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Books > Business & Economics > Economics > Economic forecasting
This book focuses on the competitive situation and policy outlook
of China's provincial economy in the 13th five-year period. It
begins with a general evaluation report on the country's provincial
comprehensive Economic Competitiveness, followed by analyses at the
international, national and regional levels, industrial and
enterprise levels. On the basis of domestic and international
research findings, it further enriches our understanding of
provincial competitiveness, analyzes the domestic and international
situation, explores new changes, new norms, new situations and new
challenges concerning China's provincial economy in the past few
years, reveals the characteristics and relative differences of
different types, defines their internal competitive strengths and
weaknesses, and provides valuable theoretical content to guide
decision-making.
Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the
future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty.
It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are
characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence
exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk.
The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form
expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face.
This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic
reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic
actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form
fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the
confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic
sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present
theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate
how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic
forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological
futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become
instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of
shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent
imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative
economics.
This volume focuses on the analysis and measurement of business
cycles in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS).
Divided into five parts, it begins with an overview of the main
concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting
business cycles. Then it highlights the role of BRICS in the global
economy and explores the interrelatedness of business cycles within
BRICS. In turn, part two provides studies on the historical
development of business cycles in the individual BRICS countries
and describes the driving forces behind those cycles. Parts three
and four present national business tendency surveys and composite
cyclical indices for real-time monitoring and forecasting of
various BRICS economies, while the final part discusses how the
lessons learned in the BRICS countries can be used for the analysis
of business cycles and their socio-political consequences in other
emerging countries.
Developing Asia is forecast to expand by 5.9% in 2017 and 5.8% in
2018, a slight upgrade from projections in Asian Development
Outlook 2017. Growth prospects for developing Asia are looking up,
bolstered by a revival in world trade and strong momentum in the
People's Republic of China. Rebounds in international food and fuel
prices are gentler than expected, helping to contain consumer price
pressures. Inflation is likely to dip to 2.4% in 2017, or 0.1
percentage points off the 2016 rate, and pick up to 2.9% in 2018.
Risks to the outlook have become more balanced, as the advanced
economies have so far avoided sharp, unexpected changes to their
macroeconomic policies. Further, the fuel price rise is providing
fiscal relief to oil exporters but is measured enough not to
destabilize oil importers.
The annual Asian Development Outlook analyzes economic performance
in the past year and offers forecasts for the next 2 years for the
45 economies in Asia and the Pacific that make up developing Asia.
Decades of rapid growth transformed developing Asia from a
low-income region to middle income. Sustaining growth to power the
transition to high income will depend on much greater improvement
in productivity. Innovation, human capital, and infrastructure are
the three pillars of productivity growth. Supportive institutions
and policies, underpinned by macroeconomic stability, can
strengthen all three pillars. Asia's dynamic track record suggests
that attaining high income status, while challenging, is
achievable.
This report is a partial result of the China's Quarterly
Macroeconometric Model (CQMM), a project developed and maintained
by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen
University. The CMR is one of the Key Research Institutes of
Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Ministry of
Education of China, focusing on China's economic forecast and
macroeconomic policy analysis. The CMR started to develop the CQMM
for purpose of short-term forecasting, policy analysis, and
simulation in 2005. Based on the CQMM, the CMR and its partners
hold press conferences to release forecasts for China' major
macroeconomic variables. Since July, 2006, twenty-two quarterly
reports on China's macroeconomic outlook have been presented and
eleventh annual reports have been published. This 23rd quarterly
report is to be presented at the Forum on China's Macroeconomic
Outlook and Press Conference of CQMM on October 27, 2017. This
conference is jointly held at Oxford University by Oxford Prospects
and Global Development Centre, University of Oxford, Center for
Macroeconomic Research at Xiamen University, and Economic
Information Daily at Xinhua News Agency.
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