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Books > Business & Economics > Economics > Economic forecasting
Broad beliefs about the economics of 'developing countries' and of the development process have changed considerably since the subject became of wide interest in the 1950s; due largely to changes in the world and in the application of economic policies within developing countries. Subjects such as environment, gender, poverty, famine and globalization have come to be of increasingly important public interest. The extreme divergence of experience among regions of the world has also made it more and more questionable whether it even makes sense to think of a single and distinctive 'economics of developing countries'. This textbook presents a concise and up-to-date examination of the field of development economics, bringing together historical perspectives, current issues and policy implications. Each chapter can be read as a stand-alone unit, or as part of the wider economic debates presented throughout the book.
"Great fortunes which have been created by bankers, merchants, and investors are the result of ignoring these monthly fluctuations in commodity and security prices, and of striving to anticipate and profit by the major movements coming every few years. These major movements can be foretold if one will spend the necessary time and money in studying fundamental conditions. Therefore a fortune is within the grasp of every reader of this book who has and uses the necessary figures." - From the Preface Among entrepreneurs and businessmen alike, Roger Babson is considered one of the foremost authorities in the field of business forecasting, and his philosophy and statistical expertise continue to influence the investment community today. A model of comparative statistical analysis, this classic text still holds remarkable value to beginning and experienced investors alike. It expertly encompass in an understandable and succinct manner an array of topics including: . Two Classes of Statistics, . Increase in Funds Invested According to Fundamental Trends, . Price Fluctuations and Purchasing Range and Commodity Market Since 1860, . The Law of Equal and Opposite Reaction, Theory of Babsonchart, . Wealth, New Building, Check Transactions, Failures, Labor Conditions . Banking, Foreign Trade and Exchange, Gold and Commodity Prices, . Effect of War on Business Conditions and much more. ALSO AVAILABLE FROM COSIMO CLASSICS: Babson's Instincts and Emotions: Should They Be Suppressed or Harnessed? and Business Fundamentals: How to Become a Successful Business Man. American entrepreneur, statistician, and author ROGER WARD BABSON (1875-1967) founded Massachusetts' Babson College, in 1919, and the state'sGravity Research Foundation in 1948. A prolific writer who explored a wide variety of topics; his books include Fundamentals of Prosperity, The Future of the Churches, Religion and Business, and Gravity: Our Enemy No. 1.
"The most thoroughgoing assault on the Maestro's legacy so
far."--Cecil Johnson, "Fort Worth Star-Telegram "(syndicated)""
"Here, finally, is the dark truth about Alan Greenspan. In this
chilling expose of one of the most powerful men of our time, Ravi
Batra reveals Greenspan for who he secretly is: An ideologue who
has waged war on the American Dream and imperiled the world
economy. "Greenspan's Fraud" is a terrifying book."--David
Callahan, author of "The Cheating Culture: Why More Americans Are
Doing Wrong to Get Ahead" "As always, his economic arguments are
expressed elegantly."--"Publishers Weekly" "[H]is economic insights
recommend this book to most public and academic
libraries."--Lawrence R. Maxted, "Library Journal"
The author of the bestseller "The Art of the Long View" forecasts the inevitable surprises that will shape the business world of tomorrow. The world we live in today is more volatile than ever. The security of free nations is threatened by rogue states, the global economy is in flux, and the rapid advance of technology forces constant reevaluation of our society. With so many powerful forces at work and seemingly unpredictable events occurring, to many the future seems dark, and its possibilities frightening. Peter Schwartz disagrees. A world-renowned visionary in the field of scenario planning, Schwartzas startlingaand accuratea predictions have been employed by government agencies and major corporations for more than twenty-five years. He argues that the future is foreseeable, and that by examining the dynamics at work today we can predict the ainevitable surprisesa of tomorrow. Timely and thought-provoking, "Inevitable Surprises" is a book that no one with an interest in businessaor the future of our societyacan afford to miss.
This book discusses business barometers used in the management of business and investment of money. It is a textbook on applied economics for merchants, bankers and investors. Neither this book nor any other can aid a banker, merchant or investor to become rich within a short time. Nobody knows or can know what conditions or prices are to exist within a few weeks or even months, and 95% of the men who endeavor to take advantage of these monthly movements never make much headway. These major movements can be foretold if one will spend the necessary time and money in studying fundamental conditions. Therefore, a fortune is within the grasp of every reader of this book who has and uses the necessary figures. Illustrated with many charts.
This book must be judged in the light of its limited objective. It is not the product of the study, either literally or metaphorically. It was written in the spare moments of a busy business life, and it deliberately avoids any abstruse discussion of economic and statistical problems. What Mr. Wallace attempted to do was to act as a liaison officer between the academic and the business worlds. He sought to describe in homely terms those complex theories relating to the trade cycle, upon which general trade forecasting is primarily based; and to show in as concrete a manner as possible how far existing knowledge on trade forecasting can be used by the business man in the practical conduct of his affairs.
"A Companion to Economic Forecasting" provides an accessible and
comprehensive account of recent developments in economic
forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an
expert in the field, bringing together a range of contrasting
approaches and views. Forecasting is a practical venture, so many
of the chapters are aimed at practitioners and
nonspecialists.
This book surveys a field that has expanded rapidly in recent years. There are no other up-to-date treatments that survey forecasting in a single volume. The "Companion" provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed. An extensive editorial overview places the contributions in context, and shows their interconnections and commonalities.
Biometrics - the physiological and/or behavioural characteristics
that can be used to verify the identity of an individual - are no
longer just being used in high security locations; they are now in
use in major, mainstream government and commercial applications.
Since September 11, the heightened awareness of security issues is
driving forward the adoption of biometrics within numerous
application environments. Coupled with a dramatic decrease in the
price of such systems and the formulation of comprehensive industry
standards, the market looks set for rapid growth over the next 5
years. The second edition of "The Biometric Industry Report -
Forecasts and Analysis to 2006" examines the current use and future
growth of biometrics. It analyses the trends in markets,
technologies and industry structure and profiles the major players.
The report provides key market statistics and forecasts essential
for companies to plot their future growth strategies.
In this prestigious edited collection, an international group of
leading contributors to the law of regulation take stock of the
erosion of belief in centralised planning and command and control
regulation which has accompanied the collapse of communism.
Concerned that subsequent regulatory alternatives have often been
prescribed by theorists who have little or no knowledge either of
the law of regulation, or of the actual capacities of and problems
with different regulatory techniques, these leading contributors go
on to explore the new directions in regulatory theory which must
now be pursued if regulation is to be made to work. The volume includes articles by Julia Black, John Braithwaite, Louise Davies, Bettina Lange, Imelda Maher, Oren Perez, Colin Scott and Peter Vincent-Jones.
"A technical tour de force, destined to become the thinking bull's
bible."-Kathryn Welling, Barron's
Before the spectacular economic catastrophes that have recently befallen the newly-emergent economies of Asia - notably those of Korea and Thailand - it was fashionable amongst economists to speak of an impending "Asian century" in which the Asia-Pacific region would supplant America as the centre of gravity for world affairs. Conventional wisdom held that the high growth rates enjoyed by the Asian "tiger" economies would continue relentlessly, even spreading within the region, while Western institutions, by contrast, would decline irreversibly. The author challenges this view and reveals how many of the institutions credited wuth the "miracle" performance of East Asian economies simply cannot withstand close scrutiny. Events of late 1997 prove the accuracy of his thesis - as each day seems to herald some new currency crisis or financial sector failure. Lingle is no stranger to controversy, following his forced departure from Singapore after the publication of an article, critical of the government, in the "International Herald Tribune". This book questions all international perceptions of East Asia's future and promises to stimulate debate.
Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics.
Forget supply and demand. Forget computers. The old rules are broken. Today, communication, not computation, drives change. We are rushing into a world where connectivity is everything, and where old business know-how means nothing. In this new economic order, success flows primarily from understanding networks, and networks have their own rules. In New Rules for the New Economy, Kevin Kelly presents ten fundamental principles of the connected economy that invert the traditional wisdom of the industrial world. Succinct and memorable, New Rules explains why these powerful laws are already hardwired into the new economy, and how they play out in all kinds of business--both low and high tech--all over the world. More than an overview of new economic principles, it prescribes clear and specific strategies for success in the network economy. For any worker, CEO, or middle manager, New Rules is the survival kit for the new economy.
Because the Information Age is so extremely different from the Industrial Age, the socioeconomic systems that will evolve will be different as well. The systems based on capitalist market economies and socialist planned economies proved to be neither sustainable nor community based. The scholars who contributed to this volume, including Nobel Laureates and other leaders in diverse fields, consciously look to new socioeconomic systems that would be sustainable and would be community-based. The failure of the Industrial Age is partly due to the education system peculiar to that age, which only values highly fragmented specialists, without questioning the interrelationships of professions and fragmented viewpoints. In the emerging Information Age, a new type of higher-education system, one focused on holistic viewpoints, is needed to unify fragmented professions. This and other future-oriented visionary perspectives emerge from this collection--one that will be of great value to all researchers and thinkers concerned with the new opportunities arising from the emerging Information Age.
Every day, companies are faced with dozens, even hundreds, of critical decisions concerning the allocation of resources, financial and organizational structure, and strategic direction. Who should make these decisions? And who should be held accountable for their consequences? Boards of directors are the "watchers" who govern the destinies of today's corporations, and Robert Monks and Nell Minow have been watching over their actions for years. This book was written for the people who need to know the most about corporate governance - directors, managers, shareholders, anyone in business - by the people who may know the most about doing it right. Watching the Watchers: Corporate Governance for the 21st Century covers everything modern-day managers need to know about corporate governance. Monks and Minow examine what a corporation is and how to measure its performance. In separate chapters on the rights and responsibilities of shareholders, boards of directors, managers, and employees, the authors examine the roles that each of these "corporate constituents" can, do, and should play in determining corporate direction and strategy. And they conclude with recommendations for increasing the productivity and competitiveness of corporations by strengthening the shareholders and the board - the "watchers". Their real-world experiences, insights, and instructions are of critical importance to anyone concerned with the direction of business in our time.
Economists often look at markets as given, and try to make predictions about who will do what and what will happen in these markets Market design, by contrast, does not take markets as given; instead, it combines insights from economic and game theory together with common sense and lessons learned from empirical work and experimental analysis to aid in the design and implementation of actual markets In recent years the field has grown dramatically, partially because of the successful wave of spectrum auctions in the US and in Europe, which have been designed by a number of prominent economists, and partially because of the increase use of the Internet as the platform over which markets are designed and run There is now a large number of applications and a growing theoretical literature. The Handbook of Market Design brings together the latest research from leading experts to provide a comprehensive description of applied market design over the last two decades In particular, it surveys matching markets: environments where there is a need to match large two-sided populations to one another, such as medical residents and hospitals, law clerks and judges, or patients and kidney donors It also examines a number of applications related to electronic markets, e-commerce, and the effect of the Internet on competition between exchanges
Since the Maastricht Treaty of December 1991, Europe has experienced rising nationalism and regionalism--both centrifugal effects working against union--and above all scepticism toward the Union concept itself. As certain of the member states fragment, or turn inward, a turning-point in history has been reached: it is the end of the post-War Europe. As such, is it even necessary for Europe to be united at all? Is the unification ideal too large a political concept? Is the ideal of European unification dying, and have the concepts enshrined in the Maastricht Treaty become museum pieces? These are among the incisive questions asked by writer-economist Noriko Hama, in "Disintegrating Europe." This approach is dramatic, readable, and compelling, and represents the first time that so qualified an "economic" commentator has attempted a 'big picture' view of the future of the European unification project. Predicting that the crumbling cornerstone of unity makes the present course untenable, the author provides an alternative vision for 21st Century Europe resting on the market mechanism as seen in East Asia. This, she argues, would serve as an 'engine of growth' to replace the now-faltering engine of the newly-united Germany, which instead will continue to wrestle with its deflationary absorption of East Germany.
The geography of services is no longer of local or national significance: it now embraces the international stage. Service industries have enabled, and themselves become participants in, world trade. Although this is not a new role, during the 1980s they have become a much more active ingredient in the process of social and economic change. New and diversified service products have generated increased consumption, ranging from tourism and leisure, to sophisticated innovations in ways of making finance capital available for corporate growth or production strategies. But there are spatial variations between the world's nations, regions and cities that ensure a highly uneven ability to supply services, and to generate demand. There are contrasts between the developed, less-developed, and post-socialist economies of Eastern Europe, for example, and between major metropolitan areas around the globe in the extent to which they experience the positive (as well as negative) effects of the internationalization of the service economy. This book examines some explanations for the expanding role of services in the world economy. It is suggested that the resulting patterns are particularly significant for the form and function of the global urban system. The book concludes by reflecting on the future role of services in the world economy: can the trends evident for the 1980s be assumed to shape the evolving geography of services during the 1990s and beyond?
July 1991 was a momentous month in the contemporary economic history of India, when a market-friendly set of policies shifted the centre of country's political economy more rightward than ever before. This book examines the 1990-91 reforms from different ideological perspectives. Authors from diverse backgrounds track the origins and continuation of liberal policies, dissecting the role of the state over the last 25 years in addressing issues like poverty, nutrition, and income inequality. It argues that neo-liberal globalisation, global capitalism and inclusive development have come to constitute the new order of things in the Indian economy, and examines the economic and social outcomes of the non-interventionist state. Explaining why there is still widespread dissatisfaction with the progress and outcome of reforms, the book elaborates on India's tumultuous start in the new millennium.
The concepts of statistical physics and big data play an important role in the evidence-based analysis and interpretation of macroeconomic principles. The techniques of complex networks, big data, and statistical physics are useful to understand theories of economic systems, and the authors have applied these to understand the intricacies of complex macroeconomic problems. Recent research work using tools and techniques of big data, statistical physics, complex networks, and statistical science is covered, and basic graph algorithms and statistical measures of complex networks are described. The application of big data and statistical physics tools to assess price dynamics, inflation, systemic risks, and productivity is discussed. Chapter-end summary and numerical problems are provided to reinforce understanding of concepts.
The first of the UN Millennium Goals was to reduce extreme poverty and in 2014 it was halved compared to 1990, and now the goal is to eradicate poverty and hunger by 2030. The reduction in poverty is, to a high degree, the consequence of the rapid economic development in a few countries, especially China, but in many countries around the globe poverty is still at a high level and is influencing societies' overall development. It is against this background that this Handbook provides an up-to-date analysis and overview of the topic from a large variety of theoretical and methodological angles. Organised into four parts, the Handbook provides knowledge on what poverty is, how it has developed, and what type of policies might be able to succeed in reducing poverty. Part I investigates conceptual issues and relates concepts to people's relative position in society and the understanding of justice. Part II shows how poverty has developed. It combines existing empirical knowledge with regional/national understandings of the issue of poverty. Part III analyses policies and interventions with the aim of reducing or alleviating poverty within a national as well as global context. It includes a variety of countries and examples. Finally, Part IV tells us what can be done about poverty; what instruments are available to end poverty as we know it today. This volume will be an invaluable reference book for students and scholars throughout the social sciences, particularly in sociology, social policy, public policy, development studies, international relations and politics.
Introduction to Econometrics provides students with clear and simple mathematics notation and step-by-step explanations of mathematical proofs, to give them a thorough understanding of the subject. Extensive exercises throughout build confidence by encouraging students to apply econometric techniques. Retaining its student-friendly approach, Introduction to Econometrics has a comprehensive revision guide to all the essential statistical concepts needed to study econometrics, additional Monte Carlo simulations, new summaries, and non-technical introductions to more advanced topics at the end of chapters. This book is supported by an Online Resource Centre, which includes: For lecturers: * Instructor's manual for the text and data sets, detailing the exercises and their solutions. * Customizable PowerPoint slides. For students: * Data sets referred to in the book. * A comprehensive study guide offers students the opportunity to gain experience with econometrics through practice with exercises. * Software manual. * PowerPoint slides with explanations.
'A timely and cogent reminder that history never ends and is about to be made' - Tim Marshall, author of Prisoners of Geography With the world already struggling to contain conflicts on several continents, with security and defence expenditure under huge pressure, it's time to think the unthinkable and explore what might happen. As former soldiers now working in defence strategy and conflict resolution, Paul Cornish and Kingsley Donaldson are perfectly qualified to guide us through a credible and utterly convincing 20/20 vision of the year 2020, from cyber security to weapons technology, from geopolitics to undercover operations. This book is of global importance, offering both analysis and creative solutions - essential reading both for decision-makers and everyone who simply wants to understand our future. |
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