering both developed marked economies, transition economies and world-wide models. The remaining chapters cover some major issues in the use of macromodels. The point of departure is model simulation, especially of the prevailing non-linear models, which is followed by model validation. The analysis of model dynamics covers economic fluctuations and the relevant implications of non-stationarity. The use of macromodels in policy analysis is presented next; it includes multiplier analysis and scenario simulations. The monograph ends up with forecasting being a special case of simulation analysis.

The economy of Iraq has fluctuated wildly since the 1950s. It has been affected by changes in governments, by wars, and by general instability. This book analyzes a complex subject and is especially timely at this critical juncture in the history of Iraq, the Middle East, and international relations. Abbas Alnasrawi traces the growth of the Iraqi economy since 1950, assesses its present state of crisis and underdevelopment, and explores its prospects for recovery. Alnasrawi contends that the economic development of Iraq was shaped by the rise in oil revenue, the war between Iran and Iraq, and the invasion of Kuwait and its aftermath. The discussion begins with the burst of Iraq's oil industry and the development policies under the monarchy. Subsequent chapters highlight development planning during the first ten years of the republic, the development plans of the ruling Baath party, the distructive consequences of the Iran-Iraq war and the recent invasion of Kuwait, and the future of the Iraqi economy to the year 2010. This in-depth examination puts this subject into a manageable context for students of the Middle East, multinational oil, Third World development, and international relations.

Since the Maastricht Treaty of December, 1991, Europe has experienced rising nationalism and regionalism - both centrifugal effects working against union - and above all scepticism toward the Union concept itself. As certain of the member states fragment, or turn inward, a turning-point in history has been reached: it is the end of the post-War Europe. As such, is it even necessary for Europe to be united at all? Is the unification ideal too large a political concept, one that has been hot-housed and pushed ahead of economic conditions and realities? Is the ideal of European unification dying, and have the concepts enshrined in the Maastricht Treaty become museum pieces? These are among the incisive questions asked by writer-economist Noriko Hama, in Disintegrating Europe. Hama likens the situation to Wagner's cycle of operos, Der Ring, and wonders whether the European Union idea is as imperishable as the Europeans themselves maintain. When Wagner's hero Siegfried dies, the existing order dies with it in a Gotterdammerung, a "twilight of the gods" - and Hama argues that the flames that are presently destroying the Union's equivalent of Siegfried's hall may well be destined to devour eventually the whole castle of the European Valhalla itself. This approach is dramatic, readable, and compelling, and represents the first time that so qualified an economic commentator has attempted a 'big picture' view of the future of the European unification project. Predicting that the crumbling cornerstone of unity makes the present course untenable, the author provides an alternative vision for 21st Century Europe resting on the market mechanism as seen in East Asia. This, she argues, would serve asan 'engine of growth' to replace the now-faltering engine of the newly-united Germany, which instead will continue to wrestle with its deflationary absorption of East Germany.

This book focuses on the competitive situation and policy outlook of China's provincial economy in the 13th five-year period. It begins with a general evaluation report on the country's provincial comprehensive Economic Competitiveness, followed by analyses at the international, national and regional levels, industrial and enterprise levels. On the basis of domestic and international research findings, it further enriches our understanding of provincial competitiveness, analyzes the domestic and international situation, explores new changes, new norms, new situations and new challenges concerning China's provincial economy in the past few years, reveals the characteristics and relative differences of different types, defines their internal competitive strengths and weaknesses, and provides valuable theoretical content to guide decision-making.

The decade of the 1990s has opened on a note of major change, with events in the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, and South Africa moving at an astonishing pace, both on the political and economic fronts. These changes have brought into focus vital issues of political economy, a subject that this collection of essays carefully examines. Written for readers with or without a background in economics, the essays provide a perspective on economic systems, the underlying issues involved in creating an economic constitution, and the choices a society makes in designing an economy. Economists from Australia, Canada, France, the Netherlands, and the United States offer a stimulating variety of ideological and methodological perspectives. The collection begins with an introduction that reviews basic concepts of economic systems, including goals, the role of government, and efficiency and equity. The three essays that comprise Part I discuss basic issues in economic systems, and address the question of efficiency and equity in a free market from various ideological perspectives. Part II provides three proposals for reforming economic systems, including discussions of planning in a decentralized society and a highly interventionist economic and social system. The work concludes with three essays that draw historical and international comparisons between economic systems, and contrast the economic policies and performances of several Western countries and Japan. Although the contributors are professional economists, and include a Nobel Prize winner and the former president of the American Economic Association, their essays are written in a nontechnical language that will allow readers without an economic background to follow their arguments. This unique collection of essays will be a valuable supplement to courses in current economic problems, comparative economic systems, and development economics, as well as a useful resource for both public and academic libraries.

The basic functions of banking--lending, deposit taking, and making payments--are constant. What changes are the forms banking takes in response to increases in competition, globalizaion, new laws, and emerging technologies. Among the most visible of these changes will be an increase in the consolidation and globalization of banking in the world's major trading countries. Now, prestigious academics and practitioners, including regulators from around the world, join Benton E. Gup in exploring these coming changes--and by doing so, define a global perspective on banking's future. They find that the consolidation of banking will persist on a global scale. Electronic banking in all its forms will increase in importance, and banking in mature economies will be even more different from what it is now in developing economies. While focusing on the financial system in the United States, Gup's panel of contributors also explores financial systems in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere. Like Gup, they predict that a small handful of very large banks will control a disproportionate share of bank assets. Their views provide an unusual survey of current thinking in the domains of banking and finance, and an important source of current information, background, and foresights for banking and finance practitioners, students, and academics.