This Handbook is a comprehensive anthology of up-to-date chapters contributed by current researchers in budget forecasting. Editors Daniel Williams and Thad Calabrese had previously found substantial deficiencies in public budgeting forecast literature with current research failing to address such matters as practices related to forecasting expenditure factors, the consequences of forecast bias, or empirical examination of the effectiveness of many deterministic methods actually used by many governments. This volume comprehensively addresses the state of knowledge about budget forecasting for practitioners, academics, and students and serves as a comprehensive resource for instruction alongside serving as a reference book for those engaged in budget forecasting practice.

This book, and its companion volume in the Econometric Society Monographs series (ESM number 33), present a collection of papers by Clive W. J. Granger. His contributions to economics and econometrics, many of them seminal, span more than four decades and touch on all aspects of time series analysis. The papers assembled in this volume explore topics in spectral analysis, seasonality, nonlinearity, methodology, and forecasting. Those in the companion volume investigate themes in causality, integration and cointegration, and long memory. The two volumes contain the original articles as well as an introduction written by the editors.

"An ambitious, intelligent, and very readable guide to understanding our present and our future." —Harry Beckwith, Principal, Beckwith Advertising and Marketing and author of Selling the Invisible

No one can foretell the future. Or can they? There are many who purport to —and they are making a fortune. From meteorologists who give us our daily weather forecasts to investment advisers who project tomorrow's hottest stock, these and numerous other prognosticating professionals are part of a multibillion-dollar industry that's growing every day. No longer merely fortunetellers, they are fortune sellers, offering us a commodity we're more than eager to buy: the future.

In this piercing and provocative exposé, William Sherden, a seasoned consultant and expert on business forecasting, casts an unblinking eye on the booming business of predicting the future, from its major players to the ultimate validity and value of the information they proffer. Debunking false prophecy and analyzing assertions of forecasting skill, Sherden separates fact from fallacy to show us not only how best to use the forecasts we're given, but how to "select the nuggets of valuable future advice from amongst the $200 billion worth of mostly erroneous future predictions put forth each year."

The Fortune Sellers contains in-depth explorations of the seven most prevalent forecasting professions today —meteorology, economics, investments, technology assessment, demography, futurology, and organizational planning. As Sherden uncovers their historical roots and traces their track records, he deftly reveals just how accurate —or inaccurate —their predictions really are. Fascinating historical facts, scores of actual examples, and a wealth of eye-opening statistics illuminate the difference between reliable real-world information and spurious guesswork. In The Fortune Sellers, you'll discover how:

• Anyone who is counting on a weather forecast more than a day or two in advance might just as well flip a coin
• Economics earned its nickname —the "dismal science" —and why it sticks
• Profits from prediction work on Wall Street
• Academia, business, and the media feed our fascination with science fact and fiction and future technology
• Futurists —predictors of societal change —use the infirm foundations of social science to predict everything from utopia to techno-totalitarianism
• Prognosticators failed to predict many milestone events, including the stock market crash of 1929, the recession of the 1980s, and the fall of East Berlin.

An intriguing and utterly fascinating exploration of the methods and the madness of today's growing number of future "experts," The Fortune Sellers is not to be missed —and that's no speculation.

Electric Utility Resource Planning: Past, Present and Future covers the balance of renewable costs, energy storage, and flexible backstop mechanisms needed in electric utility resource planning. In addition, it covers the optimization of planning methodologies and market design. The book argues that net load, ramping and volatility concerns associated with renewables call into question the validity of almost a century of planning approaches. Finally, it suggests that accounting for flexibility helps optimize the efficiency of the entire fleet of assets, minimizing costs and CO2 generation simultaneously, concluding that a flexible, independent backstop mechanism is needed, regardless of renewables or storage. Case studies provide a mix of hypothetical "what if" scenarios and analyses of real-life utility portfolios drawn from international examples.

An award-winning journalist presents a tour-de-force analysis—drawing from history, economics, sociology, and popular culture—of the profound and transformative years of the early 2020s, both for individuals and for the global economy. We are living in a strange world—Salmon calls it “the New Not Normal.� The Phoenix Economy explores the ramifications of the pandemic years, many of which are surprisingly positive. In doing so, Salmon makes sense of one of the most disorienting and devastating events of our lifetimes. He examines the critical aspects of our lives that have been transformed in three parts: Time and Space, Mind and Body, and Business and Pleasure. Salmon’s keen observations, on everything from meme stocks to lobster rolls, are backed by a deep understanding of financial markets and the quirks of human behavior. His clear-eyed perspective on human and economic events, combined with his considerable analytical and observational skills, make The Phoenix Economy an insightful, fast-paced read. This book is essential for anyone wanting a better understanding of the near- and long-term effects of this new era and what they portend for our lives. It’s a penetrating insight into what happened—and, more important, what lies ahead.

She's been compared to a beacon shining through the fog. Her thorough research, meticulous analyses, and extraordinarily accurate forecasts have won her the respect and admiration of colleagues up and down the Street. A protégée of the master technical analyst Alan Shaw, she is currently Senior Technical Analyst, Vice President for Research at Salomon Smith Barney. But what some insiders remember most about Louise Yamada is that in 1994 she was among the very first to predict the greatest bull market of the twentieth century.

In Market Magic, Louise Yamada shares her formidable skills to look beyond the daily noise of trading and help guide your investments through the perils and uncertainties of the next ten years. At a time when classical forecasting techniques seem to be failing us and even the professionals are at a loss as to which way the markets will go, Yamada marshals her experience and talent to offer on-target analyses of today's macro forces and specific trend forecasts for the next decade.

Reading this book, you will understand why her weekly reports on various markets are so eagerly awaited by investors everywhere. Yamada describes what she saw in 1994 that led her to argue for an extended bull market. In addition, she describes her "two-tier market thesis" and explains why U.S. equities with global exposure have outperformed domestically focused stocks and why this trend should continue into the future.

Yamada reveals how macro changes in U.S. demographics have subtly altered the business and investment landscapes, and how these demographic shifts are impacting the stock market in ways that have been largely unnoticed. Her case for an extension of this bull market into the next century is must reading for all serious (and nervous) investors. Firm in her belief that new technology will continue to drive the economy, Yamada identifies the industries and business sectors she believes will thrive under its expanding influence.

Market Magic offers a fresh perspective on the new and emerging realities. Forging links between the forces that will be at work in the future, Louise Yamada reveals a thought-provoking scenario for the market's next ten years, and details how investors can track its course through technical analysis. Market Magic is an enlightening analysis of the big picture from one of the best minds in the investment community.

"Few on Wall Street can match Louise Yamada for analytical ability as well as insight on the big issues affecting investors. We are fortunate she is willing to share the results of her thoughts and research with us." —Mark Haines, CNBC.

"Louise Yamada has a special talent for anticipating future financial trends. Market Magic is a must read for investors as we prepare for the exciting decade ahead." —David Cork, F.C.S.I. author of The Pig and the Python: How to Prosper from the Aging Baby Boom.

"Market Magic demystifies the voodoo of technical analysis and relates technical indicators to the real world of stocks and bonds and demographic and economic trends worldwide." —Oscar S. Schafer, General Partner Cumberland Associates; Member, Barron's Roundtable.

In these three essays, Professor Granger explains the process of constructing and evaluating an empirical model. Drawing on a wide range of cases and vignettes from economics, finance, politics and environment economics, as well as from art, literature, and the entertainment industry, Professor Granger combines rigor with intuition to provide a unique and entertaining insight into one of the most important subjects in modern economics. Chapter 1 deals with Specification. Chapter 2 considers Evaluation, and argues that insufficent evaluation is undertaken by economists, and that models should be evaluated in terms of the quality of their output. In Chapter 3, the question of how to evaluate forecasts is considered at several levels of increasing depth.

In these three essays, Professor Granger explains the process of constructing and evaluating an empirical model. Drawing on a wide range of cases and vignettes from economics, finance, politics and environment economics, as well as from art, literature, and the entertainment industry, Professor Granger combines rigour with intuition to provide a unique and entertaining insight into one of the most important subjects in modern economics. Chapter 1 deals with Specification. The process of specifying a model is discussed using deforestation in the Amazon region of Brazil as an illustration. Chapter 2 considers Evaluation, and argues that insufficent evaluation is undertaken by economists, and that models should be evaluated in terms of the quality of their output. In Chapter 3, the question of how to evaluate forecasts is considered at several levels of increasing depth and using a more sophisticated, technical approach than in the earlier two chapters.

This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.

Today’ s financial markets are characterised by a large number of participants, with different appetites for risk, different time horizons, different motivations and reactions to unexpected news. The mathematical techniques and models used in the forecasting of financial markets have therefore grown ever more sophisticated as traders, analysts and investors seek to gain an edge on their competitors. Written by leading international researchers and practitioners, this book focuses on three major themes of today’ s state of the art financial research: modelling with high frequency data, the information content of volatility markets, and applications of neural networks and genetic algorithms to financial time series. Forecasting Financial Markets includes empirical applications to present the very latest thinking on these complex techniques, including:

• High frequency exchange rates

• Intraday volatility

• Autocorrelation and variance ratio tests

• Conditional volatility

• GARCH processes

• Chaotic systems

• Nonlinearity

• Stochastic and EXPAR models

• Artificial neural networks

• Genetic algorithms

"The key to investment success, if there be just one, is the ability to remain emotionally detached. That detachment is only achieved through confidence. That confidence is only arrived at through knowledge. That knowledge is arrived at through thought, study, hard work, and experience. In this book, I will try to impart the knowledge and experience I have acquired over the last thirty years." — Richard Arms from the Introduction to Trading Without Fear

Richard Arms' revolutionary theories have changed the way investors perceive the market. His expertise in the field of technical analysis has had significant impact, evidenced by the fact that his Equivolume charting system is now part of the most popular stock and futures software, and his Arms Index—also known as the Short-Term Trading Index or TRIN—has become one of the most important technical tools of Wall Street.

In Trading Without Fear, Richard Arms shows investors how to make sound investment decisions "without succumbing to those two very powerful emotions": fear and greed. Learning to control those emotions in ourselves—while recognizing them in others—empowers us to capitalize on that knowledge. The result is informed investment choices, tempered by caution, and fueled by confidence and a strong desire to succeed.

Arms' cogent examination of leading strategies will enable the average investor to master successfully what is widely regarded as one of the most reliable methods of long-term market forecasting: volume analysis. Volume analysis is rooted in a seminal Arms theory—that volume plays as significant a role in understanding the markets as price movement. And volume is affected by the emotions at work in the marketplace. "The market is very complex. It is pushed one way or the other in varying degrees as a result of individual decisions of millions of participants. Some of those partici-pants are acting logically and others are acting emotionally...it is the volume which is giving us the real picture of the emotions in the marketplace. Price tells us what is happening, but volume tells us how it is happening."

Trading Without Fear offers investors a trading discipline with in-depth coverage of:

• Technical vs. fundamental analysis
• Equivolume charting and the importance of the "Power Box"
• Ease of Movement and Volume Adjusted Moving Averages with new information not available anywhere else
• Market tides—VAMA and cycles
• The mechanics of buying
• Selling short—how and when to do it
• Closing out short positions

With his succinct analytical skills and unique approach, Richard Arms makes sophisticated investment strategies accessible to everyday, individual investors.

Trading Without Fear

"Mr. Arms elegantly combines many different aspects of volume analysis in this book. Volume is related to stock market breadth via the Arms Index, and to price via Equivolume charting. Volume Weighted Moving Averages and the Ease of Movement Indicator complete the picture. If you are interested in how to quantify the driving force of the market, this book is for you." — John Bollinger, CFA, CMT President, Bollinger Capital Management Editor, The Capital Growth Letter

"Analysts and traders will acquire confidence and control fear through carefully studying and applying the unique insights available in Trading Without Fear. This book sums up much of the inventive genius of Richard Arms, the 1995 winner of the coveted Market Technicians Award. The famed Arms Index and other unique indicators including Equivolume, Ease of Movement and Volume Cyclicacity are presented in clear terms and in a logical progression filled with penetrating insights into how to profit in the market." — Henry O. Pruden, PhD Professor, Golden Gate University Executive Director, Institute for Technical Market Analysts

Handbook of the Economics of Marketing, Volume One: Marketing and Economics mixes empirical work in industrial organization with quantitative marketing tools, presenting tactics that help researchers tackle problems with a balance of intuition and skepticism. It offers critical perspectives on theoretical work within economics, delivering a comprehensive, critical, up-to-date, and accessible review of the field that has always been missing. This literature summary of research at the intersection of economics and marketing is written by, and for, economists, and the book's authors share a belief in analytical and integrated approaches to marketing, emphasizing data-driven, result-oriented, pragmatic strategies.

Why the global recession is in danger of becoming another Great Depression, and how we can stop it

When the United States stopped backing dollars with gold in 1968, the nature of money changed. All previous constraints on money and credit creation were removed and a new economic paradigm took shape. Economic growth ceased to be driven by capital accumulation and investment as it had been since before the Industrial Revolution. Instead, credit creation and consumption began to drive the economic dynamic. In "The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy," Richard Duncan introduces an analytical framework, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that explains all aspects of the calamity now unfolding: its causes, the rationale for the government's policy response to the crisis, what is likely to happen next, and how those developments will affect asset prices and investment portfolios.

In his previous book, "The Dollar Crisis" (2003), Duncan explained why a severe global economic crisis was inevitable given the flaws in the post-Bretton Woods international monetary system, and now he's back to explain what's next. The economic system that emerged following the abandonment of sound money requires credit growth to survive. Yet the private sector can bear no additional debt and the government's creditworthiness is deteriorating rapidly. Should total credit begin to contract significantly, this New Depression will become a New Great Depression, with disastrous economic and geopolitical consequences. That outcome is not inevitable, and this book describes what must be done to prevent it.Presents a fascinating look inside the financial crisis and how the New Depression is poised to become a New Great DepressionIntroduces a new theoretical construct, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that is the key to understanding not only the developments that led to the crisis, but also to understanding how events will play out in the years aheadOffers unique insights from the man who predicted the global economic breakdown

Alarming but essential reading, "The New Depression" explains why the global economy is teetering on the brink of falling into a deep and protracted depression, and how we can restore stability.

Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalize existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.

The first of the UN Millennium Goals was to reduce extreme poverty and in 2014 it was halved compared to 1990, and now the goal is to eradicate poverty and hunger by 2030. The reduction in poverty is, to a high degree, the consequence of the rapid economic development in a few countries, especially China, but in many countries around the globe poverty is still at a high level and is influencing societies' overall development. It is against this background that this Handbook provides an up-to-date analysis and overview of the topic from a large variety of theoretical and methodological angles. Organised into four parts, the Handbook provides knowledge on what poverty is, how it has developed, and what type of policies might be able to succeed in reducing poverty. Part I investigates conceptual issues and relates concepts to people's relative position in society and the understanding of justice. Part II shows how poverty has developed. It combines existing empirical knowledge with regional/national understandings of the issue of poverty. Part III analyses policies and interventions with the aim of reducing or alleviating poverty within a national as well as global context. It includes a variety of countries and examples. Finally, Part IV tells us what can be done about poverty; what instruments are available to end poverty as we know it today. This volume will be an invaluable reference book for students and scholars throughout the social sciences, particularly in sociology, social policy, public policy, development studies, international relations and politics.

This book provides an introduction to the methods employed in forecasting the future state of the economy. It provides a comprehensive coverage of methods and applications in this fast-growing area and is intended for use in postgraduate and upper-level undergraduate courses. Part I outlines the available techniques, particularly those used in business forecasting and econometric forecasting. The state of the art in time series modelling is reviewed and includes a discussion of Box-Jenkins models, the vector autogressive approach and cointegration. Ways of combining forecasts are also examined in detail. Part II considers the most important applications of forecasting. Applications in microeconomics include demand and sales forecasting, the use of anticipations data, leading indicators and scenario analysis. In macroeconomics the emphasis is on why errors occur in forecasting asset market prices, including implications of the efficient markets hypothesis for foreign markets, stock market prices and commodity market prices. The book ends with a discussion of the appropriateness of various techniques, recent developments in forecasting, and the links between economic forecasting and government policy.

The US Gulf of Mexico is one of the largest and most prolific offshore hydrocarbon basins in the world with thousands of structures installed in the region and tens of thousands of wells drilled. Over the past decade, a significant number of structures in shallow water have been decommissioned, as operators can no longer "kick the decommissioning can" down the road. This has opened up new markets and additional regulatory oversight with far-reaching implications. This book describes future decommissioning trends and issues and provides guidance for operator budgeting, regulatory oversight, and service sector companies interested in participating in the field. Decommissioning Forecasting and Operating Cost Estimation is the first of its kind textbook to develop models to forecast platform decommissioning in the Gulf of Mexico and to better understand the dynamics of offshore production cost. The book bridges the gap between modeling and technical knowledge to provide insight into the sector. Topics are presented in five parts covering fundamentals, structure inventories and well trends, decommissioning modeling, critical infrastructure issues, and operating cost estimation. Factor models and activity-based cost models in operating cost estimation conclude the discussion. Decommissioning Forecasting and Operating Cost Estimation helps oil and gas professionals navigate through this complex and challenging field providing an invaluable resource for academics, researchers, and professionals. The book will also serve government regulators, energy and environmental engineers, offshore managers, financial analyst, and others interested in this fascinating and dynamic industry.

A Fast and Frugal Finance: Bridging Contemporary Behavioural Finance and Ecological Rationality adds psychological reality to classical financial reasoning. It shows how financial professionals can reach better and quicker decisions using the 'fast and frugal' framework for decision-making, adding dramatically to time and outcome efficiency, while also retaining accuracy. The book provides the reader with an adaptive toolbox of heuristic tools and classification systems to aid real-world decisions. Throughout, financial applications are presented alongside real-world examples to help readers solve established problems in finance, including stock buying and selling decisions, when faced with not only risk but fundamental uncertainty. The book concludes by describing potential solutions to financial problems in the forefront of contemporary debates, and calls for taking psychological insights seriously.

Belief and Rule Compliance: An Experimental Comparison of Muslim and Non-Muslim Economic Behavior uses modern behavioral science and game theory to examine the behavior and compliance of Muslim populations to Islamic Finance laws and norms. The work identifies behaviors characterized by unexpected complexity and profound divergence, including expectations for sharing, cooperation and entrepreneurship gleaned from studies. Adopting a unique set of recent empirical observations, the work provides a reliable behavioral foundation for practitioners seeking to evaluate, create and market Islamic financial products.

Changing the Indian Economy: Renewal, Reform and Revival explores the fact that post-Modi India is witnessing unprecedented socioeconomic change, truly labeled as Modi's Mantra and his attempts to morph the Indian economic landscape. India is using an intelligent economic process for its renewal and growth, however, in a recent study by Nomura, 2016, The Japanese Financial Services firm, it is reported that there is downside risk to India's baseline forecast of 7.8 per cent GDP growth in 2016. Although the report suggests that there was a mid-cycle consolidation in mid-2014, the recovery seems to be losing momentum. This book offers a novel, but inclusive outlook to the entire post-Modi economic overhaul.

Whether it's an unforeseen financial crash, a shock election result or a washout summer that threatens to ruin a holiday in the sun, forecasts are part and parcel of our everyday lives. We rely wholeheartedly on them, and become outraged when things don't go exactly to plan. But should we really put so much trust in predictions? Perhaps gut instincts can trump years of methodically compiled expert knowledge? And when exactly is a forecast not a forecast? Forewarned will answer all of these intriguing questions, and many more. Packed with fun anecdotes and startling facts, Forewarned is a myth-busting guide to prediction, based on the very latest scientific research. It lays out the many ways forecasting can help us make better decisions in an unpredictable modern world, and reveals when forecasts can be a reliable guide to the uncertainties of the future - and when they are best ignored.

Fiscal Therapy shows how to make America's economy stronger and fairer by meeting long-term budget challenges while also addressing its short-term need for more investment and better social policy. America is facing a double-edged sword of budget challenges. In the coming decades, rising public debt will hurt our economy, threaten our global leadership, and reduce the living standards of our people. It will require tax increases and spending cuts to bring about a sustainable outcome. At the same time, however, America has pressing needs - from improving our schools and making child care more available to rebuilding our infrastructure and investing more in scientific research - all of which require upfront investments right now. In Fiscal Therapy, William Gale diagnoses these two set of challenges and explains why we must address them simultaneously. Fiscal Therapy shows that we can address our long-term budget challenges in ways that also help us meet our short-term needs, and we can do so without radically transforming our current institutions and existing programs. Gale draws lessons from the nation's history; takes guidance from the experiences of other advanced nations; reconciles the twin demands of economic growth and social fairness; and addresses the obstacles that America's poisonous politics and fickle public opinion present. Fiscal Therapy provides a clear, comprehensive, and optimistic approach around which liberals and conservatives can rally. One that will leave the United States a stronger, more prosperous, and fairer nation.