Japan will recover and its economic achievements will once again earn the world's admiration, with sustained annual growth of three percent, perhaps more, well within reach. This is the confident forecast that begins Japanese Phoenix: The Long Road to Economic Revival by the author of Japan: The System That Soured, which several years ago accurately predicted Japan's current travails at a time when others were prematurely pronouncing full recovery. Katz warns however that there is bad news to go with the good. So deep-seated are Japan's dysfunctions that, even if it did everything right today, it would take at least five years for truly vibrant growth to take hold. But Japan will not do everything right. Opposition to reform is deep-seated and a myriad of vested interests and millions of jobs are at stake. Still he notes, there is little doubt that reform will succeed. Japanese Phoenix tells the story of the struggle between the forces of reform and the forces of resistance. It dissects Prime Minister Koizumi's role in the process, and explains why Japan is in so much trouble and what needs to be done. It explore the debates among economists and gives a careful progress report on all the moves made so far in the name of reform - from greater direct foreign investment, to the financial "Big Bang", to ending one-party rule by the Liberal Democratic Party. Katz concludes that this is just the second round of a 15-round fight. Japan is a great nation currently trapped in obsolete institutions. As it has before, Japan will find a way to surmount its problems and regain its forward progress.

"This is a definitive, excellent book on Elliott, and I recommend it to all who have an interest in the Wave Principle." Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters
"Gold and Silver Today wholeheartedly endorses this book. It is the definitive work on a scientific wave theory of human experience. If you are interested in technical or wave analysis, it should be required reading." Gold & Silver Today
"This book is extremely well done. It is clear, brief and bold....by far the most useful and comprehensive for both the beginner and the veteran." William Dilanni, Wellington Mgmt. Co.
"An outstanding job...I don't think a better basic handbook of Elliott Wave theory could be written." Donald J. Hoppe, Business and Investment Analysis
"...A top-drawer reference for serious technical analysts....all the nuts and bolts necessary to do their own Elliott Wave assembly." Futures Magazine
"Chapter Three is the best description of Fibonacci numbers we've seen in print and that alone is worth the price of the book." Janes Dines, The Dines Letter
"In a third of a lifetime in this business, this was the first time I really understood Elliott, and this is certainly the first book on Elliott that I could recommend. All the methods that Prechter has used so successfully are fully described in this book." The Professional Investor
"Elliott Wave Principle is such an important, fascinating, even mind-bending work, we are convinced that it should be read by and and every serious student of the market, be they fundamentalist or technician, dealing in stocks, bonds or commodities." Market Decisions
"Even allowing for minor stumbles, that 1978 prediction must go down as the most remarkable stick market prediction of all time." James W. Cowan, Monitor Money Review
Recipient of the Technical Analysis Association's Award of Excellence

In recent years politics has seen an increasing role in economic policymaking for a technocracy of experts. How do politicians feel about this and how do they balance their political and ethical aims with economic expertise? Anna Killick offers an in-depth study of how politicians engage with economists and economic opinion. Based on interviews with politicians from the main parties in France, Germany, Denmark, the UK and USA, the book highlights the role economic opinion plays in politics and the tension that can arise between democracy and technocracy. Deferring to the experts is shown to be neither viable nor desirable, and that we should trust politicians to take the lead role in solving economic problems.

Wall Street Journal Best Seller Finalist: The AMA Leonard L. Berry Book Prize Winner: The Eric Hoffer Book Award (Business) Winner: INDIE Gold Medal Book Award (Business) How are a men's grooming brand and frustrated "stuck-at-work" dads leading a revolution in masculinity post #MeToo? What can the decline of a global lingerie brand and corporate hackathons teach us about how fear can stifle innovation? How does hiring "neuro-diverse" workers and creating empathetic shampoo bottles signal a dramatic shift toward compassion in the workplace? For the past 9 years, marketing expert and Georgetown University Professor Rohit Bhargava has curated his best-selling list of non-obvious trends by asking the questions that most trend predictors miss. In this all-new ninth edition, discover what more than a million readers already have: how to use the power of non-obvious thinking to grow your business and make a bigger impact in the world. In total, the Non-Obvious 2019 edition features 15 all-new trends across 5 categories including Culture; Consumer Behavior, Marketing; Social Media, Media & Education, Technology; Design plus Economics; Entrepreneurship. The book also features a detailed section with a review and rating for more than 115 previously predicted trends, with longevity ratings for each. As with the original version, this new edition of Non-Obvious also delves into the curation process the author has used for years to build his Trend Reports and takes readers behind the scenes of trend curation (much to the delight of past readers who have been asking about this for years), and show them the methodology they can use to predict the future for themselves.

Applied Time Series Modelling and Forecasting provides a relatively non-technical introduction to applied time series econometrics and forecasting involving non-stationary data. The emphasis is very much on the why and how and, as much as possible, the authors confine technical material to boxes or point to the relevant sources for more detailed information.

This book is based on an earlier title Using Cointegration Analysis in Econometric Modelling by Richard Harris. As well as updating material covered in the earlier book, there are two major additions involving panel tests for unit roots and cointegration and forecasting of financial time series. Harris and Sollis have also incorporated as many of the latest techniques in the area as possible including: testing for periodic integration and cointegration; GLS detrending when testing for unit roots; structural breaks and season unit root testing; testing for cointegration with a structural break; asymmetric tests for cointegration; testing for super-exogeniety; seasonal cointegration in multivariate models; and approaches to structural macroeconomic modelling. In addition, the discussion of certain topics, such as testing for unique vectors, has been simplified.

Applied Time Series Modelling and Forecasting has been written for students taking courses in financial economics and forecasting, applied time series, and econometrics at advanced undergraduate and postgraduate levels. It will also be useful for practitioners who wish to understand the application of time series modelling e.g. financial brokers.

Data sets and econometric code for implementing some of the more recent procedures covered in the book can be found on the following web site www.wiley.co.uk/harris

* A useful guide to financial product modeling and to minimizing business risk and uncertainty * Looks at wide range of financial assets and markets and correlates them with enterprises' profitability * Introduces advanced and novel machine learning techniques in finance such as Support Vector Machine, Neural Networks, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, Extreme Learning Machine, Deep Learning Approaches and applies them to analyze finance data sets * Real world applicable examples to further understanding

This book promotes good risk governance and risk management practices to corporate managers, executives, and directors wherever they operate around the world. The major corporate scandals have their roots in governance failure pointing to the link between risk governance and good performance outcomes. This topic is timely and of interest both to the academic community as well as to practicing managers, executives, and directors.
The volume focuses on contemporary risk leadership issues based on recent research insights but avoids excessive technical language and mathematical formulas. The book is framed around the challenges imposed on executives and directors in dealing with an increasingly complex and unpredictable world. This requires a new risk leadership focus that not only avoids the downside risks but also considers ways to exploit the upside potential offered by a dynamic environment. The underlying logic is built on the principles of financial economics where benefits derive from reducing bankruptcy costs and increasing future cash inflows. This provides a stringent framework for analyzing the effect of different risk management actions and behaviors in effective risk-taking organizations. Hence, the book addresses the potential for upside gains as much as the threats of downside losses that represent the conventional risk perspectives. It states the simple fact that you must be willing to take risk to increase strategic responsiveness and corporate manoeuverability. The text builds the arguments in logical steps explicating relevant techniques and practices along the way that invite to immediate applications and practical thinking

This report looks at the prospects for foreign direct investment and international production during and beyond the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic. It not only projects the immediate impact of the crisis on investment flows, but also assesses how it could affect a long-term structural transformation of international production. It reviews the evolution of international production networks over the past three decades and examines the configuration of these networks today. It then projects likely course changes for the next decade due to the combined effects of the pandemic and pre-existing megatrends, including the new industrial revolution, the sustainability imperative and the retreat of laissez faire policies

To fully function in today's global real estate industry, students and professionals increasingly need to understand how to implement essential and cutting-edge quantitative techniques. This book presents an easy-to-read guide to applying quantitative analysis in real estate aimed at non-cognate undergraduate and masters students, and meets the requirements of modern professional practice. Through case studies and examples illustrating applications using data sourced from dedicated real estate information providers and major firms in the industry, the book provides an introduction to the foundations underlying statistical data analysis, common data manipulations and understanding descriptive statistics, before gradually building up to more advanced quantitative analysis, modelling and forecasting of real estate markets. Our examples and case studies within the chapters have been specifically compiled for this book and explicitly designed to help the reader acquire a better understanding of the quantitative methods addressed in each chapter. Our objective is to equip readers with the skills needed to confidently carry out their own quantitative analysis and be able to interpret empirical results from academic work and practitioner studies in the field of real estate and in other asset classes. Both undergraduate and masters level students, as well as real estate analysts in the professions, will find this book to be essential reading.

Sustainability Accounting and Integrated Reporting deals with organizations' assessment, articulation and disclosure of their social and environmental impact on various groups in society. There is increasingly an understanding that financial information does not sufficiently discharge organizational accountability to members of society who are demanding an account of the social and environmental impacts of companies' and other organizations' activities. As a result, organizations report ever more social and environmental information, and there are simultaneous movements towards providing the information in an integrated fashion, showing how social and environmental activities influence each other, members of society and the financial aims of the organization. The book Sustainability Accounting and Integrated Reporting provides a broad and comprehensive review of the field, focusing on the interconnection between different elements of these topics, often dealt with in isolation. The book examines the accounting involved in the collection and analysis of data, control processes over the data, how information is reported to external parties, and the assurance of the information being reported. The book thereby provides an overview useful to practitioners (including sustainability managers, consultants, members of the accounting profession, and other assurance providers), academics, and students.

Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics.

The excessive pursuit of economic interests has resulted in severe environmental and social problems, such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and inequality and disparity. There is an urgent need for broader measures of progress to complement Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This book provides a wide range of economic evaluations of environmental and societal issues including climate change, emission problem from garbage landfills, and income inequality. The book explains that sustainability indicators and well-being measures can be effective guide for policy making and how they can strike a balance between economic, environmental, and societal interests. This book summarizes current practices and theories of economic evaluation for sustainability and provides understanding of emerging trends in this area. It also stresses the importance of environmental policies and business actions in achieving sustainable growth and puts forth why countries should take natural capital and other conventional inputs into consideration.

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting is a blind refereed serial publication published on an annual basis. The objective of this research annual is to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making. (An accurate, robust forecast is critical to effective decision making.) It is the hope and direction of the research annual to become an applications and practitioner-oriented publication.
The topics will normally include sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgmentally-based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, forecasting for strategic business decisions, improvements in forecasting accuracy, and sales response models. It is both the hope and direction of the editorial board to stimulate the interest of the practitioners of forecasting to methods and techniques that are relevant.
In Volume 5, there are sections devoted to financial applications of forecasting, as well as demand forecasting. There is, also, a section on general business applications of forecasting, as well as one on forecasting methodologies.
*Presents state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making.
*Publishes annually

Quantitative marketing is not an easy subject to grasp. Quantitative Analysis in Marketing Management introduces a kinder, gentler approach to the various quantitative concepts and techniques in marketing management. This exciting new book examines techniques drawn from other management disciplines (e.g. financial management and operations management) and shows how these techniques can be applied to marketing management. To aid comprehension, a number of problems and case studies are included at the end of each chapter. The text is divided into three parts:

• statistics, demand analysis and forecasting;
• financial analysis, operations and control systems; and
• future trends

This book provides research on the human element in forecasting. It focuses on how we can improve our ability to accurately forecast.

Using data science in order to solve a problem requires a scientific mindset more than coding skills. Data Science for Supply Chain Forecasting, Second Edition contends that a true scientific method which includes experimentation, observation, and constant questioning must be applied to supply chains to achieve excellence in demand forecasting. This second edition adds more than 45 percent extra content with four new chapters including an introduction to neural networks and the forecast value added framework. Part I focuses on statistical "traditional" models, Part II, on machine learning, and the all-new Part III discusses demand forecasting process management. The various chapters focus on both forecast models and new concepts such as metrics, underfitting, overfitting, outliers, feature optimization, and external demand drivers. The book is replete with do-it-yourself sections with implementations provided in Python (and Excel for the statistical models) to show the readers how to apply these models themselves. This hands-on book, covering the entire range of forecasting-from the basics all the way to leading-edge models-will benefit supply chain practitioners, forecasters, and analysts looking to go the extra mile with demand forecasting.

Part of a series which focuses on advances in futures and options research, this volume discusses a variety of topics in the field.

This seventh volume in the series covers a variety of topics in financial planning and forecasting.

The European public debt problem was in the making long before the 2007-2009 recession, as budget deficits had become endemic. A similar crisis is now developing in America, where the same fundamental causes have been at work. The Public Debt Problem analyzes the situation of public debts in America and reviews official forecasts for the federal government. The author carefully explains the main concepts (budget deficit, public debt, etc.) and analytical tools (discounting, government accounting, Treasury securities, bonds, yields, etc.) necessary to understand the issues.

A provocative look at how and why Britain has fallen into decline from being a superpower in 1914 to being a third world economy in 2014 by two of Britain's leading Economists journalists
With a second recession looming, Britain is facing a moment of truth. Going South examines how the leader of the Industrial Revolution came to exhibit the features of a "developing country." The symptoms of this vertiginous plunge in the world's rankings are already starkly apparent: a chronic balance of payment deficit, a looming shortage of energy and food, a dysfunctional labor market, volatility in economic growth, and a painful vulnerability to external events. And if these are the big indicators of imminent relegation to the Third World, many smaller ones are too numerous to fully catalogue.
So stark is the evidence that it is our contention that Britain's looming relegation is not in doubt. The names change with intellectual fashion--the developing world, the Third World, less-developed countries, "emerging markets," or simply the Global South. But the destination is the same.
Britain is going south--rapidly.
Assuming that Britain faces up to its plight, there is no easy model for the redevelopment of the national economy. Whichever path is taken will be a hard one. The age of the quick fixes is over.

A practical guide to understanding economic forecasts In Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts, UBS Chief U.S. Economist Maury Harris helps readers improve their own forecasting abilities by examining the elements and processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts. The book: *Provides insights from Maury Harris, named among Bloomberg's 50 Most Influential People in Global Finance. *Demonstrates "best practices" in the assembly and evaluation of forecasts. Harris walks readers through the real-life steps he and other successful forecasters take in preparing their projections. These valuable procedures can help forecast users evaluate forecasts and forecasters as inputs for making their own specific business and investment decisions. *Emphasizes the critical role of judgment in improving projections derived from purely statistical methodologies. Harris explores the prerequisites for sound forecasting judgment a good sense of history and an understanding of contemporary theoretical frameworks in readable and illuminating detail. *Addresses everyday forecasting issues, including the credibility of government statistics and analyses, fickle consumers, and volatile business spirits. Harris also offers procedural guidelines for special circumstances, such as natural disasters, terrorist threats, gyrating oil and stock prices, and international economic crises. *Evaluates major contemporary forecasting issues including the now commonplace hypothesis of sustained economic sluggishness, possible inflation outcomes in an environment of falling unemployment, and projecting interest rates when central banks implement unprecedented low interest rate and quantitative easing (QE) policies. *Brings to life Harris's own experiences and those of other leading economists in his almost four-decade career as a professional economist and forecaster. Dr. Harris presents his personal recipes for long-term credibility and commercial success to anyone offering advice about the future.

Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.

This book offers a wide-ranging overview of the state of labour market forecasting in selected OECD countries. Besides presenting forecasting models, the contributions provide an introduction to past experiences of forecasting, highlight the requirements for building appropriate data sets and present the most up-to-date forecasts available. In most cases the forecasts project mismatches in the labour market as they are likely to occur in the coming years with respect to occupational groups, qualifications and employment in specific sectors. The authors demonstrate how these insights might be used to help reduce employment risks both for the individual worker and the national labour market as a whole. The country examples also show how information on labour market trends is disseminated and used by various actors, such as policymakers, firms and individuals. In a world of rapid structural change, the results of the research presented in this book could help cushion the impact of potential shocks from future mismatches and skill shortages in the job market. Policymakers at the supranational, national and regional level, and academics in the fields of labour market theory and policy can all draw valuable information from this insightful study.

Applied Econometrics: A Practical Guide is an extremely user-friendly and application-focused book on econometrics. Unlike many econometrics textbooks which are heavily theoretical on abstractions, this book is perfect for beginners and promises simplicity and practicality to the understanding of econometric models. Written in an easy-to-read manner, the book begins with hypothesis testing and moves forth to simple and multiple regression models. It also includes advanced topics: Endogeneity and Two-stage Least Squares Simultaneous Equations Models Panel Data Models Qualitative and Limited Dependent Variable Models Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Models Autocorrelation and ARCH/GARCH Models Unit Root and Cointegration The book also illustrates the use of computer software (EViews, SAS and R) for economic estimating and modeling. Its practical applications make the book an instrumental, go-to guide for solid foundation in the fundamentals of econometrics. In addition, this book includes excerpts from relevant articles published in top-tier academic journals. This integration of published articles helps the readers to understand how econometric models are applied to real-world use cases.