Business leaders know that accurate forecasting is a critical organizational capability. Forecasting is predicting the future, and the list of what needs to be predicted to run a world-class organization and its supply chain is virtually endless. Forecasting goes well beyond simply predicting demand or sales. Accurate forecasts are essential for identifying new market opportunities, forecasting risks, events, supply chain disruptions, innovation, competition, market growth and trends. It also includes the ability to conduct a what-ifa analysis to understand the tradeoff implications of decisions. Over the past few years the ability to make accurate and useful forecasts has become particularly challenging due to a spike in the competitiveness of global markets coupled with a global economic recession. Customers are demanding increasingly shorter response times, improved quality, and greater product choice. Increased competition is exacerbated by a downward global economy and rising fuel prices, which increase uncertainty, risk, and operating costs. The result has been a sharp rise in the complexity of what needs to be forecasted. In an era of rapid change, historical data that are typically used to make forecasts can be of limited value. At the same time information technology has enabled forecasts to drive entire supply chains and enterprise resources planning systems. However, more technology and software, without an understanding of how they can most effectively be utilized, are not the answer to improving forecast accuracy

During the 1990s Francis Fukuyama announced the end of history. The 2000s showed how it is an illusion to imagine a peaceful world without conflict. In this book the authors explore how six major constraints are set to fix the trajectory of the global economy. Three of them are new: the aging population, the failure of technical progress, and the scarcity of savings. The other three have been at work for some time: the explosion of inequality, the mass transfer of activities from one end of the world to the other, and the limitless financialization of economy. They suggest that like seismic activity which depends on pressure between tectonic plates, the political and social tensions will be exacerbated in the coming years by these major forces. They propose that authorities will be incapable of preventing neither the date nor the intensity of the coming earthquakes, and ask the question: Are we able to cope with these future shocks and the violence they are sure to cause?

Every plan needs a forecast - a reasonable prediction of the future. No business plan can be implemented without one. But the academic literature on forecasting is vast and spans disciplines such as statistics, economics, operations management and informed judgment and decision making. Recommendations from this literature have been implemented in a vast array of commercial software, and almost all modern companies have access to some decision support models that provide demand forecasts. In the long run, the demand forecast shapes decisions to build or close down plants, add or remove products from a portfolio, and bolster or challenge investor confidence in the stock price. In the short run forecasting software greatly aids managers in making functional decisions (how much are we going to sell next month, next year, or 5 years from now?) but without a proper understanding of the basics of forecasting, such software appears as a black-box, and the output from this software garners little trust within an organization. The intention of this book is to underscore the importance of demand forecasting and to demonstrate what an executive should know about it. It discusses the value of forecasting, presents both basic and advanced forecasting models, introduces the subject of time series and the technique of exponential smoothing (critical for accurate forecasts), examines the role that human judgment plays in interpreting the numbers and identifying forecasting errors. Finally, the book offers an organizational context by creating a rational framework that shows how forecasting is an integral part of business planning and demonstrates how to use forecasts within an organization.

With motivated human resources and a rich natural bounty, Myanmar is expected to take off with sustained growth and eventually attain a unique welfare state. On the basis of the authors' field surveys and innumerable dialogues with public officials, private professionals, scholars, and others, in addition to intensive desk studies since around 2000, the present volume lays out the essential ingredients for drawing a roadmap to realise the above-mentioned objective. That goal is, specifically, financial development, adequate social capital, indigenous modern manufactures and closer international tie-ups, among others, but above all, sound agrarian development. An effort has been made to place the required ingredients in their historical contexts, as historical experiences constitute an important sociopolitical condition in which development takes place. Myanmar nationals and readers concerned with the country's economic progress are encouraged to give serious, sustained thought to coming up with a socially supportable roadmap for the country's development path. The present volume provides valuable hints for that purpose.

This book examines the U.S economy from 1967 to 2011 and utilizes a new method to predict the future of the economy as far ahead as 2030. This new method uses population subgroup data. Variables used in the cross-sectional matrix include ethnicity, sex, age, and average personal income of those having personal income. The mathematical basis, the data used, and the results are all presented in graphic form. The estimates are compared to National Bureau of Economic Research Dating Committee data. Projections using estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Census are used to further project personal income, personal income annual change, and disposable personal income to 2030. The book concludes that the New Energy Movement and their development of non-polluting energy and electricity production methods that do not consume uranium, radioactive material, or fossil fuels. Therefore, large amounts of money should be invested in these devices, their development, and implementation.