With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. A companion website with downloadable datasets, exercises and lecture slides rounds out the full learning package.

This thoroughly revised second edition of an upper-level undergraduate/graduate text describes many major techniques of forecasting used in economics and business. This is the only time series book to concentrate on the forecasting of economic data and to cover such a broad range of topics. Its key features are: gives a complete description, with applications, of the Box-Jenkins single series modeling techniques; extends the Box-Jenkins techniques to multivariate cases; compares forecasts from purely statistical and econometric models; pays careful attention to such problems as how to evaluate and compare forecasts; covers nonstationary and nonlinear models, co-integration and error-correction models.

Political gridlock in Washington... the lingering effects of the financial crisis... structural problems such as unemployment and the skills gap of our work force... the mediocre K-12 educational system. Are our best days behind us?
Joel Kurtzman persuasively shows why all the talk about America's decline is not only baseless but dead wrong. Our best days, are, in fact, ahead of us.
Four transformational forces--unrivaled manufacturing depth, soaring levels of creativity, massive new energy sources, and gigantic amounts of capital waiting to be invested--have been gathering steam. When combined they will provide the foundation for a much stronger economy, robust growth, and broad-based prosperity that will propel the United States to new heights.
One endlessly repeated anxiety is that "we don't make anything here, anymore." The reality, though, is that the US is the world's dominant manufacturing power--and growing. American companies produce 20 percent of the world's goods in the US and perhaps another 15 to 20 percent outside our country. And much of what we make is recession-proof--such as software, jetliners, medical devices, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and food.
Kurtzman reveals the stories of the unsung heroes who are the creative force leading the second American century, describing the payoff of the investment in our best minds. American companies have stunning levels of talent and creativity at work in the world's fastest growing economic sectors--biotech, pharmaceuticals, computer hardware and software, telecommunications, advanced manufacturing, materials science, and aeronautical and space engineering. In these fields, Americans are without peer and consistently break new ground.
We are coming to the realization that America is no longer beholden to the despots of foreign energy. Thanks to advances in technology developed in the US, we now have among the world's largest energy reserves, and are richer in energy resources than Saudi Arabia and second only to Russia.
These three strengths--manufacturing, soaring levels of creativity, and energy independence--will be magnified and synergistically combined with the unprecedented amount of capital that now lies idle. US companies of all types are hoarding cash and securities worth more than $4 trillion--an amount larger than the world's fourth largest economy, Germany. When the money starts flowing and is invested, it will rapidly propel every part of the economy forward.

South Korea's economic miracle is a well-known story. However, today Korea is confronting a new set of internal and external risks, which may foreshadow the next crisis. The Korean economy has been struggling with the faltering growth momentum and the rise of unprecedented socio-economic problems over recent years well before the pandemic crisis. After abrupt downshifts to markedly slower growth in the early 2000s, economic growth has continued to decelerate. Koreans are grappling with slow income growth, all time-high household debt, high youth unemployment, inequality, and social polarization. Politics is in disarray and is incapable of directing social discourse for the common good. Rapid population aging along with the world's lowest fertility rates stokes fears of Japanification. Simultaneously, disruptive technologies and fast-changing business environment such as the rise of China clash with a range of long-standing structural problems. The contemporary challenges are radically different from those seen in the early stages of industrialization. There are multiple risks that threaten to self-perpetuate low or stagnant growth over the next decade or so, if not an outright financial crisis. Motivated by these latest developments, this book seeks to provide a timely and in-depth analysis of key current issues and foreseeable challenges of the economy, with a provocative reassessment of its future. Based on extensive new empirical works, it examines the underlying causes of the socio-economic problems. In a constructive spirit, it puts in perspective what would constitute critical elements of ideal policy solutions and the direction of the future government's role.

In 2050 there will be 9.3 billion people alive - compared with 7 billion today - and the number will still be rising. The population aged over sixty-five will have more than doubled, to more than 16 per cent; China's GDP will be 80 per cent more than America's; and the number of cars on India's roads will have increased by 3,880 per cent. And, in 2050 it should be clear whether we are alone in the universe. What other megachanges can we expect - and what will their impact be? This comprehensive and compelling book will cover the most significant trends that are shaping the coming decades, with each of its twenty chapters elegantly and authoritatively outlined by Economist contributors, and rich in supporting facts and figures. It will chart the rise and fall of fertility rates across continents; how energy resources will change in light of new technology, and how different nations will deal with major developments in science and warfare. Megachange is essential reading for anyone who wants to know what the next four decades hold in store.

The purpose of this book is to bring together, for the first time, a description and examples of the main methods used in microsimulation modelling used in the field of income distribution analysis. It is structured to develop and use the different types of models used in the field, with a focus on household targeted policy. The book aims to provide a greater degree of codified knowledge by providing a practical guide to developing and using microsimulation models. At present, the training of researchers and analysts that use and develop microsimulation modelling is done on a relatively ad hoc basis through occasional training programmes and lecture series, built around lecture notes. Practical Microsimulation Modelling enables a more formalised and organised approach. Each chapter addresses a separate modelling approach in a similar consistent way, describing in a practical way the key methodological skills for each approach.

From two leaders of the FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) movement, comes a bold, contrarian guide to retiring at any age, with a reproducible formula to financial independence

A bull***t-free guide to growing your wealth, retiring early, and living life on your own terms.

Kristy Shen retired with a million dollars at the age of thirty-one, and she did it without hitting a home run on the stock market, starting the next Snapchat in her garage, or investing in hot real estate. Learn how to cut down on spending without decreasing your quality of life, build a million-dollar portfolio, fortify your investments to survive bear markets and black-swan events, and use the 4 percent rule and the Yield Shield–so you can quit the rat race forever.

Not everyone can become an entrepreneur or a real estate baron; the rest of us need Shen’s mathematically proven approach to retire decades before sixty-five.

“I wish I had known” is commonly heard after major economic disruptions.  Make Your Move shows you how to spot future changes well in advance so you have plenty of time to take advantage of them.  It’s packed with practical strategies and proven solutions that businesses of all sizes can immediately use to boost their bottom lines and strengthen their futures.
For over 27 years, authors Alan and Brian Beaulieu have specialized in forecasting future economic changes for businesses. Their accuracy rate of 96% has helped their clients increase their profits and build for the future — even in the most severe economic downturns.  

This is a guidebook about short term Operational Forecasting - the sort that is done to determine how much product you need to source or how many people you need to draft in to meet customer demand. It is organized under 5 headings: 1. The purpose of operational forecasting 2. Understanding demand 3. Forecasting methods 4. Understanding forecast performance 5. Managing forecast performance. The first two sections and part of section three are essential reading for anyone involved in or responsible for operational forecasting. The rest of the book is most helpful for practitioners. The aim is to produce something that provides a useful introduction to operational forecasting for both practitioners and their bosses by filling in the gap that lies between a naive common sense understanding of short term forecasting and the complex technicalities of mathematical forecasting techniques. The authors background as a self-taught business orientated forecasting nerd with limited mathematical expertise qualifies who tell it the way it is makes him well qualified to fill this gap. The book has been designed to be simple but not simplistic, using short and to the point learning points supported by clear graphics. It is technically sound but also highly practical. The hope is that it will help create a common language to help people talk intelligently about forecasting and help stop people doing dumb stuff - which is where most of the potential for improvement lies. It will also help people design good forecast processes and informed software purchasing decisions. In doing so it will help people realize that forecasting is important and that investing in people as well as software will generate enormous benefits for many businesses.

THE REALITY AND THE RHETORIC examines the gap between the external reporting of four Australian organisations and their internal management practices and systems necessary to support comprehensive and reliable disclosure. The book finds evidence of a significant rift between the external rhetoric of sustainability and the internal management processes and culture. However, the book also finds that the rhetoric can be effective in driving real change internally, as organisations seek to close the gap between the reality and rhetoric of sustainability reporting.

Applied Time Series Modelling and Forecasting provides a relatively non-technical introduction to applied time series econometrics and forecasting involving non-stationary data. The emphasis is very much on the why and how and, as much as possible, the authors confine technical material to boxes or point to the relevant sources for more detailed information.

This book is based on an earlier title Using Cointegration Analysis in Econometric Modelling by Richard Harris. As well as updating material covered in the earlier book, there are two major additions involving panel tests for unit roots and cointegration and forecasting of financial time series. Harris and Sollis have also incorporated as many of the latest techniques in the area as possible including: testing for periodic integration and cointegration; GLS detrending when testing for unit roots; structural breaks and season unit root testing; testing for cointegration with a structural break; asymmetric tests for cointegration; testing for super-exogeniety; seasonal cointegration in multivariate models; and approaches to structural macroeconomic modelling. In addition, the discussion of certain topics, such as testing for unique vectors, has been simplified.

Applied Time Series Modelling and Forecasting has been written for students taking courses in financial economics and forecasting, applied time series, and econometrics at advanced undergraduate and postgraduate levels. It will also be useful for practitioners who wish to understand the application of time series modelling e.g. financial brokers.

Data sets and econometric code for implementing some of the more recent procedures covered in the book can be found on the following web site www.wiley.co.uk/harris

Originally conceived as part of a unifying vision for Europe, the euro is now viewed as a millstone around the neck of a continent crippled by vast debts, sluggish economies, and growing populist dissent. In Europe's Orphan, leading economic commentator Martin Sandbu presents a compelling defense of the euro. He argues that rather than blaming the euro for the political and economic failures in Europe since the global financial crisis, the responsibility lies firmly on the authorities of the eurozone and its member countries. The eurozone's self-inflicted financial calamities and economic decline resulted from a toxic cocktail of unforced policy errors by bankers, politicians, and bureaucrats; the unhealthy coziness between finance and governments; and, above all, an extreme unwillingness to restructure debt. Sandbu traces the origins of monetary union back to the desire for greater European unity after the Second World War. But the euro's creation coincided with a credit bubble that governments chose not to rein in. Once the crisis hit, a battle of both ideas and interests led to the failure to aggressively restructure sovereign and bank debt. Ideologically informed choices set in motion dynamics that encouraged more economic mistakes and heightened political tensions within the eurozone. Sandbu concludes that the prevailing view that monetary union can only work with fiscal and political union is wrong and dangerous--and risks sending the continent into further political paralysis and economic stagnation. Contending that the euro has been wrongfully scapegoated for the eurozone's troubles, Europe's Orphan charts what actually must be done for the continent to achieve an economic and political recovery. This revised edition contains a new preface addressing the economic and political implications of Brexit, as well as updated text throughout. Europe's Orphan charts what actually must be done for the continent to achieve a full recovery.

Ever since the European currency crises of 1992-93, the Mexican crisis of 1994-95, and especially the Asian/global crisis of 1997-98, there has been heightened interest in early warning signals of financial crises. This pathbreaking study presents a comprehensive battery of empirical tests on the performance of alternative early warning indicators for emerging-market economies that should prove useful in the construction of a more effective global warning system.

Not only are the authors able to draw conclusions about which specific indicators have sent the most reliable early warning signals of currency and banking crises in emerging economies, they also test the out-of-sample performance of the model during the Asian crisis and find that it does a good job of identifying the most vulnerable economies. In addition, they show how the early warning system can be used to construct a "composite" crisis indicator to weigh the importance of alternative channels of cross-country "contagion" of crises and to generate information on the recovery path from crises.

This timely study comes on the eve of impending changes at the International Monetary Fund as that institution reexamines how it reacts to financial crises. Moreover, the study provides" ...a wealth of valuable elements for anyone investigating and forecasting adverse developments in emerging markets as well as industrial countries, " according to Ewoud Schuitemaker, Vice President of the Economics Department at ABN AMRO Bank, which is developing a Macroeconomic Risk System of its own to identify risks of macroeconomic downturn on a country basis for some 75 countries.

Why have the states of Europe agreed to create an Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and a single European currency? What will decide the fate of this bold project? This book explains why monetary integration has deepened in Europe from the Bretton Woods era to the present day. McNamara argues that the development of a neoliberal economic policy consensus among European leaders in the years after the first oil crisis was crucial to stability in the European Monetary System and progress towards EMU. She identifies two factors, rising capital mobility and changing ideas about the government's proper role in monetary policymaking, as critical to the neoliberal consensus but warns that unresolved social tensions in this consensus may provoke a political backlash against EMU and its neoliberal reforms.McNamara's findings are relevant not only to European monetary integration, but to more general questions about the effects of international capital flows on states. Although this book delineates a range of constraints created by economic interdependence, McNamara rejects the notion that international market forces simply dictate government policy choice. She demonstrates that the process of neoliberal policy change is a historically dependent one, shaped by policymakers' shared beliefs and interpretations of their experiences in the global economy.

Case studies of metropolitan cities in nine African countries – from Egypt in the north to three in West and Central Africa, two in East Africa and three in Southern Africa – make up the empirical foundation of this publication.

The interrelated themes addressed in these chapters – the national influence on urban development, the popular dynamics that shape urban development and the global currents on urban development – make up its framework. All authors and editors are African, as is the publisher. The only exception is Göran Therborn whose recent book, Cities of Power, served as motivation for this volume. Accordingly, the issue common to all case studies is the often conflictual powers that are exercised by national, global and popular forces in the development of these African cities.

Rather than locating the case studies in an exclusively African historical context, the focus is on the trajectories of the postcolonial city (with the important exception of Addis Ababa with a non-colonial history that has granted it a special place in African consciousness). These trajectories enable comparisons with those of postcolonial cities on other continents. This, in turn, highlights the fact that Africa – today, the least urbanised continent on an increasingly urbanised globe – is in the thick of processes of large-scale urban transformation, illustrated in diverse ways by the case studies that make up the foundation of this publication.

Economists have long sought to learn the effect of a "treatment" on some outcome of interest, just as doctors do with their patients. A central practical objective of research on treatment response is to provide decision makers with information useful in choosing treatments. Often the decision maker is a social planner who must choose treatments for a heterogeneous population--for example, a physician choosing medical treatments for diverse patients or a judge choosing sentences for convicted offenders. But research on treatment response rarely provides all the information that planners would like to have. How then should planners use the available evidence to choose treatments?

This book addresses key aspects of this broad question, exploring and partially resolving pervasive problems of identification and statistical inference that arise when studying treatment response and making treatment choices. Charles Manski addresses the treatment-choice problem directly using Abraham Wald's statistical decision theory, taking into account the ambiguity that arises from identification problems under weak but justifiable assumptions. The book unifies and further develops the influential line of research the author began in the late 1990s. It will be a valuable resource to researchers and upper-level graduate students in economics as well as other social sciences, statistics, epidemiology and related areas of public health, and operations research.

Strategic foresight is discipline that organizations adopt to gather, interpret, manage information about the future environment they plan to operate in. This book introduces the concept of strategic foresight and advocates a holistic and systemic foresight approach comprising five phases that are suitable for organizations in the public and private sectors. Using real-life cases as practical examples, the book demonstrates how organizations can apply a range of foresight methods and resources across the phases from intelligence to implementation. The book offers an opportunity to learn by all key stakeholders. It enhances the understanding of the National Research Organization's Foresight exercise (as the complex social phenomenon) in its context. The case study of the National Research Organisation provides lessons and insights that can improve both the theoretical and practical implementation of the Foresight Exercise. Dr Mlungisi Cele Acting Head: National Advisory Council on Innovation Department of Science and Technology, Republic of South Africa Foresight methodologies have been widely spreading among business and research organizations worldwide during the last decades. The weakest point of many forward-looking activities so far was the lack of their practical use. The books shows, on a number of cases, how a Foresight study, being wisely designed and implemented, can become a useful navigation tool for increasing competitiveness in the fast changing environment. Dr Alexander Sokolov Professor, HSE National Research University, Russia Director, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge / International Research and Educational Foresight Centre Very useful tool to describe how organizations assess the future and formulate strategic plans using a systemic foresight methodology Ibon Zugasti Managing Director in PROSPEKTIKER and Chair of the Millennium Project Node in Spain A comprehensive source of knowledge on complex issues of technology foresight process, from conception to commercialization of key technologies, made easy to understand and useful for aspiring futurists seeking to learn more about the matters at hand. Dr Surachai Sathitkunarat Executive Director, APEC Center for Technology Foresight (APEC CTF) Assistant to the President Office of National Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation Policy Council (NXPO) Thailand This book provides a very good coverage of the end-to-end methodology for technology-based innovation through the use of diverse and relevant business use cases. Very often, books on this theme only expound the approaches. Sarah goes beyond in sharing the pitfalls and challenges during the different stages of the systemic foresight methodology so that readers can learn and avoid the mistakes that other companies made. The emphasis on open innovation and intellectual property management is valuable as many organizations fail to deliver the vision due to insufficient attention on these two aspects. A must read if you wish to master strategic foresight. Dr Terence Hung Chief, Future Intelligence Technologies Rolls-Royce Singapore Pte Ltd Why do people want to know the future? People want to use budget efficiently or don't want to waste time? Aside from those who see the future, like fortune tellers, how do we make the future? Foresight is known as a method of creating the future in a way that many people has been using. So how is it different between Forecast and Foresight? This book will help answer that. Dr Kuniko Urashima Deputy Director of Foresight Center National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), Japan .

The first complete guide to mastering the forecasting techniques essential for short-term trading success While a majority of trading systems incorporate only existing or past pricing activity into their simulations, the most successful ones use forecasting methods to establish future activity. Now, Ed Gately, a leading computerized trading systems developer, creates a groundbreaking approach to forecasting that includes setting price and time targets to anticipate future price movements-an essential step in reducing risk, increasing reaction time, and yielding greater returns. With detailed coverage of such important targeting techniques as Fibonacci numbers, Fibonacci ratios, and cycle analysis, as well as support/resistance, moving average and Raff channels, Bollinger bands, and trendlines, Forecasting Profits Using Price & Time enables you to integrate today's most accurate computerized forecasting models into your current system. Once in place, these techniques can be combined to obtain confirmation, thereby strengthening reliability. These key concepts for maximizing profits over short periods of time include: Forecasting price movements of securities by using technical analysis. Setting risk objectives and establishing stop loss levels. Confirming change of trend with moving averages, candlesticks, and other methods of plotting price movement. Using Fibonacci, Gann's, Carolan's, and other number series to target future prices and establish timing of future changes in trend. Detailed charts and graphs, as well as helpful models that can be used to test individual systems before engaging in actual trades, make this an indispensable resource for learning how to forecast accurately-and successfully.

Africa is a continent with boundless potential — it has the natural resources, the population, and the landmass to become a major player on the global stage. Why then, is the gap between Africa and the rest of the world increasing?

While the continent has seen improvements in terms of key indicators of human wellbeing like infant mortality and life expectancy, Africa still suffers from massive poverty, weak economic growth, de-industrialisation, an underdeveloped agricultural sector and poor regional integration, among others. What needs to be done to unleash Africa’s potential and ignite a growth revolution?

In this book, Jakkie Cilliers examines where the continent is at and where it will be in 2040 if it continues on the current path.

'A brilliant new book' Daily Telegraph 'Well written . . . and often entertaining' The Times 'A sparkling analysis' Prospect When uncertainty is all around us, and the facts are not clear, how can we make good decisions? We do not know what the future will hold, particularly in the midst of a crisis, but we must make decisions anyway. We regularly crave certainties which cannot exist and invent knowledge we cannot have, forgetting that humans are successful because we have adapted to an environment that we understand only imperfectly. Throughout history we have developed a variety of ways of coping with the radical uncertainty that defines our lives. This incisive and eye-opening book draws on biography, history, mathematics, economics and philosophy to highlight the most successful - and most short-sighted - methods of dealing with an unknowable future. Ultimately, the authors argue, the prevalent method of our age falls short, giving us a false understanding of our power to make predictions, leading to many of the problems we experience today. Tightly argued, provocative and written with wit and flair, Radical Uncertainty is at once an exploration of the limits of numbers and a celebration of human instinct and wisdom.

To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology.

This publication provides updated statistics on a comprehensive set of economic, financial, social, and environmental measures as well as select indicators for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The report covers the 49 regional members of ADB. It discusses trends in development progress and the challenges to achieving inclusive and sustainable economic growth across Asia and the Pacific. This 53rd edition looks at how most economies in the region have bounced back to varying degrees from the COVID-19 pandemic. A gradual recovery of cyclical industries, the release of pent-up consumer demand, and increased confidence levels have contributed to developing Asia's economy. To put into practice the "leave no one behind" principle of the Sustainable Development Goals, detailed and informative data is crucial. The 2022 report features a special supplement, Mapping the Public Voice for Development-Natural Language Processing of Social Media Text Data, which explores how natural language processing techniques can be applied to social media text data to map public sentiment and inform development research and policy making.

Can anything prevent China surpassing the United States and becoming the world's superpower? While dozens of recent books and articles have predicted the near-certainty of China's rise to global supremacy, this book boldly counters such widely-held assumptions. Timothy Beardson brings to light the daunting array of challenges that today confront China, as well as the inadequacy of the policy responses. Threats to China come on many fronts, Beardson shows, and by their number and sheer weight these problems will thwart any ambition to become the world's "Number One power." Drawing on extensive research and experience living and working in Asia over the last 35 years, the author spells out China's situation: an inexorable demographic future of a shrinking labor force, relentless aging, extreme gender disparity, and even a falling population. Also, the nation faces social instability, a devastated environment, a predominantly low-tech economy with inadequate innovation, the absence of an effective welfare safety net, an ossified governance structure, and radical Islam lurking at the borders. Beardson's nuanced, first-hand look at China acknowledges its historic achievements while tempering predictions of its imminent hegemony with a no-nonsense dose of reality.