To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts
generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based
on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of
Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many
publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch',
and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a
lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive
research area, this accessible book brings together current
theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert
adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis
is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which
the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts'
modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more
useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book
will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in
forecasting methodology.
General
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