Ever since the European currency crises of 1992-93, the Mexican crisis of 1994-95, and especially the Asian/global crisis of 1997-98, there has been heightened interest in early warning signals of financial crises. This pathbreaking study presents a comprehensive battery of empirical tests on the performance of alternative early warning indicators for emerging-market economies that should prove useful in the construction of a more effective global warning system.

Not only are the authors able to draw conclusions about which specific indicators have sent the most reliable early warning signals of currency and banking crises in emerging economies, they also test the out-of-sample performance of the model during the Asian crisis and find that it does a good job of identifying the most vulnerable economies. In addition, they show how the early warning system can be used to construct a "composite" crisis indicator to weigh the importance of alternative channels of cross-country "contagion" of crises and to generate information on the recovery path from crises.

This timely study comes on the eve of impending changes at the International Monetary Fund as that institution reexamines how it reacts to financial crises. Moreover, the study provides" ...a wealth of valuable elements for anyone investigating and forecasting adverse developments in emerging markets as well as industrial countries, " according to Ewoud Schuitemaker, Vice President of the Economics Department at ABN AMRO Bank, which is developing a Macroeconomic Risk System of its own to identify risks of macroeconomic downturn on a country basis for some 75 countries.

Why have the states of Europe agreed to create an Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and a single European currency? What will decide the fate of this bold project? This book explains why monetary integration has deepened in Europe from the Bretton Woods era to the present day. McNamara argues that the development of a neoliberal economic policy consensus among European leaders in the years after the first oil crisis was crucial to stability in the European Monetary System and progress towards EMU. She identifies two factors, rising capital mobility and changing ideas about the government's proper role in monetary policymaking, as critical to the neoliberal consensus but warns that unresolved social tensions in this consensus may provoke a political backlash against EMU and its neoliberal reforms.McNamara's findings are relevant not only to European monetary integration, but to more general questions about the effects of international capital flows on states. Although this book delineates a range of constraints created by economic interdependence, McNamara rejects the notion that international market forces simply dictate government policy choice. She demonstrates that the process of neoliberal policy change is a historically dependent one, shaped by policymakers' shared beliefs and interpretations of their experiences in the global economy.

This is a book is for leaders, to aid their practice in strategy, decision making and change - it's a very practical (field) guide to foresight and foresight tools. It's aimed at leaders in manufacturing, service, non-profit, government and fourth sector organisations. Strategic Foresight is a set of skills and tools used to explore potential futures exercising your 'futures muscles' so that you are able to plan for and take advantage of these possible futures. The book first explores how we think about the future, looking at ambiguity and uncertainty and how these play a role in our ability to think into the future. It introduces a simple model of preferred thinking styles and talks about the 'baggage' and values that form our perceptions. The next section covers models, tools and maps that people will find useful for developing their own Foresight and using this knowledge to make decisions, whilst uncovering innovation and creativity to turn this Foresight knowledge to competitive advantage. This is not a comprehensive list - just a selection of the most effective tools with their use and case studies that are easy and effective to use. The next two sections cover: How to identify emerging trends; what impact they may have on your business; the strategic importance of early recognition; and how to apply the knowledge in your business. Harnessing Foresight as a spring board for innovation and creativity to develop new paradigms and take advantage of what may come. Finally, the author pulls it all together by showing how to develop a practical method of exploring potential futures in the context of your existing business in order to take robust decisions and develop strategies that help you work towards your preferred future. Case studies are interspersed throughout the book to illustrate the points made along with exercises, where appropriate, to encourage people to 'think along' with the ideas and new ways of approaching Strategic Foresight.

Case studies of metropolitan cities in nine African countries – from Egypt in the north to three in West and Central Africa, two in East Africa and three in Southern Africa – make up the empirical foundation of this publication.

The interrelated themes addressed in these chapters – the national influence on urban development, the popular dynamics that shape urban development and the global currents on urban development – make up its framework. All authors and editors are African, as is the publisher. The only exception is Göran Therborn whose recent book, Cities of Power, served as motivation for this volume. Accordingly, the issue common to all case studies is the often conflictual powers that are exercised by national, global and popular forces in the development of these African cities.

Rather than locating the case studies in an exclusively African historical context, the focus is on the trajectories of the postcolonial city (with the important exception of Addis Ababa with a non-colonial history that has granted it a special place in African consciousness). These trajectories enable comparisons with those of postcolonial cities on other continents. This, in turn, highlights the fact that Africa – today, the least urbanised continent on an increasingly urbanised globe – is in the thick of processes of large-scale urban transformation, illustrated in diverse ways by the case studies that make up the foundation of this publication.

Portfolio risk forecasting has been and continues to be an active research field for both academics and practitioners. Almost all institutional investment management firms use quantitative models for their portfolio forecasting, and researchers have explored models' econometric foundations, relative performance, and implications for capital market behavior and asset pricing equilibrium. "Portfolio Risk Analysis" provides an insightful and thorough overview of financial risk modeling, with an emphasis on practical applications, empirical reality, and historical perspective.

Beginning with mean-variance analysis and the capital asset pricing model, the authors give a comprehensive and detailed account of factor models, which are the key to successful risk analysis in every economic climate. Topics range from the relative merits of fundamental, statistical, and macroeconomic models, to GARCH and other time series models, to the properties of the VIX volatility index. The book covers both mainstream and alternative asset classes, and includes in-depth treatments of model integration and evaluation. Credit and liquidity risk and the uncertainty of extreme events are examined in an intuitive and rigorous way. An extensive literature review accompanies each topic. The authors complement basic modeling techniques with references to applications, empirical studies, and advanced mathematical texts.

This book is essential for financial practitioners, researchers, scholars, and students who want to understand the nature of financial markets or work toward improving them.

The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data examines new developments in the theory and applications of panel data. It includes basic topics like non-stationary panels, co-integration in panels, multifactor panel models, panel unit roots, measurement error in panels, incidental parameters and dynamic panels, spatial panels, nonparametric panel data, random coefficients, treatment effects, sample selection, count panel data, limited dependent variable panel models, unbalanced panel models with interactive effects and influential observations in panel data. Contributors to the Handbook explore applications of panel data to a wide range of topics in economics, including health, labor, marketing, trade, productivity, and macro applications in panels. This Handbook is an informative and comprehensive guide for both those who are relatively new to the field and for those wishing to extend their knowledge to the frontier. It is a trusted and definitive source on panel data, having been edited by Professor Badi Baltagi-widely recognized as one of the foremost econometricians in the area of panel data econometrics. Professor Baltagi has successfully recruited an all-star cast of experts for each of the well-chosen topics in the Handbook.

Strategic foresight is discipline that organizations adopt to gather, interpret, manage information about the future environment they plan to operate in. This book introduces the concept of strategic foresight and advocates a holistic and systemic foresight approach comprising five phases that are suitable for organizations in the public and private sectors. Using real-life cases as practical examples, the book demonstrates how organizations can apply a range of foresight methods and resources across the phases from intelligence to implementation. The book offers an opportunity to learn by all key stakeholders. It enhances the understanding of the National Research Organization's Foresight exercise (as the complex social phenomenon) in its context. The case study of the National Research Organisation provides lessons and insights that can improve both the theoretical and practical implementation of the Foresight Exercise. Dr Mlungisi Cele Acting Head: National Advisory Council on Innovation Department of Science and Technology, Republic of South Africa Foresight methodologies have been widely spreading among business and research organizations worldwide during the last decades. The weakest point of many forward-looking activities so far was the lack of their practical use. The books shows, on a number of cases, how a Foresight study, being wisely designed and implemented, can become a useful navigation tool for increasing competitiveness in the fast changing environment. Dr Alexander Sokolov Professor, HSE National Research University, Russia Director, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge / International Research and Educational Foresight Centre Very useful tool to describe how organizations assess the future and formulate strategic plans using a systemic foresight methodology Ibon Zugasti Managing Director in PROSPEKTIKER and Chair of the Millennium Project Node in Spain A comprehensive source of knowledge on complex issues of technology foresight process, from conception to commercialization of key technologies, made easy to understand and useful for aspiring futurists seeking to learn more about the matters at hand. Dr Surachai Sathitkunarat Executive Director, APEC Center for Technology Foresight (APEC CTF) Assistant to the President Office of National Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation Policy Council (NXPO) Thailand This book provides a very good coverage of the end-to-end methodology for technology-based innovation through the use of diverse and relevant business use cases. Very often, books on this theme only expound the approaches. Sarah goes beyond in sharing the pitfalls and challenges during the different stages of the systemic foresight methodology so that readers can learn and avoid the mistakes that other companies made. The emphasis on open innovation and intellectual property management is valuable as many organizations fail to deliver the vision due to insufficient attention on these two aspects. A must read if you wish to master strategic foresight. Dr Terence Hung Chief, Future Intelligence Technologies Rolls-Royce Singapore Pte Ltd Why do people want to know the future? People want to use budget efficiently or don't want to waste time? Aside from those who see the future, like fortune tellers, how do we make the future? Foresight is known as a method of creating the future in a way that many people has been using. So how is it different between Forecast and Foresight? This book will help answer that. Dr Kuniko Urashima Deputy Director of Foresight Center National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), Japan .

This volume uses state of the art models from the frontier of macroeconomics to answer key questions about how the economy functions and how policy should be conducted. The contributions cover a wide range of issues in macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy. They combine high level mathematics with economic analysis, and highlight the need to update our mathematical toolbox in order to understand the increased complexity of the macroeconomic environment. The volume represents hard evidence of high research intensity in many fields of macroeconomics, and warns against interpreting the scope of macroeconomics too narrowly. The mainstream business cycle analysis, based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) modelling of a particular type, has been criticised for its inability to predict or resolve the recent financial crisis. However, macroeconomic research on financial, information, and learning imperfections had not yet made their way into many of the pre-crisis DSGE models because practical econometric versions of those models were mainly designed to fit data periods that did not include financial crises. A major response to the limitations of those older DSGE models is an active research program to bring big financial shocks and various kinds of financial, learning, and labour market frictions into a new generation of DSGE models for guiding policy. The contributors to this book utilise models and modelling assumptions that go beyond particular modelling conventions. By using alternative yet plausible assumptions, they seek to enrich our knowledge and ability to explain macroeconomic phenomena. They contribute to expanding the frontier of macroeconomic knowledge in ways that will prove useful for macroeconomic policy.

The first complete guide to mastering the forecasting techniques essential for short-term trading success While a majority of trading systems incorporate only existing or past pricing activity into their simulations, the most successful ones use forecasting methods to establish future activity. Now, Ed Gately, a leading computerized trading systems developer, creates a groundbreaking approach to forecasting that includes setting price and time targets to anticipate future price movements-an essential step in reducing risk, increasing reaction time, and yielding greater returns. With detailed coverage of such important targeting techniques as Fibonacci numbers, Fibonacci ratios, and cycle analysis, as well as support/resistance, moving average and Raff channels, Bollinger bands, and trendlines, Forecasting Profits Using Price & Time enables you to integrate today's most accurate computerized forecasting models into your current system. Once in place, these techniques can be combined to obtain confirmation, thereby strengthening reliability. These key concepts for maximizing profits over short periods of time include: Forecasting price movements of securities by using technical analysis. Setting risk objectives and establishing stop loss levels. Confirming change of trend with moving averages, candlesticks, and other methods of plotting price movement. Using Fibonacci, Gann's, Carolan's, and other number series to target future prices and establish timing of future changes in trend. Detailed charts and graphs, as well as helpful models that can be used to test individual systems before engaging in actual trades, make this an indispensable resource for learning how to forecast accurately-and successfully.

Economists often look at markets as given, and try to make predictions about who will do what and what will happen in these markets Market design, by contrast, does not take markets as given; instead, it combines insights from economic and game theory together with common sense and lessons learned from empirical work and experimental analysis to aid in the design and implementation of actual markets In recent years the field has grown dramatically, partially because of the successful wave of spectrum auctions in the US and in Europe, which have been designed by a number of prominent economists, and partially because of the increase use of the Internet as the platform over which markets are designed and run There is now a large number of applications and a growing theoretical literature. The Handbook of Market Design brings together the latest research from leading experts to provide a comprehensive description of applied market design over the last two decades In particular, it surveys matching markets: environments where there is a need to match large two-sided populations to one another, such as medical residents and hospitals, law clerks and judges, or patients and kidney donors It also examines a number of applications related to electronic markets, e-commerce, and the effect of the Internet on competition between exchanges

To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology.

This publication provides updated statistics on a comprehensive set of economic, financial, social, and environmental measures as well as select indicators for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The report covers the 49 regional members of ADB. It discusses trends in development progress and the challenges to achieving inclusive and sustainable economic growth across Asia and the Pacific. This 53rd edition looks at how most economies in the region have bounced back to varying degrees from the COVID-19 pandemic. A gradual recovery of cyclical industries, the release of pent-up consumer demand, and increased confidence levels have contributed to developing Asia's economy. To put into practice the "leave no one behind" principle of the Sustainable Development Goals, detailed and informative data is crucial. The 2022 report features a special supplement, Mapping the Public Voice for Development-Natural Language Processing of Social Media Text Data, which explores how natural language processing techniques can be applied to social media text data to map public sentiment and inform development research and policy making.

In 2050 there will be 9.3 billion people alive - compared with 7 billion today - and the number will still be rising. The population aged over sixty-five will have more than doubled, to more than 16 per cent; China's GDP will be 80 per cent more than America's; and the number of cars on India's roads will have increased by 3,880 per cent. And, in 2050 it should be clear whether we are alone in the universe. What other megachanges can we expect - and what will their impact be? This comprehensive and compelling book will cover the most significant trends that are shaping the coming decades, with each of its twenty chapters elegantly and authoritatively outlined by Economist contributors, and rich in supporting facts and figures. It will chart the rise and fall of fertility rates across continents; how energy resources will change in light of new technology, and how different nations will deal with major developments in science and warfare. Megachange is essential reading for anyone who wants to know what the next four decades hold in store.

Can anything prevent China surpassing the United States and becoming the world's superpower? While dozens of recent books and articles have predicted the near-certainty of China's rise to global supremacy, this book boldly counters such widely-held assumptions. Timothy Beardson brings to light the daunting array of challenges that today confront China, as well as the inadequacy of the policy responses. Threats to China come on many fronts, Beardson shows, and by their number and sheer weight these problems will thwart any ambition to become the world's "Number One power." Drawing on extensive research and experience living and working in Asia over the last 35 years, the author spells out China's situation: an inexorable demographic future of a shrinking labor force, relentless aging, extreme gender disparity, and even a falling population. Also, the nation faces social instability, a devastated environment, a predominantly low-tech economy with inadequate innovation, the absence of an effective welfare safety net, an ossified governance structure, and radical Islam lurking at the borders. Beardson's nuanced, first-hand look at China acknowledges its historic achievements while tempering predictions of its imminent hegemony with a no-nonsense dose of reality.

How will global warming affect developing countries, which rely heavily on agriculture as a source of economic growth? William Cline asserts that developing countries have more at risk, such as their production capacity, than industrial countries as global warming worsens. Using general circulation models, Cline boldly examines 2071-99 to forecast the effects of global warming and its economic impact into the next decade. This detailed study outlines existing studies on climate change; Cline finds the Stern Report for the UK government's estimates most reliable; estimates projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and agricultural capacity; and concludes with policy recommendations. Cline finds that agricultural production in developing countries may fall an average of 16 percent, and if global warming progresses at its current rate, India's agricultural capacity could fall as much as 40 percent. Thus, policymakers should address this phenomenon now before the world's developing countries are adversely and irreversibly affected.

_______ 'Excellent' Martin Wolf, Financial Times Books of the Year 'Essential' Daniel Pink, author of Drive 'Wonderful' Martin Ford, author of The Rise of the Robots _______ Profit. Innovation. Greed. Welcome to the gig economy. Between Uber drivers and Airbnb hosts, freelance jobs are becoming an increasingly prominent part of our economy. Gigged goes inside the Silicon Valley companies leading the way to this emerging 'gig economy'. It tells the stories of the workers - from computer programmers to online comment moderators - who are getting by in a new wave of precarious, short-term employment. And it sketches out what tomorrow's economy might look like: one where the fortunate get to work when they want, how they want, while the rest live lives of extraordinary hardship. It might just be the future of work for all of us. *Longlisted for the FT/McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award* Praise for Gigged 'Well researched and beautifully written . . . Essential reading for anyone who is interested in understanding the future of our economy and society.' Ha-Joon Chang, author of 23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism 'Well crafted . . . a multitude of anecdotes supported by data and extensive reporting.' Forbes 'Kessler's timely book explores the personal, corporate and societal stories behind a massive tech-driven shift away from permanent office-based employment.' Books of the Month, Financial Times 'Kessler illuminates a great divide: For people with desirable skills, the gig economy often permits a more engaging, entrepreneurial lifestyle; but for the unskilled who turn to such work out of necessity, it's merely "the best of bad options".' Harvard Business Review 'Sarah Kessler writes like a dream. If you want to know how work is changing and how you too must change to keep up, you must read this book.' Dan Lyons, author of Disrupted

'A near miracle' Ha-Joon Chang, author of 23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism

According to the economy, we have never been wealthier or happier. So why doesn't it feel that way? The Growth Delusion explores how we prioritise growth maximisation without stopping to think about the costs. So much of what is important to our well-being, from safe streets to sound minds, lies outside the purview of statistics. In a book that is both thought-provoking and entertaining, David Pilling argues that our steadfast loyalty to growth is informing misguided policies, and proposes different criteria for measuring our success.

The important data of economics are in the form of time series; therefore, the statistical methods used will have to be those designed for time series data. New methods for analyzing series containing no trends have been developed by communication engineering, and much recent research has been devoted to adapting and extending these methods so that they will be suitable for use with economic series. This book presents the important results of this research and further advances the application of the recently developed Theory of Spectra to economics. In particular, Professor Hatanaka demonstrates the new technique in treating two problems-business cycle indicators, and the acceleration principle existing in department store data. Originally published in 1964. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.

Today more than three quarters of a billion people go hungry in a world where food is plentiful. A distinguished scientist here sets out an agenda for addressing this situation. Initially published in 1997 in the United Kingdom, the book is now available in the first edition produced for the Western hemisphere. In it, the author has updated information to reflect current economic indicators. This volume includes a foreword written for the previous edition by Ismail Serageldin of the World Bank.The original Green Revolution produced new technologies for farmers, creating food abundance. A second transformation of agriculture is now required specifically, Gordon Conway argues, a "doubly green" revolution that stresses conservation as well as productivity. He calls for researchers and farmers to forge genuine partnerships in an effort to design better plants and animals. He also urges them to develop (or rediscover) alternatives to inorganic fertilizers and pesticides, improve soil and water management, and enhance earning opportunities for the poor, especially women."

Uses a problem solving framework to provide students with the means for acquiring the necessary skills in the application of economic theory. Enables them to understand that economic theory does describe authentic relationships by actual people in the existing world.