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Books > Business & Economics > Economics > Economic forecasting
Growth in the region is expected to slow sharply to 2.2% in 2020
under the effects of the current health emergency and then rebound
to 6.2% in 2021. Excluding Asia's high-income newly industrialized
economies, growth will drop from 5.7% to 2.4% this year before
recovering to 6.7% next year. Headline inflation accelerated in
2019 as food prices edged up but remained low by historical
standards. Inflation will climb further to 3.2% in 2020, but
declining food prices in the latter half of the year will set the
stage for easing inflation in 2021. Downside risks to the outlook
are severe, most notably from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
In these difficult times, when challenges to growth abound,
innovation is critical to inclusive and environmentally sustainable
growth. While some economies in developing Asia are near or at the
global innovation frontier, many others lag behind. This issue of
the Asian Development Outlook includes a Special Topic: The Impact
of the Coronavirus Outbreak-An Update.
This is the true story about the future that few visionaries have
the knowledge necessary to put together. In order to drive the
development of technology and sustainability forward there will be
a need for considerable investment and collective action. The need
to drive large-scale development and transformation activity is
usually overlooked when experts in narrow fields project present
trends into the future. The foundation of our future has been laid,
or maybe not, by past decisions and activities, or lack thereof, by
politicians and their voters. The enemy has already been identified
and many of us know that is it us, but few ofour leaders have a
picture of the path forward that needs to be taken in order to
create the future that many people already see as inevitable. We
try to contribute on the basis of different pictures of how the
future might be created, but large-scale changes cannot be achieved
through small-scale activities. It took 400,000 Americans and
almost ten years to send three men to the moon in 1969. The
following facts may be noted: the transformation to electric
mobility is still in its infancy; less than one per cent of cars
are electric and the growth is very slow in most countries.
Artificial intelligence is also at an early stage of development
and the technologies necessary in order to make Industry 4.0 a
reality are still too expensive to be applied on a large scale and
by most companies. The same is true for the principles of the
circular economy. So far mostly low-hanging fruit have been picked
and the principles have not been developed to a point where they
can be universally applied. In order to create the future that many
already see as inevitable there is a need for substantial
investment and even larger transformation programmes. If existing
generations want to experience it, instead of something much worse,
we need to get our act together and approach transformation in a
systematic manner. This book presents a well-founded argument about
the remedies of contemporary societal challenges, and offers a much
needed, sobered-uplook at the complex endeavors that lie ahead.
Larsson's book disentangles intricate concepts connected to
technology, business, industry and society, and does it free from
the jargon and romanticizing we often encounter in everyday
conversation. - Professor Thomas Kalling at Lund University School
of Economics & Management.
Countries regularly track gross domestic product (GDP) as an
indicator of their economic progress, but not wealth - the assets
such as infrastructure, forests, minerals, and human capital that
produce GDP. In contrast, corporations routinely report on both
their income and assets to assess their economic health and
prospects for the future. Wealth accounts allow countries to take
stock of their assets to monitor the sustainability of development,
an urgent concern today for all countries. The Changing Wealth of
Nations 2018: Building a Sustainable Future covers national wealth
for 141 countries over 20 years (1995-2014) as the sum of produced
capital, 19 types of natural capital, net foreign assets, and human
capital overall as well as by gender and type of employment. Great
progress has been made in estimating wealth since the fi rst
volume, Where Is the Wealth of Nations? Measuring Capital for the
21st Century, was published in 2006. New data substantially improve
estimates of natural capital, and, for the first time, human
capital is measured by using household surveys to estimate lifetime
earnings. The Changing Wealth of Nations 2018 begins with a review
of global and regional trends in wealth over the past two decades
and provides examples of how wealth accounts can be used for the
analysis of development patterns. Several chapters discuss the new
work on human capital and its application in development policy.
The book then tackles elements of natural capital that are not yet
fully incorporated in the wealth accounts: air pollution, marine
fisheries, and ecosystems. This book targets policy makers but will
engage anyone committed to building a sustainable future for the
planet.
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