Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalize existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.

'A well-researched and thought-provoking book' Telegraph '2020: World of War is an informed piece of strategic speculation and analysis. Its official distribution should start at Number 10 Downing Street, with the book being quickly shared within the UK's national security apparatus, and perhaps usefully in Washington and European capitals, too.' Mungo Melvin, The RUSI Journal 'A timely and cogent reminder that history never ends and is about to be made' - Tim Marshall, author of Prisoners of Geography 'This informed and expert book examines credible scenarios of what might happen, could happen and hopefully won't happen' - Lord George Robertson, former NATO Secretary General '2020: World of War should be read by our political leaders, policy makers and horizon scanners alike' - General Sir Richard Shirreff 'This expert consideration of potential conflicts will be invaluable to us all - not just the policy makers and politicians who will have to deal with those issues' - Jonathan Powell, former Chief of Staff, 10 Downing Street 'Knowing the unknown is the first step in making sure what we fear most doesn't happen' - Jonathan Powell, former Chief of Staff, 10 Downing Street With the world already struggling to contain conflicts on several continents, with security and defence expenditure under huge pressure, it's time to think the unthinkable and explore what might happen. As former soldiers now working in defence strategy and conflict resolution, Paul Cornish and Kingsley Donaldson are perfectly qualified to guide us through a credible and utterly convincing 20/20 vision of the year 2020, from cyber security to weapons technology, from geopolitics to undercover operations. This book is of global importance, offering both analysis and creative solutions - essential reading both for decision-makers and everyone who simply wants to understand our future.

This book provides an introduction to the methods employed in forecasting the future state of the economy. It provides a comprehensive coverage of methods and applications in this fast-growing area and is intended for use in postgraduate and upper-level undergraduate courses. Part I outlines the available techniques, particularly those used in business forecasting and econometric forecasting. The state of the art in time series modelling is reviewed and includes a discussion of Box-Jenkins models, the vector autogressive approach and cointegration. Ways of combining forecasts are also examined in detail. Part II considers the most important applications of forecasting. Applications in microeconomics include demand and sales forecasting, the use of anticipations data, leading indicators and scenario analysis. In macroeconomics the emphasis is on why errors occur in forecasting asset market prices, including implications of the efficient markets hypothesis for foreign markets, stock market prices and commodity market prices. The book ends with a discussion of the appropriateness of various techniques, recent developments in forecasting, and the links between economic forecasting and government policy.

'A dazzling history of the future - Hamish McRae has given us a tour de force' Tim Harford What will the world look like in 2050? How will complex forces of change - demography, the environment, finance, technology and ideas about governance - affect our global society? And how, with so many unknowns, should we think about the future? One of Europe's foremost voices on global trends in economics, business and society, Hamish McRae takes us on an exhilarating journey through the next thirty years. Drawing on decades of research, and combining economic judgement with historical perspective, Hamish weighs up the opportunities and dangers we face, analysing the economic tectonic plates of the past and present in order to help us chart a map of the future. A bold and vital vision of our planet, The World in 2050 is an essential projection for anyone worried about what the future holds. For if we understand how our world is changing, we will be in a better position to secure our future in the decades to come.

Supply chain professionals: master pioneering techniques for integrating demand and supply, and create demand forecasts that are far more accurate and useful! In Demand and Supply Integration, Dr. Mark Moon presents the specific design characteristics of a world-class demand forecasting management process, showing how to effectively integrate demand forecasting within a comprehensive Demand and Supply Integration (DSI) process. Writing for supply chain professionals in any business, government agency, or military procurement organization, Moon explains what DSI is, how it differs from approaches such as S&OP, and how to recognize the symptoms of failures to sufficiently integrate demand and supply. He outlines the key characteristics of successful DSI implementations, shows how to approach Demand Forecasting as a management process, and guides you through understanding, selecting, and applying the best available qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques. You'll learn how to thoroughly reflect market intelligence in your forecasts; measure your forecasting performance; implement state-of-the-art demand forecasting systems; manage Demand Reviews, and much more.

The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe.

It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. 'Good enough' forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future.

Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, "Future Ready" leads the reader to answers to questions such as: What makes a good forecast?What period should a forecast cover?How frequently should it be updated?What information should it contain?What is the best way to produce a forecast?How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation?How should a forecast be used?How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable?How accurate does it need to be?How should you deal with risk and uncertaintyWhat is the best way to organize a forecast process?Do you need multiple forecasts?What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting?

"Future Ready" is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management.

Praise for "Future Ready"

"Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward"
--Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC

"Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one"
--Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro

"A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement."
--Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including "Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis," "Introduction to Management Accounting," and "Financial Accounting"

"In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market."
--Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group

Over the last 25 years, evolutionary game theory has grown with theoretical contributions from the disciplines of mathematics, economics, computer science and biology. It is now ripe for applications. In this book, Daniel Friedman--an economist trained in mathematics--and Barry Sinervo--a biologist trained in mathematics--offer the first unified account of evolutionary game theory aimed at applied researchers. They show how to use a single set of tools to build useful models for three different worlds: the natural world studied by biologists; the social world studied by anthropologists, economists, political scientists and others; and the virtual world built by computer scientists and engineers. The first six chapters offer an accessible introduction to core concepts of evolutionary game theory. These include fitness, replicator dynamics, sexual dynamics, memes and genes, single and multiple population games, Nash equilibrium and evolutionarily stable states, noisy best response and other adaptive processes, the Price equation, and cellular automata. The material connects evolutionary game theory with classic population genetic models, and also with classical game theory. Notably, these chapters also show how to estimate payoff and choice parameters from the data. The last eight chapters present exemplary game theory applications. These include a new coevolutionary predator-prey learning model extending rock-paper-scissors; models that use human subject laboratory data to estimate learning dynamics; new approaches to plastic strategies and life cycle strategies, including estimates for male elephant seals; a comparison of machine learning techniques for preserving diversity to those seen in the natural world; analyses of congestion in traffic networks (either internet or highways) and the "price of anarchy "; environmental and trade policy analysis based on evolutionary games; the evolution of cooperation; and speciation. As an aid for instruction, a web site provides downloadable computational tools written in the R programming language, Matlab, Mathematica and Excel.

In Schwager on Futures: Technical Analysis, legendary market analyst Jack D. Schwager examines technical analysis in-depth, exploring what works and doesn't work in the real world of trading. Now, in the Study Guide to Accompany Technical Analysis, Thomas Bierovic, a highly renowned instructor, joined by Steven Turner and Jack Schwager, offers a class in the technical material presented in Technical Analysis.

The Study Guide is clearly organized parallel with Technical Analysis. Chapter by chapter, it provides questions and problems that help you practice applying the principles in the book, plus brief chapter summaries to reinforce major points. Answers are in the back, so you can check your work.

What better way to test your knowledge than by running through a series of questions and problems? Trading system development is enhanced once you are certain you understand the underlying indicators. Working through the Study Guide lets you test your aptitude before using the indicators to trade real-time. With the Study Guide, Technical Analysis will be an even more valuable trading companion and reference.

The European public debt problem was in the making long before the 2007-2009 recession, as budget deficits had become endemic. A similar crisis is now developing in America, where the same fundamental causes have been at work. The Public Debt Problem analyzes the situation of public debts in America and reviews official forecasts for the federal government. The author carefully explains the main concepts (budget deficit, public debt, etc.) and analytical tools (discounting, government accounting, Treasury securities, bonds, yields, etc.) necessary to understand the issues.

We've weathered tough times before. History teaches us that periods of "creative destruction," like the Great Depression of the 1930s, also present opportunities to remake our economy and society and to generate whole new eras of economic growth and prosperity. In "The Great Reset," bestselling author and economic development expert Richard Florida provides an engaging and sweeping examination of these previous economic epochs, or "resets," while looking toward the future to identify the patterns that will drive the next Great Reset and transform virtually every aspect of our lives. He distills the deep forces that alter physical and social landscapes--how and where we live, how we work, how we invest in individuals and infrastructure, how we shape our cities and regions--and shows the ways in which these forces, when combined, will spur a fresh era of growth and prosperity, define a new geography of progress, and create surprising opportunities for all of us.

*Longlisted for the FT/McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award*

*Financial Times Book of the Month*

The full-time job is disappearing. Today more workers than ever are going freelance – driving for Uber or cycling for Deliveroo, developing software or consulting for investment banks. Welcome to the gig economy.

In Gigged, Sarah Kessler meets the people forging this new world of unorthodox employment: from the computer programmer who chooses exactly which hours he works each week, via the Uber driver who is trying to convince his peers to unionise, to the charity worker who thinks freelance gigs might just transform the fortunes of a declining rural town.

Their stories raise crucial questions about the future of work. What happens when job security, holidays and benefits become a thing of the past? How can freelancers find meaningful, well-paid employment? And could the gig economy really change the world of work for ever?

'A timely and cogent reminder that history never ends and is about to be made' - Tim Marshall, author of Prisoners of Geography With the world already struggling to contain conflicts on several continents, with security and defence expenditure under huge pressure, it's time to think the unthinkable and explore what might happen. As former soldiers now working in defence strategy and conflict resolution, Paul Cornish and Kingsley Donaldson are perfectly qualified to guide us through a credible and utterly convincing 20/20 vision of the year 2020, from cyber security to weapons technology, from geopolitics to undercover operations. This book is of global importance, offering both analysis and creative solutions - essential reading both for decision-makers and everyone who simply wants to understand our future.

What will South Africa look like in 2030? And how will the next fifteen years unfold?

Since leading scenario planner Frans Cronje published his bestseller A Time Traveller’s Guide to Our Next Ten Years, the country has changed rapidly. Political tensions have increased, economic performance has weakened and more and more South Africans are taking their frustrations to the street. What does this mean for the country’s future?

Cronje presents the most likely scenarios for South Africa’s future.

Sub-Saharan Africa faces three big challenges over the next generation. It will double its population to two billion by 2045. By then more than half of Africans will be living in cities. And this group of mostly young people will be connected through mobile devices.

Properly harnessed and planned for, these are positive forces for change. Without economic growth and jobs, they could prove a political and social catastrophe. Old systems of patronage and muddling through will no longer work.

Making Africa Work is a practical account of how to ensure growth beyond commodities, and to create jobs. It’s a handbook for dynamic leadership inside and outside the continent.

This is a powerful new approach to marketing that will multiply the impact of every dollar invested. Comprehensive research by Doug Hall details marketing initiatives that will deliver sustained success. What makes this book's teaching more reliable and reproducible than others is its foundation on hard data reflecting customer, industrial, and business-to-business marketing, not "guru opinions." After reading "Jump Start Your Marketing Brain, " readers will know how to more effectively and efficiently market and sell their brand, their services, their products, and even themselves!

Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. How had our models so utterly failed us? Virtually every day, we make wagers on the future - but, even when we're not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control, the maps by which we are steering are often out-of-date. The Map and the Territory is an important attempt to update our forecasting conceptual grid using twenty-first-century technologies, offering a lucid and empirical grounding in what we can know about economic forecasting and what we can't.

Part of a series which focuses on advances in futures and options research, this volume discusses a variety of topics in the field.

Economics: Beyond the Millennium contains articles by leading authorities in various fields of economic theory and econometrics. Each contributor gives an account of the current state of the art in their own field and indicates the direction that they think it will take in the next ten years. The book is split into three sections: the microfoundations of macroeconomics, markets and organization, and econometrics, with highlights including Malinvaud on resource allocation, Van Damme on game theory, and Gourieroux on econometric modelling.

LESSONS FROM THE 1970s, MORE RELEVANT THAN EVER IN 2012, BY HARRY BROWNE