A series of acute essays on the strange pseudoscience of predicting
the future. Sherden, himself a consultant to companies like
AT&T, here exposes the art of prediction as a skill not far
removed from the (usually) smaller knack of the lucky guess. His
targets begin with the relatively straightforward (weather
forecasting) and move on to the globally devious (economics). Where
cloudy skies are concerned, as he reminds us, forecasters are
rarely trustworthy; to announce that "the weather tomorrow will be
like the weather today" is statistically more accurate than even Al
Roker's most carefully considered opinion. With economic
forecasting, prediction seems much less reliable. A 1985 study by
the Economist reported that sanitation workers actually tied for
first place with heads of multinational finns as diviners of
England's economic growth. Where economic forecasters are
concerned, though they generate about $100 billion a year in
consulting fees, Sherden compares their techniques to those of an
ancient tribe worshiping the bull and the deer. He asserts that the
efficacy of the forecasters hasn't improved, though some of their
technology has. (Kodak and IBM, he notes, have dissolved their
in-house economics departments; Microsoft shuns economists
altogether.) But Sherden saves his best salvos for trend-predicters
like Faith Popcorn, who charges $20,000 for a year's subscription
to her monthly newsletter. He analyzes her most famous prophecy,
regarding yuppie "cocooning," and concludes that it simply didn't
happen: From 1989 to 1994, restaurants saw a 25 percent increase in
revenues, movie ticket sales rose 20 percent, and vacationing
increased by 21 percent, contradicting the notion that Americans
stayed home. He finishes off with a strongly worded discussion of
false prophecies - from Manifest Destiny to the Nazi myth of the
Aryan master race - that have cost nations human lives. Valuable
support for anyone who instinctively rejects Nostradamus. (Kirkus
Reviews)
"An ambitious, intelligent, and very readable guide to understanding our present and our future." —Harry Beckwith, Principal, Beckwith Advertising and Marketing and author of Selling the Invisible
No one can foretell the future. Or can they? There are many who purport to —and they are making a fortune. From meteorologists who give us our daily weather forecasts to investment advisers who project tomorrow's hottest stock, these and numerous other prognosticating professionals are part of a multibillion-dollar industry that's growing every day. No longer merely fortunetellers, they are fortune sellers, offering us a commodity we're more than eager to buy: the future.
In this piercing and provocative exposé, William Sherden, a seasoned consultant and expert on business forecasting, casts an unblinking eye on the booming business of predicting the future, from its major players to the ultimate validity and value of the information they proffer. Debunking false prophecy and analyzing assertions of forecasting skill, Sherden separates fact from fallacy to show us not only how best to use the forecasts we're given, but how to "select the nuggets of valuable future advice from amongst the $200 billion worth of mostly erroneous future predictions put forth each year."
The Fortune Sellers contains in-depth explorations of the seven most prevalent forecasting professions today —meteorology, economics, investments, technology assessment, demography, futurology, and organizational planning. As Sherden uncovers their historical roots and traces their track records, he deftly reveals just how accurate —or inaccurate —their predictions really are. Fascinating historical facts, scores of actual examples, and a wealth of eye-opening statistics illuminate the difference between reliable real-world information and spurious guesswork. In The Fortune Sellers, you'll discover how:
- Anyone who is counting on a weather forecast more than a day or two in advance might just as well flip a coin
- Economics earned its nickname —the "dismal science" —and why it sticks
- Profits from prediction work on Wall Street
- Academia, business, and the media feed our fascination with science fact and fiction and future technology
- Futurists —predictors of societal change —use the infirm foundations of social science to predict everything from utopia to techno-totalitarianism
- Prognosticators failed to predict many milestone events, including the stock market crash of 1929, the recession of the 1980s, and the fall of East Berlin.
An intriguing and utterly fascinating exploration of the methods and the madness of today's growing number of future "experts," The Fortune Sellers is not to be missed —and that's no speculation.
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