The "Contributions to Economic Analysis" series consists of a number of previously unpublished studies. The term economic analysis is used because it covers the activities of the theoretical economist and the research worker.

'A near miracle' Ha-Joon Chang, author of 23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism

According to the economy, we have never been wealthier or happier. So why doesn't it feel that way? The Growth Delusion explores how we prioritise growth maximisation without stopping to think about the costs. So much of what is important to our well-being, from safe streets to sound minds, lies outside the purview of statistics. In a book that is both thought-provoking and entertaining, David Pilling argues that our steadfast loyalty to growth is informing misguided policies, and proposes different criteria for measuring our success.

"Economic Forecasting" deals with macroeconomic forecasts from a global point of view. The focus is first on a large range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A synthetic overview of economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided.

"Optimal Growth Economics" is concerned with the investigation of the contemporary issues in general economics, and growth economics and in the formulation of optimal growth programs, especially the issue of the sustainability of growth. This book proposes the development of optimal growth economics as a distinct, coherent and practical discipline useful for social choice by using the techniques of mathematical modelling and computing to address a wide range of emerging and enduring issues in economics. A considerable number of optimal economic growth models have been developed in the book to address the crucial issues of different branches in economics, including growth and development economics, economic planning, welfare economics, environmental economics, human capital development, political economy, natural resources and the economics of uncertainty.

This thoroughly revised second edition of an upper-level undergraduate/graduate text describes many major techniques of forecasting used in economics and business. This is the only time series book to concentrate on the forecasting of economic data and to cover such a broad range of topics. The key features are: explains how to specify and evaluate simple models from the time series and econometric approaches; places special emphasis on the information that is derived from the evaluation and combinations of forecasts; discusses the topics of technological and population forecasting; includes an expanded chapter on regression techniques; presents a practical forecasting project which runs throughout the text; includes an appendix on basic statistical concepts.

This title, first published in 1979, presents the Ph.D. thesis of the world-renowned economist and financial expert, Willem Buiter. In Part I, three alternative specifications of temporary equilibria in asset markets, including their implications for macroeconomic models, are discussed; Part II examines the long-term implications of some short-term macroeconomic models. The analysis of the theoretical foundations of 'direct crowding out' and 'indirect crowding out' is particularly prominent, with the result that a synthesis of short-term macroeconomic analysis and long-term growth theory is formulated. The traditional tools of comparative dynamics and stability analysis are employed frequently. However, it is also argued that the true scope of government policy can only be adequately evaluated with the aid of concepts such as dynamic and static controllability. Temporary Equilibrium and Long-Run Equilibrium is a valuable study, and relevant for all serious students of modern economic theory.

Hardbound. The market model, introduced over thirty years ago, is one of the most studied and utilized return generating models in finance. Over three decades it has withstood rigorous testing and, with refinements over the years, remains the standard of reference today, being applied to almost all existing global investment opportunities. The resulting literature is prolific, and the aim of this book is to consolidate the most important literature on the market model, focusing especially on recent research involving issues related to the model. The market model is analysed in detail and its characteristics discussed, criticisms presented and possible shortcomings tested. The book also presents a guide to the various applications of the model, as well as a discussion of other types of model, their forecasting power and their relationship with the market model.

This book offers a comprehensive overview of sustainability and management in India and through its insightful essays highlights the complex and multifaceted nature of sustainability as a concept. It also demonstrates the debates surrounding the concept of sustainability and its ramifications for ground-level practice in managing organisations and for public policy. The contributions from sustainability enthusiasts, practitioners from disparate fields and academics working at the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, have been divided into five themes: (1) sustainability as a normative concept; (2) sustainability concept at the global level, (3) sustainability practices in Indian organisations and consumer behaviour; (4) sustainability, corporate governance and corporate social responsibility and (5) sustainability: a critique of organisational practice and government regulation. The themes reflect both new and continuing issues confronting management in the country today. Examples and in-depth studies make it relevant to the grounded reality in India. The expertise and experience of the contributors ensure that readers are left with a grasp of our current understanding of how sustainability is related to society and business, the direction this understanding will take in the future.

First published in 1934, this book explores prominent economic questions on the subject of rearmament and disarmament. Both rearmament and disarmament have a number of economic advantages and disadvantages and in each chapter Paul Einzig considers these in order to decide on which side the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. Part I of the book examines the economics of armament in the light of real experience of recent history whilst Part II looks to the probable economic effort of future rearmament.

This volume focuses on the analysis and measurement of business cycles in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Divided into five parts, it begins with an overview of the main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles. Then it highlights the role of BRICS in the global economy and explores the interrelatedness of business cycles within BRICS. In turn, part two provides studies on the historical development of business cycles in the individual BRICS countries and describes the driving forces behind those cycles. Parts three and four present national business tendency surveys and composite cyclical indices for real-time monitoring and forecasting of various BRICS economies, while the final part discusses how the lessons learned in the BRICS countries can be used for the analysis of business cycles and their socio-political consequences in other emerging countries.

The United States lost one third of its factory jobs in the past decade as jobs were outsourced offshore, mostly to Asia. Jobs that require a college degree are next to go. China will award six times as many degrees this year as they did ten years ago and any job that can be digitized will be 'tradable'. Estimates of the number of vulnerable jobs range from a low 11 million to a staggering 56 million 'middle class' jobs. The median United States household income has already dropped by seven percent since 2000 and without dramatic changes in the American workforce that trend will become a disaster for middle class Americans.

First published in 1987, this is an analysis of the contemporary breakdown of political and economic systems within the Eastern European communist countries. Rather than passively following the developments of this crisis, the author seeks instead to identify the reasons for failure and to examine alternative policies that offer solutions to these problems. Jan Winiecki's work offers a comparative study of the Soviet-type economies of the East with the market economies of the West; providing a cause and effect analysis of each model, with possible scenarios for their future prospects.

Part of a series which focuses on advances in futures and options research, this volume discusses a variety of topics in the field of advances in futures and options research.

This book provides an up-to-date summary of the consequences of demographic aging for labor markets, financial markets, economic growth, social security schemes and public finances in Germany, essentially reflecting the present state of knowledge in any of these areas. All contributions are written by leading experts in their fields and are based on results that emerge at the forefront of current research.

How can we effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ?wisdom of the crowd Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies in providing, for example, improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services.

The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza outbreaks to the spread of other infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like surveys, group deliberations, and expert opinion. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes.

This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should appeal to all those with an interest in economics, forecasting or public policy, and in particular those with an interest in the study of money, investment and risk.

This volume is part of a blind refereed serial publication published on an annual basis. The objective of this research annual is to present studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making (an accurate, robust forecast is critical to effective decision making). It is the hope and direction of the research annual to become an applications- and practitioner-oriented publication. The topics include sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgementally-based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, forecasting for strategic business decisions, improvements in forecasting accurate and sales response models.

Tools and methods from complex systems science can have a considerable impact on the way in which the quantitative assessment of economic and financial issues is approached, as discussed in this thesis. First it is shown that the self-organization of financial markets is a crucial factor in the understanding of their dynamics. In fact, using an agent-based approach, it is argued that financial markets' stylized facts appear only in the self-organized state. Secondly, the thesis points out the potential of so-called big data science for financial market modeling, investigating how web-driven data can yield a picture of market activities: it has been found that web query volumes anticipate trade volumes. As a third achievement, the metrics developed here for country competitiveness and product complexity is groundbreaking in comparison to mainstream theories of economic growth and technological development. A key element in assessing the intangible variables determining the success of countries in the present globalized economy is represented by the diversification of the productive basket of countries. The comparison between the level of complexity of a country's productive system and economic indicators such as the GDP per capita discloses its hidden growth potential.

This book has been written as a practical guide for finance markets professionals to explain US monetary policy and to make forecasts of future interest rate levels. Aimed at market players, familiar with US policy instruments, "Explaining and Forecasting the US Federal Funds Rate" will provide a means of making independent interest rate forecasts as well as explaining current rate levels.

While it is relatively easy to construct industrial development strategies and concessions to entice industrial clients, some incentives are not based on sound economic principles and may ultimately cost a local government more than the benefits derived from attracting the industry. Financing Economic Development in the 1980s provides a broad base of information on business trends, factors underlying location decisions, cost-effectiveness of public incentives, and the outlook for local government in declining areas, particularly the Midwest.

Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.

This eighth volume in the series covers a variety of topics in financial planning and forecasting, including: the change in earnings response coefficient around dividend omissions; estimating spin-off values; and, forbearance, deposit insurance, and the market value of savings and loan associations.

'Forecasting tourism demand' is a text that no tourism professional can afford to be without. The tourism industry has experienced an overwhelming boom over recent years, and being able to predict future trends as accurately as possible is vital in the struggle to stay one step ahead of the competition.
Building on the success of 'Practical Tourism Forecasting' this text looks at 13 methods of forecasting and with a user friendly style, 'Forecasting Tourism Demand' guides the reader through each method, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses and explaining how it can be applied to the tourism industry.
'Forecasting Tourism Demand' employs charts and tables to explain how to:
* plan a forecasting project
* analyse time series and other information
* select the appropriate forecasting model
* use the model for forecasting and evaluate its results
Ideal for marketing managers and strategic planners in business, transportation planners and economic policy makers in government who must project demand for their products among tourists. Executives who rely on forecasts prepared by others will find it invaluable in assisting them to evaluate the validity and reliability of predictions and forecasts. Those engaged in analysing business trends will find it useful in surveying the future of what has been called the largest industry in the world.
User-friendly guide to 13 methods of forecasting and selecting the one for you
Examples from lodging, destination, airline and international tourism sectors
Over 40 case studies illustrating the application of techniques described in the book

Electricity Decentralization in the European Union: Towards Zero Carbon and Energy Transition, Second Edition examines progress in decentralization across the European Union, with each chapter focusing on developments and innovations in a specific country. Sections provide an overview of the current role and state of smart grids, the conceptualization of energy transition, and specific cases across all EU states. Across the chapters, regulatory frameworks are assessed to identify to what extent it is conducive to decentralization, with specific outcomes of decentralization covered in detail, including deployment of smart grids and meters, demand response, electric vehicles, and storage. The book highlights how specific EU member states are progressing towards deployment of these tools and technologies, along with the specific needs and regulatory barriers in each and recommendations for how regulation can be more encouraging. In addition, electricity interconnections in the EU are considered as a vital step towards decentralization in order to boost energy security and energy efficiency. Finally, the book includes a detailed examination of data protection concerns that arise from the advent of new technologies that collect personal information, such as smart grids, assessing current regulation on data protection and identifying areas for improvement, as well as innovative finance options for sustainable energy.

In this issue, there are thirteen high-quality and interesting papers to deal with the issue of Financial Analysis, Planning and Forecasting. Out of these thirteen papers, we can classify them into two major groups i.e. (a) Risk Analysis and (b) Financial Evaluation Models. The Risk Analysis group includes five papers as follows:
Time-varying accounting betas and risk estimation for thinly traded stocks: Finnish evidence.
Additional evidence on managerial ownership and risk taking behavior in banking industry.
A DSS approach to managing the risks of online trading.
Estimating exchange rate exposure of U.S. MNC's operating in South America.
Analyzing the risks inherent in the Proctor and Gamble-Bankers trust levered swap contract.

The financial evaluation models group consists of seven papers as follows:
Contextual accrual and cash flow based valuation models: impact of multinationality and corporate reputation.
Predicting changes in cash flow.
Valuing repurchasing corporations with the discounted dividend model: theory and application.
The role of taxes in the composition of the firm's retirement plans.
The valuation of the multinationality of U.S. multinational firms.
Cross-classification models: comparative empirical findings.
An extension of break-even analysis for financial planning.

In addition to these two groups there is a paper using survey approach to banking operations entitled Organizational Features, Operating Procedures, and Overdue Loans: empirical findings from a Commercial Bank's opinion survey in Taiwan.In summary, this issue is useful for readers who are interested in risk analysis and alternative financialevaluation models. In addition to these two groups there is a paper using survey approach to banking operations entitled Organizational Features, Operating Procedures, and Overdue Loans: empirical findings from a Commercial Bank's opinion survey in Taiwan.