Two important new developments have occurred that have significant
impact on the evolution of econometrics, namely, the end of the
Cold War and the emergence of the information revolution in nearly
all economies of the world.
The information revolution has had significant effect on data
flows, making them much more timely, accessible, and descriptive of
more parts of the economy. At the same time, it has changed the
industrial structure of many economies, giving rise to increasing
importance of the tertiary sectors (e.g. services). The new
generation of hardware and software enables econometricians to
handle larger and more complex problems, especially those that are
data intensive and computer intrusive.
These major events require reconsideration and redrafting of
some of the materials of the original edition.
The present volume retains the original structure of "Lectures
on Microeconomic Theory" and takes up principles of constructing
dynamic macroeconometric models and their use in economic analyses
and forecasting, while introducing many updates, revisions and
extensions. The description of the econometric methodology has been
limited to specific applications of time series analysis, and the
title has been changed to "Principles of Macroeconometric
Modeling."
The first four chapters discuss the principles of specifying
equations of structural macromodels, covering both developed marked
economies, transition economies and world-wide models. The
remaining chapters cover some major issues in the use of
macromodels. The point of departure is model simulation, especially
of the prevailing non-linear models, which is followed by model
validation. The analysis of model dynamics covers economic
fluctuations and the relevant implications of non-stationarity. The
use of macromodels in policy analysis is presented next; it
includes multiplier analysis and scenario simulations. The
monograph ends up with forecasting being a special case of
simulation analysis.
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