Over the past few years, the Federal Reserve's use of unconventional monetary policy tools has led it to hold a large portfolio of securities. The asset purchases are intended to put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, but also affect the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and income. We begin with a primer on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and income statement. Then, we present a framework for projecting Federal Reserve assets and liabilities and income through time. The projections are based on public economic forecasts and announced Federal Open Market Committee policy principles. The projections imply that for the next several years, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet remains large by historical standards, and earnings remain high. Using the FOMC's stated exit strategy principles and the Blue Chip financial forecasts of the federal funds rate, the projections have the Federal Reserve's portfolio beginning to contract in 2015. The portfolio returns to a more normal size in early 2018 or 2019, and returns to a more normal composition a year thereafter. The projections imply that Federal Reserve remittances to the Treasury will likely decline for a time, and in some cases fall to zero. Once the portfolio is normalized, however, earnings are projected to return to their long-run trend. On net over the entire period of unconventional monetary policy actions, cumulative earnings are higher than what they likely would have been without the Federal Reserve asset purchase programs. To illustrate the interest rate sensitivity of the portfolio and earnings, we consider scenarios where interest rates are 100 basis points higher or 100 basis points lower than in the baseline projections. With higher interest rates, earnings tend to fall a bit more and remittances to the Treasury stop for a longer period than in our baseline projections, while with lower interest rates earnings are a bit larger and remittances continue throughout the projection period. With either interest rate path, earnings follow the same general contour as in the baseline analysis.

Why the crisis in which America finds itself demands a new "operating system" In this third volume of his award-winning American Crisis series, James Gustave Speth makes his boldest and most ambitious contribution yet. He looks unsparingly at the sea of troubles in which the United States now finds itself, charts a course through the discouragement and despair commonly felt today, and envisions what he calls America the Possible, an attractive and plausible future that we can still realize. The book identifies a dozen features of the American political economy-the country's basic operating system-where transformative change is essential. It spells out the specific changes that are needed to move toward a new political economy-one in which the true priority is to sustain people and planet. Supported by a compelling "theory of change" that explains how system change can come to America, the book also presents a vision of political, social, and economic life in a renewed America. Speth envisions a future that will be well worth fighting for. In short, this is a book about the American future and the strong possibility that we yet have it in ourselves to use our freedom and our democracy in powerful ways to create something fine, a reborn America, for our children and grandchildren.

The book is a dialogue between a money manager and a young man who asks whether or not he should invest. Their conversation explores How 'for money' and 'not-for-money' investment differ; How accounting and economic assets compare with social and natural assets; How time is central to all of investment, building capabilities in the present which can deliver resources in the future; How banks collectively create and destroy money; How the yield curve shows the market interest rates for financial assets of different durations; How competitive advantage is important in determining the returns achieved on real assets; How 'fundamental value' differs from price, or what someone is prepared to pay; How 'fundamental analysis' and 'technical analysis' of price data provide insights into risk; How mean-variance analysis of price data is the conventional approach to risk; How the economic ecosystem creates prices How capitalism may be a lousy system and yet the best available as it adapts continuously to align money prices and human values.

A growing complacency that stability has been restored in the wake of recent economic turmoil is not just wishful thinking, it is dangerous thinking This book directly confronts uncomfortable questions that many prefer to brush aside: if economists and other scholars, politicians, and business professionals understand the causes of economic crises, as they claim, then why do such damaging crises continue to occur? Can we trust business and intellectual elites who advocate the principles of Realpolitik and claim the "public good" as their priority, yet consistently favor maximization of profit over ethical issues? Former deputy prime minister of Russia Grigory Yavlinsky, an internationally respected free-market economist, makes a powerful case that the often-cited causes of global economic instability-institutional failings, wrong decisions by regulators, insufficient or incorrect information, and the like-are only secondary to a far more significant underlying cause: the failure to understand that universal social norms are essential to thriving businesses and social and economic progress. Yavlinsky explores the widespread disregard for moral values in business decisions and calls for restoration of principled behavior in politics and economic practices. The unwelcome alternative, he warns, will be a twenty-first-century global economy in the grip of unending crises.

Asia has entered the 21st century as an economic superpower and is inevitably also becoming a political superpower. This evolution is the subject of this continuing series which includes in its scope the entire spectrum of contemporary politics and economics of Asia. The coverage is intended to deal with Asia, its political dynamics, economic policies, institutions and its future. It discusses topics that include: U.S.-South Korea relations; trade promotion authority and the Korea Free Trade Agreement; China's military modernisation efforts; U.S.-Vietnam economic and trade relations; and, U.S.-China trade relations and China's currency policy.

As individuals, companies, and countries struggle to recover from the economic crisis, many are narrowly focused on forecasts for the next week, month, or quarter. Yet they should be asking what the global economy will look like in the years to come - where will the long-term risks and opportunities arise? These are the questions that Daniel Altman confronts in his provocative and indispensable book. The fate of the global economy, Altman argues, will be determined by deeper factors than those that move markets from moment to moment. His incisive analysis brings together hidden trends, societal pressures, and policy endgames to make twelve surprising but logical predictions about the years ahead and to pose the question of whether our political and economic institutions are up to the task.

This book covers essential elements of building and understanding regression models within the context of business and economics. It is a nonmathematical treatment that is accessible, even to readers with limited statistical backgrounds. It is useful for business professionals, MBA students and others who seek to understand regression analysis without having to work through tedious mathematical and statistical theory. The importance of using regression models in modern business and economic analysis can hardly be overstated. In this book we describe exactly how such models can be developed and evaluated. The data used is real data with real world business applications, not data that has been contrived to demonstrate some purely academic point. These data are likely to be encountered and used in the actual world of business. In an appendix using screen shots and step by step instructions, we include how to do use Excel to perform regression analysis. When readers have completed this book they will understand how to build basic mathematical models illustrating business/economic relationships using regression analysis. In addition, they will know how to interpret and evaluate regression models using a five step process (which includes evaluating the model; identifying its statistical significance; determining its explanatory power; for time-series applications, identifying how the error terms are distributed; and understanding the concept of multicollinearity). Readers will understand what is possible and what to look for in evaluating regression models. It is unlikely that most readers will build such models in the course of carrying out their own professional responsibilities, but it is very likely that they will, at some point in their careers, be exposed to such models. This book will help such readers understand models that someone else has developed.

This book provides a comprehensive description of the state-of-the-art in modelling global and national economies. It introduces the long-run structural approach to modelling that can be readily adopted for use in understanding how economies work, and in generating forecasts for decision- and policy-makers. The book contains a thorough description of recent developments in macroeconomics and econometrics, which should be of interest to advanced students and researchers, but is also written to be accessible and helpful to practitioners in government and the private sector. The long-run structural approach is illustrated with various global and national examples, including a step-by-step description of the development and use of a model of the UK economy. Throughout, the book emphasises the use of macroeconometric modelling in the real world and is written in a way that ensures the techniques illustrated can be replicated or applied in new contexts. The transparency and pragmatism of the modelling approach used within this book will be attractive to practitioners who need manageable and interpretable models to answer specific questions.

Throughout our nation's history, Americans have found the courage to do right by our children's future. Our challenge is clear and inescapable: America cannot be great if we go broke. Our businesses will not be able to grow and create jobs, and our workers will not be able to compete successfully for the jobs of the future without a plan to get this crushing debt burden off our backs. Ever since the economic downturn, families across the country have huddled around kitchen tables, making tough choices about what they hold most dear and what they can learn to live without. They expect and deserve their leaders to do the same. This book examines the need to face the Nation's current fiscal future, with a look at the economic implications of the long-term federal budget.

The world spins in economic turmoil, and who can tell what will happen next? Cold numbers and simple statistical projections don't take into account social, financial, or political factors that can dramatically alter the economic course of a nation or a region. In this unique book, more than twenty leading economists and experts render thorough, rigorously researched prognoses for the world's major economies over the next five years. Factoring in such varied issues as the price of oil, the strength of the U.S. dollar, geopolitics, tax policies, and new developments in investment decision making, the contributors ground their predictions in the realities of current events, political conditions, and the health of financial institutions in each national economy.

The most comprehensive volume on the global economy available today, this book presents up-to-date research on Russia, Australia, Europe, sub-Saharan and South Africa, the major Asian economies, North America, and the largest economies of Latin America. With unsurpassed expertise, the authors explain what's going on in individual countries, how important current global issues will impact them, and what economic scenarios they most likely will face in upcoming years.

It is the business of science to predict. An exact science like astronomy can usually make very accurate predictions indeed. A chemist makes a precise prediction every time he writes a formula. The nuclear physicist advertised to the world, in the atomic bomb, how man can deal with entities so small that they are completely beyond the realm of sense perception, yet make predictions astonishing in their accuracy and significance. Economics is now reaching a point where it can hope also to make rather accurate predictions, within limits which this study will explain. Complete with more than 150 grafts and charts. Wilder Publications is a green publisher. All of our books are printed to order. This reduces waste and helps us keep prices low while greatly reducing our impact on the environment.

Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present Offers a proven approach for making sense out of future challenges and devising positive responses, using methods developed by the respected Institute for the Future Features examples of how organizations like Procter & Gamble, Disney, Reuters, UPS, and the Centers for Disease Control have put the approach into practice Includes the institute's ten-year forecast of trends, challenges, and opportunitiesThese days, every leader struggles with a paradox: you can't predict the future, but you have to be able to make sense of it to thrive. In the age of the Internet, everyone knows what's new, but to succeed you have to be able to sort out what's important, devise strategies based on your own point of view, and get there ahead of the crowd.Bob Johansen shares techniques the Institute for the Future has been refining for nearly forty years to help leaders navigate what, borrowing a term from the Army War College, he calls the VUCA world: a world characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. As the institute's ten-year forecast makes clear, leaders now face fewer problems with neat solutions and more dilemmas: recurring, complex, messy, and puzzling situations. Get There Early lays out the institute's three-step Foresight to Insight to Action Cycle that will allow readers to sense, make sense of, and win with dilemmas. Johansen offers specific techniques, ranging from storytelling to simulation gaming, as well as real-world examples to help readers turn the VUCA world on its head through creative use of vision, understanding, clarity, and agility. This book offers hope for leaders facing the constant tension - a dilemma in itself - between judging too soon and deciding too late.