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Books > Business & Economics > Economics > Econometrics
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Economic Forecasting (Hardcover)
Loot Price: R1,972
Discovery Miles 19 720
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Economic Forecasting (Hardcover)
Expected to ship within 10 - 15 working days
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Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to
best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating
processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host
of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget
deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and
stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a
comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits
of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text
approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision
theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications
of this approach for how we understand variable selection,
estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how
we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian
methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge
techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts.
The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of
a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts
in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables.
The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model
uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance.
* Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the
strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods*
Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation
perspective* Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for
generating density forecasts* Discusses model selection methods as
well as forecast combinations* Covers a large range of nonlinear
prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold
autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility* Features
numerous empirical examples* Examines the latest advances in
forecast evaluation* Essential for practitioners and students alike
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