The conventional wisdom on how technology will change the future is
wrong. Mark Mills lays out a radically different and optimistic
vision for what's really coming. The mainstream forecasts fall into
three camps. One considers today as the "new normal," where
ordering a ride or food on a smartphone or trading in bitcoins is
as good as it's going to get. Another foresees a dystopian era of
widespread, digitally driven job- and business-destruction. A third
believes that the only technological revolution that matters will
be found with renewable energy and electric cars. But according to
Mills, a convergence of technologies will instead drive an economic
boom over the coming decade, one that historians will characterize
as the "Roaring 2020s." It will come not from any single big
invention, but from the confluence of radical advances in three
primary technology domains: microprocessors, materials, and
machines. Microprocessors are increasingly embedded in everything.
Materials, from which everything is built, are emerging with novel,
almost magical capabilities. And machines, which make and move all
manner of stuff, are undergoing a complementary transformation.
Accelerating and enabling all of this is the Cloud, history's
biggest infrastructure, which is itself based on the building
blocks of next-generation microprocessors and artificial
intelligence. We've seen this pattern before. The technological
revolution that drove the great economic expansion of the twentieth
century can be traced to a similar confluence, one that was first
visible in the 1920s: a new information infrastructure (telephony),
new machines (cars and power plants), and new materials (plastics
and pharmaceuticals). Single inventions don't drive great,
long-cycle booms. It always takes convergent revolutions in
technology's three core spheres-information, materials, and
machines. Over history, that's only happened a few times. We have
wrung much magic from the technologies that fueled the last long
boom. But the great convergence now underway will ignite the 2020s.
And this time, unlike any previous historical epoch, we have the
Cloud amplifying everything. The next long boom starts now.
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