Given the magnitude of currency speculation and sports gambling, it is surprising that the literature contains mostly negative forecasting results. Majority opinion still holds that short term fluctuations in financial markets follow random walk. In this non-random walk through financial and sports gambling markets, parallels are drawn between modeling short term currency movements and modeling outcomes of athletic encounters. The forecasting concepts and methodologies are identical; only the variables change names. If, in fact, these markets are driven by mechanisms of non-random walk, there must be some explanation for the negative forecasting results. The Analysis of Sports Forecasting: Modeling Parallels Between Sports Gambling and Financial Markets examines this issue.

In this fourth volume of The Deals of Warren Buffett, we trace Buffett’s journey as he made Berkshire Hathaway the most respected company in the world.

When we left Buffett at the end of Volume 3 towards the end of the 1990s, he was leading the largest corporation in America and his personal fortune had reached $40 billion. In this enthralling next instalment, we follow Buffett’s investment deals over the first few years of the 21st century, as Berkshire grew to become a giant with annual profits north of $4 billion.

Buffett, then in his early 70s, was still tap dancing to work, thoroughly enjoying analysing companies, finding bargains and interacting with his growing team of managers.

By studying the decision-making that went into his investment deals and the successful and unsuccessful outcomes, we can learn from Buffett and become better investors ourselves.

During this period, exploiting the low prices following the dot-com crash, Buffett made investments in the following companies: MidAmerican Energy, CORT, Moody’s, H&R Block, Shaw Industries, Star Furniture, Jordan’s Furniture, Ben Bridge Jeweler, Justin Boot, Acme Brick, Benjamin Moore and CTB.

For each of these deals, investing expert and Buffett historian Glen Arnold dives into unprecedented detail to analyse the investment rationale, the stories of the individuals involved and, where possible, the profits Buffett made.

Significant, and usually unwelcome, surprises, such as floods, financial crisis, epileptic seizures, or material rupture, are the topics of Extreme Events in Nature and Society. The book, authored by foremost experts in these fields, reveals unifying and distinguishing features of extreme events, including problems of understanding and modelling their origin, spatial and temporal extension, and potential impact. The chapters converge towards the difficult problem of anticipation: forecasting the event and proposing measures to moderate or prevent it. Extreme Events in Nature and Society will interest not only specialists, but also the general reader eager to learn how the multifaceted field of extreme events can be viewed as a coherent whole.

This book demonstrates the applications of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in exchange rate determination as well as more practical applications of salary comparison and the cost-of living across borders. It uses The Economist's annual Big Mac Index in place of the traditional basket of services used in PPP research. The author demonstrates that this is a good solution to the index-number problem since it is readily available and more appealing as an international monetary standard. The book also shows how The Big Mac Index could have been used to predict the Asian Currency Crisis and the Mexican Peso stand-off where more traditional economic measures failed.

This report is a partial result of the China's Quarterly Macroeconometric Model (CQMM), a project developed and maintained by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. The CMR is one of the Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China, focusing on China's economic forecast and macroeconomic policy analysis. The CMR started to develop the CQMM for purpose of short-term forecasting, policy analysis, and simulation in 2005. Based on the CQMM, the CMR and its partners hold press conferences to release forecasts for China' major macroeconomic variables. Since July, 2006, twenty-two quarterly reports on China's macroeconomic outlook have been presented and eleventh annual reports have been published. This 23rd quarterly report is to be presented at the Forum on China's Macroeconomic Outlook and Press Conference of CQMM on October 27, 2017. This conference is jointly held at Oxford University by Oxford Prospects and Global Development Centre, University of Oxford, Center for Macroeconomic Research at Xiamen University, and Economic Information Daily at Xinhua News Agency.

Handbook of the Economics of Marketing, Volume One: Marketing and Economics mixes empirical work in industrial organization with quantitative marketing tools, presenting tactics that help researchers tackle problems with a balance of intuition and skepticism. It offers critical perspectives on theoretical work within economics, delivering a comprehensive, critical, up-to-date, and accessible review of the field that has always been missing. This literature summary of research at the intersection of economics and marketing is written by, and for, economists, and the book's authors share a belief in analytical and integrated approaches to marketing, emphasizing data-driven, result-oriented, pragmatic strategies.

This book contends that central bank policy pits the Federal Reserve against consumers, creating business cycles and inflation. As the cycle proceeds, the velocity of money starts to rise, complicating the central bank's problems. Ultimately, either a depression or a runaway inflation develops. The gold standard would not alter patterns of supply and demand and would prevent business cycles and inflation.

Central bank policies inevitably alter patterns of supply and demand from what they would be, based on consumer sovereignty. This changes the mix of human and physical capital available to produce a mixture of consumer goods. The economy struggles to right itself against these imbalances. Ultimately, the monetary velocity and price inflation start to rise, worsening the government's problems. In time, either a traditional depression or a runaway inflation results. The gold standard would prevent the twin evils of recession and price inflation. Investment professionals, corporate economists and others in strategic and financial planning capacities will find Mr. Marquard's book both challenging and provocative.

The US Gulf of Mexico is one of the largest and most prolific offshore hydrocarbon basins in the world with thousands of structures installed in the region and tens of thousands of wells drilled. Over the past decade, a significant number of structures in shallow water have been decommissioned, as operators can no longer "kick the decommissioning can" down the road. This has opened up new markets and additional regulatory oversight with far-reaching implications. This book describes future decommissioning trends and issues and provides guidance for operator budgeting, regulatory oversight, and service sector companies interested in participating in the field. Decommissioning Forecasting and Operating Cost Estimation is the first of its kind textbook to develop models to forecast platform decommissioning in the Gulf of Mexico and to better understand the dynamics of offshore production cost. The book bridges the gap between modeling and technical knowledge to provide insight into the sector. Topics are presented in five parts covering fundamentals, structure inventories and well trends, decommissioning modeling, critical infrastructure issues, and operating cost estimation. Factor models and activity-based cost models in operating cost estimation conclude the discussion. Decommissioning Forecasting and Operating Cost Estimation helps oil and gas professionals navigate through this complex and challenging field providing an invaluable resource for academics, researchers, and professionals. The book will also serve government regulators, energy and environmental engineers, offshore managers, financial analyst, and others interested in this fascinating and dynamic industry.

Belief and Rule Compliance: An Experimental Comparison of Muslim and Non-Muslim Economic Behavior uses modern behavioral science and game theory to examine the behavior and compliance of Muslim populations to Islamic Finance laws and norms. The work identifies behaviors characterized by unexpected complexity and profound divergence, including expectations for sharing, cooperation and entrepreneurship gleaned from studies. Adopting a unique set of recent empirical observations, the work provides a reliable behavioral foundation for practitioners seeking to evaluate, create and market Islamic financial products.

International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.

From the New York Times bestselling authors of Abundance and Bold comes a practical playbook for technological convergence in our modern era. In their book Abundance, bestselling authors and futurists Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler tackled grand global challenges, such as poverty, hunger, and energy. Then, in Bold, they chronicled the use of exponential technologies that allowed the emergence of powerful new entrepreneurs. Now the bestselling authors are back with The Future Is Faster Than You Think, a blueprint for how our world will change in response to the next ten years of rapid technological disruption. Technology is accelerating far more quickly than anyone could have imagined. During the next decade, we will experience more upheaval and create more wealth than we have in the past hundred years. In this gripping and insightful roadmap to our near future, Diamandis and Kotler investigate how wave after wave of exponentially accelerating technologies will impact both our daily lives and society as a whole. What happens as AI, robotics, virtual reality, digital biology, and sensors crash into 3D printing, blockchain, and global gigabit networks? How will these convergences transform today's legacy industries? What will happen to the way we raise our kids, govern our nations, and care for our planet? Diamandis, a space-entrepreneur-turned-innovation-pioneer, and Kotler, bestselling author and peak performance expert, probe the science of technological convergence and how it will reinvent every part of our lives-transportation, retail, advertising, education, health, entertainment, food, and finance-taking humanity into uncharted territories and reimagining the world as we know it. As indispensable as it is gripping, The Future Is Faster Than You Think provides a prescient look at our impending future.

Changing the Indian Economy: Renewal, Reform and Revival explores the fact that post-Modi India is witnessing unprecedented socioeconomic change, truly labeled as Modi's Mantra and his attempts to morph the Indian economic landscape. India is using an intelligent economic process for its renewal and growth, however, in a recent study by Nomura, 2016, The Japanese Financial Services firm, it is reported that there is downside risk to India's baseline forecast of 7.8 per cent GDP growth in 2016. Although the report suggests that there was a mid-cycle consolidation in mid-2014, the recovery seems to be losing momentum. This book offers a novel, but inclusive outlook to the entire post-Modi economic overhaul.

During the 1990s Francis Fukuyama announced the end of history. The 2000s showed how it is an illusion to imagine a peaceful world without conflict. In this book the authors explore how six major constraints are set to fix the trajectory of the global economy. Three of them are new: the aging population, the failure of technical progress, and the scarcity of savings. The other three have been at work for some time: the explosion of inequality, the mass transfer of activities from one end of the world to the other, and the limitless financialization of economy. They suggest that like seismic activity which depends on pressure between tectonic plates, the political and social tensions will be exacerbated in the coming years by these major forces. They propose that authorities will be incapable of preventing neither the date nor the intensity of the coming earthquakes, and ask the question: Are we able to cope with these future shocks and the violence they are sure to cause?

This book focuses on the competitive situation and policy outlook of China's provincial economy in the 13th five-year period. It begins with a general evaluation report on the country's provincial comprehensive Economic Competitiveness, followed by analyses at the international, national and regional levels, industrial and enterprise levels. On the basis of domestic and international research findings, it further enriches our understanding of provincial competitiveness, analyzes the domestic and international situation, explores new changes, new norms, new situations and new challenges concerning China's provincial economy in the past few years, reveals the characteristics and relative differences of different types, defines their internal competitive strengths and weaknesses, and provides valuable theoretical content to guide decision-making.

This book investigates why economics makes less visible progress over time than scientific fields with a strong practical component, where interactions with physical technologies play a key role. The thesis of the book is that the main impediment to progress in economics is "false feedback", which it defines as the false result of an empirical study, such as empirical evidence produced by a statistical model that violates some of its assumptions. In contrast to scientific fields that work with physical technologies, false feedback is hard to recognize in economics. Economists thus have difficulties knowing where they stand in their inquiries, and false feedback will regularly lead them in the wrong directions. The book searches for the reasons behind the emergence of false feedback. It thereby contributes to a wider discussion in the field of metascience about the practices of researchers when pursuing their daily business. The book thus offers a case study of metascience for the field of empirical economics. The main strength of the book are the numerous smaller insights it provides throughout. The book delves into deep discussions of various theoretical issues, which it illustrates by many applied examples and a wide array of references, especially to philosophy of science. The book puts flesh on complicated and often abstract subjects, particularly when it comes to controversial topics such as p-hacking. The reader gains an understanding of the main challenges present in empirical economic research and also the possible solutions. The main audience of the book are all applied researchers working with data and, in particular, those who have found certain aspects of their research practice problematic.

This book analyses and explains the nature of the economies of small countries and territories. It includes an assessment of material prosperity in 41 small open economies worldwide, with case studies focusing on the Caribbean and Central America, with a review of the development of their economies in recent decades. The volume recommends a suite of economic policy tools for the management of these economies, demonstrating how these may best be employed in economies that live and breathe through international commerce. Among observations of interest is the fact that the devaluation of the local currency of a small nation makes the country worse off; even a currency that maintains its value is little more than a trophy, of little value if it is not readily convertible into US dollars. Also, that while government policies affect international competitiveness and a small country's growth prospects, more important is how governments use additional resources to improve the quality of health and educational services. Moreover, economic windfalls such as the discovery of mineral resources seldom bring prosperity commensurate with their economic value, and never in the short run. The volume will offer invaluable information and analysis to researchers and policy makers investigating small open economies.

This book analyses and explains the nature of the economies of small countries and territories. It includes an assessment of material prosperity in 41 small open economies worldwide, with case studies focusing on the Caribbean and Central America, with a review of the development of their economies in recent decades. The volume recommends a suite of economic policy tools for the management of these economies, demonstrating how these may best be employed in economies that live and breathe through international commerce. Among observations of interest is the fact that the devaluation of the local currency of a small nation makes the country worse off; even a currency that maintains its value is little more than a trophy, of little value if it is not readily convertible into US dollars. Also, that while government policies affect international competitiveness and a small country's growth prospects, more important is how governments use additional resources to improve the quality of health and educational services. Moreover, economic windfalls such as the discovery of mineral resources seldom bring prosperity commensurate with their economic value, and never in the short run. The volume will offer invaluable information and analysis to researchers and policy makers investigating small open economies.

Sub-Saharan Africa is vastly diverse, and the 49 countries of the region range significantly in terms of population, size and economic scale. The region also differs in topography, climate, history, culture, languages and political systems. Given this vast diversity, it is, accordingly, difficult to draw general conclusions about the continent's economic performance as a whole. Additionally, the lack of current statistics for several countries makes it difficult to make accurate assessments of economic conditions. Nevertheless, some broad comparisons can be made: of the world's developing areas, sub-Saharan Africa has the worst record in virtually all of the most important social and economic indicators: the region has the lowest gross national income per head, the lowest life expectancy at birth, the lowest youth literacy rate, the highest rate of adult HIV infection and the highest number of children not living past five years of age. This volume begins by examining recent economic developments and trends. It then looks at the major economic constraints the region has faced in recent years, breaking down those constraints as either 'external' (e.g. terms of trade) over which the individual countries have but limited control, or 'internal' (e.g. governance and economic policy), over which there is more control. The book concludes by arguing that, despite the notable challenges cited above, sub-Saharan Africa is poised for a transformation, based on closer regional economic co-operation, a growing middle class, increased demand for locally produced goods and services, and a young population.

In 1956, Solow proposed a neoclassical growth model in opposition or as an alternative to Keynesian growth models. The Solow model of economic growth provided foundations for models embedded in the new theory of economic growth, known as the theory of endogenous growth, such as the renowned growth models developed by Paul M. Romer and Robert E. Lucas in the 1980s and 90s. The augmentations of the Solow model described in this book, excepting the Phelps golden rules of capital accumulation and the Mankiw-Romer-Weil and Nonneman-Vanhoudt models, were developed by the authors over the last two decades. The book identifies six spheres of interest in modern macroeconomic theory: the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on growth; the effect of different returns to scale on production; the influence of mobility of factors of production among different countries on their development; the effect of population dynamics on growth; the periodicity of investment rates and their influence on growth; and the effect of exogenous shocks in the form of an epidemic. For each of these issues, the authors construct and analyze an appropriate growth model that focuses on the description of the specific macroeconomic problem. This book not only continues the neoclassical tradition of thought in economics focused on quantitative economic change but also, and to a significant extent, discusses alternative approaches to certain questions of economic growth, utilizing conclusions that can be drawn from the Solow model. It is a useful tool in analyzing contemporary issues related to growth.

The asset management industry is one of the essential sources of economic growth in a country since it functions as an intermediary between savings and investments. The asset management industry is also important for financial markets to ensure new funds and it helps investors to achieve their investment goals. Therefore, the aim of this study is to analyze the fund management industry in an emerging market. In this book, we first reviewed the fund performance measurement ratios and then evaluated these performance measures of mutual and pension funds in Turkey between 2010 and 2019 to determine whether the funds generate alphas (excess returns). The risk-adjusted performance measures (Sharpe, Treynor, Information, Jensen's alpha, Sortino, and Omega ratios) were calculated to see if the funds generated excess risk-adjusted returns during the analyzed period.

This book deals with the effects of international trade on economic growth and money. It also re-examines Keynesian theory and analyzes economic growth in an affluent society in terms of planning, economic and social policy.

"An ambitious, intelligent, and very readable guide to understanding our present and our future." —Harry Beckwith, Principal, Beckwith Advertising and Marketing and author of Selling the Invisible

No one can foretell the future. Or can they? There are many who purport to —and they are making a fortune. From meteorologists who give us our daily weather forecasts to investment advisers who project tomorrow's hottest stock, these and numerous other prognosticating professionals are part of a multibillion-dollar industry that's growing every day. No longer merely fortunetellers, they are fortune sellers, offering us a commodity we're more than eager to buy: the future.

In this piercing and provocative exposé, William Sherden, a seasoned consultant and expert on business forecasting, casts an unblinking eye on the booming business of predicting the future, from its major players to the ultimate validity and value of the information they proffer. Debunking false prophecy and analyzing assertions of forecasting skill, Sherden separates fact from fallacy to show us not only how best to use the forecasts we're given, but how to "select the nuggets of valuable future advice from amongst the $200 billion worth of mostly erroneous future predictions put forth each year."

The Fortune Sellers contains in-depth explorations of the seven most prevalent forecasting professions today —meteorology, economics, investments, technology assessment, demography, futurology, and organizational planning. As Sherden uncovers their historical roots and traces their track records, he deftly reveals just how accurate —or inaccurate —their predictions really are. Fascinating historical facts, scores of actual examples, and a wealth of eye-opening statistics illuminate the difference between reliable real-world information and spurious guesswork. In The Fortune Sellers, you'll discover how:

• Anyone who is counting on a weather forecast more than a day or two in advance might just as well flip a coin
• Economics earned its nickname —the "dismal science" —and why it sticks
• Profits from prediction work on Wall Street
• Academia, business, and the media feed our fascination with science fact and fiction and future technology
• Futurists —predictors of societal change —use the infirm foundations of social science to predict everything from utopia to techno-totalitarianism
• Prognosticators failed to predict many milestone events, including the stock market crash of 1929, the recession of the 1980s, and the fall of East Berlin.

An intriguing and utterly fascinating exploration of the methods and the madness of today's growing number of future "experts," The Fortune Sellers is not to be missed —and that's no speculation.

Today econometrics has been widely applied in the empirical study of economics. As an empirical science, econometrics uses rigorous mathematical and statistical methods for economic problems. Understanding the methodologies of both econometrics and statistics is a crucial departure for econometrics. The primary focus of this book is to provide an understanding of statistical properties behind econometric methods. Following the introduction in Chapter 1, Chapter 2 provides the methodological review of both econometrics and statistics in different periods since the 1930s. Chapters 3 and 4 explain the underlying theoretical methodologies for estimated equations in the simple regression and multiple regression models and discuss the debates about p-values in particular. This part of the book offers the reader a richer understanding of the methods of statistics behind the methodology of econometrics. Chapters 5-9 of the book are focused on the discussion of regression models using time series data, traditional causal econometric models, and the latest statistical techniques. By concentrating on dynamic structural linear models like state-space models and the Bayesian approach, the book alludes to the fact that this methodological study is not only a science but also an art. This work serves as a handy reference book for anyone interested in econometrics, particularly in relevance to students and academic and business researchers in all quantitative analysis fields.

This book addresses one of the most important research activities in empirical macroeconomics. It provides a course of advanced but intuitive methods and tools enabling the spatial and temporal disaggregation of basic macroeconomic variables and the assessment of the statistical uncertainty of the outcomes of disaggregation. The empirical analysis focuses mainly on GDP and its growth in the context of Poland. However, all of the methods discussed can be easily applied to other countries. The approach used in the book views spatial and temporal disaggregation as a special case of the estimation of missing observations (a topic on missing data analysis). The book presents an econometric course of models of Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE). The main advantage of using the SURE specification is to tackle the presented research problem so that it allows for the heterogeneity of the parameters describing relations between macroeconomic indicators. The book contains model specification, as well as descriptions of stochastic assumptions and resulting procedures of estimation and testing. The method also addresses uncertainty in the estimates produced. All of the necessary tests and assumptions are presented in detail. The results are designed to serve as a source of invaluable information making regional analyses more convenient and - more importantly - comparable. It will create a solid basis for making conclusions and recommendations concerning regional economic policy in Poland, particularly regarding the assessment of the economic situation. This is essential reading for academics, researchers, and economists with regional analysis as their field of expertise, as well as central bankers and policymakers.