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Books > Social sciences > Politics & government
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Forecasting China's Future - Dominance or collapse? (Hardcover)
Loot Price: R4,628
Discovery Miles 46 280
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Forecasting China's Future - Dominance or collapse? (Hardcover)
Series: Routledge Contemporary China Series
Expected to ship within 12 - 19 working days
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China's future development is likely to have a huge impact on
twenty-first century global outcomes. It is therefore surprising
that, thus far, so little attention has been given to comparing and
evaluating expert forecasts of China's future in the post-Mao era.
This book presents an illuminating and comprehensive summary record
of contrasting and competing expert forecasts and judgements about
the major issues confronting China within four principal domains -
political, economic, environmental, and international. After
considering the principal forecasting methods available to experts,
the author comments critically on the degree of success achieved in
using those methods and emphasises the confusion created by the
polarisation of opinion and by the failure of many experts to
accept the high degree of uncertainty that characterises most of
the key issues. The book recommends a new approach based on the
study of a hierarchy of critical uncertainties and on continuing
analysis of opposing expert opinions about these uncertainties. It
emphasises the potential for both positive and negative outcomes
for these critical uncertainties, and the importance of maximising
the potential for positive outcomes through improved analytical and
policy frameworks. Providing insights for specialists and
non-specialists into the most critical issues that will determine
China's future direction, this book will be of particular interest
to students and scholars of political, economic, environmental, and
international relations issues in China and Asia, as well as to
readers in business and government.
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