Business leaders know that accurate forecasting is a critical organizational capability. Forecasting is predicting the future, and the list of what needs to be predicted to run a world-class organization and its supply chain is virtually endless. Forecasting goes well beyond simply predicting demand or sales. Accurate forecasts are essential for identifying new market opportunities, forecasting risks, events, supply chain disruptions, innovation, competition, market growth and trends. It also includes the ability to conduct a what-ifa analysis to understand the tradeoff implications of decisions. Over the past few years the ability to make accurate and useful forecasts has become particularly challenging due to a spike in the competitiveness of global markets coupled with a global economic recession. Customers are demanding increasingly shorter response times, improved quality, and greater product choice. Increased competition is exacerbated by a downward global economy and rising fuel prices, which increase uncertainty, risk, and operating costs. The result has been a sharp rise in the complexity of what needs to be forecasted. In an era of rapid change, historical data that are typically used to make forecasts can be of limited value. At the same time information technology has enabled forecasts to drive entire supply chains and enterprise resources planning systems. However, more technology and software, without an understanding of how they can most effectively be utilized, are not the answer to improving forecast accuracy

Every plan needs a forecast - a reasonable prediction of the future. No business plan can be implemented without one. But the academic literature on forecasting is vast and spans disciplines such as statistics, economics, operations management and informed judgment and decision making. Recommendations from this literature have been implemented in a vast array of commercial software, and almost all modern companies have access to some decision support models that provide demand forecasts. In the long run, the demand forecast shapes decisions to build or close down plants, add or remove products from a portfolio, and bolster or challenge investor confidence in the stock price. In the short run forecasting software greatly aids managers in making functional decisions (how much are we going to sell next month, next year, or 5 years from now?) but without a proper understanding of the basics of forecasting, such software appears as a black-box, and the output from this software garners little trust within an organization. The intention of this book is to underscore the importance of demand forecasting and to demonstrate what an executive should know about it. It discusses the value of forecasting, presents both basic and advanced forecasting models, introduces the subject of time series and the technique of exponential smoothing (critical for accurate forecasts), examines the role that human judgment plays in interpreting the numbers and identifying forecasting errors. Finally, the book offers an organizational context by creating a rational framework that shows how forecasting is an integral part of business planning and demonstrates how to use forecasts within an organization.

This book is written for business persons who wish to forecast consumer demands and sales. It is also designed for economic, financial, governmental, and private practitioners, who make decisions based on costs, benefits, economic trends, and growth. Finally, the book is written for first year MBA students, undergraduate students, and other readers who wish to acquire a fundamental knowledge of forecasting for the purpose of pursuing jobs in the fields of economics and finance, or for making personal plans for the future. The book emphasizes applied aspects of forecasting rather than theoretical aspects, so a working knowledge of high-school statistics and college algebra is all the mathematics that is needed. Because regression-based forecasts do not appear until the last three chapters of the book, knowledge of econometrics or time-series modeling is not a prerequisite. Additionally, although each chapter is designed to be self-explanatory, a basic understanding of econometrics might be helpful, but not necessary. The book discusses most of the forecasting methods frequently used in business and economics, such as time-series, demand and sales, investment, short-term planning, long-term growth, and regressions. To keep the book concise, only a brief introduction to the ARIMA process is introduced. Readers who wish to gain in-depth knowledge of ARIMA models are encouraged to read a book written specifically for time-series modeling.

Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects, such as inflation and low rates of economic growth. "Commodity Prices and Markets" advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim. The volume addresses three distinct subjects: the difficulties in forecasting commodity prices, the effects of exogenous commodity price shocks on the domestic economy, and the relationship between price shocks and monetary policy. Accurately forecasting commodity prices is difficult but of great importance to businesses and governments, and this volume will be invaluable to professionals and policymakers interested in the field.

The European Union is the most successful supranational organization in history. It has reconciled former enemies, established a single market and a common currency, and reintegrated Central and Eastern Europe into the West. Yet the EU remains unsatisfying to its members and its partners. An economic giant but a political pygmy, it seems hamstrung by bureaucracy and a lack of connection to European publics.

In "Europe 2030," distinguished authors predict what the European Union will look like twenty years from new. A range of views is presented, foreseeing everything from slower growth and diminished power to actions that would make the EU a more vigorous, influential world play.

Contributors include Oksana Antonenko (International Institute for Strategic Studies), Jos? Manuel Durao Barroso (European Commission), Jos? Cutileiro (former secretary general, Western European Union), Joschka Fischer (former minister of foreign affairs, Germany), Charles Grant (Center for European Reform), Andrew Hilton (Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation), Jonathan Laurence (German Marshall Fund, Boston College and Brookings Institution), Rui Chancerelle de Machete (consititutional and administrative attorney), Hubert V?drine (former minister of foreign affairs, France), and Joseph H.H. Weiler (New York University).

Including new developments and publications which have appeared since the publication of the first edition in 1995, this second edition:
*gives a comprehensive introductory account of event history modeling techniques and their use in applied research in economics and the social sciences;
*demonstrates that event history modeling is a major step forward in causal analysis. To do so the authors show that event history models employ the time-path of changes in states and relate changes in causal variables in the past to changes in discrete outcomes in the future; and
*introduces the reader to the computer program Transition Data Analysis (TDA). This software estimates the sort of models most frequently used with longitudinal data, in particular, discrete-time and continuous-time event history data.
"Techniques of Event History Modeling" can serve as a student textbook in the fields of statistics, economics, the social sciences, psychology, and the political sciences. It can also be used as a reference for scientists in all fields of research.

The European economic and monetary union has changed the structure of international monetary relations fundamentally. In this book two experts--one European, the other American--offer transatlantic perspectives on the ramifications of the monetary union and the launch of the euro. C. Randall Henning examines selected American views on Europe's monetary union, and looks at the political, economic, and institutional interests of the United States as they are affected by the creation of the euro. He examines the external monetary policymaking machinery of the union and discusses the relationship of the monetary union to international institutions, particularly the meetings of the G-7 finance ministers and central bank governors and the International Monetary Fund. Henning is generally sympathetic to European integration, supportive of the monetary union, and persuaded of the importance of international cooperation. Pier Carlo Padoan presents a European view of the role of the euro in the international system. He looks at the euro as a potential global currency and examines the transition phase between a regional currency and a global currency. Central to this is an analysis of the appropriate exchange rate policy for the euro. He also considers euro-dollar relations and the prospects for transatlantic cooperation. C. Randall Henning is a professor at The American University and a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics. Pier Carlo Padoan is a professor at the University of Rome and the College of Europe.

This is the preeminent and most authoritative annual report and forecast on the Chinese economy, now ranked among the three largest economies in the world as well as one of the most swiftly changing. Researched and written by a quasi-official organ of the Chinese government, it devotes many chapters to structural reforms that are drawing attention around the world. Coverage includes general forecasts and policy analyses on the Chinese economy, reports on specific regions within China including Hong Kong, reviews of the global economic situation, and prospects for the future of China.

Due to falling fertility rates, the aging of the baby-boom cohort, and increases in life expectancy at age sixty-five, the percentage of the population that is elderly is expected to increase rapidly in both the United States and Japan over the next two decades. These fourteen essays show that, despite differences in culture and social and government structure, population aging will have many similar macro and micro effects on the economic status and behavior of the elderly in both countries. Topics addressed include the effects of demographic trends on the consumption and savings patterns of the elderly and on public pension programs in Japan and the United States; the consequences of population aging on private pension fund saving, national saving, and asset accumulation; the effects of personal retirement savings, social security, and retirement benefits on the wealth of the elderly; and public pension reform. This volume will be of interest to scholars and policy makers who are concerned with the economics of aging.

What skills will be the most valuable in the coming century? How can our country ensure that all its citizens have a share in the new global economy? The author of The Next American Frontier addresses these questions in a trail-blazing new book that is certain to guide a generation of policy makers.

The world has entered a period of accelerated change. This has everything to do with the disruptive events of 2020, the cognitive rewiring which each of us is going through, and the profound macro shifts reshaping the world as we know it.

We are living through an unprecedented period of rapid and pervasive transition. Every aspect of our reality is shifting, from how we work and play, to how we educate our children and care for the health and wellbeing of our families, ourselves and our neighbours. How does this affect the future of strong, dominant sectors such as tourism and travel, consumer, retail, property, education, health, automotive and financial services, among others?

• Can we rewire these and other sectors for a new reality?
• Do we even have the wherewithal to reimagine the future?
• How do we start the process of pressing the reset button?
• Can we reimagine the world we live in and take proactive steps to play a part in it?
• Do we have the tools to shift our business strategies?
• Are we primed to take advantage of the opportunities on offer?
• Can we sidestep our fear of the unknown and open our minds to exciting new possibilities?

Transport yourself into the future with global future strategist, speaker and disruptor Abdullah Verachia as he leads you through the fundamental shifts taking place at every level and how these will reshape the world as we know it. Envisage a new reality, new cross-border opportunities and new avenues for personal and business growth.

Unlock key insights revealed in Disruption Amplified that will inspire your own rethinking during this remarkable and transformative time, and step boldly into a new tomorrow.

International Marketing Forecasts is the most reliable source of forecast data on consumer markets covering 27 countries worldwide. Packed with vital forecasting intelligence, this book contains growth predictions to 2009 for over 330 consumer products and up to 2018 for socio-economic indicators. Using one source for this information ensures that consumer market and company predictions are fully comparable.

A compendium of the work of Vladimir L. Kvint, Global Emerging Market in Transition: Articles, Forecasts, and Studies is an essential guide to understanding the intricacies behind global trends and emerging markets. Starting with the explanations and definitions of global trends, classifications of different perspectives of emerging markets, and the general understanding of the nature of modern global emerging markets, Professor Kvint moves the reader through the current emerging markets in Europe, Central Asia, and Latin America, providing analyses and forecasts. He then presents an in-depth analysis of today's largest emerging market--Russia. Professor Kvint stresses the importance of Russia's move from a communist command system to a free-market economy, and how this will affect the business community politically, socially, and economically.