UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade." -The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.

The Tyranny Of Growth is a modern epic that exposes the lie of economic growth.

It provocatively recounts how the 2008 global financial meltdown and COVID-19 pandemic have become the leading cause of governments' and multilateral institutions' global spectacular failure. It brilliantly explains how a single number - GDP - came to have such bewildering power over our lives, despite its ruinous consequences.

But ultimately the book strives to illuminate a new way of imagining the world. 

This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new developments and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, either in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, or the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, and methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas, as well as their developments informing the mainstream. In the early 21st century, climate change and the forecasting of health expenditures and population are topics of pressing importance.

This lively and provocative look at the tension between economics and politics examines why so many mistakes in economic policy-making are made for political reasons and ignore the economic truths. Using short-term economic gains to ensure electoral success, argues Lorenzo Forni, inevitably spells macroeconomic disaster. Using the state budget, trade policy and monetary policy to prop up labour markets and the wider economy in order to boost voter approval ratings, while ignoring budget constraints can only result in longer recessions and economic downturns. Which then can incur the painful austerity measures needed to bring the economy back into balance. Forni looks at many unsustainable economic policies that have been implemented in parts of the world when the economic realities - there is no magic money tree! - would recommend a different and more prudent economic course.

"Scenarios are now a part of every successful manager’s toolkit. This book is the first comprehensive guide to the latest developments in scenario thinking written by today’s leading practitioners in the field." —Napier Collyns, a pioneer of scenario planning at Dutch/Shell now Managing Director, Gloal Business Network (GBN) "In twenty years of helping companies create and plan for their futures, I have never come across a book that dealt with the use of scenario-based planning as comprehensively as this one." —David Kelley CEO, IDEO Product Development the creators of the Apple Mouse "This book is the greatest reference today on scenario planning—the preeminent tool for those who believe that the future belongs to those with the imagination to create it. The combination of scenario planning and strategy formulation can be a wondrous right brain process that galvanizes teams with a compelling vision and common purpose." —David E. Schnedler Director, Corporate Planning Sun Microsystems, Inc. "Organizations must create intellectual and organizational tension around distinctly different views of the future. Learning from the Future demonstrates why scenarios are ideally suited to generate such tension and how to use scenario learning as a steppingstone to superior strategies." —Richard Pascale, Associate Fellow of Oxford University and author of Managing on the Edge: How the Smartest Companies Use Conflict to Stay Ahead "An invaluable guide to the mind-stretching benefits of scenarios that are fully embedded in the strategic thinking process. It should be required reading for any management team embarking on scenario development so they can realize the benefits and evade the pitfalls." —George Day, Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor and Director of the Huntsman Center for Global Competition and Innovation Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

In Executive Salaries In South Africa: Who Should Have a Say on Pay?, the 2012 executive pay packages of 50 of South Africa’s largest and most influential listed companies are examined.

A 2006 study by Crotty and Bonorchis revealed that, on average, the CEOs got paid more than R15 million a year – more than 700 times the minimum wage in certain industries. The authors predicted that without government intervention, executive packages would continue to sky-rocket. Unfortunately these predictions have come true, despite employment equity measures and changes to corporate governance requirements in King III. The average cash and benefits package of the 50 CEOs studied in 2012 came to almost R13.1 million and once the gains on the vesting and exercise of share options is included, this average rises steeply to almost R49 million.

South Africa’s widening income inequality and its history of racism, poverty and social unrest demand that something more be done to reverse this trend. But what will it take for companies to rein in excessive executive salaries? In Executive Salaries In South Africa we consider these questions:

• How do you strengthen the shareholder’s say on pay to ensure that the board of directors responsible for setting pay take into account multiple stakeholder interests?
• Should the courts, the Department of Labour, employees, the tax man or the remaining 99% of society have a say on what the 1% are being paid?
• How do you modify corporate governance standards, the tax code and labour legislation to achieve these goals?
• How do we turn shareholders into activists and empower the workforce?
• Is change only possible if a more fundamental shift in attitudes is achieved?

This book addresses these pressing issues and considers possible mechanisms to rein in excessive executive pay. Without these interventions, South Africa will continue on a path of instability and unrest, while the rich get richer and the poor become poorer.

This is a book is for leaders, to aid their practice in strategy, decision making and change - it's a very practical (field) guide to foresight and foresight tools. It's aimed at leaders in manufacturing, service, non-profit, government and fourth sector organisations. Strategic Foresight is a set of skills and tools used to explore potential futures exercising your 'futures muscles' so that you are able to plan for and take advantage of these possible futures. The book first explores how we think about the future, looking at ambiguity and uncertainty and how these play a role in our ability to think into the future. It introduces a simple model of preferred thinking styles and talks about the 'baggage' and values that form our perceptions. The next section covers models, tools and maps that people will find useful for developing their own Foresight and using this knowledge to make decisions, whilst uncovering innovation and creativity to turn this Foresight knowledge to competitive advantage. This is not a comprehensive list - just a selection of the most effective tools with their use and case studies that are easy and effective to use. The next two sections cover: How to identify emerging trends; what impact they may have on your business; the strategic importance of early recognition; and how to apply the knowledge in your business. Harnessing Foresight as a spring board for innovation and creativity to develop new paradigms and take advantage of what may come. Finally, the author pulls it all together by showing how to develop a practical method of exploring potential futures in the context of your existing business in order to take robust decisions and develop strategies that help you work towards your preferred future. Case studies are interspersed throughout the book to illustrate the points made along with exercises, where appropriate, to encourage people to 'think along' with the ideas and new ways of approaching Strategic Foresight.

Summarizes the latest developments and techniques in the field and highlights areas such as sample surveys, nonparametric analysis, hypothesis testing, time series analysis, Bayesian inference, and distribution theory for current applications in statistics, economics, medicine, biology, engineering, sociology, psychology, and information technology. Containing more than 800 contemporary references to facilitate further study, the Handbook of Applied Econometrics and Statistical Inference is an in-depth guide for applied statisticians, econometricians, economists, sociologists, psychologists, data analysts, biometricians, medical researchers, and upper-level undergraduate and graduate-level students in these disciplines.

Empty shelves, petrol station queues and energy shortages: crises more familiar to those who lived through the 1960s and 1970s have now become a reality for many as global shipping times are squeezed, containers lie unopened at docks and supply shortages push up inflation, increasing the cost of consumer goods from milk to cars to building materials. In Sold Out, James Rickards explains why the shelves are empty, who broke the supply chain and why shortages will persist.

He breaks down the history and structure of business around the world to offer readers a behind-the-scenes look at what's really going on, and what they can do to mitigate the worst of what's to come.

Drawing on his financial expertise, he explains that consumers and investors need to be nimble to come through this unprecedented turn of events in good shape. Luckily, Rickards is on hand to provide the tools readers need to look ahead, monitor key trends and insulate against risks.

A Washington Post Bestseller Winner of the 2017 Axiom Business Book Award in Business Technology Amy Webb is a noted futurist who combines curiosity, skepticism, colorful storytelling, and deeply reported, real-world analysis in this essential book for understanding the future. The Signals Are Talking reveals a systemic way of evaluating new ideas bubbling up on the horizon-distinguishing what is a real trend from the merely trendy. This book helps us hear which signals are talking sense, and which are simply nonsense, so that we might know today what developments-especially those seemingly random ideas at the fringe as they converge and begin to move toward the mainstream-that have long-term consequence for tomorrow. With the methodology developed in The Signals Are Talking, we learn how to think like a futurist and answer vitally important questions: How will a technology-like artificial intelligence, machine learning, self-driving cars, biohacking, bots, and the Internet of Things-affect us personally? How will it impact our businesses and workplaces? How will it eventually change the way we live, work, play, and think-and how should we prepare for it now? Most importantly, Webb persuasively shows that the future isn't something that happens to us passively. Instead, she allows us to see ahead so that we may forecast what's to come-challenging us to create our own preferred futures.

Originally published in 1972 this book examines technological forecasting and assesses its merits and limitations and possible uses for society, government, industry and the military. Although technological forecasting was in its infancy when this book was originally published, it has now become part of mainstream social and economic planning.

This Handbook is a comprehensive anthology of up-to-date chapters contributed by current researchers in budget forecasting. Editors Daniel Williams and Thad Calabrese had previously found substantial deficiencies in public budgeting forecast literature with current research failing to address such matters as practices related to forecasting expenditure factors, the consequences of forecast bias, or empirical examination of the effectiveness of many deterministic methods actually used by many governments. This volume comprehensively addresses the state of knowledge about budget forecasting for practitioners, academics, and students and serves as a comprehensive resource for instruction alongside serving as a reference book for those engaged in budget forecasting practice.

The future is an uncertain, uncomfortable prospect for employees, employers and society at large. A flurry of unprecedented events have proven that, despite what some politicians and economists may tell us, the future is not set in stone. Instead, it is constantly being shaped and redefined by the everyday decisions of individuals and organizations.

In light of this uncertainty, The Future Starts Now looks toward the various innovations and technologies that may shape our future. Authors Theo Priestley and Bronwyn Williams have brought together the world's leading futurists to articulate and clarify the current trajectories in technology, economics, politics and business.

This is a comprehensive history of tomorrow, exploring groundbreaking topics such as AI, privacy, education and the future of work. While the guidance, insight and predictions are fascinating for anyone curious about what the future may hold, the book also functions as an invaluable guide for business professionals looking to steer their career or their organization with foresight and confidence.

Alexa is Stealing Your Job is a guided tour of where the world has been with artificial intelligence and how it affects the future of work. Artificial intelligence is taking over. Ask Alexa to call a client or confirm your schedule for the day and she does just that immediately. Ask her a question, give her a command, or just share a joke together, and she becomes your new best employee. A conversation with Alexa can nix the need for millions of front-line workers. Today's companies must keep up with artificial intelligence to keep their customers, and today's employees must find new ways to provide value to their companies if they want to keep their job. Author and speaker Rhonda Scharf shows readers how a willingness to adapt to the new normal keeps both businesses and their employees relevant in these changing times. Alexa Is Stealing Your Job reveals what the future entails by diving into the world of AI and exploring how it impacts lives, careers, and the future.

'A well-researched and thought-provoking book' Telegraph '2020: World of War is an informed piece of strategic speculation and analysis. Its official distribution should start at Number 10 Downing Street, with the book being quickly shared within the UK's national security apparatus, and perhaps usefully in Washington and European capitals, too.' Mungo Melvin, The RUSI Journal 'A timely and cogent reminder that history never ends and is about to be made' - Tim Marshall, author of Prisoners of Geography 'This informed and expert book examines credible scenarios of what might happen, could happen and hopefully won't happen' - Lord George Robertson, former NATO Secretary General '2020: World of War should be read by our political leaders, policy makers and horizon scanners alike' - General Sir Richard Shirreff 'This expert consideration of potential conflicts will be invaluable to us all - not just the policy makers and politicians who will have to deal with those issues' - Jonathan Powell, former Chief of Staff, 10 Downing Street 'Knowing the unknown is the first step in making sure what we fear most doesn't happen' - Jonathan Powell, former Chief of Staff, 10 Downing Street With the world already struggling to contain conflicts on several continents, with security and defence expenditure under huge pressure, it's time to think the unthinkable and explore what might happen. As former soldiers now working in defence strategy and conflict resolution, Paul Cornish and Kingsley Donaldson are perfectly qualified to guide us through a credible and utterly convincing 20/20 vision of the year 2020, from cyber security to weapons technology, from geopolitics to undercover operations. This book is of global importance, offering both analysis and creative solutions - essential reading both for decision-makers and everyone who simply wants to understand our future.

Why the global recession is in danger of becoming another Great Depression, and how we can stop it

When the United States stopped backing dollars with gold in 1968, the nature of money changed. All previous constraints on money and credit creation were removed and a new economic paradigm took shape. Economic growth ceased to be driven by capital accumulation and investment as it had been since before the Industrial Revolution. Instead, credit creation and consumption began to drive the economic dynamic. In "The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy," Richard Duncan introduces an analytical framework, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that explains all aspects of the calamity now unfolding: its causes, the rationale for the government's policy response to the crisis, what is likely to happen next, and how those developments will affect asset prices and investment portfolios.

In his previous book, "The Dollar Crisis" (2003), Duncan explained why a severe global economic crisis was inevitable given the flaws in the post-Bretton Woods international monetary system, and now he's back to explain what's next. The economic system that emerged following the abandonment of sound money requires credit growth to survive. Yet the private sector can bear no additional debt and the government's creditworthiness is deteriorating rapidly. Should total credit begin to contract significantly, this New Depression will become a New Great Depression, with disastrous economic and geopolitical consequences. That outcome is not inevitable, and this book describes what must be done to prevent it.Presents a fascinating look inside the financial crisis and how the New Depression is poised to become a New Great DepressionIntroduces a new theoretical construct, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that is the key to understanding not only the developments that led to the crisis, but also to understanding how events will play out in the years aheadOffers unique insights from the man who predicted the global economic breakdown

Alarming but essential reading, "The New Depression" explains why the global economy is teetering on the brink of falling into a deep and protracted depression, and how we can restore stability.

Strategic foresight is discipline that organizations adopt to gather, interpret, manage information about the future environment they plan to operate in. This book introduces the concept of strategic foresight and advocates a holistic and systemic foresight approach comprising five phases that are suitable for organizations in the public and private sectors. Using real-life cases as practical examples, the book demonstrates how organizations can apply a range of foresight methods and resources across the phases from intelligence to implementation. The book offers an opportunity to learn by all key stakeholders. It enhances the understanding of the National Research Organization's Foresight exercise (as the complex social phenomenon) in its context. The case study of the National Research Organisation provides lessons and insights that can improve both the theoretical and practical implementation of the Foresight Exercise. Dr Mlungisi Cele Acting Head: National Advisory Council on Innovation Department of Science and Technology, Republic of South Africa Foresight methodologies have been widely spreading among business and research organizations worldwide during the last decades. The weakest point of many forward-looking activities so far was the lack of their practical use. The books shows, on a number of cases, how a Foresight study, being wisely designed and implemented, can become a useful navigation tool for increasing competitiveness in the fast changing environment. Dr Alexander Sokolov Professor, HSE National Research University, Russia Director, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge / International Research and Educational Foresight Centre Very useful tool to describe how organizations assess the future and formulate strategic plans using a systemic foresight methodology Ibon Zugasti Managing Director in PROSPEKTIKER and Chair of the Millennium Project Node in Spain A comprehensive source of knowledge on complex issues of technology foresight process, from conception to commercialization of key technologies, made easy to understand and useful for aspiring futurists seeking to learn more about the matters at hand. Dr Surachai Sathitkunarat Executive Director, APEC Center for Technology Foresight (APEC CTF) Assistant to the President Office of National Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation Policy Council (NXPO) Thailand This book provides a very good coverage of the end-to-end methodology for technology-based innovation through the use of diverse and relevant business use cases. Very often, books on this theme only expound the approaches. Sarah goes beyond in sharing the pitfalls and challenges during the different stages of the systemic foresight methodology so that readers can learn and avoid the mistakes that other companies made. The emphasis on open innovation and intellectual property management is valuable as many organizations fail to deliver the vision due to insufficient attention on these two aspects. A must read if you wish to master strategic foresight. Dr Terence Hung Chief, Future Intelligence Technologies Rolls-Royce Singapore Pte Ltd Why do people want to know the future? People want to use budget efficiently or don't want to waste time? Aside from those who see the future, like fortune tellers, how do we make the future? Foresight is known as a method of creating the future in a way that many people has been using. So how is it different between Forecast and Foresight? This book will help answer that. Dr Kuniko Urashima Deputy Director of Foresight Center National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), Japan .

The first of the UN Millennium Goals was to reduce extreme poverty and in 2014 it was halved compared to 1990, and now the goal is to eradicate poverty and hunger by 2030. The reduction in poverty is, to a high degree, the consequence of the rapid economic development in a few countries, especially China, but in many countries around the globe poverty is still at a high level and is influencing societies' overall development. It is against this background that this Handbook provides an up-to-date analysis and overview of the topic from a large variety of theoretical and methodological angles. Organised into four parts, the Handbook provides knowledge on what poverty is, how it has developed, and what type of policies might be able to succeed in reducing poverty. Part I investigates conceptual issues and relates concepts to people's relative position in society and the understanding of justice. Part II shows how poverty has developed. It combines existing empirical knowledge with regional/national understandings of the issue of poverty. Part III analyses policies and interventions with the aim of reducing or alleviating poverty within a national as well as global context. It includes a variety of countries and examples. Finally, Part IV tells us what can be done about poverty; what instruments are available to end poverty as we know it today. This volume will be an invaluable reference book for students and scholars throughout the social sciences, particularly in sociology, social policy, public policy, development studies, international relations and politics.

An award-winning journalist presents a tour-de-force analysis—drawing from history, economics, sociology, and popular culture—of the profound and transformative years of the early 2020s, both for individuals and for the global economy. We are living in a strange world—Salmon calls it “the New Not Normal.� The Phoenix Economy explores the ramifications of the pandemic years, many of which are surprisingly positive. In doing so, Salmon makes sense of one of the most disorienting and devastating events of our lifetimes. He examines the critical aspects of our lives that have been transformed in three parts: Time and Space, Mind and Body, and Business and Pleasure. Salmon’s keen observations, on everything from meme stocks to lobster rolls, are backed by a deep understanding of financial markets and the quirks of human behavior. His clear-eyed perspective on human and economic events, combined with his considerable analytical and observational skills, make The Phoenix Economy an insightful, fast-paced read. This book is essential for anyone wanting a better understanding of the near- and long-term effects of this new era and what they portend for our lives. It’s a penetrating insight into what happened—and, more important, what lies ahead.

Fiscal Therapy shows how to make America's economy stronger and fairer by meeting long-term budget challenges while also addressing its short-term need for more investment and better social policy. America is facing a double-edged sword of budget challenges. In the coming decades, rising public debt will hurt our economy, threaten our global leadership, and reduce the living standards of our people. It will require tax increases and spending cuts to bring about a sustainable outcome. At the same time, however, America has pressing needs - from improving our schools and making child care more available to rebuilding our infrastructure and investing more in scientific research - all of which require upfront investments right now. In Fiscal Therapy, William Gale diagnoses these two set of challenges and explains why we must address them simultaneously. Fiscal Therapy shows that we can address our long-term budget challenges in ways that also help us meet our short-term needs, and we can do so without radically transforming our current institutions and existing programs. Gale draws lessons from the nation's history; takes guidance from the experiences of other advanced nations; reconciles the twin demands of economic growth and social fairness; and addresses the obstacles that America's poisonous politics and fickle public opinion present. Fiscal Therapy provides a clear, comprehensive, and optimistic approach around which liberals and conservatives can rally. One that will leave the United States a stronger, more prosperous, and fairer nation.

Over the last 25 years, evolutionary game theory has grown with theoretical contributions from the disciplines of mathematics, economics, computer science and biology. It is now ripe for applications. In this book, Daniel Friedman--an economist trained in mathematics--and Barry Sinervo--a biologist trained in mathematics--offer the first unified account of evolutionary game theory aimed at applied researchers. They show how to use a single set of tools to build useful models for three different worlds: the natural world studied by biologists; the social world studied by anthropologists, economists, political scientists and others; and the virtual world built by computer scientists and engineers. The first six chapters offer an accessible introduction to core concepts of evolutionary game theory. These include fitness, replicator dynamics, sexual dynamics, memes and genes, single and multiple population games, Nash equilibrium and evolutionarily stable states, noisy best response and other adaptive processes, the Price equation, and cellular automata. The material connects evolutionary game theory with classic population genetic models, and also with classical game theory. Notably, these chapters also show how to estimate payoff and choice parameters from the data. The last eight chapters present exemplary game theory applications. These include a new coevolutionary predator-prey learning model extending rock-paper-scissors; models that use human subject laboratory data to estimate learning dynamics; new approaches to plastic strategies and life cycle strategies, including estimates for male elephant seals; a comparison of machine learning techniques for preserving diversity to those seen in the natural world; analyses of congestion in traffic networks (either internet or highways) and the "price of anarchy "; environmental and trade policy analysis based on evolutionary games; the evolution of cooperation; and speciation. As an aid for instruction, a web site provides downloadable computational tools written in the R programming language, Matlab, Mathematica and Excel.

To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology.

The conventional wisdom on how technology will change the future is wrong. Mark Mills lays out a radically different and optimistic vision for what's really coming. The mainstream forecasts fall into three camps. One considers today as the "new normal," where ordering a ride or food on a smartphone or trading in bitcoins is as good as it's going to get. Another foresees a dystopian era of widespread, digitally driven job- and business-destruction. A third believes that the only technological revolution that matters will be found with renewable energy and electric cars. But according to Mills, a convergence of technologies will instead drive an economic boom over the coming decade, one that historians will characterize as the "Roaring 2020s." It will come not from any single big invention, but from the confluence of radical advances in three primary technology domains: microprocessors, materials, and machines. Microprocessors are increasingly embedded in everything. Materials, from which everything is built, are emerging with novel, almost magical capabilities. And machines, which make and move all manner of stuff, are undergoing a complementary transformation. Accelerating and enabling all of this is the Cloud, history's biggest infrastructure, which is itself based on the building blocks of next-generation microprocessors and artificial intelligence. We've seen this pattern before. The technological revolution that drove the great economic expansion of the twentieth century can be traced to a similar confluence, one that was first visible in the 1920s: a new information infrastructure (telephony), new machines (cars and power plants), and new materials (plastics and pharmaceuticals). Single inventions don't drive great, long-cycle booms. It always takes convergent revolutions in technology's three core spheres-information, materials, and machines. Over history, that's only happened a few times. We have wrung much magic from the technologies that fueled the last long boom. But the great convergence now underway will ignite the 2020s. And this time, unlike any previous historical epoch, we have the Cloud amplifying everything. The next long boom starts now.

With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. A companion website with downloadable datasets, exercises and lecture slides rounds out the full learning package.