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Books > Business & Economics > Economics > Economic forecasting

Upwave - City Dynamics and the Coming Capitalist Revival (Paperback, New Ed): John Montgomery Upwave - City Dynamics and the Coming Capitalist Revival (Paperback, New Ed)
John Montgomery
R1,621 Discovery Miles 16 210 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Countering the many claims that the best days of capitalism are over following the economic meltdown of 2008 onwards, this book provocatively argues that a new golden age of capitalism - or upwave - began around 2002, and despite the unstable markets in the western world of the past few years, this upwave will produce previously unseen levels of wealth creation during the next twenty years. Basing this theory on the commercialisation of new technologies and the growth of new markets, the author claims that these positive trends are key to economic recovery in the US, UK and Europe. It argues that the most serious problem facing some countries in the west is government debt and that macroeconomic policy is of limited use in flexible and adaptive economies, where innovation, entrepreneurship and private investment should be encouraged in a range of cities and city regions. This highly original book will interest those concerned with national economies, nation states and urban policy.

Budget Deficits and Economic Performance (Routledge Revivals) (Paperback): Richard Burdekin, Farrokh Langdana Budget Deficits and Economic Performance (Routledge Revivals) (Paperback)
Richard Burdekin, Farrokh Langdana
R953 R650 Discovery Miles 6 500 Save R303 (32%) Ships in 12 - 17 working days

At the time in which this book was first published in 1992, there was a major concern with the macro-economic implications of fiscal imbalance. As the European economies moved closer to monetary union, and Germany grappled with the fiscal pressures of unification, deficits in the United States exceeded $300 billion. In this volume the authors address this issue, using both historical case-studies and cross-national comparisons. This book will be of interest to students of economics.

Regional Economic Outlook - Western Hemisphere, April 2011 (Paperback): Regional Economic Outlook - Western Hemisphere, April 2011 (Paperback)
R886 R566 Discovery Miles 5 660 Save R320 (36%) Ships in 12 - 17 working days

The theme of this issue of the Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, "Watching out for Overheating," reflects risks for much of the region from rising inflation, strong domestic demand resulting in widening current account deficits, and strong credit and asset price growth. A dual outlook for the global economy, in which growth in emerging economies continues to outstrip growth in advanced economies, has implications for policy challenges facing emerging market economies in the region. And in the Caribbean, where public debt is high, fiscal policy will need to be consolidating, to ensure macro stability and set the stage for future growth. For all countries, rising global commodity prices, especially that of food, threaten social safety networks for the most vulnerable populations.

Global Environmental Change and Agriculture - Assessing the Impacts (Hardcover): George Frisvold, Betsey Kuhn Global Environmental Change and Agriculture - Assessing the Impacts (Hardcover)
George Frisvold, Betsey Kuhn
R3,809 Discovery Miles 38 090 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Global Environmental Change and Agriculture offers a comprehensive perspective on the causes, consequences and possible policy solutions for climatic change as we move into the twenty-first century. It assesses the impact of potential future global climate change on agriculture and the need to sustain agricultural growth for economic development. The book begins by examining the role of international research institutions in overcoming environmental constraints on sustainable agricultural growth and economic development. The authors then discuss how agricultural research systems may be restructured to respond to global environmental problems such as climate change and loss of genetic diversity. The discussion then extends to consider environmental accounting and indexing, to illustrate how environmental quality can be included formally in measures of national income, social welfare and sustainability. The third part of the book focuses on the effects of and policy responses to climate change. Chapters examine the effect of climate change on production, trade, land use patterns and livelihoods. They consider impacts on the distribution of income between developed and developing countries and between different social classes within the developing world, where agriculture remains a major economic activity. Authors take on an economy-wide perspective to draw lessons for agricultural, trade, land use and tax policy. This book will be of special interest to agricultural, development and environmental economists as well as policy analysts in government and at international agencies confronting practical problems of environmental and economic assessment.

Forecasting Air Travel Demand - Looking at China (Paperback): Yafei Zheng, Kin Keung Lai, Shouyang Wang Forecasting Air Travel Demand - Looking at China (Paperback)
Yafei Zheng, Kin Keung Lai, Shouyang Wang
R1,239 Discovery Miles 12 390 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

This book provides an updated, concise summary of forecasting air travel demand methodology. It looks at air travel demand forecasting research and attempts to outline the whole intellectual landscape of demand forecasting. It helps readers to understand the basic idea of TEI@I methodology used in forecasting air travel demand and how it is used in developing air travel demand forecasting methods. The book also discusses what to do when facing different forecasting problems making it a useful reference for business practitioners in the industry.

Macroeconomic Planning (Hardcover): Roger Bowles, David Whynes Macroeconomic Planning (Hardcover)
Roger Bowles, David Whynes
R3,916 Discovery Miles 39 160 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

This volume, originally published in 1979, examines systematically the nature of control in both capitalist and socialist economies, develops a theoretical and applied framework which can embrace both macroeconomics and plannng and demonstates the essential unity of all forms of macroeconomic planning by the consistent application of basic economic principles. Firstly, the authors establish why societies feel a need for government control and examine the mechanisms by which such social decisions are reached. Next they examine the nature of economic data, the modelling of economic systems nad a review of practical policy goals and instruments. The book then reviews the basic theory of optimisation and elaborates it in the context of planning for growth, for stabilisation and under uncertainty. It closes with an analysis of practical planning based on French and Soviet experience.

Macroeconomic Policy - Inflation, Wealth and the Exchange Rate (Hardcover): Martin Weale, Andrew Blake, Nicos Christodoulakis,... Macroeconomic Policy - Inflation, Wealth and the Exchange Rate (Hardcover)
Martin Weale, Andrew Blake, Nicos Christodoulakis, James Meade, David Vines
R4,235 R2,916 Discovery Miles 29 160 Save R1,319 (31%) Ships in 12 - 17 working days

This analysis of macroeconomic policy, originally published in 1989, argues that key government objectives, such as reduced inflation, decreased unemployment and an adequate level of national saving can be achieved only by employing both monetary and fiscal policies, in conjunction with supply-side policies expressly designed to improve the workings of the labour market. Part 1 is a comparative analysis showing the effects of monetary and fiscal policy on the economy. Real-wage rigidity in the labour market is shown to have important consequences for the working of both types of policy, because it conditions the economy's response to tax changes. Part 2 presents an econometric model which combines consistent stock-flow accounts with a full range of expectational effects. Part 3 presents an innovative technique for solving rational expectations models with the need for arbitary terminal conditions.

Forecasting China's Future - Dominance or collapse? (Hardcover): Roger Irvine Forecasting China's Future - Dominance or collapse? (Hardcover)
Roger Irvine
R4,210 Discovery Miles 42 100 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

China's future development is likely to have a huge impact on twenty-first century global outcomes. It is therefore surprising that, thus far, so little attention has been given to comparing and evaluating expert forecasts of China's future in the post-Mao era. This book presents an illuminating and comprehensive summary record of contrasting and competing expert forecasts and judgements about the major issues confronting China within four principal domains - political, economic, environmental, and international. After considering the principal forecasting methods available to experts, the author comments critically on the degree of success achieved in using those methods and emphasises the confusion created by the polarisation of opinion and by the failure of many experts to accept the high degree of uncertainty that characterises most of the key issues. The book recommends a new approach based on the study of a hierarchy of critical uncertainties and on continuing analysis of opposing expert opinions about these uncertainties. It emphasises the potential for both positive and negative outcomes for these critical uncertainties, and the importance of maximising the potential for positive outcomes through improved analytical and policy frameworks. Providing insights for specialists and non-specialists into the most critical issues that will determine China's future direction, this book will be of particular interest to students and scholars of political, economic, environmental, and international relations issues in China and Asia, as well as to readers in business and government.

Industrial Restructuring, Financial Instability and the Dynamics of the Postwar US Economy (RLE: Business Cycles) (Hardcover):... Industrial Restructuring, Financial Instability and the Dynamics of the Postwar US Economy (RLE: Business Cycles) (Hardcover)
David J. Carrier
R3,763 Discovery Miles 37 630 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

This volume, originally published in 1997, examines the combined effect of financial instability and industrial restructuring on postwar economic growth and recession in the US. It sheds light on the fundamental question of whether or not these trends are positive for the economy as a whole. To explain the cyclical nature of investment and finance, institutional theory regarding financial instability is examined in depth and related to Minsky's analysis of investment behaviour. The author has created an empirical model of this behaviour which, he claims, accurately predicts historical consumption investment and GDP cycles.

Business Cycles and Economic Policy (RLE: Business Cycles) (Hardcover): Erik Lundberg Business Cycles and Economic Policy (RLE: Business Cycles) (Hardcover)
Erik Lundberg; Translated by J. Potter
R4,214 Discovery Miles 42 140 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

The book's main purposes are to determine what statistical and other information is needed to formulate both the objects and the means of government economic policy and then to ask what theoretical tools should be used in order to clarify the issues of economic policy. Inflationary gap analysis, national budgeting techniques and the theory of economic fluctuations are examined against the experience of a country in which they have been intelligently applied. The book gives a lively account of Swedish economic thinking and of the economic policy debates in Sweden since 1920, discusses the scope and limitations of national forecasting and budgeting and assesses the relative merits of general and detailed measures of economic policy.

Wealth, Inclusive Growth and Sustainability (Paperback): Shunsuke Managi Wealth, Inclusive Growth and Sustainability (Paperback)
Shunsuke Managi
R1,300 Discovery Miles 13 000 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

The excessive pursuit of economic interests has resulted in severe environmental and social problems, such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and inequality and disparity. There is an urgent need for broader measures of progress to complement Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This book provides a wide range of economic evaluations of environmental and societal issues including climate change, emission problem from garbage landfills, and income inequality. The book explains that sustainability indicators and well-being measures can be effective guide for policy making and how they can strike a balance between economic, environmental, and societal interests. This book summarizes current practices and theories of economic evaluation for sustainability and provides understanding of emerging trends in this area. It also stresses the importance of environmental policies and business actions in achieving sustainable growth and puts forth why countries should take natural capital and other conventional inputs into consideration.

Futures Markets (Routledge Revivals) - Their Establishment and Performance (Paperback): Barry Goss Futures Markets (Routledge Revivals) - Their Establishment and Performance (Paperback)
Barry Goss
R1,172 Discovery Miles 11 720 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

First published in 1986, this book discusses many important aspects of the theory and practice of Futures Markets. It describes how they, at the time, grew to be an increasingly important feature of the world's major financial centres. Indeed, they adopted the role of being efficient forward pricing mechanisms and this was reflected by the interest of economists in the study of risk, uncertainty and information. Here, the contributors focus on areas that were of concern in the late 1980s such as feasibility, forward pricing and returns, and the modelling of price determination in Futures Markets. Evidence is drawn from twenty-five different commodities representing all the major commodity groups; and from all the world's major centres of Futures Trading.

Economic Prospects - East and West - A View from the East (Paperback): Jan Winiecki Economic Prospects - East and West - A View from the East (Paperback)
Jan Winiecki
R1,181 Discovery Miles 11 810 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

First published in 1987, this is an analysis of the contemporary breakdown of political and economic systems within the Eastern European communist countries. Rather than passively following the developments of this crisis, the author seeks instead to identify the reasons for failure and to examine alternative policies that offer solutions to these problems. Jan Winiecki's work offers a comparative study of the Soviet-type economies of the East with the market economies of the West; providing a cause and effect analysis of each model, with possible scenarios for their future prospects.

Money, Trade and Economic Growth - Survey Lectures in Economic Theory (Hardcover): Harry Johnson Money, Trade and Economic Growth - Survey Lectures in Economic Theory (Hardcover)
Harry Johnson
R1,157 Discovery Miles 11 570 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

This book deals with the effects of international trade on economic growth and money. It also re-examines Keynesian theory and analyzes economic growth in an affluent society in terms of planning, economic and social policy.

The Fiscal Impact Handbook - Estimating Local Costs and Revenues of Land Development (Paperback): David Listokin The Fiscal Impact Handbook - Estimating Local Costs and Revenues of Land Development (Paperback)
David Listokin
R1,511 Discovery Miles 15 110 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

The Fiscal Impact Handbook is a unique manual detailing practical methods for determining the full range of revenues and costs associated with residential and nonresidential growth. Planners, economists, businessmen, administrators, financial officers, assessors, community groups, private organizations, and those interested in the fiscal consequences of growth and non-growth will find "The Fiscal Impact Handbook" indispensable. Fiscal impact methods are presented in a clear, step-by-step format and are capable of being carried out by the practicing planner with minimal procedural problems. The manual is designed as a basic tool to be used for projections of direct, current public (and private) costs and revenues resulting from population or employment change to the local jurisdiction in which change is taking place. Standardized methods are presented with attention paid to the underlying assumptions, limitations, and applicability of these methods. Necessary factors affecting the planning and legal framework and documentation of key data input are covered for proper utilization of fiscal impact methods.

Detailed examples are given to the six flexible methods, presented with suggestions on how they can be modified by the user to meet requirements. In addition, current computer models of analysis are evaluated for operational needs and benefits. Included also is a comprehensive bibliography of the cost-revenue field and an index for quick, easy reference. This is an invaluable work for urban analysts, planners, and developers written by two of the top minds in the field of urban policy.

Upwave - City Dynamics and the Coming Capitalist Revival (Hardcover, New Ed): John Montgomery Upwave - City Dynamics and the Coming Capitalist Revival (Hardcover, New Ed)
John Montgomery
R4,203 Discovery Miles 42 030 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Countering the many claims that the best days of capitalism are over following the economic meltdown of 2008 onwards, this book provocatively argues that a new golden age of capitalism - or upwave - began around 2002, and despite the unstable markets in the western world of the past few years, this upwave will produce previously unseen levels of wealth creation during the next twenty years. Basing this theory on the commercialisation of new technologies and the growth of new markets, the author claims that these positive trends are key to economic recovery in the US, UK and Europe. It argues that the most serious problem facing some countries in the west is government debt and that macroeconomic policy is of limited use in flexible and adaptive economies, where innovation, entrepreneurship and private investment should be encouraged in a range of cities and city regions. This highly original book will interest those concerned with national economies, nation states and urban policy.

Frontiers of Evolutionary Economics - Competition, Self-Organization and Innovation Policy (Paperback, New edition): John... Frontiers of Evolutionary Economics - Competition, Self-Organization and Innovation Policy (Paperback, New edition)
John Foster, J. Stanley Metcalfe
R1,751 Discovery Miles 17 510 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Modern evolutionary economics is now nearly two decades old and in this excellent book, a distinguished group of evolutionary economists identify the most important developments and discuss the direction of future research. By moving away from traditional concerns with the operation of selection mechanisms towards a preoccupation with the manner in which the novelty and variety provide fuel for such mechanisms, the authors identify a key development in the field. Evolutionary economists have been drawn into the modern complexity science literature which attempts to provide an understanding of how and why 'complex adaptive systems' engage in processes of self-organization. The goal is to provide an integrated analysis of both selection and self-organization that is uniquely economic in orientation. After a brief overview of the many key achievements and continuing challenges, the first part of the book deals with theoretical perspectives, discussing institutional change, social constructions, complexity, selection and self-selection and the usefulness of theory. Part two deals with empirical perspectives and includes discussion of replicator dynamics, the measurement of heterogeneity and complexity, and modelling organizations as complex adaptive systems. This unique book will appeal to evolutionary and industrial economists and policymakers involved with issues of innovation and management scientists.

Egypt in the Twenty First Century - Challenges for Development (Paperback): M. Riad El-Ghonemy Egypt in the Twenty First Century - Challenges for Development (Paperback)
M. Riad El-Ghonemy
R1,360 Discovery Miles 13 600 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

The book focuses on three main themes: * overpopulation associated with low productivity, unemployment, persistent poverty and weak savings and investment capacity * the post-1950 development strategies and their outcomes * the institutional structures that are constraining economic and political progress. Egypt in the Twenty First Century is a much needed investigation into the long-term economic reform and restructuring and examines the challenges ahead for the country. It provides authoritative analyses from a collection of respected academics and a wealth of new data. It will appeal to all those interested in the political economy of contemporary Egypt. agriculture, industry and political systems.

The Making of National Economic Forecasts (Hardcover): Lawrence R. Klein The Making of National Economic Forecasts (Hardcover)
Lawrence R. Klein
R4,104 Discovery Miles 41 040 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently - at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly - depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.

Projecting Environmental Trends from Economic Forecasts (Paperback): Peter Meyer, Thomas Lyons, Tara Clapp Projecting Environmental Trends from Economic Forecasts (Paperback)
Peter Meyer, Thomas Lyons, Tara Clapp
R1,034 Discovery Miles 10 340 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

This title was first published in 2000: Sustainable development offers visions of the future, but implementation of new sustainable policies seems slow. This text presents a forecasting method directed to overcome some barriers to the implementation of more sustainable economic policy. Using a case study, the authors describe how economic and environmental forecasts can be developed that are relevant to the immediate concerns of policy-makers and are more likely to lead to policy changes. A combination of forecasting methods are shown to evaluate a range of current alternatives in the future. Similar techniques have been used in developing countries, but here the techniques are applied to an already industrialized economy.

The Elliott Wave Principle: 20th Anniversary Edition - Key to Market Behavior (Paperback, New Ed): R R Prechter The Elliott Wave Principle: 20th Anniversary Edition - Key to Market Behavior (Paperback, New Ed)
R R Prechter
R1,287 Discovery Miles 12 870 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

"This is a definitive, excellent book on Elliott, and I recommend it to all who have an interest in the Wave Principle." Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters
"Gold and Silver Today wholeheartedly endorses this book. It is the definitive work on a scientific wave theory of human experience. If you are interested in technical or wave analysis, it should be required reading." Gold & Silver Today
"This book is extremely well done. It is clear, brief and bold....by far the most useful and comprehensive for both the beginner and the veteran." William Dilanni, Wellington Mgmt. Co.
"An outstanding job...I don't think a better basic handbook of Elliott Wave theory could be written." Donald J. Hoppe, Business and Investment Analysis
"...A top-drawer reference for serious technical analysts....all the nuts and bolts necessary to do their own Elliott Wave assembly." Futures Magazine
"Chapter Three is the best description of Fibonacci numbers we've seen in print and that alone is worth the price of the book." Janes Dines, The Dines Letter
"In a third of a lifetime in this business, this was the first time I really understood Elliott, and this is certainly the first book on Elliott that I could recommend. All the methods that Prechter has used so successfully are fully described in this book." The Professional Investor
"Elliott Wave Principle is such an important, fascinating, even mind-bending work, we are convinced that it should be read by and and every serious student of the market, be they fundamentalist or technician, dealing in stocks, bonds or commodities." Market Decisions
"Even allowing for minor stumbles, that 1978 prediction must go down as the most remarkable stick market prediction of all time." James W. Cowan, Monitor Money Review
Recipient of the Technical Analysis Association's Award of Excellence

Construction and Application of Property Price Indices (Hardcover): Anthony Owusu-Ansah Construction and Application of Property Price Indices (Hardcover)
Anthony Owusu-Ansah
R4,494 Discovery Miles 44 940 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

The importance of house prices to households, real estate developers, banks and policy-makers cannot be overemphasised. House price changes affect consumer spending and business investment patterns, which in turn affect the wider macro economy and the entire business cycle. Measuring and understanding house prices is therefore essential to a functioning economy, but researchers continue to disagree on the best methodological approach for constructing real estate indices. This book argues the need for more accurate house price indices, outlines the various methods used to construct indices and discusses the existing house price indices around the globe. It shows how the raw data of property transactions can be prepared for the purpose of constructing indices, discusses various applications of property price indices and empirically demonstrates how the index numbers can be used to model the supply of new houses and to estimate the price elasticity of supply. Essential reading for economists, real estate professionals and researchers, and policy-makers.

Tracking America's Economy (Paperback, 4th edition): Norman Frumkin Tracking America's Economy (Paperback, 4th edition)
Norman Frumkin
R1,291 Discovery Miles 12 910 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

This completely revised and updated edition of Norman Frumkin's acclaimed work offers vital information for the urgent growing debate on the state of the nation's economy. Frumkin makes complex ideas and statistical data accessible to people without special training in economics. His goal in this book is to provide a better understanding of the performance of the American economy, and a basis for evaluating proposals intended to influence its future course. Using data current through the first half of 2003, Frumkin focuses on the meaning and use of a wide array of indicators of economic growth, employment, wages, productivity, investment, saving, and finance in assessing the current state of the U.S. economy and forecasting future developments. Equally useful for economists, students, investors, journalists, and anyone concerned with the economy, this totally revised edition includes detailed coverage of many important new topics, such as terrorism's impact on the economy, federal debt and interest rates, job openings and unemployment, government spending and taxes, the 2001 recession, and more.

Tracking America's Economy (Hardcover, 4th edition): Norman Frumkin Tracking America's Economy (Hardcover, 4th edition)
Norman Frumkin
R3,907 Discovery Miles 39 070 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

This completely revised and updated edition of Norman Frumkin's acclaimed work offers vital information for the urgent growing debate on the state of the nation's economy. Frumkin makes complex ideas and statistical data accessible to people without special training in economics. His goal in this book is to provide a better understanding of the performance of the American economy, and a basis for evaluating proposals intended to influence its future course. Using data current through the first half of 2003, Frumkin focuses on the meaning and use of a wide array of indicators of economic growth, employment, wages, productivity, investment, saving, and finance in assessing the current state of the U.S. economy and forecasting future developments. Equally useful for economists, students, investors, journalists, and anyone concerned with the economy, this totally revised edition includes detailed coverage of many important new topics, such as terrorism's impact on the economy, federal debt and interest rates, job openings and unemployment, government spending and taxes, the 2001 recession, and more.

Fixing Financial Crises in the 21st Century (Hardcover, New edition): Andrew Haldane Fixing Financial Crises in the 21st Century (Hardcover, New edition)
Andrew Haldane
R3,937 Discovery Miles 39 370 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Financial crises have dogged the international monetary system over recent years. They have impoverished millions of people around the world, especially within developing countries. And they have called into question the very process of globalisation. Yet there remains no intellectual consensus on how best to avert such crises - much less resolve them. Policymakers stand at a crossroads. This volume summarises and evaluates these issues, drawing on contributions by prominent international experts in the field. It considers whether the IMF may have actually fanned the flames of future crises through its lending decisions. It assesses the contribution made by private creditors in resolving past crises - and asks what mechanisms might best be used to involve private creditors in the future. It also assesses the merits of two recent competing blueprints for architectural reform - the so-called contractual and statutory approaches to crisis resolution. These issues will shape the debate on the future of the international monetary system over the next decade and, probably, beyond. For although crises may always be with us, better public policy can surely help mitigate their future cost and incidence. With an impressive array of internationally based contributors, this book will deserve a place on the bookshelves of economists and policy-makers in both the official and private sectors.

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