"It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, "Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things," provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape--but Fair doesn't stop there.
Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well--including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read "Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things" and find out
As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.

Conventional wisdom once told us big companies are unbeatable... and eat smaller competitors for breakfast.

Not anymore. These days It's Not the Big that Eat the Small... It's the FAST that Eat the Slow!

Jason Jennings and Laurence Haughton discovered what separates today's icons of speed from everybody else.

They asked questions like:

• What is the difference between speed and haste?
• Where does business go to spot trends before the competition?
• How can leaders help people stop dreading high velocity and rediscover the thrill of deciding, acting and staying fast?

And studied the world's fastest companies like:

• H&M Europe's fast fashion phenomenon now poised to threaten apparel stores in America.
• AOL who gulped down Netscape and Time Warner in record time.
• Charles Schwab the new dominant name in discount and on-line financial services.

The results are in this sensational book... a national bestseller, translated all over the globe and universally praised.

Would you like to make speed a competitive tool in your business? Here's your roadmap!

The guru of high technology and a man whose "slightest utterance can move stocks" (The Wall Street Journal) presents a clear, cogent vision of the future of telecommunications; what it will mean in our everyday lives; and how savvy investors can get on the bandwagon today.

With his books (including the groundbreaking Microcosm), top-selling newsletter, testimony before Congress, and annual Telecosm conferences, George Gilder has become the premier prophet of bandwidth and connectivity. In this revised version of Telecosm, Gilder takes technology buffs and investors on a mind-bending tour inside the worldwide webs of glass and light, explaining how fiber optics and wireless breakthroughs are pushing new technologies and new companies to the fore.

This book, and its companion volume in the Econometric Society Monographs series (ESM number 32), present a collection of papers by Clive W. J. Granger. His contributions to economics and econometrics, many of them seminal, span more than four decades and touch on all aspects of time series analysis. The papers assembled in this volume explore topics in causality, integration and cointegration, and long memory. Those in the companion volume investigate themes in causality, integration and cointegration, and long memory. The two volumes contain the original articles as well as an introduction written by the editors.

This book, and its companion volume, present a collection of papers by Clive W.J. Granger. His contributions to economics and econometrics, many of them seminal, span more than four decades and touch on all aspects of time series analysis. The papers assembled in this volume explore topics in causality, integration and cointegration, and long memory. Those in the companion volume investigate themes in causality, integration and cointegration, and long memory. The two volumes contain the original articles as well as an introduction written by the editors.

Volume II provides an in-depth analysis of important specific issues, detailed discussion of the independence of the Bank of Israel, and an econometric study of the central banks policies. This volume also includes a historical account of the liberalization of Israel's foreign-exchange market and various issues related to the banking system, such as concentration, competition, and especially banking supervision. In one of the articles in this volume, based on a series of interviews, the top officials of the Bank of Israel present their view on the Banks policies in the various periods.

"Economic Forecasting" deals with macroeconomic forecasts from a global point of view. The focus is first on a large range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A synthetic overview of economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided.

Applied Econometrics: A Practical Guide is an extremely user-friendly and application-focused book on econometrics. Unlike many econometrics textbooks which are heavily theoretical on abstractions, this book is perfect for beginners and promises simplicity and practicality to the understanding of econometric models. Written in an easy-to-read manner, the book begins with hypothesis testing and moves forth to simple and multiple regression models. It also includes advanced topics: Endogeneity and Two-stage Least Squares Simultaneous Equations Models Panel Data Models Qualitative and Limited Dependent Variable Models Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Models Autocorrelation and ARCH/GARCH Models Unit Root and Cointegration The book also illustrates the use of computer software (EViews, SAS and R) for economic estimating and modeling. Its practical applications make the book an instrumental, go-to guide for solid foundation in the fundamentals of econometrics. In addition, this book includes excerpts from relevant articles published in top-tier academic journals. This integration of published articles helps the readers to understand how econometric models are applied to real-world use cases.

The material contained in this book originated in interrogations about modern practice in time series analysis. * Why do we use models optimized with respect to one-step ahead foreca- ing performances for applications involving multi-step ahead forecasts? * Why do we infer 'long-term' properties (unit-roots) of an unknown process from statistics essentially based on short-term one-step ahead forecasting performances of particular time series models? * Are we able to detect turning-points of trend components earlier than with traditional signal extraction procedures? The link between 'signal extraction' and the first two questions above is not immediate at first sight. Signal extraction problems are often solved by su- ably designed symmetric filters. Towards the boundaries (t = 1 or t = N) of a time series a particular symmetric filter must be approximated by asymm- ric filters. The time series literature proposes an intuitively straightforward solution for solving this problem: * Stretch the observed time series by forecasts generated by a model. * Apply the symmetric filter to the extended time series. This approach is called 'model-based'. Obviously, the forecast-horizon grows with the length of the symmetric filter. Model-identification and estimation of unknown parameters are then related to the above first two questions. One may further ask, if this approximation problem and the way it is solved by model-based approaches are important topics for practical purposes? Consider some 'prominent' estimation problems: * The determination of the seasonally adjusted actual unemployment rate.

This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.

China is historically famous for its high demographic dividend and its huge working population, and this has driven tremendous economic growth over the past few decades. However, that population has begun to shrink and the Lewis turning point whereby surplus rural population has been absorbed into manufacturing is also approaching, leading to great change in the Chinese labor market. Will this negatively affect China's economic growth? Can the "Middle-Income Trap" be avoided? What reforms should be made on the labor supply side? This book tackles these key questions. This book is a collection of 14 papers presenting the author's observations, analysis, and opinions of China's long-term economic development from the demographic perspective, while analysing real economic problems from the past and including policy recommendations. It provides a critical reference for scholars and students interested in Chinese economic development and demographic perspectives on economic development.

This book concentrates on the five biggest recessions in the twentieth century. It focuses on the UK, but makes numerous comparisons to recessions in other countries. Two major recessions are identified in the interwar period; three more in the years 1973-1995. The main conclusion reached is that major recessions reflect abrupt fallings off in demand not supply, and can be explained by identifiable demand shocks. The concluding chapter offers advice on how to avoid future severe recessions: a combination of prudent policy-making beforehand and special measures in the downturn and recovery.

Summarizes the latest developments and techniques in the field and highlights areas such as sample surveys, nonparametric analysis, hypothesis testing, time series analysis, Bayesian inference, and distribution theory for current applications in statistics, economics, medicine, biology, engineering, sociology, psychology, and information technology. Containing more than 800 contemporary references to facilitate further study, the Handbook of Applied Econometrics and Statistical Inference is an in-depth guide for applied statisticians, econometricians, economists, sociologists, psychologists, data analysts, biometricians, medical researchers, and upper-level undergraduate and graduate-level students in these disciplines.

In 1950 the world population was 2.5 billion; fifty years later there are over 6 billion people. The demographic of this explosion has essentially occurred in the developing areas of the world. The key to understanding many contemporary development problems that have arisen from this rapid growth is in understanding the relationships between population and the economy.
This book offers an analysis of such relationships, encompassing a review of the major positions in the academic debate.
Population, Economic Growth and Agriculture in Less Developed Countries will serve as a useful introduction and reference tool for students, academics and all with an interest in the population debate and economics.

eBook available with sample pages: 0203103106

We live in a world where capital is free to move. Increasingly this determines the pattern of international growth. Savings are invested in the country yielding the highest return, thus adding to its stock of capital. This development is espe- cially true of common markets such as the European Union, which are based on free trade and financial openness. The present monograph deals with internatio- nal growth, featuring the dynamics of foreign debt and domestic capital. I had many helpful talks with my colleagues at Hamburg: Michael Schmid (now at Bamberg), Franco Reither, Wolf Schlifer, Thomas Straubhaar and Johannes Hackmann. In addition, Michael Brauninger and Philipp Lichtenauer carefully discussed with me all parts of the manuscript. Last but not least, Doris Ehrich did the secretarial work as excellently as ever. I wish to thank all of them. Contents INTRODUCTION 3 BRIEF SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE 9 SMALL OPEN ECONOMY 15 CHAPTER I. 1. Solow Model 15 1.1. Foreign Assets 15 1.1.1. Steady State 15 Process of Adjustment 25 1.1.2.

In the completely revised second edition of this highly praised book, Susumu Yabuki, one of Japan's leading China experts, and Stephen M. Harner, A Shanghai-based investment banker, present a comprehensive and accessible analysis of China's political economy.The authors provide dozens of easy-to-grasp and up-to-date graphs, charts, tables, and maps to illustrate the reality of China, as they explain and comment on political, economic, financial and trade trends.Placing issues in historical perspective, and with a view to trends into the twenty-first century, the authors survey the realities of China's area and population, agriculture, energy needs, pollution, industrial structure, township and village enterprises, state-owned enterprise reform, unemployment, economic regions, foreign investment, state finances, fiscal and monetary policy, China's financial institutions, foreign financial institutions in China, stock markets, international finance, balance of payments and exchange rate policy, corporate finance, the role of Shanghai, government institution reform, foreign trade, the roles of Hong Kong and Taiwan, U.S.-China relations, and Japan-China relations.Useful as an introduction to China's economics, finance, and politics for students, and as a desktop reference volume for corporations, organizations, and individuals considering doing business in China, this unique study fills a genuine gap in the literature.

1. Introduction and overview Until still few years ago, economic growth theory (going back to Solow, 1956; for an introduction cf. Burmeister and Dobell, 1970) predicted convergence of both growth rates and level of per capita income of economies which share identical preferences, technologies and same population growth rates, independently of initial conditions. Countries with a low capital stock grow faster than those with a higher capital stock, until, in the long-run, they all converge to a common constant growth rate. This prediction is due to the way how growth is "explained" in models of this kind. Growth of output per capita resulted, in the simplest model, from an exogenous growth oflabour productivity (see e. g. Sala-i-Martin, 1990; Grossman and Helpman, 1991a, ch. 2). Si 1ce this increase of productivity is exogenously given, the model itselfdoes not give any explanation ofits source. The prediction ofconvergence ofgrowth rates, itself, is very doubtful and observations show, that on an international level either convergence is not given at all, or that it takes a very long time. The literature of the "new" theory of growth provides a rich variety of models whose theoretical implications range from divergence to convergence and thus offers much better working tools in order to analyze real world observations. These models (starting with Romer, 1986 and Lucas, 1988) explain growth of GNP or per capita income from within the model by includingexternal effects such as a public stock ofknowledge capital (e. g.

Smart Economic Decision-Making in a Complex World is a fresh and reality-based perspective on decision-making with significant implications for analysis, self-understanding and policy. The book examines the conditions under which smart people generate outcomes that improve their place of work, their household and society. Within this work, the curious reader will find interesting open questions on many fascinating areas of current economic debate, including, the role of realistic assumptions robust model building, understanding how and when non-neoclassical behavior is best practice, why the assumption of smart decision-makers is best to understand and explain our economies and societies, and under what conditions individuals can make the best possible choices for themselves and society at large. Additional sections cover when and how efficiency is achieved, why inefficiencies can persist, when and how consumer welfare is maximized, and what benchmarks should be used to determine efficiency and rationality.

A critical examination of The prevailing orthodoxy according to which all macroeconomic theory should be reducible to microeconomics. The book provides a mathematical extension of the Lucas theory to allow for the effects of creation of knowledge upon economic development so as to improve the prediction of business cycle data.

Many models in this volume can be used in solving portfolio problems, in assessing forecasts, in understanding the possible effects of shocks and disturbances.

A discussion of various aspects of dynamic behavior of empirical macroeconomic, and in particular, macroeconometric models, is presented in this book. The book addresses in depth several theoretical and practical aspects concerning the modeling and analysis of long-run equilibrium behavior, adjustment dynamics and stability. Tools are developed to identify and interpret the main determinants of the dynamics of models. The tools involve, among others, error-correction mechanisms, eigenvalue analysis, feedback closure rules, graph theory, learning behavior, steady-state analysis, and stochastic simulation. Their usefulness is demonstrated by interesting applications to a number of well-known national and multi-national models.

Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. How had our models so utterly failed us? Virtually every day, we make wagers on the future - but, even when we're not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control, the maps by which we are steering are often out-of-date. The Map and the Territory is an important attempt to update our forecasting conceptual grid using twenty-first-century technologies, offering a lucid and empirical grounding in what we can know about economic forecasting and what we can't.

Fad-Free Strategy provides a ground-breaking approach to making better business strategy decisions: more efficient, open to out-of-the-box opportunities and evidence-based. Most strategy books focus on Grand Strategy, the process that leads to high-level recommendations or, more accurately, hypotheses about where and how to compete. While this book briefly covers critical Grand Strategy practices, it deep dives into Operational Strategy, the process of validation, adaptation and possible rejection of those hypotheses. Operational Strategy is based on an in-depth understanding of customer preferences and anticipating the choices they make. Those choices rather than managers' ambitions determine whether a strategy will generate the aspired financial results. The book explains, by means of detailed real-world cases across industries, how to generate validated solutions to any strategic problem such as: how to enter successfully into new markets, either as an innovator or as a latecomer? How to defend one's position against aggressive new entrants? Or how to sustain margins when price is the only thing customers seem to care about? This remarkable book contains expert advice from accomplished strategic advisors and thought leaders Daniel Deneffe and Herman Vantrappen. Fad Free Strategy will be a useful tool for smart business executives at mainstream companies who are disappointed with strategy fads and simplistic solutions based on cherry-picked, anecdotal evidence from today's hero companies. It will also appeal to economics faculty members teaching graduate courses in business strategy who are looking for an economics-based strategy textbook that is both rigorous and comprehensive. The book's core ideas have been taught successfully in continuing and executive education programs at Harvard University and Hult International Business School.

Global construction data is vital for contractors, governments, international organisations, policy makers, academic researchers and statisticians. As the global population of the world expands, the sustainability of the built environment raises the political agenda and the need to manage infrastructure and buildings in both urban and rural contexts becomes ever more pressing. How much more can the built environment grow and how can it be managed sustainably? This edited volume addresses how we can find a possible way through the inconsistencies between national construction data sets to devise a consistent approach to national construction data to further the global sustainability agenda and inform policy making. This search begins in Part I, which looks at the methods and definitions used in construction statistics in different countries. Part II considers examples of different types of construction data from the cost of materials, measuring work on high rise buildings and existing stock. In Part III, the authors consider construction data internationally, beginning with the problem of comparing data in different countries using exchange rates and purchasing power parities (PPPs), comparing innovation processes in different countries and looking at the provision of building design internationally. In Part IV, the international theme is continued by comparing accounting practices and company performance in different countries and concludes with an international comparison of construction industries. This book raises awareness of the significance of the construction industry globally and the importance of data to measure it. It informs the discussion of the best ways of handling the consequences of policies affecting the built environment and the effect of the built environment on the rest of the economy and society. It is essential reading for international economists, construction industry consultants, policy makers, construction statisticians and academics.

Alexa is Stealing Your Job is a guided tour of where the world has been with artificial intelligence and how it affects the future of work. Artificial intelligence is taking over. Ask Alexa to call a client or confirm your schedule for the day and she does just that immediately. Ask her a question, give her a command, or just share a joke together, and she becomes your new best employee. A conversation with Alexa can nix the need for millions of front-line workers. Today's companies must keep up with artificial intelligence to keep their customers, and today's employees must find new ways to provide value to their companies if they want to keep their job. Author and speaker Rhonda Scharf shows readers how a willingness to adapt to the new normal keeps both businesses and their employees relevant in these changing times. Alexa Is Stealing Your Job reveals what the future entails by diving into the world of AI and exploring how it impacts lives, careers, and the future.