UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade." -The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.

The geography of services is no longer of local or national significance: it now embraces the international stage. Service industries have enabled, and themselves become participants in, world trade. Although this is not a new role, during the 1980s they have become a much more active ingredient in the process of social and economic change.

New and diversified service products have generated increased consumption, ranging from tourism and leisure, to sophisticated innovations in ways of making finance capital available for corporate growth or production strategies. But there are spatial variations between the world's nations, regions and cities that ensure a highly uneven ability to supply services, and to generate demand. There are contrasts between the developed, less-developed, and post-socialist economies of Eastern Europe, for example, and between major metropolitan areas around the globe in the extent to which they experience the positive (as well as negative) effects of the internationalization of the service economy.

This book examines some explanations for the expanding role of services in the world economy. It is suggested that the resulting patterns are particularly significant for the form and function of the global urban system. The book concludes by reflecting on the future role of services in the world economy: can the trends evident for the 1980s be assumed to shape the evolving geography of services during the 1990s and beyond?

First published in 1913, Richard Parry's Valuation and Investment Tables has since become an essential tool for students and professionals in the study and practice of valuation and appraisal. That the book reached its centenary year in print and now fourteenth edition is a testament to its acclaim by the valuation and property professionals in an era of calculators and computers, and furthermore a tribute to the historical importance of Parry's original vision and continued legacy. The purpose of the book is to provide a comprehensive range of different valuation and investment tables in one volume. Although many of the tables will be used by practicing surveyors for valuation purposes, they will also be useful to accountants and others concerned with various types of investment and financial calculations. Surveyors valuing freehold or leasehold interests in property have the choice of using either (a) annually in arrear, or (b) quarterly in advance figures of years' purchase. The relevant tables for each concept are printed on different coloured edged pages for ease of reference. In practice today, calculations are required for a variety of purposes which often justify more than one approach. To allow for this, Internal Rates of Return tables have been retained. Using these tables, both growth and non-growth scenarios can be analysed for more detailed appraisal of specific freehold properties and to provide a basis for more in-depth investment advice.

An overview of the macroeconomic forecasting industry in the United States that explains and evaluates the forecasting techniques used to make predictions about various aspects of the national economy.

In recent years politics has seen an increasing role in economic policymaking for a technocracy of experts. How do politicians feel about this and how do they balance their political and ethical aims with economic expertise? Anna Killick offers an in-depth study of how politicians engage with economists and economic opinion. Based on interviews with politicians from the main parties in France, Germany, Denmark, the UK and USA, the book highlights the role economic opinion plays in politics and the tension that can arise between democracy and technocracy. Deferring to the experts is shown to be neither viable nor desirable, and that we should trust politicians to take the lead role in solving economic problems.

Economists often look at markets as given, and try to make predictions about who will do what and what will happen in these markets. Market design, by contrast, does not take markets as given; instead, it combines insights from economic and game theory together with common sense and lessons learned from empirical work and experimental analysis to aid in the design and implementation of actual markets In recent years the field has grown dramatically, partially because of the successful wave of spectrum auctions in the US and in Europe, which have been designed by a number of prominent economists, and partially because of the increase use of the Internet as the platform over which markets are designed and run There is now a large number of applications and a growing theoretical literature. The Handbook of Market Design brings together the latest research from leading experts to provide a comprehensive description of applied market design over the last two decades In particular, it surveys matching markets: environments where there is a need to match large two-sided populations to one another, such as medical residents and hospitals, law clerks and judges, or patients and kidney donors It also examines a number of applications related to electronic markets, e-commerce, and the effect of the Internet on competition between exchanges.

This volume uses state of the art models from the frontier of macroeconomics to answer key questions about how the economy functions and how policy should be conducted. The contributions cover a wide range of issues in macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy. They combine high level mathematics with economic analysis, and highlight the need to update our mathematical toolbox in order to understand the increased complexity of the macroeconomic environment. The volume represents hard evidence of high research intensity in many fields of macroeconomics, and warns against interpreting the scope of macroeconomics too narrowly. The mainstream business cycle analysis, based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) modelling of a particular type, has been criticised for its inability to predict or resolve the recent financial crisis. However, macroeconomic research on financial, information, and learning imperfections had not yet made their way into many of the pre-crisis DSGE models because practical econometric versions of those models were mainly designed to fit data periods that did not include financial crises. A major response to the limitations of those older DSGE models is an active research program to bring big financial shocks and various kinds of financial, learning, and labour market frictions into a new generation of DSGE models for guiding policy. The contributors to this book utilise models and modelling assumptions that go beyond particular modelling conventions. By using alternative yet plausible assumptions, they seek to enrich our knowledge and ability to explain macroeconomic phenomena. They contribute to expanding the frontier of macroeconomic knowledge in ways that will prove useful for macroeconomic policy.

Discussing economic theory and English economic history from the eighteenth century until the late 1970s this volume discusses among other things fixed capital and problems with the definition of the premodern economy as well as providing a chronology of 18th century business cycles.

First published in 1972, this book provides an important critical review on the theory of futures trading. B. A. Goss looks at the work and ideas of Keynes and Hicks on futures, and considers how these have also been developed by Kaldor. He discusses the evolution of the concept of hedging in the context of buying forward into the markets, and considers theories of market and individual equilibrium. Goss draws on the work of other economists in this field, including Stein, Telser, Peston and L. L. Johnson, in order to illustrate the development of theory in futures trading. The book includes fifteen figures that illustrate diagrammatically the concepts involved, and the concluding section contains a series of problems for examination by the student.

This lively and provocative look at the tension between economics and politics examines why so many mistakes in economic policy-making are made for political reasons and ignore the economic truths. Using short-term economic gains to ensure electoral success, argues Lorenzo Forni, inevitably spells macroeconomic disaster. Using the state budget, trade policy and monetary policy to prop up labour markets and the wider economy in order to boost voter approval ratings, while ignoring budget constraints can only result in longer recessions and economic downturns. Which then can incur the painful austerity measures needed to bring the economy back into balance. Forni looks at many unsustainable economic policies that have been implemented in parts of the world when the economic realities - there is no magic money tree! - would recommend a different and more prudent economic course.

A provocative look at how and why Britain has fallen into decline from being a superpower in 1914 to being a third world economy in 2014 by two of Britain's leading Economists journalists
With a second recession looming, Britain is facing a moment of truth. Going South examines how the leader of the Industrial Revolution came to exhibit the features of a "developing country." The symptoms of this vertiginous plunge in the world's rankings are already starkly apparent: a chronic balance of payment deficit, a looming shortage of energy and food, a dysfunctional labor market, volatility in economic growth, and a painful vulnerability to external events. And if these are the big indicators of imminent relegation to the Third World, many smaller ones are too numerous to fully catalogue.
So stark is the evidence that it is our contention that Britain's looming relegation is not in doubt. The names change with intellectual fashion--the developing world, the Third World, less-developed countries, "emerging markets," or simply the Global South. But the destination is the same.
Britain is going south--rapidly.
Assuming that Britain faces up to its plight, there is no easy model for the redevelopment of the national economy. Whichever path is taken will be a hard one. The age of the quick fixes is over.

"Scenarios are now a part of every successful manager’s toolkit. This book is the first comprehensive guide to the latest developments in scenario thinking written by today’s leading practitioners in the field." —Napier Collyns, a pioneer of scenario planning at Dutch/Shell now Managing Director, Gloal Business Network (GBN) "In twenty years of helping companies create and plan for their futures, I have never come across a book that dealt with the use of scenario-based planning as comprehensively as this one." —David Kelley CEO, IDEO Product Development the creators of the Apple Mouse "This book is the greatest reference today on scenario planning—the preeminent tool for those who believe that the future belongs to those with the imagination to create it. The combination of scenario planning and strategy formulation can be a wondrous right brain process that galvanizes teams with a compelling vision and common purpose." —David E. Schnedler Director, Corporate Planning Sun Microsystems, Inc. "Organizations must create intellectual and organizational tension around distinctly different views of the future. Learning from the Future demonstrates why scenarios are ideally suited to generate such tension and how to use scenario learning as a steppingstone to superior strategies." —Richard Pascale, Associate Fellow of Oxford University and author of Managing on the Edge: How the Smartest Companies Use Conflict to Stay Ahead "An invaluable guide to the mind-stretching benefits of scenarios that are fully embedded in the strategic thinking process. It should be required reading for any management team embarking on scenario development so they can realize the benefits and evade the pitfalls." —George Day, Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor and Director of the Huntsman Center for Global Competition and Innovation Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

'A roadmap that could turn Africa's potential into prosperity.' - President Cyril Ramaphosa What stops Africa, with its abundant natural resources, from capitalising on its boundless potential? Africa analyst Jakkie Cilliers uses 11 scenarios to unpack, in concrete terms, how the continent can ignite a growth revolution that will take millions out of poverty and into employment. Africa urgently needs much more rapid economic growth. Cilliers identifies and models fundamental transitions required in agriculture, education, demographics, manufacturing and governance and shows how these changes can be brought about. The challenges the continent faces - competing in a globalised world, delivering health care and education, feeding growing populations and grappling with climate change - demand far-sighted policies and determined leadership. Cilliers offers achievable solutions based on African realities. Authoritative and engaging, this work offers a roadmap for how Africa can catch up with the rest of the world.

'A fascinating book . . . Bhaskar is a reassuringly positive and often witty guide' Observer 'A fascinating, must-read book covering a vast array of topics from the arts to the sciences, technology to policy. This is a brilliant and thought-provoking response to one of the most critical questions of our age: how we will come up with the next generation of innovation and truly fresh ideas?' Mustafa Suleyman, cofounder of DeepMind and Google VP 'Have "big ideas" and big social and economic changes disappeared from the scene? Michael Bhaskar's Human Frontiers is the best look at these all-important questions.' Tyler Cowen, author of The Great Stagnation and The Complacent Class 'Michael Bhaskar explores the disturbing possibility that a complacent, cautious civilization has lost ambition and is slowly sinking into technological stagnation rather than accelerating into a magical future. He is calling for bold, adventurous innovators to go big again. A fascinating book' Matt Ridley, author of How Innovation Works Where next for humanity? Is our future one of endless improvement in all areas of life, from technology and travel to medicine, movies and music? Or are our best years behind us? It's easy to assume that the story of modern society is one of consistent, radical progress, but this is no longer true: more academics are researching than ever before but their work leads to fewer breakthroughs; innovation is incremental, limited to the digital sphere; the much-vaunted cure for cancer remains elusive; space travel has stalled since the heady era of the moonshot; politics is stuck in a rut, and the creative industries seem trapped in an ongoing cycle of rehashing genres and classics. The most ambitious ideas now struggle. Our great-great-great grandparents saw a series of transformative ideas revolutionise almost everything in just a few decades. Today, in contrast, short termism, risk aversion, and fractious decision making leaves the landscape timid and unimaginative. In Human Frontiers, Michael Bhaskar draws a vividly entertaining and expansive portrait of humanity's relationship with big ideas. He argues that stasis at the frontier is the result of having already pushed so far, taken easy wins and started to hit limits. But new thinking is still possible. By adopting bold global approaches, deploying cutting edge technology like AI and embracing a culture of change, we can push through and expand afresh. Perfect for anyone who has wondered why we haven't gone further, this book shows in fascinating detail how the 21st century could stall - or be the most revolutionary time in human history.

Quantitative marketing is not an easy subject to grasp. Quantitative Analysis in Marketing Management introduces a kinder, gentler approach to the various quantitative concepts and techniques in marketing management. This exciting new book examines techniques drawn from other management disciplines (e.g. financial management and operations management) and shows how these techniques can be applied to marketing management. To aid comprehension, a number of problems and case studies are included at the end of each chapter. The text is divided into three parts:

• statistics, demand analysis and forecasting;
• financial analysis, operations and control systems; and
• future trends

This book provides research on the human element in forecasting. It focuses on how we can improve our ability to accurately forecast.

To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology.

Uses a problem solving framework to provide students with the means for acquiring the necessary skills in the application of economic theory. Enables them to understand that economic theory does describe authentic relationships by actual people in the existing world.

'A brilliant new book' Daily Telegraph 'Well written . . . and often entertaining' The Times 'A sparkling analysis' Prospect When uncertainty is all around us, and the facts are not clear, how can we make good decisions? We do not know what the future will hold, particularly in the midst of a crisis, but we must make decisions anyway. We regularly crave certainties which cannot exist and invent knowledge we cannot have, forgetting that humans are successful because we have adapted to an environment that we understand only imperfectly. Throughout history we have developed a variety of ways of coping with the radical uncertainty that defines our lives. This incisive and eye-opening book draws on biography, history, mathematics, economics and philosophy to highlight the most successful - and most short-sighted - methods of dealing with an unknowable future. Ultimately, the authors argue, the prevalent method of our age falls short, giving us a false understanding of our power to make predictions, leading to many of the problems we experience today. Tightly argued, provocative and written with wit and flair, Radical Uncertainty is at once an exploration of the limits of numbers and a celebration of human instinct and wisdom.

An upbeat antidote to the gloom and doom forecasts of the financial future

Just about everyone is worried about the economy and markets. And the fear is that they will stay down for a long time. But a few brave voices say that the gloom and doom forecasts are just too pessimistic. Reality is that entrepreneurs don't give up. History is pretty clear, every time the economy is thought to be done, worn out, finished, it bounces back and heads to new highs. In fact, the economy and the markets-counter to conventional wisdom-have started to improve in the first half of 2009. Even housing is showing some signs of life.

With "It's Not as Bad as You Think, "Brian Wesbury, ranked as one of the top economic forecasters by the "Wall Street Journal" and "USA Today, " shows you that while the financial future may be hard to predict, it will ultimately be profitable over the long haul. In this easy-to-follow and engaging forecast of the future, Wesbury takes a look at the good, the bad, and the ugly-and debunks the pouting pundits of pessimism to show you how to prosper now and in the future.An optimistic look at the economy and the markets written by one of today's foremost financial forecastersPresents a roadmap to seek opportunities in all the panicShows you how to analyze economic indicators and government policy to grow your wealth so you don't lose by hiding under the bed

A breath of fresh air, Wesbury's objectivity and optimism provide welcome relief to the daily bad news stories, as he sets us all up to capitalize on tomorrow's great possibilities.

Originally published in 1972 this book examines technological forecasting and assesses its merits and limitations and possible uses for society, government, industry and the military. Although technological forecasting was in its infancy when this book was originally published, it has now become part of mainstream social and economic planning.

The first book for a popular audience on the transformative, democratising technology of 'DeFi'.

After over a decade of Bitcoin, which has now moved beyond lore and hype into an increasingly robust star in the firmament of global assets, a new and more important question has arisen. What happens beyond Bitcoin? The answer is decentralised finance - 'DeFi'.

Tech and finance experts Steven Boykey Sidley and Simon Dingle argue that DeFi - which enables all manner of financial transactions to take place directly, person to person, without the involvement of financial institutions - will redesign the cogs and wheels in the engines of trust, and make the remarkable rise of Bitcoin look quaint by comparison. It will disrupt and displace fine and respectable companies, if not entire industries.

Sidley and Dingle explain how DeFi works, introduce the organisations and individuals that comprise the new industry, and identify the likely winners and losers in the coming revolution.

The information age has brought greater interconnection across the world, and transformed the global marketplace. To remain competitive, business firms look for ways of improving their ability to gauge business and economic conditions around the world. At the same time, advances in technology have revolutionized the way we process information and prepare business and economic forecasts. Secondary data searches, data collection, data entry and analysis, graphical visualization, and reporting can all be accomplished with the help of computers that provide access to information not previously available. Forecasters should therefore learn the techniques and models involved, as applied in this new era. Business Forecasting: A Practical Approach is intended as an applied text for students and practitioners of forecasting who have some background in economics and statistics. The presentation is conceptual in nature with emphasis on rationale, application, and interpretation of the most commonly used forecasting techniques. The goal of this book is to provide students and managers with an overview of a broad range of techniques and an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. It is based on the assumption that forecasting skills are best developed and retained by starting with simple models, followed by repeated exposure to real world examples. The book makes extensive use of international examples to amplify concepts.

This Handbook is a comprehensive anthology of up-to-date chapters contributed by current researchers in budget forecasting. Editors Daniel Williams and Thad Calabrese had previously found substantial deficiencies in public budgeting forecast literature with current research failing to address such matters as practices related to forecasting expenditure factors, the consequences of forecast bias, or empirical examination of the effectiveness of many deterministic methods actually used by many governments. This volume comprehensively addresses the state of knowledge about budget forecasting for practitioners, academics, and students and serves as a comprehensive resource for instruction alongside serving as a reference book for those engaged in budget forecasting practice.

This book, and its companion volume in the Econometric Society Monographs series (ESM number 33), present a collection of papers by Clive W. J. Granger. His contributions to economics and econometrics, many of them seminal, span more than four decades and touch on all aspects of time series analysis. The papers assembled in this volume explore topics in spectral analysis, seasonality, nonlinearity, methodology, and forecasting. Those in the companion volume investigate themes in causality, integration and cointegration, and long memory. The two volumes contain the original articles as well as an introduction written by the editors.