What has happened in Latin America's energy sector since the early 1990s is a revolution. Roles of state energy companies, private investment, and foreign capital are rapidly changing. This comprehensive study from the East-West Center presents an in-depth analysis and realistic forecast of Latin America's energy growth and consumption of primary energy and petroleum products. It also explores relationships between Latin American producers and U.S. and international energy markets. Here is invaluable information for energy economists, policy makers, government regulatory officials, oil company executives, and those interested in gaining an insight into the Latin American energy sector and its future.

With the rapid development of economic globalization and information technology, the field of economic forecasting continues its expeditious advancement, providing business and government with applicable technologies. Business Intelligence in Economic Forecasting: Technologies and Techniques discusses various Business Intelligence techniques including neural networks, support vector machine, genetic programming, clustering analysis, TEI@I, fuzzy systems, text mining, and many more. This publication serves as a valuable reference for professionals and researchers interested in BI technologies and their practical applications in economic forecasting, as well as policy makers in business organizations and governments.

A new, evolutionary explanation of markets and investor behavior Half of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet economists can't agree on whether investors and markets are rational and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists believe--and as financial bubbles, crashes, and crises suggest. This is one of the biggest debates in economics and the value or futility of investment management and financial regulation hang on the outcome. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Lo cuts through this debate with a new framework, the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis, in which rationality and irrationality coexist. Drawing on psychology, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and other fields, Adaptive Markets shows that the theory of market efficiency isn't wrong but merely incomplete. When markets are unstable, investors react instinctively, creating inefficiencies for others to exploit. Lo's new paradigm explains how financial evolution shapes behavior and markets at the speed of thought--a fact revealed by swings between stability and crisis, profit and loss, and innovation and regulation. A fascinating intellectual journey filled with compelling stories, Adaptive Markets starts with the origins of market efficiency and its failures, turns to the foundations of investor behavior, and concludes with practical implications--including how hedge funds have become the Galapagos Islands of finance, what really happened in the 2008 meltdown, and how we might avoid future crises. An ambitious new answer to fundamental questions in economics, Adaptive Markets is essential reading for anyone who wants to know how markets really work.

With motivated human resources and a rich natural bounty, Myanmar is expected to take off with sustained growth and eventually attain a unique welfare state. On the basis of the authors' field surveys and innumerable dialogues with public officials, private professionals, scholars, and others, in addition to intensive desk studies since around 2000, the present volume lays out the essential ingredients for drawing a roadmap to realise the above-mentioned objective. That goal is, specifically, financial development, adequate social capital, indigenous modern manufactures and closer international tie-ups, among others, but above all, sound agrarian development. An effort has been made to place the required ingredients in their historical contexts, as historical experiences constitute an important sociopolitical condition in which development takes place. Myanmar nationals and readers concerned with the country's economic progress are encouraged to give serious, sustained thought to coming up with a socially supportable roadmap for the country's development path. The present volume provides valuable hints for that purpose.

A collection of papers from leading thinkers to celebrate the work of the late Wynne Godley, and his enormous contribution to the field of monetary economics. Chapters include in-depth discussions of the revolutionary economic modelling systems that Godley introduced, as well as his prescient concerns about the global financial crash.

To have a sound strategy a company must be able to conduct a sound environmental assessment (EA). Executives and managers in all industries need to be able to analyze and anticipate trends in the economy as well as their industries and target markets. But guidance on effective approaches to environmental assessment is scattered among the literature on everything from economics, to marketing, general management and strategy. Meanwhile most executives are uncertain about both current and future prospects for their own commercial environment. Addressing the need for proven EA guidelines, Roney's book offers practical approaches that can help planners develop models detailing the trends, forecasts, and alternative futures which are integral to environmental assessment and thus critical to effective strategic planning.

Roney begins with a broad description of the environmental assessment practices of American business, and how these practices have created significant competitive advantages for U.S. businesses. After reviewing approaches to assessing a company's economy, its industry and the markets it serves, Roney analyzes the forecasting methods themselves. He focuses on assessing uncertainty and alternative futures through the use of scenario forecasting and contingency planning. His concluding chapter summarizes the environmental conditions that can be defined with reasonable accuracy, describing the range of techniques that can be used in the assessment process. His appendix, an information tool kit, provides a variety of important reference materials. Included are tables to cross-reference SIC codes and the new NAICS classification categories; projections of demographic trends for the U.S. and other industrialized nations; economic and demographic data describing the composition of world markets, plus additional aids that strategic planners and corporate management with other responsibilities will find invaluable.

The "Contributions to Economic Analysis" series consists of a number of previously unpublished studies. The term economic analysis is used because it covers the activities of the theoretical economist and the research worker.

"Economic Forecasting" deals with macroeconomic forecasts from a global point of view. The focus is first on a large range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A synthetic overview of economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided.

"Optimal Growth Economics" is concerned with the investigation of the contemporary issues in general economics, and growth economics and in the formulation of optimal growth programs, especially the issue of the sustainability of growth. This book proposes the development of optimal growth economics as a distinct, coherent and practical discipline useful for social choice by using the techniques of mathematical modelling and computing to address a wide range of emerging and enduring issues in economics. A considerable number of optimal economic growth models have been developed in the book to address the crucial issues of different branches in economics, including growth and development economics, economic planning, welfare economics, environmental economics, human capital development, political economy, natural resources and the economics of uncertainty.

Handbook of Economic Expectations discusses the state-of-the-art in the collection, study and use of expectations data in economics, including the modelling of expectations formation and updating, as well as open questions and directions for future research. The book spans a broad range of fields, approaches and applications using data on subjective expectations that allows us to make progress on fundamental questions around the formation and updating of expectations by economic agents and their information sets. The information included will help us study heterogeneity and potential biases in expectations and analyze impacts on behavior and decision-making under uncertainty.

This title, first published in 1979, presents the Ph.D. thesis of the world-renowned economist and financial expert, Willem Buiter. In Part I, three alternative specifications of temporary equilibria in asset markets, including their implications for macroeconomic models, are discussed; Part II examines the long-term implications of some short-term macroeconomic models. The analysis of the theoretical foundations of 'direct crowding out' and 'indirect crowding out' is particularly prominent, with the result that a synthesis of short-term macroeconomic analysis and long-term growth theory is formulated. The traditional tools of comparative dynamics and stability analysis are employed frequently. However, it is also argued that the true scope of government policy can only be adequately evaluated with the aid of concepts such as dynamic and static controllability. Temporary Equilibrium and Long-Run Equilibrium is a valuable study, and relevant for all serious students of modern economic theory.

This thoroughly revised second edition of an upper-level undergraduate/graduate text describes many major techniques of forecasting used in economics and business. This is the only time series book to concentrate on the forecasting of economic data and to cover such a broad range of topics. The key features are: explains how to specify and evaluate simple models from the time series and econometric approaches; places special emphasis on the information that is derived from the evaluation and combinations of forecasts; discusses the topics of technological and population forecasting; includes an expanded chapter on regression techniques; presents a practical forecasting project which runs throughout the text; includes an appendix on basic statistical concepts.

At the time in which this book was first published in 1987, mass unemployment had emerged as the dominant, most visible, problem of the West European economies. The post-war experience of expansion was remarkable in that it experienced growth high enough to sustain a consensus on the possibility and desirability of full employment. This period declined into one of poor economic performance in the 1970s. Growth slowed and the subsequent years were characterised by painful adjustment and dislocation. In this challenging discussion of ways to overcome unemployment Ciaran Driver stresses the importance of managed restructuring. Driver focuses attention of the role of investment in fixed assets and human resources, and argues that governments do have a major role in steering the economy through a period of turbulent change, and that there are policies which can move the economy towards full employment. This book is ideal for students of business and economics.

Energy price rises have been amongst the biggest change that has taken place in our society over the last few decades. Their impact, particularly when this book was first published in 1983, had a growing importance in social policy, practice and research, and fuel was, and still is, a major public issue. This collection of essays describes how any why domestic fuel prices have been rising faster than other prices and incomes, what impacts this has on domestic budgets, and the extent of 'fuel poverty'. The resulting problems of debts, disconnections, cold conditions and hypothermia are discussed by specialists in these fields. This book is ideal for students of economics and social policy.

This book offers a comprehensive overview of sustainability and management in India and through its insightful essays highlights the complex and multifaceted nature of sustainability as a concept. It also demonstrates the debates surrounding the concept of sustainability and its ramifications for ground-level practice in managing organisations and for public policy. The contributions from sustainability enthusiasts, practitioners from disparate fields and academics working at the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, have been divided into five themes: (1) sustainability as a normative concept; (2) sustainability concept at the global level, (3) sustainability practices in Indian organisations and consumer behaviour; (4) sustainability, corporate governance and corporate social responsibility and (5) sustainability: a critique of organisational practice and government regulation. The themes reflect both new and continuing issues confronting management in the country today. Examples and in-depth studies make it relevant to the grounded reality in India. The expertise and experience of the contributors ensure that readers are left with a grasp of our current understanding of how sustainability is related to society and business, the direction this understanding will take in the future.

Hardbound. The market model, introduced over thirty years ago, is one of the most studied and utilized return generating models in finance. Over three decades it has withstood rigorous testing and, with refinements over the years, remains the standard of reference today, being applied to almost all existing global investment opportunities. The resulting literature is prolific, and the aim of this book is to consolidate the most important literature on the market model, focusing especially on recent research involving issues related to the model. The market model is analysed in detail and its characteristics discussed, criticisms presented and possible shortcomings tested. The book also presents a guide to the various applications of the model, as well as a discussion of other types of model, their forecasting power and their relationship with the market model.

For undergraduate and graduate courses in Business Forecasting. Written in a simple, straightforward style, Business Forecasting 9/e presents basic statistical techniques using practical business examples to teach students how to predict long-term forecasts.

First published in 1934, this book explores prominent economic questions on the subject of rearmament and disarmament. Both rearmament and disarmament have a number of economic advantages and disadvantages and in each chapter Paul Einzig considers these in order to decide on which side the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. Part I of the book examines the economics of armament in the light of real experience of recent history whilst Part II looks to the probable economic effort of future rearmament.

The United States lost one third of its factory jobs in the past decade as jobs were outsourced offshore, mostly to Asia. Jobs that require a college degree are next to go. China will award six times as many degrees this year as they did ten years ago and any job that can be digitized will be 'tradable'. Estimates of the number of vulnerable jobs range from a low 11 million to a staggering 56 million 'middle class' jobs. The median United States household income has already dropped by seven percent since 2000 and without dramatic changes in the American workforce that trend will become a disaster for middle class Americans.

This volume focuses on the analysis and measurement of business cycles in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Divided into five parts, it begins with an overview of the main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles. Then it highlights the role of BRICS in the global economy and explores the interrelatedness of business cycles within BRICS. In turn, part two provides studies on the historical development of business cycles in the individual BRICS countries and describes the driving forces behind those cycles. Parts three and four present national business tendency surveys and composite cyclical indices for real-time monitoring and forecasting of various BRICS economies, while the final part discusses how the lessons learned in the BRICS countries can be used for the analysis of business cycles and their socio-political consequences in other emerging countries.

First published in 1987, this is an analysis of the contemporary breakdown of political and economic systems within the Eastern European communist countries. Rather than passively following the developments of this crisis, the author seeks instead to identify the reasons for failure and to examine alternative policies that offer solutions to these problems. Jan Winiecki's work offers a comparative study of the Soviet-type economies of the East with the market economies of the West; providing a cause and effect analysis of each model, with possible scenarios for their future prospects.

How can we effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ?wisdom of the crowd Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies in providing, for example, improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services.

The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza outbreaks to the spread of other infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like surveys, group deliberations, and expert opinion. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes.

This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should appeal to all those with an interest in economics, forecasting or public policy, and in particular those with an interest in the study of money, investment and risk.

Part of a series which focuses on advances in futures and options research, this volume discusses a variety of topics in the field of advances in futures and options research.

This book provides an up-to-date summary of the consequences of demographic aging for labor markets, financial markets, economic growth, social security schemes and public finances in Germany, essentially reflecting the present state of knowledge in any of these areas. All contributions are written by leading experts in their fields and are based on results that emerge at the forefront of current research.

Until recently, double-digit economic growth was not unusual among Asian countries and, in fact, had come to be expected of them. From western India to northeastern China, markets were booming and incredible numbers of foreign investors were racing into the Asian markets. Scholars have written laudatory books and articles, politicians want to ensure that trade with Asian countries continues on a rising trajectory, and business leaders have become the new promoters of Asian prosperity. This book attempts to inject a note of caution and reality, while giving Asian countries well-deserved credit for improving their economic status.

Technological, managerial, and institutional deficiencies need to be addressed in Asian countries if the progress of the past two decades is to be restored and preserved. Although Asian nations, particularly Japan, have invested heavily in R&D, their success mainly derives from process improvements and not from new product innovations. Technology and science are the foundations of modern economic civilization, and Asia's assets fall behind Western countries in both areas. The centrality of family-based organizations in some Asian economies and the dependence on horizontal/vertical networks in others also limits the ability of Asian firms to become global operations. The lack of adequate institutions such as an independent judiciary and a responsive polity, and the absence of organizations to bridge the gap between between familism and the government, results in an uncertain societal framework in much of Asia. If robust economic growth is to return, Asian economies must rectify the weaknesses Arogyaswamy exposes in this provocative and timely book.