YOUR FUTURE STARTS NOW By the time you reach the end of the book, I promise you will understand your Future You better than ever...you will be able to see yourself in the future you want and know the steps needed to get there. Brian David Johnson has spent a quarter century helping governments, schools, corporations, and small businesses shape the future-now, he wants to help you. In The Future You, Johnson distills his work as an applied futurist and gives readers the practical tools to craft the future they've always wanted. Offering a unique combination of practical guidance, interactive workbooks, and compelling real-life stories, The Future You empowers readers to break through the fear of uncertainty. Whether you want to find your new passion, switch your career, or make a personal change, fear holds so many of us captive and prevents us from taking the steps necessary to start now. You no longer have to just dream about a better future, you can turn those plans, those ideas, and those hopes into reality.

The concepts of statistical physics and big data play an important role in the evidence-based analysis and interpretation of macroeconomic principles. The techniques of complex networks, big data, and statistical physics are useful to understand theories of economic systems, and the authors have applied these to understand the intricacies of complex macroeconomic problems. Recent research work using tools and techniques of big data, statistical physics, complex networks, and statistical science is covered, and basic graph algorithms and statistical measures of complex networks are described. The application of big data and statistical physics tools to assess price dynamics, inflation, systemic risks, and productivity is discussed. Chapter-end summary and numerical problems are provided to reinforce understanding of concepts.

Following the housing crash and financial crisis that began to unfold in 2007, the United States experienced the longest and deepest recession since the Great Depression. The Great Recession that began in December 2007 could be explained after the fact based on the disruptions to the financial system caused by the crisis. What has followed since the economy returned to expansion in June 2009, however, posed a greater surprise. The standard macroeconomic model, consistent with the general economic record since World War II, predicted that the large decline in gross domestic product (GDP) that the United States experienced during the Great Recession would be offset by rapid catch-up growth in the subsequent expansion that began in June 2009, leaving the average growth rate unchanged in the long run. Instead, the current expansion has featured the lowest growth rate of any post-war expansion. The growth rate since the crisis has averaged one-quarter to one-half the average since World War II, depending on the measure used. Nor does this slower growth appear to be a transient blip of no greater relevance, as the current expansion is already longer than average and has not experienced a period of growth acceleration at any point in the expansion. Nor is the relatively slow growth unique to the United States -- all major advanced economies have had a similar experience since 2007. This book summarizes the U.S. economic growth record and reviews a number of explanations forwarded by economists for why this expansion has featured slow growth. Some explanations focus on short-term factors that would not be expected to persist, while others focus on long-term changes to the economy.

The problem of cost growth in major weapon system acquisition programs has plagued the Department of Defense for several decades. This report examines the Air Force experience with should-cost reviews--a special form of contract cost analysis intended to identify contractor inefficiencies and lower costs to the government--and options for enhancing the Air Force's capability to conduct such reviews.

The European Union is the most successful supranational organization in history. It has reconciled former enemies, established a single market and a common currency, and reintegrated Central and Eastern Europe into the West. Yet the EU remains unsatisfying to its members and its partners. An economic giant but a political pygmy, it seems hamstrung by bureaucracy and a lack of connection to European publics.

In "Europe 2030," distinguished authors predict what the European Union will look like twenty years from new. A range of views is presented, foreseeing everything from slower growth and diminished power to actions that would make the EU a more vigorous, influential world play.

Contributors include Oksana Antonenko (International Institute for Strategic Studies), Jos? Manuel Durao Barroso (European Commission), Jos? Cutileiro (former secretary general, Western European Union), Joschka Fischer (former minister of foreign affairs, Germany), Charles Grant (Center for European Reform), Andrew Hilton (Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation), Jonathan Laurence (German Marshall Fund, Boston College and Brookings Institution), Rui Chancerelle de Machete (consititutional and administrative attorney), Hubert V?drine (former minister of foreign affairs, France), and Joseph H.H. Weiler (New York University).

The guru of high technology and a man whose "slightest utterance can move stocks" (The Wall Street Journal) presents a clear, cogent vision of the future of telecommunications; what it will mean in our everyday lives; and how savvy investors can get on the bandwagon today.

With his books (including the groundbreaking Microcosm), top-selling newsletter, testimony before Congress, and annual Telecosm conferences, George Gilder has become the premier prophet of bandwidth and connectivity. In this revised version of Telecosm, Gilder takes technology buffs and investors on a mind-bending tour inside the worldwide webs of glass and light, explaining how fiber optics and wireless breakthroughs are pushing new technologies and new companies to the fore.

Authoritative and comprehensive, yet comprehensible. A remarkable blend of rigorous elegance and economic wisdom. The Theory of Incomplete Markets provides a unified framework for analyzing the real, financial, and monetary sectors of an economy. It describes an innovative theory that takes into account the fact that in order to coordinate their activities and share their risks, agents are forced by the imperfections in their knowledge and their propensity for opportunistic behavior to trade sequentially and to make only limited contractual commitments into the future. This book studies the consequences of trading with such a sequential and incomplete market structure for the equilibria of an economy: competitive markets no longer provide the ideal way of allocating resources and even with rational expectations monetary policy is nonneutral.The theory presented in this book retains the simplicity, coherence, and generality that are the hallmarks of traditional general equilibrium theory, while moving the nature of the markets, contracts, and constraints on agent participation into closer conformity with the actual structure of markets observed in the real world.Students and researchers will appreciate how the book incorporates results from the latest research while remaining accessible to a wide audience. The theory is built from the bottom up, with ample nontechnical motivation and a user-friendly presentation that constantly draws on the reader's economic and geometric intuition. Historical discussions in each chapter help clarify the origins and current limitations of the theory.This is the first of two volumes. Volume 1 focuses on the role and functioning of financial markets in a competitive setting. Volume 2 will study more general models that combine the real and financial sectors of the economy and depart from a purely competitive analysis. In addition to providing basic insights needed to understand the theory of incomplete markets, this volume provides the essential tools needed to understand the more general analysis of Volume 2.

Including new developments and publications which have appeared since the publication of the first edition in 1995, this second edition:
*gives a comprehensive introductory account of event history modeling techniques and their use in applied research in economics and the social sciences;
*demonstrates that event history modeling is a major step forward in causal analysis. To do so the authors show that event history models employ the time-path of changes in states and relate changes in causal variables in the past to changes in discrete outcomes in the future; and
*introduces the reader to the computer program Transition Data Analysis (TDA). This software estimates the sort of models most frequently used with longitudinal data, in particular, discrete-time and continuous-time event history data.
"Techniques of Event History Modeling" can serve as a student textbook in the fields of statistics, economics, the social sciences, psychology, and the political sciences. It can also be used as a reference for scientists in all fields of research.

Africa is a continent with boundless potential — it has the natural resources, the population, and the landmass to become a major player on the global stage. Why then, is the gap between Africa and the rest of the world increasing?

While the continent has seen improvements in terms of key indicators of human wellbeing like infant mortality and life expectancy, Africa still suffers from massive poverty, weak economic growth, de-industrialisation, an underdeveloped agricultural sector and poor regional integration, among others. What needs to be done to unleash Africa’s potential and ignite a growth revolution?

In this book, Jakkie Cilliers examines where the continent is at and where it will be in 2040 if it continues on the current path.

The present German tax system is complicated, non-transparent and does not follow any theoretical model of taxation in a consistent way. Moreover, in the light of international tax competition, German tax rates are too high and thus scare away economic activity. Therefore, a fundamental tax reform is imperatively required in Germany. Michael Stimmelmayr analyzes the outcome and especially the efficiency gains of capital income tax reforms which is, however, an intricate task. The simultaneous alteration of several tax rates will induce multiple economy wide repercussions as well as different first and second round effects, as firms and households will change their optimal behaviour due to taxation. For these reasons, a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is the only instrument which allows for a consistent quantification of all short and long run effects arising from capital income tax reforms. The simulation results show that, for example, the 2000 German Tax Reform will lead to a substantial increase in GDP of approximately 6% in the long run. But, in the short run the reform is very expensive since the gains of economic growth will occur at a later stage in time. Moreover, due to the enhanced economic activity the wealth of German households will increase by nearly one percent in the long run. In addition to the 2000 German Tax Reform, the introduction of a flat tax of 25% - the so called "Kirchhof's Einfachsteuer " - as well as a consumption based tax system is analyzed in detail.

Dieses Buch soll einen praxisorientierten Uberblick der Verfahren zur Konjunkturanalyse und -prognose liefern. Es beginnt mit dem Verlauf der konjunkturellen Entwicklung in den USA und Deutschland seit den zwanziger Jahren. Danach werden das offizielle amerikanische Verfahren und von der Finanzpresse popularisierte Faustregeln der Datierung von Konjunkturzyklen dargestellt. Es folgt ein Abriss der wichtigsten Konjunkturtheorien und ihrer Aussagekraft bezuglich aktueller konjunktureller Fragestellungen. Die Schilderung typischer Muster des Konjunkturverlaufs bildet ein empirisches Pendant zu den Theorien. Es wird gezeigt, wie die Daten des ifo-Konjunkturtests und der Konsumentenstimmung zu Indizes verdichtet werden und welche Aussagekraft sie haben. Methoden zur Konstruktion von Fruhindikatorindizes werden vorgestellt und deren Prognoseleistung diskutiert. Das Buch schliesst mit einem Kapitel zur Inflation."

This annual volume provides concise, graphic interpretations of key trends that often escape the attention of the news media, economic experts and world leaders. As a comprehensive digest of available environment information, it is intended for students, researchers, activists and general readers.

'An urgent read ... Karl Popper for the 21st century' Robert Phillips, former CEO, Edelman EMEA and author of Trust me, PR is Dead 'Heffernan is ... a deft storyteller. Uncharted is ... wise and appealingly human' Tim Harford, Financial Times How can we think about the future? What do we need to do - and who do we need to be? In her bold and invigorating new book, distinguished businesswoman and author Margaret Heffernan explores the people and organisations who aren't daunted by uncertainty. We are addicted to prediction, desperate for certainty about the future. But the complexity of modern life won't provide that; experts in forecasting are reluctant to look more than 400 days out. History doesn't repeat itself and even genetics won't tell you everything you want to know. Ineradicable uncertainty is now a fact of life. In complex environments, efficiency is a hazard not a help; being robust is the better, safer option. Drawing on a wide array of people and places, Margaret Heffernan looks at long-term projects developed over generations that could never have been planned the way that they have been run. Experiments, led by individuals and nations, discover new possibilities and options. Radical exercises in forging new futures with wildly diverse participants allow everyone to create outcomes together that none could do alone. Existential crises reveal the vital social component in resilience. Death is certain, but how we approach it impacts the future of those we leave behind. And preparedness - doing everything today that you might need for tomorrow - provides the antidote to passivity and prediction. Ranging freely through history and from business to science, government to friendships, this refreshing book challenges us to resist the false promises of technology and efficiency and instead to mine our own creativity and humanity for the capacity to create the futures we want and can believe in.

Trends have become a commodity-an element of culture in their own right and the very currency of our cultural life. Consumer culture relies on a new class of professionals who explain trends, predict trends, and in profound ways even manufacture trends. On Trend delves into one of the most powerful forces in global consumer culture. From forecasting to cool hunting to design thinking, the work done by trend professionals influences how we live, work, play, shop, and learn. Devon Powers' provocative insights open up how the business of the future kindles exciting opportunity even as its practices raise questions about an economy increasingly built on nonstop disruption and innovation. Merging industry history with vivid portraits of today's trend visionaries, Powers reveals how trends took over, what it means for cultural change, and the price all of us pay to see-and live-the future.

What skills will be the most valuable in the coming century? How can our country ensure that all its citizens have a share in the new global economy? The author of The Next American Frontier addresses these questions in a trail-blazing new book that is certain to guide a generation of policy makers.