We began this research with the objective of applying Bayesian
methods of analysis to various aspects of economic theory. We were
attracted to the Bayesian approach because it seemed the best
analytic framework available for dealing with decision making under
uncertainty, and the research presented in this book has only
served to strengthen our belief in the appropriateness and
usefulness of this methodology. More specif ically, we believe that
the concept of organizational learning is funda mental to decision
making under uncertainty in economics and that the Bayesian
framework is the most appropriate for developing that concept. The
central and unifying theme of this book is decision making under
uncertainty in microeconomic theory. Our fundamental aim is to
explore the ways in which firms and households make decisions and
to develop models that have a strong empirical connection. Thus, we
have attempted to contribute to economic theory by formalizing
models of the actual pro cess of decision making under uncertainty.
Bayesian methodology pro vides the appropriate vehicle for this
formalization."
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