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Books > Business & Economics > Economics > Economic forecasting
Developing Asia is forecast to expand by 5.9% in 2017 and 5.8% in
2018, a slight upgrade from projections in Asian Development
Outlook 2017. Growth prospects for developing Asia are looking up,
bolstered by a revival in world trade and strong momentum in the
People's Republic of China. Rebounds in international food and fuel
prices are gentler than expected, helping to contain consumer price
pressures. Inflation is likely to dip to 2.4% in 2017, or 0.1
percentage points off the 2016 rate, and pick up to 2.9% in 2018.
Risks to the outlook have become more balanced, as the advanced
economies have so far avoided sharp, unexpected changes to their
macroeconomic policies. Further, the fuel price rise is providing
fiscal relief to oil exporters but is measured enough not to
destabilize oil importers.
Countries regularly track gross domestic product (GDP) as an
indicator of their economic progress, but not wealth - the assets
such as infrastructure, forests, minerals, and human capital that
produce GDP. In contrast, corporations routinely report on both
their income and assets to assess their economic health and
prospects for the future. Wealth accounts allow countries to take
stock of their assets to monitor the sustainability of development,
an urgent concern today for all countries. The Changing Wealth of
Nations 2018: Building a Sustainable Future covers national wealth
for 141 countries over 20 years (1995-2014) as the sum of produced
capital, 19 types of natural capital, net foreign assets, and human
capital overall as well as by gender and type of employment. Great
progress has been made in estimating wealth since the fi rst
volume, Where Is the Wealth of Nations? Measuring Capital for the
21st Century, was published in 2006. New data substantially improve
estimates of natural capital, and, for the first time, human
capital is measured by using household surveys to estimate lifetime
earnings. The Changing Wealth of Nations 2018 begins with a review
of global and regional trends in wealth over the past two decades
and provides examples of how wealth accounts can be used for the
analysis of development patterns. Several chapters discuss the new
work on human capital and its application in development policy.
The book then tackles elements of natural capital that are not yet
fully incorporated in the wealth accounts: air pollution, marine
fisheries, and ecosystems. This book targets policy makers but will
engage anyone committed to building a sustainable future for the
planet.
This short primer distils Ruchir Sharma's decades of global
analytic experience into ten rules for identifying nations that are
poised to take off or crash. A wake-up call to economists who
failed to foresee every recent crisis, including the cataclysm of
2008, 10 Rules is full of insights on signs of political, economic,
and social change. Sharma explains, for example, why autocrats are
bad for the economy; robots are a blessing, not a curse; and
consumer prices don't tell you all you need to know about
inflation. He shows how currency crises begin with the flight of
knowledgeable locals, not evil foreigners; how debt crises start in
private companies, not government; and why the best news for any
country is none at all. Rethinking economics as a practical art, 10
Rules is a must-read for business, political and academic leaders
who want to understand the most important forces that shape a
nation's future.
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