The economic shocks brought about by the Great Recession triggered drastic reactions by policy makers and private agents alike. Such dramatic economic consequences have lead economics agents to acknowledge the need for new tools to monitor economic developments in real time, and learn early detection methods to foresee downturns and recoveries Short-term Forecasting for Empirical Economists seeks to close the gap between research and applied short-term forecasting. The authors review some of the key theoretical results and empirical findings in the recent literature on short-term forecasting, and translate these findings into economically meaningful techniques to facilitate their widespread application to compute short-term forecasts in economics, and to monitor the ongoing business cycle developments in real time. Short-term Forecasting for Empirical Economists is divided into five sections. Section 1 outlines what forecasting frameworks are surveyed and why. Section 2 introduces the notation and main characteristics of the data for short term forecasting. Section 3 reviews the main models used for this purpose and addresses the role of the number of series in factor models. Section 4 illustrates the forecasting performance of the different models reviewed in Section 3 through an empirical application. Finally, section 5 reviews the main results and proposes some lines for further research.

Over the next twenty years, the world as we know it is going to change in innumerable ways: it is like the whole thing is a giant chessboard, except that the pieces are not just getting shifted around a board. Instead, they are flipping through the air, and changing their patterns and colors and landing looking completely different than they did before. All of the economic pieces are morphing into something else. In Economorphics, you are offered a guidebook to these changes and the ways that you can make them work for you. Did you know that we are in the midst of a new wave of mobility, the likes of which we have not seen in a century? Do you know what the demographic window is - or when it will open and shut in your market? There is a growing middle class in much of the developing world - what does that mean to you if you live in the developed one? And what about interest rates - what do the long term trends say for investors? In clear, entertaining prose, Nazareth outlines the biggest trends that will shape the next two decades. You need a strategic plan - whether for your business, your portfolio, your career or your life. The starting point is understanding the Economorphics - so make sure you do, and take control of your future.

Why the crisis in which America finds itself demands a new "operating system" In this third volume of his award-winning American Crisis series, James Gustave Speth makes his boldest and most ambitious contribution yet. He looks unsparingly at the sea of troubles in which the United States now finds itself, charts a course through the discouragement and despair commonly felt today, and envisions what he calls America the Possible, an attractive and plausible future that we can still realize. The book identifies a dozen features of the American political economy-the country's basic operating system-where transformative change is essential. It spells out the specific changes that are needed to move toward a new political economy-one in which the true priority is to sustain people and planet. Supported by a compelling "theory of change" that explains how system change can come to America, the book also presents a vision of political, social, and economic life in a renewed America. Speth envisions a future that will be well worth fighting for. In short, this is a book about the American future and the strong possibility that we yet have it in ourselves to use our freedom and our democracy in powerful ways to create something fine, a reborn America, for our children and grandchildren.

Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present Offers a proven approach for making sense out of future challenges and devising positive responses, using methods developed by the respected Institute for the Future Features examples of how organizations like Procter & Gamble, Disney, Reuters, UPS, and the Centers for Disease Control have put the approach into practice Includes the institute's ten-year forecast of trends, challenges, and opportunitiesThese days, every leader struggles with a paradox: you can't predict the future, but you have to be able to make sense of it to thrive. In the age of the Internet, everyone knows what's new, but to succeed you have to be able to sort out what's important, devise strategies based on your own point of view, and get there ahead of the crowd.Bob Johansen shares techniques the Institute for the Future has been refining for nearly forty years to help leaders navigate what, borrowing a term from the Army War College, he calls the VUCA world: a world characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. As the institute's ten-year forecast makes clear, leaders now face fewer problems with neat solutions and more dilemmas: recurring, complex, messy, and puzzling situations. Get There Early lays out the institute's three-step Foresight to Insight to Action Cycle that will allow readers to sense, make sense of, and win with dilemmas. Johansen offers specific techniques, ranging from storytelling to simulation gaming, as well as real-world examples to help readers turn the VUCA world on its head through creative use of vision, understanding, clarity, and agility. This book offers hope for leaders facing the constant tension - a dilemma in itself - between judging too soon and deciding too late.

In this definitive and revealing history, Henry Mintzberg, the iconoclastic former president of the Strategic Management Society, unmasks the press that has mesmerized so many organizations since 1965: strategic planning. One of our most brilliant and original management thinkers, Mintzberg concludes that the term is an oxymoron -- that strategy cannot be planned because planning is about analysis and strategy is about synthesis. That is why, he asserts, the process has failed so often and so dramatically.
Mintzberg traces the origins and history of strategic planning through its prominence and subsequent fall. He argues that we must reconceive the process by which strategies are created -- by emphasizing informal learning and personal vision -- and the roles that can be played by planners. Mintzberg proposes new and unusual definitions of planning and strategy, and examines in novel and insightful ways the various models of strategic planning and the evidence of why they failed. Reviewing the so-called "pitfalls" of planning, he shows how the process itself can destroy commitment, narrow a company's vision, discourage change, and breed an atmosphere of politics. In a harsh critique of many sacred cows, he describes three basic fallacies of the process -- that discontinuities can be predicted, that strategists can be detached from the operations of the organization, and that the process of strategy-making itself can be formalized.
Mintzberg devotes a substantial section to the new role for planning, plans, and planners, not inside the strategy-making process, but in support of it, providing some of its inputs and sometimes programming its outputs as well as encouraging strategic thinking in general. This book is required reading for anyone in an organization who is influenced by the planning or the strategy-making processes.

A growing complacency that stability has been restored in the wake of recent economic turmoil is not just wishful thinking, it is dangerous thinking This book directly confronts uncomfortable questions that many prefer to brush aside: if economists and other scholars, politicians, and business professionals understand the causes of economic crises, as they claim, then why do such damaging crises continue to occur? Can we trust business and intellectual elites who advocate the principles of Realpolitik and claim the "public good" as their priority, yet consistently favor maximization of profit over ethical issues? Former deputy prime minister of Russia Grigory Yavlinsky, an internationally respected free-market economist, makes a powerful case that the often-cited causes of global economic instability-institutional failings, wrong decisions by regulators, insufficient or incorrect information, and the like-are only secondary to a far more significant underlying cause: the failure to understand that universal social norms are essential to thriving businesses and social and economic progress. Yavlinsky explores the widespread disregard for moral values in business decisions and calls for restoration of principled behavior in politics and economic practices. The unwelcome alternative, he warns, will be a twenty-first-century global economy in the grip of unending crises.

The book is a dialogue between a money manager and a young man who asks whether or not he should invest. Their conversation explores How 'for money' and 'not-for-money' investment differ; How accounting and economic assets compare with social and natural assets; How time is central to all of investment, building capabilities in the present which can deliver resources in the future; How banks collectively create and destroy money; How the yield curve shows the market interest rates for financial assets of different durations; How competitive advantage is important in determining the returns achieved on real assets; How 'fundamental value' differs from price, or what someone is prepared to pay; How 'fundamental analysis' and 'technical analysis' of price data provide insights into risk; How mean-variance analysis of price data is the conventional approach to risk; How the economic ecosystem creates prices How capitalism may be a lousy system and yet the best available as it adapts continuously to align money prices and human values.

This book covers essential elements of building and understanding regression models within the context of business and economics. It is a nonmathematical treatment that is accessible, even to readers with limited statistical backgrounds. It is useful for business professionals, MBA students and others who seek to understand regression analysis without having to work through tedious mathematical and statistical theory. The importance of using regression models in modern business and economic analysis can hardly be overstated. In this book we describe exactly how such models can be developed and evaluated. The data used is real data with real world business applications, not data that has been contrived to demonstrate some purely academic point. These data are likely to be encountered and used in the actual world of business. In an appendix using screen shots and step by step instructions, we include how to do use Excel to perform regression analysis. When readers have completed this book they will understand how to build basic mathematical models illustrating business/economic relationships using regression analysis. In addition, they will know how to interpret and evaluate regression models using a five step process (which includes evaluating the model; identifying its statistical significance; determining its explanatory power; for time-series applications, identifying how the error terms are distributed; and understanding the concept of multicollinearity). Readers will understand what is possible and what to look for in evaluating regression models. It is unlikely that most readers will build such models in the course of carrying out their own professional responsibilities, but it is very likely that they will, at some point in their careers, be exposed to such models. This book will help such readers understand models that someone else has developed.

Asia has entered the 21st century as an economic superpower and is inevitably also becoming a political superpower. This evolution is the subject of this continuing series which includes in its scope the entire spectrum of contemporary politics and economics of Asia. The coverage is intended to deal with Asia, its political dynamics, economic policies, institutions and its future. It discusses topics that include: U.S.-South Korea relations; trade promotion authority and the Korea Free Trade Agreement; China's military modernisation efforts; U.S.-Vietnam economic and trade relations; and, U.S.-China trade relations and China's currency policy.

As individuals, companies, and countries struggle to recover from the economic crisis, many are narrowly focused on forecasts for the next week, month, or quarter. Yet they should be asking what the global economy will look like in the years to come - where will the long-term risks and opportunities arise? These are the questions that Daniel Altman confronts in his provocative and indispensable book. The fate of the global economy, Altman argues, will be determined by deeper factors than those that move markets from moment to moment. His incisive analysis brings together hidden trends, societal pressures, and policy endgames to make twelve surprising but logical predictions about the years ahead and to pose the question of whether our political and economic institutions are up to the task.

This book provides a comprehensive description of the state-of-the-art in modelling global and national economies. It introduces the long-run structural approach to modelling that can be readily adopted for use in understanding how economies work, and in generating forecasts for decision- and policy-makers. The book contains a thorough description of recent developments in macroeconomics and econometrics, which should be of interest to advanced students and researchers, but is also written to be accessible and helpful to practitioners in government and the private sector. The long-run structural approach is illustrated with various global and national examples, including a step-by-step description of the development and use of a model of the UK economy. Throughout, the book emphasises the use of macroeconometric modelling in the real world and is written in a way that ensures the techniques illustrated can be replicated or applied in new contexts. The transparency and pragmatism of the modelling approach used within this book will be attractive to practitioners who need manageable and interpretable models to answer specific questions.

LESSONS FROM THE 1970s, MORE RELEVANT THAN EVER IN 2012, BY HARRY BROWNE

Throughout our nation's history, Americans have found the courage to do right by our children's future. Our challenge is clear and inescapable: America cannot be great if we go broke. Our businesses will not be able to grow and create jobs, and our workers will not be able to compete successfully for the jobs of the future without a plan to get this crushing debt burden off our backs. Ever since the economic downturn, families across the country have huddled around kitchen tables, making tough choices about what they hold most dear and what they can learn to live without. They expect and deserve their leaders to do the same. This book examines the need to face the Nation's current fiscal future, with a look at the economic implications of the long-term federal budget.

The world spins in economic turmoil, and who can tell what will happen next? Cold numbers and simple statistical projections don't take into account social, financial, or political factors that can dramatically alter the economic course of a nation or a region. In this unique book, more than twenty leading economists and experts render thorough, rigorously researched prognoses for the world's major economies over the next five years. Factoring in such varied issues as the price of oil, the strength of the U.S. dollar, geopolitics, tax policies, and new developments in investment decision making, the contributors ground their predictions in the realities of current events, political conditions, and the health of financial institutions in each national economy.

The most comprehensive volume on the global economy available today, this book presents up-to-date research on Russia, Australia, Europe, sub-Saharan and South Africa, the major Asian economies, North America, and the largest economies of Latin America. With unsurpassed expertise, the authors explain what's going on in individual countries, how important current global issues will impact them, and what economic scenarios they most likely will face in upcoming years.

It is the business of science to predict. An exact science like astronomy can usually make very accurate predictions indeed. A chemist makes a precise prediction every time he writes a formula. The nuclear physicist advertised to the world, in the atomic bomb, how man can deal with entities so small that they are completely beyond the realm of sense perception, yet make predictions astonishing in their accuracy and significance. Economics is now reaching a point where it can hope also to make rather accurate predictions, within limits which this study will explain. Complete with more than 150 grafts and charts. Wilder Publications is a green publisher. All of our books are printed to order. This reduces waste and helps us keep prices low while greatly reducing our impact on the environment.

Broad beliefs about the economics of 'developing countries' and of the development process have changed considerably since the subject became of wide interest in the 1950s; due largely to changes in the world and in the application of economic policies within developing countries. Subjects such as environment, gender, poverty, famine and globalization have come to be of increasingly important public interest. The extreme divergence of experience among regions of the world has also made it more and more questionable whether it even makes sense to think of a single and distinctive 'economics of developing countries'. This textbook presents a concise and up-to-date examination of the field of development economics, bringing together historical perspectives, current issues and policy implications. Each chapter can be read as a stand-alone unit, or as part of the wider economic debates presented throughout the book.

An upbeat antidote to the gloom and doom forecasts of the financial future

Just about everyone is worried about the economy and markets. And the fear is that they will stay down for a long time. But a few brave voices say that the gloom and doom forecasts are just too pessimistic. Reality is that entrepreneurs don't give up. History is pretty clear, every time the economy is thought to be done, worn out, finished, it bounces back and heads to new highs. In fact, the economy and the markets-counter to conventional wisdom-have started to improve in the first half of 2009. Even housing is showing some signs of life.

With "It's Not as Bad as You Think, "Brian Wesbury, ranked as one of the top economic forecasters by the "Wall Street Journal" and "USA Today, " shows you that while the financial future may be hard to predict, it will ultimately be profitable over the long haul. In this easy-to-follow and engaging forecast of the future, Wesbury takes a look at the good, the bad, and the ugly-and debunks the pouting pundits of pessimism to show you how to prosper now and in the future.An optimistic look at the economy and the markets written by one of today's foremost financial forecastersPresents a roadmap to seek opportunities in all the panicShows you how to analyze economic indicators and government policy to grow your wealth so you don't lose by hiding under the bed

A breath of fresh air, Wesbury's objectivity and optimism provide welcome relief to the daily bad news stories, as he sets us all up to capitalize on tomorrow's great possibilities.

"Great fortunes which have been created by bankers, merchants, and investors are the result of ignoring these monthly fluctuations in commodity and security prices, and of striving to anticipate and profit by the major movements coming every few years. These major movements can be foretold if one will spend the necessary time and money in studying fundamental conditions. Therefore a fortune is within the grasp of every reader of this book who has and uses the necessary figures." - From the Preface Among entrepreneurs and businessmen alike, Roger Babson is considered one of the foremost authorities in the field of business forecasting, and his philosophy and statistical expertise continue to influence the investment community today. A model of comparative statistical analysis, this classic text still holds remarkable value to beginning and experienced investors alike. It expertly encompass in an understandable and succinct manner an array of topics including: . Two Classes of Statistics, . Increase in Funds Invested According to Fundamental Trends, . Price Fluctuations and Purchasing Range and Commodity Market Since 1860, . The Law of Equal and Opposite Reaction, Theory of Babsonchart, . Wealth, New Building, Check Transactions, Failures, Labor Conditions . Banking, Foreign Trade and Exchange, Gold and Commodity Prices, . Effect of War on Business Conditions and much more. ALSO AVAILABLE FROM COSIMO CLASSICS: Babson's Instincts and Emotions: Should They Be Suppressed or Harnessed? and Business Fundamentals: How to Become a Successful Business Man. American entrepreneur, statistician, and author ROGER WARD BABSON (1875-1967) founded Massachusetts' Babson College, in 1919, and the state'sGravity Research Foundation in 1948. A prolific writer who explored a wide variety of topics; his books include Fundamentals of Prosperity, The Future of the Churches, Religion and Business, and Gravity: Our Enemy No. 1.