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Economic Forecasting - An Introduction (Paperback)
Loot Price: R939
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Economic Forecasting - An Introduction (Paperback)
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This book provides an introduction to the methods employed in
forecasting the future state of the economy. It provides a
comprehensive coverage of methods and applications in this
fast-growing area and is intended for use in postgraduate and
upper-level undergraduate courses. Part I outlines the available
techniques, particularly those used in business forecasting and
econometric forecasting. The state of the art in time series
modelling is reviewed and includes a discussion of Box-Jenkins
models, the vector autogressive approach and cointegration. Ways of
combining forecasts are also examined in detail. Part II considers
the most important applications of forecasting. Applications in
microeconomics include demand and sales forecasting, the use of
anticipations data, leading indicators and scenario analysis. In
macroeconomics the emphasis is on why errors occur in forecasting
asset market prices, including implications of the efficient
markets hypothesis for foreign markets, stock market prices and
commodity market prices. The book ends with a discussion of the
appropriateness of various techniques, recent developments in
forecasting, and the links between economic forecasting and
government policy.
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