Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present Offers a proven approach for making sense out of future challenges and devising positive responses, using methods developed by the respected Institute for the Future Features examples of how organizations like Procter & Gamble, Disney, Reuters, UPS, and the Centers for Disease Control have put the approach into practice Includes the institute's ten-year forecast of trends, challenges, and opportunitiesThese days, every leader struggles with a paradox: you can't predict the future, but you have to be able to make sense of it to thrive. In the age of the Internet, everyone knows what's new, but to succeed you have to be able to sort out what's important, devise strategies based on your own point of view, and get there ahead of the crowd.Bob Johansen shares techniques the Institute for the Future has been refining for nearly forty years to help leaders navigate what, borrowing a term from the Army War College, he calls the VUCA world: a world characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. As the institute's ten-year forecast makes clear, leaders now face fewer problems with neat solutions and more dilemmas: recurring, complex, messy, and puzzling situations. Get There Early lays out the institute's three-step Foresight to Insight to Action Cycle that will allow readers to sense, make sense of, and win with dilemmas. Johansen offers specific techniques, ranging from storytelling to simulation gaming, as well as real-world examples to help readers turn the VUCA world on its head through creative use of vision, understanding, clarity, and agility. This book offers hope for leaders facing the constant tension - a dilemma in itself - between judging too soon and deciding too late.

An upbeat antidote to the gloom and doom forecasts of the financial future

Just about everyone is worried about the economy and markets. And the fear is that they will stay down for a long time. But a few brave voices say that the gloom and doom forecasts are just too pessimistic. Reality is that entrepreneurs don't give up. History is pretty clear, every time the economy is thought to be done, worn out, finished, it bounces back and heads to new highs. In fact, the economy and the markets-counter to conventional wisdom-have started to improve in the first half of 2009. Even housing is showing some signs of life.

With "It's Not as Bad as You Think, "Brian Wesbury, ranked as one of the top economic forecasters by the "Wall Street Journal" and "USA Today, " shows you that while the financial future may be hard to predict, it will ultimately be profitable over the long haul. In this easy-to-follow and engaging forecast of the future, Wesbury takes a look at the good, the bad, and the ugly-and debunks the pouting pundits of pessimism to show you how to prosper now and in the future.An optimistic look at the economy and the markets written by one of today's foremost financial forecastersPresents a roadmap to seek opportunities in all the panicShows you how to analyze economic indicators and government policy to grow your wealth so you don't lose by hiding under the bed

A breath of fresh air, Wesbury's objectivity and optimism provide welcome relief to the daily bad news stories, as he sets us all up to capitalize on tomorrow's great possibilities.

A smart trader needs to know what other traders are thinking and doing. Professional traders and investors use a wide range of indicators--some well-known, some not so well-known--to gauge the state of the market.
"Market Indicators" introduces the many key indicators used by professional traders and investors every day. Having stood the test of time, these indicators will alert the trader to market situations that offer the best chance to trade profitably.
Richard Sipley is a portfolio manager for Boston Private Bank and Trust Company, responsible for trading millions of dollars of assets. Sipley uses these indicators every day in his trading and investing, and he draws on that experience to explain what they are, how they work, and how to use them.

Broad beliefs about the economics of 'developing countries' and of the development process have changed considerably since the subject became of wide interest in the 1950s; due largely to changes in the world and in the application of economic policies within developing countries. Subjects such as environment, gender, poverty, famine and globalization have come to be of increasingly important public interest. The extreme divergence of experience among regions of the world has also made it more and more questionable whether it even makes sense to think of a single and distinctive 'economics of developing countries'. This textbook presents a concise and up-to-date examination of the field of development economics, bringing together historical perspectives, current issues and policy implications. Each chapter can be read as a stand-alone unit, or as part of the wider economic debates presented throughout the book.

The text provides extensive coverage of forecasting methodology. It reduces complexity to a step-by-step format, thus precluding the necessity of a mathematical background. A full range of methods are explained: time series (eighteen models), regression analysis, econometrics and related practices, short life cycle, qualitative, and forecast evaluation and modification, for instance. The examples and discussions bring the text into the real world. Forecasting is integrated with planning, decision making, and operations including Sales and Operations Planning, supply chain considerations, and scheduling. The book provides a skill level that allows the readers to develop more accurate forecasting models suitable to their business environments.

"Great fortunes which have been created by bankers, merchants, and investors are the result of ignoring these monthly fluctuations in commodity and security prices, and of striving to anticipate and profit by the major movements coming every few years. These major movements can be foretold if one will spend the necessary time and money in studying fundamental conditions. Therefore a fortune is within the grasp of every reader of this book who has and uses the necessary figures." - From the Preface Among entrepreneurs and businessmen alike, Roger Babson is considered one of the foremost authorities in the field of business forecasting, and his philosophy and statistical expertise continue to influence the investment community today. A model of comparative statistical analysis, this classic text still holds remarkable value to beginning and experienced investors alike. It expertly encompass in an understandable and succinct manner an array of topics including: . Two Classes of Statistics, . Increase in Funds Invested According to Fundamental Trends, . Price Fluctuations and Purchasing Range and Commodity Market Since 1860, . The Law of Equal and Opposite Reaction, Theory of Babsonchart, . Wealth, New Building, Check Transactions, Failures, Labor Conditions . Banking, Foreign Trade and Exchange, Gold and Commodity Prices, . Effect of War on Business Conditions and much more. ALSO AVAILABLE FROM COSIMO CLASSICS: Babson's Instincts and Emotions: Should They Be Suppressed or Harnessed? and Business Fundamentals: How to Become a Successful Business Man. American entrepreneur, statistician, and author ROGER WARD BABSON (1875-1967) founded Massachusetts' Babson College, in 1919, and the state'sGravity Research Foundation in 1948. A prolific writer who explored a wide variety of topics; his books include Fundamentals of Prosperity, The Future of the Churches, Religion and Business, and Gravity: Our Enemy No. 1.

The author of the bestseller "The Art of the Long View" forecasts the inevitable surprises that will shape the business world of tomorrow.

The world we live in today is more volatile than ever. The security of free nations is threatened by rogue states, the global economy is in flux, and the rapid advance of technology forces constant reevaluation of our society. With so many powerful forces at work and seemingly unpredictable events occurring, to many the future seems dark, and its possibilities frightening.

Peter Schwartz disagrees. A world-renowned visionary in the field of scenario planning, Schwartzas startlingaand accuratea predictions have been employed by government agencies and major corporations for more than twenty-five years. He argues that the future is foreseeable, and that by examining the dynamics at work today we can predict the ainevitable surprisesa of tomorrow.

Timely and thought-provoking, "Inevitable Surprises" is a book that no one with an interest in businessaor the future of our societyacan afford to miss.

This book must be judged in the light of its limited objective. It is not the product of the study, either literally or metaphorically. It was written in the spare moments of a busy business life, and it deliberately avoids any abstruse discussion of economic and statistical problems. What Mr. Wallace attempted to do was to act as a liaison officer between the academic and the business worlds. He sought to describe in homely terms those complex theories relating to the trade cycle, upon which general trade forecasting is primarily based; and to show in as concrete a manner as possible how far existing knowledge on trade forecasting can be used by the business man in the practical conduct of his affairs.

"The most thoroughgoing assault on the Maestro's legacy so far."--Cecil Johnson, "Fort Worth Star-Telegram "(syndicated)"" "Here, finally, is the dark truth about Alan Greenspan. In this chilling expose of one of the most powerful men of our time, Ravi Batra reveals Greenspan for who he secretly is: An ideologue who has waged war on the American Dream and imperiled the world economy. "Greenspan's Fraud" is a terrifying book."--David Callahan, author of "The Cheating Culture: Why More Americans Are Doing Wrong to Get Ahead" "As always, his economic arguments are expressed elegantly."--"Publishers Weekly" "[H]is economic insights recommend this book to most public and academic libraries."--Lawrence R. Maxted, "Library Journal"
"Ravi Batra is one of the world's most controversial economists. Beneath the surface of his often contentious conclusions lies a deeper source of the controversy. He does not accept one of the most fundamental fallacies of modern macroeconomic theory--the assumption that macroeconomic policy has no distribution effects.... Professor Batra turns this oversimplifying assumption upside down.... [W]e cannot and should not ignore him..."--William A. Barnett, Oswald Distinguished Professor of Macroeconomics, University of Kansas and Editor, Macroeconomic Dynamics
PRAISE FOR RAVI BATRA'S OTHER BOOKS
"Dr. Batra writes about his subject as clearly as if he were telling bedtime stories."--Christopher Lehmann-Haupt, "New York Times"
"Batra has set the standard for economic analysis . . . Think about it. Before Batra, who ever heard of phrases like 'jobless recovery, ' 'contained depression, ' and 'deflationary boom.'"--John Liscio, "Barron's"
"When itcomes to the bottom line so beloved of economists, one can learn a lot about events by thinking about them in cyclical regularities, of which Batra gives a novel and brilliant exposition."--Lester C. Thurow, Professor, MIT
"Batra [is] a scholar who has earned a considerable reputation as an expert on trade."--Albert Crenshaw, "Washington Post"
"Ravi Batra has made an outstanding reputation in the United States as an international economic theorist in the best Western tradition."--Leonard Silk, "New York Times"

"A Companion to Economic Forecasting" provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together a range of contrasting approaches and views. Forecasting is a practical venture, so many of the chapters are aimed at practitioners and nonspecialists.

This book surveys a field that has expanded rapidly in recent years. There are no other up-to-date treatments that survey forecasting in a single volume. The "Companion" provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed. An extensive editorial overview places the contributions in context, and shows their interconnections and commonalities.

Biometrics - the physiological and/or behavioural characteristics that can be used to verify the identity of an individual - are no longer just being used in high security locations; they are now in use in major, mainstream government and commercial applications. Since September 11, the heightened awareness of security issues is driving forward the adoption of biometrics within numerous application environments. Coupled with a dramatic decrease in the price of such systems and the formulation of comprehensive industry standards, the market looks set for rapid growth over the next 5 years. The second edition of "The Biometric Industry Report - Forecasts and Analysis to 2006" examines the current use and future growth of biometrics. It analyses the trends in markets, technologies and industry structure and profiles the major players. The report provides key market statistics and forecasts essential for companies to plot their future growth strategies.

For a PDF version of the report please call Sarah Proom on +44 (0) 1865 843181 for price details.

This book discusses business barometers used in the management of business and investment of money. It is a textbook on applied economics for merchants, bankers and investors. Neither this book nor any other can aid a banker, merchant or investor to become rich within a short time. Nobody knows or can know what conditions or prices are to exist within a few weeks or even months, and 95% of the men who endeavor to take advantage of these monthly movements never make much headway. These major movements can be foretold if one will spend the necessary time and money in studying fundamental conditions. Therefore, a fortune is within the grasp of every reader of this book who has and uses the necessary figures. Illustrated with many charts.

In this prestigious edited collection, an international group of leading contributors to the law of regulation take stock of the erosion of belief in centralised planning and command and control regulation which has accompanied the collapse of communism. Concerned that subsequent regulatory alternatives have often been prescribed by theorists who have little or no knowledge either of the law of regulation, or of the actual capacities of and problems with different regulatory techniques, these leading contributors go on to explore the new directions in regulatory theory which must now be pursued if regulation is to be made to work.

The volume includes articles by Julia Black, John Braithwaite, Louise Davies, Bettina Lange, Imelda Maher, Oren Perez, Colin Scott and Peter Vincent-Jones.

Authoritative and comprehensive, yet comprehensible. A remarkable blend of rigorous elegance and economic wisdom. The Theory of Incomplete Markets provides a unified framework for analyzing the real, financial, and monetary sectors of an economy. It describes an innovative theory that takes into account the fact that in order to coordinate their activities and share their risks, agents are forced by the imperfections in their knowledge and their propensity for opportunistic behavior to trade sequentially and to make only limited contractual commitments into the future. This book studies the consequences of trading with such a sequential and incomplete market structure for the equilibria of an economy: competitive markets no longer provide the ideal way of allocating resources and even with rational expectations monetary policy is nonneutral.The theory presented in this book retains the simplicity, coherence, and generality that are the hallmarks of traditional general equilibrium theory, while moving the nature of the markets, contracts, and constraints on agent participation into closer conformity with the actual structure of markets observed in the real world.Students and researchers will appreciate how the book incorporates results from the latest research while remaining accessible to a wide audience. The theory is built from the bottom up, with ample nontechnical motivation and a user-friendly presentation that constantly draws on the reader's economic and geometric intuition. Historical discussions in each chapter help clarify the origins and current limitations of the theory.This is the first of two volumes. Volume 1 focuses on the role and functioning of financial markets in a competitive setting. Volume 2 will study more general models that combine the real and financial sectors of the economy and depart from a purely competitive analysis. In addition to providing basic insights needed to understand the theory of incomplete markets, this volume provides the essential tools needed to understand the more general analysis of Volume 2.

Including new developments and publications which have appeared since the publication of the first edition in 1995, this second edition:
*gives a comprehensive introductory account of event history modeling techniques and their use in applied research in economics and the social sciences;
*demonstrates that event history modeling is a major step forward in causal analysis. To do so the authors show that event history models employ the time-path of changes in states and relate changes in causal variables in the past to changes in discrete outcomes in the future; and
*introduces the reader to the computer program Transition Data Analysis (TDA). This software estimates the sort of models most frequently used with longitudinal data, in particular, discrete-time and continuous-time event history data.
"Techniques of Event History Modeling" can serve as a student textbook in the fields of statistics, economics, the social sciences, psychology, and the political sciences. It can also be used as a reference for scientists in all fields of research.

The Washington Post called The Long Boom "a future-history and a challenge"-and that is exactly what it is: the story of the world's future, powered by emerging technologies, and a political vision that can help realize an era of unprecedented growth and opportunity. The Long Boom urges everyone to recognize that global prosperity, a sustainable environment, broad social progress, and even radically extended lifespans are very possible-if not probable-in the 20 years to come.

"A technical tour de force, destined to become the thinking bull's bible."-Kathryn Welling, Barron's
Renowned for her analytical brilliance and extraordinary forecasting ability, LOUISE YAMADA examines the forces that will shape the markets for the next ten years
"Few on Wall Street can match Louise Yamada for analytical ability as well as insight on the big issues affecting investors. We are fortunate she is willing to share the results of her thoughts and research with us."-Mark Haines, CNBC
"Louise Yamada has a special talent for anticipating future financial trends. Market Magic is a must read for investors as we prepare for the exciting decade ahead."-David Cork, F.C.S.I. author of The Pig and the Python: How to Prosper from the Aging Baby Boom
"Market Magic demystifies the voodoo of technical analysis and relates technical indicators to the real world of stocks and bonds and demographic and economic trends worldwide."-Oscar S. Schafer, General Partner
Cumberland Associates; Member, Barron's Roundtable
For updates on new and bestselling Wiley Finance titles: wiley.com/wbns

This is the preeminent and most authoritative annual report and forecast on the Chinese economy, now ranked among the three largest economies in the world as well as one of the most swiftly changing. Researched and written by a quasi-official organ of the Chinese government, it devotes many chapters to structural reforms that are drawing attention around the world. Coverage includes general forecasts and policy analyses on the Chinese economy, reports on specific regions within China including Hong Kong, reviews of the global economic situation, and prospects for the future of China.

Today more than three quarters of a billion people go hungry in a world where food is plentiful. A distinguished scientist here sets out an agenda for addressing this situation. Initially published in 1997 in the United Kingdom, the book is now available in the first edition produced for the Western hemisphere. In it, the author has updated information to reflect current economic indicators. This volume includes a foreword written for the previous edition by Ismail Serageldin of the World Bank.The original Green Revolution produced new technologies for farmers, creating food abundance. A second transformation of agriculture is now required specifically, Gordon Conway argues, a "doubly green" revolution that stresses conservation as well as productivity. He calls for researchers and farmers to forge genuine partnerships in an effort to design better plants and animals. He also urges them to develop (or rediscover) alternatives to inorganic fertilizers and pesticides, improve soil and water management, and enhance earning opportunities for the poor, especially women."

Why have the states of Europe agreed to create an Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and a single European currency? What will decide the fate of this bold project? This book explains why monetary integration has deepened in Europe from the Bretton Woods era to the present day. McNamara argues that the development of a neoliberal economic policy consensus among European leaders in the years after the first oil crisis was crucial to stability in the European Monetary System and progress towards EMU. She identifies two factors, rising capital mobility and changing ideas about the government's proper role in monetary policymaking, as critical to the neoliberal consensus but warns that unresolved social tensions in this consensus may provoke a political backlash against EMU and its neoliberal reforms.McNamara's findings are relevant not only to European monetary integration, but to more general questions about the effects of international capital flows on states. Although this book delineates a range of constraints created by economic interdependence, McNamara rejects the notion that international market forces simply dictate government policy choice. She demonstrates that the process of neoliberal policy change is a historically dependent one, shaped by policymakers' shared beliefs and interpretations of their experiences in the global economy.

Forget supply and demand. Forget computers. The old rules are broken. Today, communication, not computation, drives change. We are rushing into a world where connectivity is everything, and where old business know-how means nothing. In this new economic order, success flows primarily from understanding networks, and networks have their own rules. In New Rules for the New Economy, Kevin Kelly presents ten fundamental principles of the connected economy that invert the traditional wisdom of the industrial world. Succinct and memorable, New Rules explains why these powerful laws are already hardwired into the new economy, and how they play out in all kinds of business--both low and high tech--all over the world. More than an overview of new economic principles, it prescribes clear and specific strategies for success in the network economy. For any worker, CEO, or middle manager, New Rules is the survival kit for the new economy.

Because the Information Age is so extremely different from the Industrial Age, the socioeconomic systems that will evolve will be different as well. The systems based on capitalist market economies and socialist planned economies proved to be neither sustainable nor community based. The scholars who contributed to this volume, including Nobel Laureates and other leaders in diverse fields, consciously look to new socioeconomic systems that would be sustainable and would be community-based.

The failure of the Industrial Age is partly due to the education system peculiar to that age, which only values highly fragmented specialists, without questioning the interrelationships of professions and fragmented viewpoints. In the emerging Information Age, a new type of higher-education system, one focused on holistic viewpoints, is needed to unify fragmented professions. This and other future-oriented visionary perspectives emerge from this collection--one that will be of great value to all researchers and thinkers concerned with the new opportunities arising from the emerging Information Age.

Since the Maastricht Treaty of December 1991, Europe has experienced rising nationalism and regionalism--both centrifugal effects working against union--and above all scepticism toward the Union concept itself. As certain of the member states fragment, or turn inward, a turning-point in history has been reached: it is the end of the post-War Europe. As such, is it even necessary for Europe to be united at all? Is the unification ideal too large a political concept? Is the ideal of European unification dying, and have the concepts enshrined in the Maastricht Treaty become museum pieces? These are among the incisive questions asked by writer-economist Noriko Hama, in "Disintegrating Europe." This approach is dramatic, readable, and compelling, and represents the first time that so qualified an "economic" commentator has attempted a 'big picture' view of the future of the European unification project.

Predicting that the crumbling cornerstone of unity makes the present course untenable, the author provides an alternative vision for 21st Century Europe resting on the market mechanism as seen in East Asia. This, she argues, would serve as an 'engine of growth' to replace the now-faltering engine of the newly-united Germany, which instead will continue to wrestle with its deflationary absorption of East Germany.