Hoe gaan Suid-Afrika in 2030 lyk? En hoe gaan die volgende 15 jaar ontvou?

Sedert die bekende scenariobeplanner Frans Cronje se blitsverkoper, A Time Traveller’s Guide to Our Next Ten Years, het die land dramaties verander. Politieke spanning het verhoog, die ekonomie het in die hek geduik en al meer Suid-Afrikaners wend hulle uit frustrasie straat toe.

Wat beteken dit vir die land se toekoms? Gaan die vonk in die kruitvat vlamvat of gaan ’n reenboog sy onverwagse verskyning maak?

The US marijuana market generated a total revenue of $1.6B in 2013, an estimated increase of 33% over 2012, exceeding industry estimates by more than $100M. The marijuana market is less than 2% of the US tobacco market, a $153.5B market that has no medicinal value, and less than 1% of the alcohol market, which valued at $197.8B in 2012. This market analysis provides information useful to investors, existing business owners, entrepreneurs, and law makers involved in the marijuana market.

It is more than fifteen years since Joseph Stiglitz wrote Globalization and its Discontents, with the message that there is evidence of much unhappiness with the way global reforms have been taking place and how they have impacted developing and poor countries. Stiglitz concluded that the main issue is not with globalization, but rather that the process of management was very much lacking. And now Stiglitz in his latest book, Rewriting the Rules of the American Economy, has argued that the message he had about globalization is now affecting the advanced economies. Professor Jorgen Orstrom Moller is never one to evade the complexities and subtleties of current affairs. He pursues the issues of the day with an intellectual curiosity, clarity of thought, and completeness that is enriched by his vast experience in the Danish diplomatic service, policymaking and academia. In this book he uses an interdisciplinary approach to discuss the intrinsic issues, including globalization, that are shaping the world.

Following the housing crash and financial crisis that began to unfold in 2007, the United States experienced the longest and deepest recession since the Great Depression. The Great Recession that began in December 2007 could be explained after the fact based on the disruptions to the financial system caused by the crisis. What has followed since the economy returned to expansion in June 2009, however, posed a greater surprise. The standard macroeconomic model, consistent with the general economic record since World War II, predicted that the large decline in gross domestic product (GDP) that the United States experienced during the Great Recession would be offset by rapid catch-up growth in the subsequent expansion that began in June 2009, leaving the average growth rate unchanged in the long run. Instead, the current expansion has featured the lowest growth rate of any post-war expansion. The growth rate since the crisis has averaged one-quarter to one-half the average since World War II, depending on the measure used. Nor does this slower growth appear to be a transient blip of no greater relevance, as the current expansion is already longer than average and has not experienced a period of growth acceleration at any point in the expansion. Nor is the relatively slow growth unique to the United States -- all major advanced economies have had a similar experience since 2007. This book summarizes the U.S. economic growth record and reviews a number of explanations forwarded by economists for why this expansion has featured slow growth. Some explanations focus on short-term factors that would not be expected to persist, while others focus on long-term changes to the economy.

Although all advanced industrial societies have urban and regional developmentpolicies, such policy in the United States historically has taken on a very distinct form. Compared with the more top-down, centrally orchestrated approaches of Western European countries, US cities and, to a lesser degree, states, take the lead, spurred on by developers and those with interest in rent. This bottom-up policy creates conflict as one city battles with another for new investments and as real estate developers fight over the spoils, resulting in highly contentious politics. In The Politics of Urban and Regional Development and the American Exception, Cox addresses the question of why US policy is so unique. In doing so, he illustrates the essential characteristics of American regional development through a series of case studies including housing politics in Silicon Valley; the history of the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport; and a major redevelopment project that was rebuffed in Columbus, Ohio. Cox contrasts these examples with Western Europe's tradition of centralized governmental involvement and stronger labor movements that historically have been more concerned with creating what he calls "the good geography" than profits for developers, whatever the shortfalls in policy outcomes might be. The differences illuminate the peculiar nature of political engagement and local competition in shaping the way US urban development has evolved.

Business leaders know that accurate forecasting is a critical organizational capability. Forecasting is predicting the future, and the list of what needs to be predicted to run a world-class organization and its supply chain is virtually endless. Forecasting goes well beyond simply predicting demand or sales. Accurate forecasts are essential for identifying new market opportunities, forecasting risks, events, supply chain disruptions, innovation, competition, market growth and trends. It also includes the ability to conduct a what-ifa analysis to understand the tradeoff implications of decisions. Over the past few years the ability to make accurate and useful forecasts has become particularly challenging due to a spike in the competitiveness of global markets coupled with a global economic recession. Customers are demanding increasingly shorter response times, improved quality, and greater product choice. Increased competition is exacerbated by a downward global economy and rising fuel prices, which increase uncertainty, risk, and operating costs. The result has been a sharp rise in the complexity of what needs to be forecasted. In an era of rapid change, historical data that are typically used to make forecasts can be of limited value. At the same time information technology has enabled forecasts to drive entire supply chains and enterprise resources planning systems. However, more technology and software, without an understanding of how they can most effectively be utilized, are not the answer to improving forecast accuracy

Every plan needs a forecast - a reasonable prediction of the future. No business plan can be implemented without one. But the academic literature on forecasting is vast and spans disciplines such as statistics, economics, operations management and informed judgment and decision making. Recommendations from this literature have been implemented in a vast array of commercial software, and almost all modern companies have access to some decision support models that provide demand forecasts. In the long run, the demand forecast shapes decisions to build or close down plants, add or remove products from a portfolio, and bolster or challenge investor confidence in the stock price. In the short run forecasting software greatly aids managers in making functional decisions (how much are we going to sell next month, next year, or 5 years from now?) but without a proper understanding of the basics of forecasting, such software appears as a black-box, and the output from this software garners little trust within an organization. The intention of this book is to underscore the importance of demand forecasting and to demonstrate what an executive should know about it. It discusses the value of forecasting, presents both basic and advanced forecasting models, introduces the subject of time series and the technique of exponential smoothing (critical for accurate forecasts), examines the role that human judgment plays in interpreting the numbers and identifying forecasting errors. Finally, the book offers an organizational context by creating a rational framework that shows how forecasting is an integral part of business planning and demonstrates how to use forecasts within an organization.