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Books > Business & Economics > Economics > Economic forecasting
Growth in developing Asia is moderating but remains robust. As
global trade slows and investment weakens, regional growth
forecasts are trimmed from Asian Development Outlook 2019 by 0.3
percentage points for 2019 and by 0.1 points for 2020 compared to
April forecasts. The revisions reflect gloomier prospects for
international trade and evidence of slowing growth in the advanced
economies and the People's Republic of China, as well as in India
and the larger economies in East and Southeast Asia. Inflation
remains benign in the region, but pressure is building slightly as
food prices rise. Inflation across developing Asia is forecast at
2.7% this year and next, or 0.2 percentage points up from April
forecasts.
Wealth, measured comprehensively to include all assets (produced,
human, and natural capital) underpins national income, and
sustained growth over the long term requires investment in this
broad portfolio of assets. Changing Wealth of Nations 2020 firmly
establishes wealth as a measure of sustainability and key component
of country analytics by i) expanding the coverage and improving the
quality of all assets, notably natural capital, and ii)
demonstrating how wealth accounts can be applied in analytics to
areas of major policy concern like climate change and natural
resource policy reform.
This report contains the latest estimates of input-output tables
for East Asia and a more comprehensive range of statistics relevant
to analyzing production, trade, and interrelations between firms,
industries, and economy sectors in the region. It is an update of
the published in 2018. The tables and indicators presented are
derived from the Multi-Regional Input-Output Tables database
maintained by the Asian Development Bank. The reports serve as key
resources for understanding dynamic trade and production linkages
in regional economy, providing analytical support for data-driven
decision-making and policy implementation.
This report contains the latest estimates of input-output tables
for Southeast Asia and the Pacific and a more comprehensive range
of statistics relevant to analyzing production, trade, and
interrelations between firms, industries, and economy sectors in
the region. It is an update of the Economic Indicators for
Southeastern Asia and the Pacific: Input-Output Tables published in
2018. The tables and indicators presented are derived from the
Multi-Regional Input-Output Tables database maintained by the Asian
Development Bank. The reports serve as key resources for
understanding dynamic trade and production linkages in regional
economy, providing analytical support for data-driven
decision-making and policy implementation.
This report contains the latest estimates of input-output tables
for South and Central Asia and a more comprehensive range of
statistics relevant to analyzing production, trade, and
interrelations between firms, industries, and economy sectors in
the region. It is an update of the Economic Indicators for South
and Central Asia: Input-Output Tables published in 2018. The tables
and indicators presented are derived from the Multi-Regional
Input-Output Tables database maintained by the Asian Development
Bank. The reports serve as key resources for understanding dynamic
trade and production linkages in regional economy, providing
analytical support for data-driven decision-making and policy
implementation.
This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric
analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and
Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on
business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative
collection of their most important essays on the subject, along
with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's
principal themes and findings.
Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to
address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling,
and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business
cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding
that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They
consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die
of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence
that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although
they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as
they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of
business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together
and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and
contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing
between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations.
And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in
particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than
merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that
the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of
future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other
indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors
make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including
nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and
regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for
policymakers, bankers, and business executives.
'A fascinating, must-read book covering a vast array of topics from
the arts to the sciences, technology to policy. This is a brilliant
and thought-provoking response to one of the most critical
questions of our age: how we will come up with the next generation
of innovation and truly fresh ideas?' Mustafa Suleyman, cofounder
of DeepMind and Google VP 'Have "big ideas" and big social and
economic changes disappeared from the scene? Michael Bhaskar's
Human Frontiers is the best look at these all-important questions.'
Tyler Cowen, author of The Great Stagnation and The Complacent
Class 'Michael Bhaskar explores the disturbing possibility that a
complacent, cautious civilization has lost ambition and is slowly
sinking into technological stagnation rather than accelerating into
a magical future. He is calling for bold, adventurous innovators to
go big again. A fascinating book' Matt Ridley, author of How
Innovation Works Where next for humanity? Is our future one of
endless improvement in all areas of life, from technology and
travel to medicine, movies and music? Or are our best years behind
us? It's easy to assume that the story of modern society is one of
consistent, radical progress, but this is no longer true: more
academics are researching than ever before but their work leads to
fewer breakthroughs; innovation is incremental, limited to the
digital sphere; the much-vaunted cure for cancer remains elusive;
space travel has stalled since the heady era of the moonshot;
politics is stuck in a rut, and the creative industries seem
trapped in an ongoing cycle of rehashing genres and classics. The
most ambitious ideas now struggle. Our great-great-great
grandparents saw a series of transformative ideas revolutionise
almost everything in just a few decades. Today, in contrast, short
termism, risk aversion, and fractious decision making leaves the
landscape timid and unimaginative. In Human Frontiers, Michael
Bhaskar draws a vividly entertaining and expansive portrait of
humanity's relationship with big ideas. He argues that stasis at
the frontier is the result of having already pushed so far, taken
easy wins and started to hit limits. But new thinking is still
possible. By adopting bold global approaches, deploying cutting
edge technology like AI and embracing a culture of change, we can
push through and expand afresh. Perfect for anyone who has wondered
why we haven't gone further, this book shows in fascinating detail
how the 21st century could stall - or be the most revolutionary
time in human history.
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