How can we effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information
that are spread among many different individuals? In other words,
how does one best access the ?wisdom of the crowd Prediction
markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the
purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer
the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has
the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national
and international level, but also to assist companies in providing,
for example, improved estimates of the potential market size for a
new product idea or the launch date of new products and
services.
The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain
outcomes ranging from influenza outbreaks to the spread of other
infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the
box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and
election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines.
The insights gained also have many potentially valuable
applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer
substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as
forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms
like surveys, group deliberations, and expert opinion. Moreover,
they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to
yield information that is valuable for government and commercial
policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social
purposes.
This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the
leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the
base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book
should appeal to all those with an interest in economics,
forecasting or public policy, and in particular those with an
interest in the study of money, investment and risk.
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