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Slow Growth in the Post-Recession Expansion - Trends & Analyses (Paperback)
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Slow Growth in the Post-Recession Expansion - Trends & Analyses (Paperback)
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Following the housing crash and financial crisis that began to
unfold in 2007, the United States experienced the longest and
deepest recession since the Great Depression. The Great Recession
that began in December 2007 could be explained after the fact based
on the disruptions to the financial system caused by the crisis.
What has followed since the economy returned to expansion in June
2009, however, posed a greater surprise. The standard macroeconomic
model, consistent with the general economic record since World War
II, predicted that the large decline in gross domestic product
(GDP) that the United States experienced during the Great Recession
would be offset by rapid catch-up growth in the subsequent
expansion that began in June 2009, leaving the average growth rate
unchanged in the long run. Instead, the current expansion has
featured the lowest growth rate of any post-war expansion. The
growth rate since the crisis has averaged one-quarter to one-half
the average since World War II, depending on the measure used. Nor
does this slower growth appear to be a transient blip of no greater
relevance, as the current expansion is already longer than average
and has not experienced a period of growth acceleration at any
point in the expansion. Nor is the relatively slow growth unique to
the United States -- all major advanced economies have had a
similar experience since 2007. This book summarizes the U.S.
economic growth record and reviews a number of explanations
forwarded by economists for why this expansion has featured slow
growth. Some explanations focus on short-term factors that would
not be expected to persist, while others focus on long-term changes
to the economy.
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