Although all advanced industrial societies have urban and regional developmentpolicies, such policy in the United States historically has taken on a very distinct form. Compared with the more top-down, centrally orchestrated approaches of Western European countries, US cities and, to a lesser degree, states, take the lead, spurred on by developers and those with interest in rent. This bottom-up policy creates conflict as one city battles with another for new investments and as real estate developers fight over the spoils, resulting in highly contentious politics. In The Politics of Urban and Regional Development and the American Exception, Cox addresses the question of why US policy is so unique. In doing so, he illustrates the essential characteristics of American regional development through a series of case studies including housing politics in Silicon Valley; the history of the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport; and a major redevelopment project that was rebuffed in Columbus, Ohio. Cox contrasts these examples with Western Europe's tradition of centralized governmental involvement and stronger labor movements that historically have been more concerned with creating what he calls "the good geography" than profits for developers, whatever the shortfalls in policy outcomes might be. The differences illuminate the peculiar nature of political engagement and local competition in shaping the way US urban development has evolved.

This report is a partial result of the China's Quarterly Macroeconometric Model (CQMM), a project developed and maintained by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. The CMR is one of the Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China, focusing on China's economic forecast and macroeconomic policy analysis. The CMR started to develop the CQMM for purpose of short-term forecasting, policy analysis, and simulation in 2005. Based on the CQMM, the CMR and its partners hold press conferences to release forecasts for China' major macroeconomic variables. Since July, 2006, twenty-two quarterly reports on China's macroeconomic outlook have been presented and eleventh annual reports have been published. This 23rd quarterly report is to be presented at the Forum on China's Macroeconomic Outlook and Press Conference of CQMM on October 27, 2017. This conference is jointly held at Oxford University by Oxford Prospects and Global Development Centre, University of Oxford, Center for Macroeconomic Research at Xiamen University, and Economic Information Daily at Xinhua News Agency.

For undergraduate and graduate courses in Business Forecasting. Written in a simple, straightforward style, Business Forecasting 9/e presents basic statistical techniques using practical business examples to teach students how to predict long-term forecasts.

American agricultural production is destined to end, argues Steven Blank, but this should be no cause for alarm. In this work, he shows that the changes leading to the end of American agricultural production are part of a natural process that is making us all better off. Beginning with broad observations from history and the current status of agriculture around the world, Blank explores how the decisions of individuals combine to make the end of American agricultural production predictable and rational. The inevitable creeping of international economic development is shown to be the sum of individual struggles facing producers across America and around the world. Also, decisions regarding operating an agricultural business derive from many interrelated peculiarities of the industry, both in America and elsewhere. The story is fascinating in its global scope and is relevant to everyone because the simple economic decision-making processes involved will be repeated in the story of other industries.

The book is a dialogue between a money manager and a young man who asks whether or not he should invest. Their conversation explores How for money and not-for-money investment differ; How accounting and economic assets compare with social and natural assets; How time is central to all of investment, building capabilities in the present which can deliver resources in the future; How banks collectively create and destroy money; How the yield curve shows the market interest rates for financial assets of different durations; How competitive advantage is important in determining the returns achieved on real assets; How fundamental value differs from price, or what someone is prepared to pay; How fundamental analysis and technical analysis of price data provide insights into risk; How mean-variance analysis of price data is the conventional approach to risk; How the economic ecosystem creates prices How capitalism may be a lousy system and yet the best available as it adapts continuously to align money prices and human values. The book is for people who want to know how investment works and how they can invest their savings. I think of it as an amalgam of an everyman's guide to business and economics, an introduction to investment, and an apology for 'capitalism'. Ben Paton

Western and Central Europe contains both strong established and new, emerging markets for US and European mobile communications companies. This book is a comprehensive analysis of the current status and future integration prospects in these markets, with clear, in-depth explanations of standards, regulations and technology. Markets are identified and compared, showing where future growth will happen and when.

The globalization of business and the ubiquity of available data in the information age are the driving forces behind the increasing importance of economic forecasting. In order to remain competitive, private and public organizations alike must employ forecasting techniques effectively. Hoshmand emphasizes the application and practical use of such techniques rather than their theoretical grounding. Decision makers and students who have a solid background in economics and statistics will find this book eminently useful. After discussing the role of forecasting in business decisions, the author moves on to smoothing techniques, regression models, and the advanced time series models of Box-Jenkins. Of particular help to practitioners is the concluding chapter on how to communicate forecasts to management.

Forecasting professionals and researchers will benefit greatly from the information presented by Hoshmand, especially in their role as advisors to management. Few forecasters and even fewer managers will have had the luxury to remain fully informed of the new developments in this rapidly expanding field. Meanwhile, the importance of accurate forecasting to every realm of corporate strategy--production, inventory, purchasing, accounting, marketing, finance, and acquisitions decisions, to name a few--has increased exponentially due to the proliferation of data, the heating up of global competition, and the softening of many markets. No one today can afford to remain ignorant of the importance of economic forecasting for business decisions.

During the 1990s Francis Fukuyama announced the end of history. The 2000s showed how it is an illusion to imagine a peaceful world without conflict. In this book the authors explore how six major constraints are set to fix the trajectory of the global economy. Three of them are new: the aging population, the failure of technical progress, and the scarcity of savings. The other three have been at work for some time: the explosion of inequality, the mass transfer of activities from one end of the world to the other, and the limitless financialization of economy. They suggest that like seismic activity which depends on pressure between tectonic plates, the political and social tensions will be exacerbated in the coming years by these major forces. They propose that authorities will be incapable of preventing neither the date nor the intensity of the coming earthquakes, and ask the question: Are we able to cope with these future shocks and the violence they are sure to cause?

In the future, some regions of the world will probably experience vigorous economic growth, while others struggle to survive. Unless the United States recognizes these probabilities and the implications of them, standards of living in this country will continue to decline. This is the warning Hazel Johnson gives in this book--an analysis of global economic trends and capital flows that reveals strong regional patterns of development. The book was written when the appeal of globalization was almost irresistible: communism was being overthrown and global market economies seemed inevitable. But Johnson detected factors that would prevent globalization, for example: a closed Japanese society that focused on winning the economic war, a Germany that would overextend itself to achieve reunification, and a Latin America whose problems would be felt more by the United States than by any other developed country. Analysts are only now beginning to face these realities. Most notably, Lester Thurow ("Head to Head," 1992) has acknowledged all these factors and concludes (subsequent to the publication of Johnson's book) that regional trading blocks will, in fact, emerge.

Johnson's volume is unique in viewing the world in its entirety rather than treating one country or region at a time, and in presenting events in a historical context to explain current and probable future economic relationships among countries. The work is compelling because it dares to examine the economic behavior of countries with a critical rather than a diplomatic eye. It should be of interest to scholars and policymakers in international finance and trade, as well as those studying development and international economics.

This book examines the U.S economy from 1967 to 2011 and utilizes a new method to predict the future of the economy as far ahead as 2030. This new method uses population subgroup data. Variables used in the cross-sectional matrix include ethnicity, sex, age, and average personal income of those having personal income. The mathematical basis, the data used, and the results are all presented in graphic form. The estimates are compared to National Bureau of Economic Research Dating Committee data. Projections using estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Census are used to further project personal income, personal income annual change, and disposable personal income to 2030. The book concludes that the New Energy Movement and their development of non-polluting energy and electricity production methods that do not consume uranium, radioactive material, or fossil fuels. Therefore, large amounts of money should be invested in these devices, their development, and implementation.

This book focuses on the competitive situation and policy outlook of China's provincial economy in the 13th five-year period. It begins with a general evaluation report on the country's provincial comprehensive Economic Competitiveness, followed by analyses at the international, national and regional levels, industrial and enterprise levels. On the basis of domestic and international research findings, it further enriches our understanding of provincial competitiveness, analyzes the domestic and international situation, explores new changes, new norms, new situations and new challenges concerning China's provincial economy in the past few years, reveals the characteristics and relative differences of different types, defines their internal competitive strengths and weaknesses, and provides valuable theoretical content to guide decision-making.

As Singapore enters its 50th year of independence, it is a time for introspection to look back at the successes and challenges of the past, but is also a crucial time to consider what the future holds for the nation.Singapore 2065: Leading Insights on Economy and Environment from 50 Singapore Icons and Beyond is one such key contribution to the endeavour of thinking about what lies ahead. While many forthcoming projects and books take a more retrospective approach reflecting upon Singapore's past, this book adopts a forward-looking perspective, contemplating Singapore's distant future, which is important for posterity. This book is a collection of key insights from 50 iconic individuals of Singapore and beyond, and contains reasoned arguments, speculations and visionary expectations of Singapore's future in 50 years' time.The book discusses the distant future of Singapore's economy and the environment. What will Singapore's economic and environment landscape be like 50 years from now? Are there trends or scenarios common to the various discussions contained in this book? If there are, how big would be the impact of some of these trends? What and how should the government respond to these projections, expectations and informed visions of tomorrow? In sum, what would Singapore's economy and environment be like in 2065? The book explores a range of possible answers to these questions and more.Not only will the generations of today be able to gain much insight into Singapore's future by reading this book, but future generations, specifically 100 years after Singapore's independence, will be able to understand and affirm what and how today's generations think about their time. The book is a key contribution to envisioning Singapore's future, which is also vital for understanding what shapes Singapore's landscape today.

Two important new developments have occurred that have significant impact on the evolution of econometrics, namely, the end of the Cold War and the emergence of the information revolution in nearly all economies of the world.

The information revolution has had significant effect on data flows, making them much more timely, accessible, and descriptive of more parts of the economy. At the same time, it has changed the industrial structure of many economies, giving rise to increasing importance of the tertiary sectors (e.g. services). The new generation of hardware and software enables econometricians to handle larger and more complex problems, especially those that are data intensive and computer intrusive.

These major events require reconsideration and redrafting of some of the materials of the original edition.

The present volume retains the original structure of "Lectures on Microeconomic Theory" and takes up principles of constructing dynamic macroeconometric models and their use in economic analyses and forecasting, while introducing many updates, revisions and extensions. The description of the econometric methodology has been limited to specific applications of time series analysis, and the title has been changed to "Principles of Macroeconometric Modeling."

The first four chapters discuss the principles of specifying equations of structural macromodels, covering both developed marked economies, transition economies and world-wide models. The remaining chapters cover some major issues in the use of macromodels. The point of departure is model simulation, especially of the prevailing non-linear models, which is followed by model validation. The analysis of model dynamics covers economic fluctuations and the relevant implications of non-stationarity. The use of macromodels in policy analysis is presented next; it includes multiplier analysis and scenario simulations. The monograph ends up with forecasting being a special case of simulation analysis.

The economy of Iraq has fluctuated wildly since the 1950s. It has been affected by changes in governments, by wars, and by general instability. This book analyzes a complex subject and is especially timely at this critical juncture in the history of Iraq, the Middle East, and international relations. Abbas Alnasrawi traces the growth of the Iraqi economy since 1950, assesses its present state of crisis and underdevelopment, and explores its prospects for recovery. Alnasrawi contends that the economic development of Iraq was shaped by the rise in oil revenue, the war between Iran and Iraq, and the invasion of Kuwait and its aftermath. The discussion begins with the burst of Iraq's oil industry and the development policies under the monarchy. Subsequent chapters highlight development planning during the first ten years of the republic, the development plans of the ruling Baath party, the distructive consequences of the Iran-Iraq war and the recent invasion of Kuwait, and the future of the Iraqi economy to the year 2010. This in-depth examination puts this subject into a manageable context for students of the Middle East, multinational oil, Third World development, and international relations.

Since the Maastricht Treaty of December, 1991, Europe has experienced rising nationalism and regionalism - both centrifugal effects working against union - and above all scepticism toward the Union concept itself. As certain of the member states fragment, or turn inward, a turning-point in history has been reached: it is the end of the post-War Europe. As such, is it even necessary for Europe to be united at all? Is the unification ideal too large a political concept, one that has been hot-housed and pushed ahead of economic conditions and realities? Is the ideal of European unification dying, and have the concepts enshrined in the Maastricht Treaty become museum pieces? These are among the incisive questions asked by writer-economist Noriko Hama, in Disintegrating Europe. Hama likens the situation to Wagner's cycle of operos, Der Ring, and wonders whether the European Union idea is as imperishable as the Europeans themselves maintain. When Wagner's hero Siegfried dies, the existing order dies with it in a Gotterdammerung, a "twilight of the gods" - and Hama argues that the flames that are presently destroying the Union's equivalent of Siegfried's hall may well be destined to devour eventually the whole castle of the European Valhalla itself. This approach is dramatic, readable, and compelling, and represents the first time that so qualified an economic commentator has attempted a 'big picture' view of the future of the European unification project. Predicting that the crumbling cornerstone of unity makes the present course untenable, the author provides an alternative vision for 21st Century Europe resting on the market mechanism as seen in East Asia. This, she argues, would serve asan 'engine of growth' to replace the now-faltering engine of the newly-united Germany, which instead will continue to wrestle with its deflationary absorption of East Germany.

The decade of the 1990s has opened on a note of major change, with events in the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, and South Africa moving at an astonishing pace, both on the political and economic fronts. These changes have brought into focus vital issues of political economy, a subject that this collection of essays carefully examines. Written for readers with or without a background in economics, the essays provide a perspective on economic systems, the underlying issues involved in creating an economic constitution, and the choices a society makes in designing an economy. Economists from Australia, Canada, France, the Netherlands, and the United States offer a stimulating variety of ideological and methodological perspectives. The collection begins with an introduction that reviews basic concepts of economic systems, including goals, the role of government, and efficiency and equity. The three essays that comprise Part I discuss basic issues in economic systems, and address the question of efficiency and equity in a free market from various ideological perspectives. Part II provides three proposals for reforming economic systems, including discussions of planning in a decentralized society and a highly interventionist economic and social system. The work concludes with three essays that draw historical and international comparisons between economic systems, and contrast the economic policies and performances of several Western countries and Japan. Although the contributors are professional economists, and include a Nobel Prize winner and the former president of the American Economic Association, their essays are written in a nontechnical language that will allow readers without an economic background to follow their arguments. This unique collection of essays will be a valuable supplement to courses in current economic problems, comparative economic systems, and development economics, as well as a useful resource for both public and academic libraries.

The basic functions of banking--lending, deposit taking, and making payments--are constant. What changes are the forms banking takes in response to increases in competition, globalizaion, new laws, and emerging technologies. Among the most visible of these changes will be an increase in the consolidation and globalization of banking in the world's major trading countries. Now, prestigious academics and practitioners, including regulators from around the world, join Benton E. Gup in exploring these coming changes--and by doing so, define a global perspective on banking's future. They find that the consolidation of banking will persist on a global scale. Electronic banking in all its forms will increase in importance, and banking in mature economies will be even more different from what it is now in developing economies. While focusing on the financial system in the United States, Gup's panel of contributors also explores financial systems in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere. Like Gup, they predict that a small handful of very large banks will control a disproportionate share of bank assets. Their views provide an unusual survey of current thinking in the domains of banking and finance, and an important source of current information, background, and foresights for banking and finance practitioners, students, and academics.

Hall's excellent survey of business cycles is concise, lucid, and up-to-date discussing not only early theories of the business cycle and Keynesian and monetarist models, but also the rational expectationist and new Keynesian models along with actual business cycles. . . . Strengths of the book include an excellent bibliography and Hall's insightful history of business cycles from the panic of 1907 to the long cyclical expansion beginning in late 1982. "Choice"

Intended as a primary text for upper-level undergraduate and graduate courses in business cycles and economic fluctuations, this book treats the nature and causes of business cycles. In contrast to previous works on the subject, which have tended to focus on basic macroeconomic models and intermediate level theory, "Business CycleS" offers both a broader scope and more in-depth coverage, concentrating on modern theories of the business cycle, data analysis, and recent and historical episodes of economic fluctuation. The author amplifies and combines the various theories that comprise the modern view of business cycles and develops a systematic rationale for economic fluctuations that integrates the key concept of economic shocks. Hall demonstrates that an economy grows over time but receives periodic shocks--such as oil price increases or monetary instability--which generate fluctuations. In addition to examining the nature of shocks that cause recessions and expansions, Hall suggests ways to forcast these cycles.

Hall begins with a general overview of economic cycles and economic indicators and goes on to review the historical explanations for economic fluctuations that form the foundation for more modern theories. The contemporary theories of fluctuations--Keynesian, and real business cycles--receive extended treatment. Each theory is discussed in detail in a separate chapter that includes relevant empirical data. Hall then describes the nature and causes of several business cycles during the twentieth century, enabling the reader to see how the various alternative models of cycles explain actual phenomena over time. Finally, he examines some macroeconomic puzzles in the study of cycles and concludes with some observations about the performance of macroeconomic forecasting methods.

This study addresses the two major challenges facing the global economy: globalization and the European structural crisis. In addition, it takes a closer look at the impact of this on the Italian economy. The findings reflect on the issue of long term growth and suggest ways in which to create sustainable financial conditions for the future.

This book extends Thirlwall's original model and adapts its implications to the current problems of the developed and emerging economies. In this context, this book combines theoretical models and empirical applications to unveil new results consistent with the balance of payments constrained growth. The book provides an alternative to orthodox growth theory which neglects the importance of the balance of payments as a constraint to growth.

Why do markets exist? How are they maintained? What are market systems and how are they formed? This book addresses these fundamental questions and challenges the traditional view that markets and market systems are 'natural', asserting instead that they are ideologically coloured and of dubious scientific value.

This book details very simply and for even the most novice of potential analysts not only how to perform analytics which describe what is happening, predict what is going to happen, and optimize responses, but also places these analytics in the context of proactive strategy development.