This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings.

Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.

Case studies of metropolitan cities in nine African countries – from Egypt in the north to three in West and Central Africa, two in East Africa and three in Southern Africa – make up the empirical foundation of this publication.

The interrelated themes addressed in these chapters – the national influence on urban development, the popular dynamics that shape urban development and the global currents on urban development – make up its framework. All authors and editors are African, as is the publisher. The only exception is Göran Therborn whose recent book, Cities of Power, served as motivation for this volume. Accordingly, the issue common to all case studies is the often conflictual powers that are exercised by national, global and popular forces in the development of these African cities.

Rather than locating the case studies in an exclusively African historical context, the focus is on the trajectories of the postcolonial city (with the important exception of Addis Ababa with a non-colonial history that has granted it a special place in African consciousness). These trajectories enable comparisons with those of postcolonial cities on other continents. This, in turn, highlights the fact that Africa – today, the least urbanised continent on an increasingly urbanised globe – is in the thick of processes of large-scale urban transformation, illustrated in diverse ways by the case studies that make up the foundation of this publication.

This volume uses state of the art models from the frontier of macroeconomics to answer key questions about how the economy functions and how policy should be conducted. The contributions cover a wide range of issues in macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy. They combine high level mathematics with economic analysis, and highlight the need to update our mathematical toolbox in order to understand the increased complexity of the macroeconomic environment. The volume represents hard evidence of high research intensity in many fields of macroeconomics, and warns against interpreting the scope of macroeconomics too narrowly. The mainstream business cycle analysis, based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) modelling of a particular type, has been criticised for its inability to predict or resolve the recent financial crisis. However, macroeconomic research on financial, information, and learning imperfections had not yet made their way into many of the pre-crisis DSGE models because practical econometric versions of those models were mainly designed to fit data periods that did not include financial crises. A major response to the limitations of those older DSGE models is an active research program to bring big financial shocks and various kinds of financial, learning, and labour market frictions into a new generation of DSGE models for guiding policy. The contributors to this book utilise models and modelling assumptions that go beyond particular modelling conventions. By using alternative yet plausible assumptions, they seek to enrich our knowledge and ability to explain macroeconomic phenomena. They contribute to expanding the frontier of macroeconomic knowledge in ways that will prove useful for macroeconomic policy.

From two leaders of the FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) movement, comes a bold, contrarian guide to retiring at any age, with a reproducible formula to financial independence

A bull***t-free guide to growing your wealth, retiring early, and living life on your own terms.

Kristy Shen retired with a million dollars at the age of thirty-one, and she did it without hitting a home run on the stock market, starting the next Snapchat in her garage, or investing in hot real estate. Learn how to cut down on spending without decreasing your quality of life, build a million-dollar portfolio, fortify your investments to survive bear markets and black-swan events, and use the 4 percent rule and the Yield Shield–so you can quit the rat race forever.

Not everyone can become an entrepreneur or a real estate baron; the rest of us need Shen’s mathematically proven approach to retire decades before sixty-five.

The Tyranny Of Growth is a modern epic that exposes the lie of economic growth.

It provocatively recounts how the 2008 global financial meltdown and COVID-19 pandemic have become the leading cause of governments' and multilateral institutions' global spectacular failure. It brilliantly explains how a single number - GDP - came to have such bewildering power over our lives, despite its ruinous consequences.

But ultimately the book strives to illuminate a new way of imagining the world. 

The important data of economics are in the form of time series; therefore, the statistical methods used will have to be those designed for time series data. New methods for analyzing series containing no trends have been developed by communication engineering, and much recent research has been devoted to adapting and extending these methods so that they will be suitable for use with economic series. This book presents the important results of this research and further advances the application of the recently developed Theory of Spectra to economics. In particular, Professor Hatanaka demonstrates the new technique in treating two problems-business cycle indicators, and the acceleration principle existing in department store data. Originally published in 1964. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.

Quantitative marketing is not an easy subject to grasp. Quantitative Analysis in Marketing Management introduces a kinder, gentler approach to the various quantitative concepts and techniques in marketing management. This exciting new book examines techniques drawn from other management disciplines (e.g. financial management and operations management) and shows how these techniques can be applied to marketing management. To aid comprehension, a number of problems and case studies are included at the end of each chapter. The text is divided into three parts:

• statistics, demand analysis and forecasting;
• financial analysis, operations and control systems; and
• future trends

The first complete guide to mastering the forecasting techniques essential for short-term trading success While a majority of trading systems incorporate only existing or past pricing activity into their simulations, the most successful ones use forecasting methods to establish future activity. Now, Ed Gately, a leading computerized trading systems developer, creates a groundbreaking approach to forecasting that includes setting price and time targets to anticipate future price movements-an essential step in reducing risk, increasing reaction time, and yielding greater returns. With detailed coverage of such important targeting techniques as Fibonacci numbers, Fibonacci ratios, and cycle analysis, as well as support/resistance, moving average and Raff channels, Bollinger bands, and trendlines, Forecasting Profits Using Price & Time enables you to integrate today's most accurate computerized forecasting models into your current system. Once in place, these techniques can be combined to obtain confirmation, thereby strengthening reliability. These key concepts for maximizing profits over short periods of time include: Forecasting price movements of securities by using technical analysis. Setting risk objectives and establishing stop loss levels. Confirming change of trend with moving averages, candlesticks, and other methods of plotting price movement. Using Fibonacci, Gann's, Carolan's, and other number series to target future prices and establish timing of future changes in trend. Detailed charts and graphs, as well as helpful models that can be used to test individual systems before engaging in actual trades, make this an indispensable resource for learning how to forecast accurately-and successfully.

_______ 'Excellent' Martin Wolf, Financial Times Books of the Year 'Essential' Daniel Pink, author of Drive 'Wonderful' Martin Ford, author of The Rise of the Robots _______ Profit. Innovation. Greed. Welcome to the gig economy. Between Uber drivers and Airbnb hosts, freelance jobs are becoming an increasingly prominent part of our economy. Gigged goes inside the Silicon Valley companies leading the way to this emerging 'gig economy'. It tells the stories of the workers - from computer programmers to online comment moderators - who are getting by in a new wave of precarious, short-term employment. And it sketches out what tomorrow's economy might look like: one where the fortunate get to work when they want, how they want, while the rest live lives of extraordinary hardship. It might just be the future of work for all of us. *Longlisted for the FT/McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award* Praise for Gigged 'Well researched and beautifully written . . . Essential reading for anyone who is interested in understanding the future of our economy and society.' Ha-Joon Chang, author of 23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism 'Well crafted . . . a multitude of anecdotes supported by data and extensive reporting.' Forbes 'Kessler's timely book explores the personal, corporate and societal stories behind a massive tech-driven shift away from permanent office-based employment.' Books of the Month, Financial Times 'Kessler illuminates a great divide: For people with desirable skills, the gig economy often permits a more engaging, entrepreneurial lifestyle; but for the unskilled who turn to such work out of necessity, it's merely "the best of bad options".' Harvard Business Review 'Sarah Kessler writes like a dream. If you want to know how work is changing and how you too must change to keep up, you must read this book.' Dan Lyons, author of Disrupted

Uses a problem solving framework to provide students with the means for acquiring the necessary skills in the application of economic theory. Enables them to understand that economic theory does describe authentic relationships by actual people in the existing world.

Sufficient provisioning for health and social protection will help support a swift, inclusive recovery in Pacific island countries. This edition of the Pacific Economic Monitor discusses the outlook for 2021 and key issues for recovery from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis, including vaccine procurement and distribution.

Vince Cable's bestselling book, The Storm, explored and explained the causes of the 2008 world economic crisis and how Britain should respond to the great challenges it brought. In After the Storm, Cable, who was Business Secretary in the 2010-2015 Coalition Government, provides a unique perspective on the state of the global financial markets and how the British economy has fared since 2008. Providing a previously unreported inside view of the Coalition, After the Storm offers a carefully considered perspective on how the British economy should be managed over the next decade and beyond. This timely book is a fascinating and urgent intervention from one of the key figures in British politics of the past two decades.

This book provides a comprehensive description of the state-of-the-art in modelling global and national economies. It introduces the long-run structural approach to modelling that can be readily adopted for use in understanding how economies work, and in generating forecasts for decision- and policy-makers. The book contains a thorough description of recent developments in macroeconomics and econometrics, which should be of interest to advanced students and researchers, but is also written to be accessible and helpful to practitioners in government and the private sector. The long-run structural approach is illustrated with various global and national examples, including a step-by-step description of the development and use of a model of the UK economy. Throughout, the book emphasises the use of macroeconometric modelling in the real world and is written in a way that ensures the techniques illustrated can be replicated or applied in new contexts. The transparency and pragmatism of the modelling approach used within this book will be attractive to practitioners who need manageable and interpretable models to answer specific questions.

Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics.