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Books > Business & Economics > Economics > Economic forecasting
THE REALITY AND THE RHETORIC examines the gap between the external reporting of four Australian organisations and their internal management practices and systems necessary to support comprehensive and reliable disclosure. The book finds evidence of a significant rift between the external rhetoric of sustainability and the internal management processes and culture. However, the book also finds that the rhetoric can be effective in driving real change internally, as organisations seek to close the gap between the reality and rhetoric of sustainability reporting.
Case studies of metropolitan cities in nine African countries – from Egypt in the north to three in West and Central Africa, two in East Africa and three in Southern Africa – make up the empirical foundation of this publication. The interrelated themes addressed in these chapters – the national influence on urban development, the popular dynamics that shape urban development and the global currents on urban development – make up its framework. All authors and editors are African, as is the publisher. The only exception is Göran Therborn whose recent book, Cities of Power, served as motivation for this volume. Accordingly, the issue common to all case studies is the often conflictual powers that are exercised by national, global and popular forces in the development of these African cities. Rather than locating the case studies in an exclusively African historical context, the focus is on the trajectories of the postcolonial city (with the important exception of Addis Ababa with a non-colonial history that has granted it a special place in African consciousness). These trajectories enable comparisons with those of postcolonial cities on other continents. This, in turn, highlights the fact that Africa – today, the least urbanised continent on an increasingly urbanised globe – is in the thick of processes of large-scale urban transformation, illustrated in diverse ways by the case studies that make up the foundation of this publication.
Strategic foresight is discipline that organizations adopt to gather, interpret, manage information about the future environment they plan to operate in. This book introduces the concept of strategic foresight and advocates a holistic and systemic foresight approach comprising five phases that are suitable for organizations in the public and private sectors. Using real-life cases as practical examples, the book demonstrates how organizations can apply a range of foresight methods and resources across the phases from intelligence to implementation. The book offers an opportunity to learn by all key stakeholders. It enhances the understanding of the National Research Organization's Foresight exercise (as the complex social phenomenon) in its context. The case study of the National Research Organisation provides lessons and insights that can improve both the theoretical and practical implementation of the Foresight Exercise. Dr Mlungisi Cele Acting Head: National Advisory Council on Innovation Department of Science and Technology, Republic of South Africa Foresight methodologies have been widely spreading among business and research organizations worldwide during the last decades. The weakest point of many forward-looking activities so far was the lack of their practical use. The books shows, on a number of cases, how a Foresight study, being wisely designed and implemented, can become a useful navigation tool for increasing competitiveness in the fast changing environment. Dr Alexander Sokolov Professor, HSE National Research University, Russia Director, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge / International Research and Educational Foresight Centre Very useful tool to describe how organizations assess the future and formulate strategic plans using a systemic foresight methodology Ibon Zugasti Managing Director in PROSPEKTIKER and Chair of the Millennium Project Node in Spain A comprehensive source of knowledge on complex issues of technology foresight process, from conception to commercialization of key technologies, made easy to understand and useful for aspiring futurists seeking to learn more about the matters at hand. Dr Surachai Sathitkunarat Executive Director, APEC Center for Technology Foresight (APEC CTF) Assistant to the President Office of National Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation Policy Council (NXPO) Thailand This book provides a very good coverage of the end-to-end methodology for technology-based innovation through the use of diverse and relevant business use cases. Very often, books on this theme only expound the approaches. Sarah goes beyond in sharing the pitfalls and challenges during the different stages of the systemic foresight methodology so that readers can learn and avoid the mistakes that other companies made. The emphasis on open innovation and intellectual property management is valuable as many organizations fail to deliver the vision due to insufficient attention on these two aspects. A must read if you wish to master strategic foresight. Dr Terence Hung Chief, Future Intelligence Technologies Rolls-Royce Singapore Pte Ltd Why do people want to know the future? People want to use budget efficiently or don't want to waste time? Aside from those who see the future, like fortune tellers, how do we make the future? Foresight is known as a method of creating the future in a way that many people has been using. So how is it different between Forecast and Foresight? This book will help answer that. Dr Kuniko Urashima Deputy Director of Foresight Center National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), Japan .
This volume uses state of the art models from the frontier of macroeconomics to answer key questions about how the economy functions and how policy should be conducted. The contributions cover a wide range of issues in macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy. They combine high level mathematics with economic analysis, and highlight the need to update our mathematical toolbox in order to understand the increased complexity of the macroeconomic environment. The volume represents hard evidence of high research intensity in many fields of macroeconomics, and warns against interpreting the scope of macroeconomics too narrowly. The mainstream business cycle analysis, based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) modelling of a particular type, has been criticised for its inability to predict or resolve the recent financial crisis. However, macroeconomic research on financial, information, and learning imperfections had not yet made their way into many of the pre-crisis DSGE models because practical econometric versions of those models were mainly designed to fit data periods that did not include financial crises. A major response to the limitations of those older DSGE models is an active research program to bring big financial shocks and various kinds of financial, learning, and labour market frictions into a new generation of DSGE models for guiding policy. The contributors to this book utilise models and modelling assumptions that go beyond particular modelling conventions. By using alternative yet plausible assumptions, they seek to enrich our knowledge and ability to explain macroeconomic phenomena. They contribute to expanding the frontier of macroeconomic knowledge in ways that will prove useful for macroeconomic policy.
This is a book is for leaders, to aid their practice in strategy, decision making and change - it's a very practical (field) guide to foresight and foresight tools. It's aimed at leaders in manufacturing, service, non-profit, government and fourth sector organisations. Strategic Foresight is a set of skills and tools used to explore potential futures exercising your 'futures muscles' so that you are able to plan for and take advantage of these possible futures. The book first explores how we think about the future, looking at ambiguity and uncertainty and how these play a role in our ability to think into the future. It introduces a simple model of preferred thinking styles and talks about the 'baggage' and values that form our perceptions. The next section covers models, tools and maps that people will find useful for developing their own Foresight and using this knowledge to make decisions, whilst uncovering innovation and creativity to turn this Foresight knowledge to competitive advantage. This is not a comprehensive list - just a selection of the most effective tools with their use and case studies that are easy and effective to use. The next two sections cover: How to identify emerging trends; what impact they may have on your business; the strategic importance of early recognition; and how to apply the knowledge in your business. Harnessing Foresight as a spring board for innovation and creativity to develop new paradigms and take advantage of what may come. Finally, the author pulls it all together by showing how to develop a practical method of exploring potential futures in the context of your existing business in order to take robust decisions and develop strategies that help you work towards your preferred future. Case studies are interspersed throughout the book to illustrate the points made along with exercises, where appropriate, to encourage people to 'think along' with the ideas and new ways of approaching Strategic Foresight.
How will global warming affect developing countries, which rely heavily on agriculture as a source of economic growth? William Cline asserts that developing countries have more at risk, such as their production capacity, than industrial countries as global warming worsens. Using general circulation models, Cline boldly examines 2071-99 to forecast the effects of global warming and its economic impact into the next decade. This detailed study outlines existing studies on climate change; Cline finds the Stern Report for the UK government's estimates most reliable; estimates projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and agricultural capacity; and concludes with policy recommendations. Cline finds that agricultural production in developing countries may fall an average of 16 percent, and if global warming progresses at its current rate, India's agricultural capacity could fall as much as 40 percent. Thus, policymakers should address this phenomenon now before the world's developing countries are adversely and irreversibly affected.
The Tyranny Of Growth is a modern epic that exposes the lie of economic growth. It provocatively recounts how the 2008 global financial meltdown and COVID-19 pandemic have become the leading cause of governments' and multilateral institutions' global spectacular failure. It brilliantly explains how a single number - GDP - came to have such bewildering power over our lives, despite its ruinous consequences. But ultimately the book strives to illuminate a new way of imagining the world.
This publication provides updated statistics on a comprehensive set of economic, financial, social, and environmental measures as well as select indicators for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The report covers the 49 regional members of ADB. It discusses trends in development progress and the challenges to achieving inclusive and sustainable economic growth across Asia and the Pacific. This 53rd edition looks at how most economies in the region have bounced back to varying degrees from the COVID-19 pandemic. A gradual recovery of cyclical industries, the release of pent-up consumer demand, and increased confidence levels have contributed to developing Asia's economy. To put into practice the "leave no one behind" principle of the Sustainable Development Goals, detailed and informative data is crucial. The 2022 report features a special supplement, Mapping the Public Voice for Development-Natural Language Processing of Social Media Text Data, which explores how natural language processing techniques can be applied to social media text data to map public sentiment and inform development research and policy making.
The important data of economics are in the form of time series; therefore, the statistical methods used will have to be those designed for time series data. New methods for analyzing series containing no trends have been developed by communication engineering, and much recent research has been devoted to adapting and extending these methods so that they will be suitable for use with economic series. This book presents the important results of this research and further advances the application of the recently developed Theory of Spectra to economics. In particular, Professor Hatanaka demonstrates the new technique in treating two problems-business cycle indicators, and the acceleration principle existing in department store data. Originally published in 1964. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.
Quantitative marketing is not an easy subject to grasp. Quantitative Analysis in Marketing Management introduces a kinder, gentler approach to the various quantitative concepts and techniques in marketing management. This exciting new book examines techniques drawn from other management disciplines (e.g. financial management and operations management) and shows how these techniques can be applied to marketing management. To aid comprehension, a number of problems and case studies are included at the end of each chapter. The text is divided into three parts:
The first complete guide to mastering the forecasting techniques essential for short-term trading success While a majority of trading systems incorporate only existing or past pricing activity into their simulations, the most successful ones use forecasting methods to establish future activity. Now, Ed Gately, a leading computerized trading systems developer, creates a groundbreaking approach to forecasting that includes setting price and time targets to anticipate future price movements-an essential step in reducing risk, increasing reaction time, and yielding greater returns. With detailed coverage of such important targeting techniques as Fibonacci numbers, Fibonacci ratios, and cycle analysis, as well as support/resistance, moving average and Raff channels, Bollinger bands, and trendlines, Forecasting Profits Using Price & Time enables you to integrate today's most accurate computerized forecasting models into your current system. Once in place, these techniques can be combined to obtain confirmation, thereby strengthening reliability. These key concepts for maximizing profits over short periods of time include: Forecasting price movements of securities by using technical analysis. Setting risk objectives and establishing stop loss levels. Confirming change of trend with moving averages, candlesticks, and other methods of plotting price movement. Using Fibonacci, Gann's, Carolan's, and other number series to target future prices and establish timing of future changes in trend. Detailed charts and graphs, as well as helpful models that can be used to test individual systems before engaging in actual trades, make this an indispensable resource for learning how to forecast accurately-and successfully.
Uses a problem solving framework to provide students with the means for acquiring the necessary skills in the application of economic theory. Enables them to understand that economic theory does describe authentic relationships by actual people in the existing world.
Sufficient provisioning for health and social protection will help support a swift, inclusive recovery in Pacific island countries. This edition of the Pacific Economic Monitor discusses the outlook for 2021 and key issues for recovery from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis, including vaccine procurement and distribution.
Vince Cable's bestselling book, The Storm, explored and explained the causes of the 2008 world economic crisis and how Britain should respond to the great challenges it brought. In After the Storm, Cable, who was Business Secretary in the 2010-2015 Coalition Government, provides a unique perspective on the state of the global financial markets and how the British economy has fared since 2008. Providing a previously unreported inside view of the Coalition, After the Storm offers a carefully considered perspective on how the British economy should be managed over the next decade and beyond. This timely book is a fascinating and urgent intervention from one of the key figures in British politics of the past two decades.
This book provides a comprehensive description of the state-of-the-art in modelling global and national economies. It introduces the long-run structural approach to modelling that can be readily adopted for use in understanding how economies work, and in generating forecasts for decision- and policy-makers. The book contains a thorough description of recent developments in macroeconomics and econometrics, which should be of interest to advanced students and researchers, but is also written to be accessible and helpful to practitioners in government and the private sector. The long-run structural approach is illustrated with various global and national examples, including a step-by-step description of the development and use of a model of the UK economy. Throughout, the book emphasises the use of macroeconometric modelling in the real world and is written in a way that ensures the techniques illustrated can be replicated or applied in new contexts. The transparency and pragmatism of the modelling approach used within this book will be attractive to practitioners who need manageable and interpretable models to answer specific questions.
Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics.
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